Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- Collapsing job growth in the November DMP survey leaves a December rate cut nailed on.
- But the DMP was sampled at the height of Budget chaos so will likely improve in December.
- The DMP shows wage and price disinflation is over for now, so the MPC will still have to be cautious.
- Our models indicate that the PMI is consistent with quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1% in Q4.
- But the upward revision from the flash PMI suggests sentiment improved as the Budget became clearer.
- So, we see a decent chance of the PMI improving further in December.
- We expect manufacturing output to rebound in October, as car factories reopened after a cyber attack.
- Growth in consumer-facing services will ease as pre-Budget worries creep into activity.
- Underlying economic activity is still holding up close to trend, so spare capacity is emerging only slowly.
- Consumers added to their savings and took on less credit in October, as the Budget approached.
- Bank lending to firms continues to rise year-over-year, but net external finance raised by PNFCs dropped.
- The housing-market data remain solid; mortgage approvals eased only slightly and transactions rose.
- In one line: Lower 2026 inflation, but delayed fiscal consolidation lacks credibility and gives the MPC little reason to cut 2-year ahead inflation forecast.
- The Chancellor is gambling on the MPC cutting rates rapidly, but the Budget provides little reason to do so.
- We think gilts are ripe for a sell-off as the market digests the details of shaky Budget plans.
- This week’s data releases will show a only small hit to activity from months of pre-Budget speculation.
