Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economist)
- Taiwan's retail sales growth finally rebounded, to +0.4% in August, after months of constant falls.
- This was supported by a milder drop in auto sales, which could recover if a US trade deal is agreed.
- All told, still-weak consumption reflects flat wages,a soft property market and slumping tourism.
- Taiwan's central bank kept the discount rate at 2.000% yesterday, which was no surprise to anyone.
- Economic growth is likely to be much stronger in Q3; we have upgraded our forecast to 8.4%.
- Strong export growth is reducing the need for a rate cut, notwithstanding weak consumption.
- Emerging Asian countries have announced national strategies to enter the semiconductor market.
- We think they will be unlikely to gain a meaningful foothold in manufacturing semiconductors.
- If they play to their strengths, however, they could attract capital to other parts of the supply chain.
- Taiwan is experiencing a boom in demand for its electronics, namely semiconductors and AI servers.
- These are key components in the large data centres being built by Big Tech firms in the AI arms race.
- Taiwanese exports are likely to stay strong if Big Tech continues with its capex plans.
- Taiwanese GDP growth rose to 8.0% in Q2, from 5.5%, driven by extremely strong exports…
- …Other components were basically non-existent; investment suffered a sharp slowdown.
- Exports may not be driven purely by front-loading, as genuine demand exists for chips, thanks to AI.
