Pantheon Publications

UK Datanote: Final PMI, November 2025

In one line: Budget circus hits sentiment, which can recover now the event has passed. 

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, November 2025

In one line: Catastrophic PMI saying conditions are as bad as during a full lockdown is hard to take at face value, but risks clearly lie towards output falls now.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, November 2025

• In one line: Pre-Budget chaos drags on consumer spending.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Price Index, November 2025

• In one line: House price inflation should accelerate slightly now that the Budget is behind us. 

UK Datanote: UK Money & Credit, October 2025

• In one line: The money and credit data suggests few pre-Budget worries in October.

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, November 2025

• In one line: Holding up well in the face of chaotic Budget speculation through November.

UK Datanote: UK Budget, November 2025

• In one line: Lower 2026 inflation, but delayed fiscal consolidation lacks credibility and gives the MPC little reason to cut 2-year ahead inflation forecast.

UK Datanote: UK Flash PMIs, November 2025

• In one line: Dovish even if the PMI overreacts to politics, so a December rate cut is even more likely.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, October 2025

• In one line: Enough for a December cut, but also enough to keep the MPC cautious about the pace of subsequent cuts.

UK Datanote: UK Official House Price Index, September 2025

• In one line: Tax-hike speculation to continue dragging on house prices in Q4.

UK Datanote: UK GDP September 2025

• In one line:Weak growth seals a December rate cut, but be careful because underlying growth is better than the headline.

UK Datanote: UK International Trade, September 2025

• In one line: Car production shutdown tanks exports, but that will unwind in October and November.

UK Datanote: UK Report on Jobs Survey, October 2025

• In one line: REC survey shows stabilising jobs market, suggesting weak official payrolls will be revised better.

UK Datanote: UK RICS Residential Market Survey, October 2025

• In one line: The spectacle of months of tax speculation takes its toll, but house price inflation should recover after the Budget.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, October 2025

• In one line: Fiscal worries begin to weigh on consumer spending.

UK Datanote: UK MPC Decision and Minutes, November 2025

• In one line: Dovish hold, so we are comfortable with our call for a December cut. 

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, October 2025

• In one line: Firms brush off Budget uncertainty, and steady growth should keep the MPC on hold.

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, October 2025

• In one line: Predictable correction after the strongest September in five years, the underlying trend is up.

UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, October 2025

• In one line: Reopening after the cyber attack boosts the manufacturing PMI, but the outlook remains challenging.

UK Datanote: UK Money & Credit, September 2025

• In one line: Rising mortgage approvals and solid credit flows suggest confident consumers.