Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)

24 October 2025 US Monitor Are payrolls a more reliable cyclical guide than GDP

  • Payroll trends have consistently been a good guide to the economy’s momentum in the past. 
  • Job growth often responds far more quickly at major turning points than contemperaneous GDP. 
  • The current near-stagnation in job gains is alarming, despite the relatively healthy economic activity data.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, September 2025

Rock-bottom response rate casts doubt over reliability.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, October 2025

Shutdown hit limited for now, but strong headwinds remain.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, September 2025

An unreliable guide to growth in services spending.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, September 2025

Manufacturing is going nowhere fast.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, US, September, 2025

  • In one line: Manufacturing is going nowhere fast.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, September 2025

Far from definitive.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, September 2025

Worsening job availability points to a further rise in the unemployment rate.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, August 2025

Lower mortgage rates start to lend a hand.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
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independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence