Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economist)
- In one line: Still somewhat resilient to the Middle East shock.
Inflation risks seems to have passed in Malaysia
Export growth soars, once again
- In one line: A hold, as widely expected.
- Malaysian exports soared more than most analysts were expecting, as growth hit 45.3% in May…
- …Electronics exports and petroleum export revenue growth is likely to moderate in the coming quarters.
- We think inflation has peaked, as it rose to just 2.0% in May, below the 2.1% consensus.
Singapore's NODX growth reaches a new high
Malaysian spending feels the impact of the Middle East shock
- Two Malaysian states are now holding elections, thus raising calls for a general election...
- ...and implying changes to fuel subsidies or an expansion of the tax base are likely off the table.
- This probably won’t move bond yields, but it reduces fiscal headroom and damages credibility.
- Taiwan’s exports destroyed calls for stable growth, soaring by 51.7% in May, despite the Iran war.
- We are upgrading our full-year GDP growth forecast to 9.6%, even higher than 2025’s pace.
- Inflation breached the CBC’s 2% “red line” in May, but we are still not expecting a discount rate hike.
- In one line: Still resilient to Middle East shock.
Brace for more eye-wateringly strong export growth in Malaysia.
Unsurprising up-tick in Malaysian inflation.
- Non-oil domestic export growth in Singapore smashed expectations in April, hitting 24.5%...
- …Thanks to continued growth in electronics exports, but also other random unexpected spikes.
- Malaysian CPI ticked up slightly in April, but the more important core inflation moderated.
- Malaysia may be heading for an early election, but beneath the surface ethnic tensions are brewing.
- These tensions are coupled with rising religious conservatism, particularly among Malaysia’s youth.
- Governance is likely to become more religious, to fend off Islamist parties, hurting long-term growth.
- Malaysia retail sales growth moderated slightly in March but remained robust in Q1 overall.
- This was before the onset of the Middle East crisis though, which will hang over Q2 sales.
- This pressure will be compounded by the government’s gradual withdrawal of fuel subsidies.
Another quarter of lacklustre consumption in Malaysia
- In one line: Moderating; finally.
- In one line: Potentially the peak.
- In one line: No surprises.
- In one line: No surprises.
- In one line: Smashing expectations, again.
