Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Samuel Tombs

7 May 2025 US Monitor FOMC to remain non-committal on the 2025 rate outlook

  • Markets have relaxed and the economy is holding up, so the FOMC needn’t signal a June easing today.
  • The FOMC will have two more CPI reports and news on reciprocal tariffs if it waits until July.
  • The latest trade data suggest pre-tariff stockpiling was very limited outside of a couple of sectors.
Samuel TombsUS

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, US, April, 2025

  • In one line: Headline index steady in April; but a lot of pain lies ahead.
Samuel TombsGlobal

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, April

Headline index steady in April; but a lot of pain lies ahead.

Samuel TombsUS

5 May 2025 US Monitor Uncertainty over tariffs hasn't killed jobs yet, but their imposition will hurt

  • Tariff uncertainty supported payrolls in April, by temporarily boosting the logistics and retail sectors...
  • ...But hiring intentions have weakened and a sharp decline in activity in the logistics sector is in train.
  • We’re pushing back our forecast for Fed easing to July, from June, but we still expect 75bp this year.
Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending / Pending Home Sales

Growth in services spending has slowed only modestly, but a sharper decline lies ahead.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US ECI / ADP Employment

The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US ECI / ADP Employment

The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US JOLTS, March

The post-election pick-up in labor demand has fully unwound.

Samuel TombsUS
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Keywords for: Publications

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence