Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: Easing borrowing costs drive car registrations higher in February.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP to fall 0.1% month-to-month in January, as consumers stayed away from the pub.
- Manufacturing output should also unwind from the sharp increase seen in December.
- We continue to look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q1, but downside risks are building.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The catastrophic PMI jobs balance suggests the UK is heading into recession.
- But the PMI exaggerates weakness by measuring the breadth rather than extent of job changes.
- Disinflation is over as the PMI shows firms passing payroll tax hikes and strong wages into prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to stay at 3.0% in February, 0.2pp higher than the MPC’s forecast.
- Food inflation should remain firm, while BRC non-food shop prices are rising faster than in 2024.
- We now expect CPI inflation to peak at 3.8% in September; 4.0%-plus is possible.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers are spending again but uncertainty hits investment.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Surging global uncertainty hammers manufacturing output, but watch rising price pressures.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The rise in credit-card borrowing in January points to consumers recovering from October Budget wobbles.
- Increasing mortgage approvals for house purchase signal a broad-based revival in buyer interest.
- But falling finance raised suggests business investment has been hit hard by uncertainty.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices rise again in February, but watch for a slowdown after April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- High and rising global economic policy uncertainty has hit business investment hard.
- But consumer spending is recovering from an autumn wobble, so GDP growth can improve in 2025.
- Inflation will peak at 3.7% in September, allowing the MPC to cut only twice more this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
