Pantheon Publications
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
GROWTH AND INFLATION RISKS SHIFT DOWN...
- …BUT WE STILL THINK INFLATION WILL PROVE STICKY
- In one line: Downside news focused in volatile items and partly driven by early discounting, while underlying inflation pressures remained firm.
- In one line:Budget chaos hits retail sales, but arguably by less than might have been feared.
- In one line: Weak house price inflation in October means we cut our Q4 forecast.
- In one line:Fiscal plans rest on shaky foundations.
- In one line: A post-Budget sigh of relief from consumers, and sentiment has further to rise.
- In one line: Cautious cut, we see one more in April, but it will be another closely fought decision.
- The MPC squeezed in a fourth rate cut for 2025 in response to weak wage, growth and inflation data.
- But rate-setters suggested limited room for more cuts, surprising the market hawkishly.
- We expect one more cut in April now, but that could easily be knocked off course by stubborn wages.
- In one line: Activity should continue to rise in Q1 2026.
- In one line: Budget chaos hits job growth, but pay growth remains strong nonetheless so the MPC will have to be cautious.
- In one line:Some of the downside was noise and will unwind, but GDP will now do well to rise 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4.
- In one line: The trade balance should improve in November as erratic falls unwind and goods exports rise.
- An MPC interest rate cut today is beyond doubt after inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast by 20bp.
- We add an April rate cut to our forecast too, although that is a finely balanced call still…
- ...Because underlying inflation pressure remains much firmer than the headline inflation drop suggests.
- Chaos running up to the November Budget hit hiring, but by less than payrolls suggest.
- Payrolls will be revised better, vacancies are rising, and jobless claims are down on a year earlier.
- The MPC has enough evidence to cut on Thursday, but stubborn pay growth will keep it cautious.
- GDP disappointed expectations, falling 0.1% month-to-month in October, as services output fell sharply.
- Autos production will boost activity in November, and a number of erratic falls should rebound...
- This week’s data have a high bar to keep the MPC on hold, but little room remains to keep cutting in 2026.
- A food-price drop and tobacco-duty base effects should lower CPI inflation to 3.5% in November.
- We are tracking a chunky hotel-price rise, while a large airfares base effect will drop out of the figures...
- …So, we look for CPI services inflation to increase to 4.7% in November, from 4.5% in October.
- In one line: Signs of stubborn wage growth despite weak jobs are widespread.
In one line: Budget circus hits sentiment, which can recover now the event has passed.
In one line: Catastrophic PMI saying conditions are as bad as during a full lockdown is hard to take at face value, but risks clearly lie towards output falls now.
- In one line: Pre-Budget chaos drags on consumer spending.
