Pantheon Publications

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, April 2026

Too unreliable to bank on a labor market upturn.

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, February/March 2026

Soft sales and high inventory point to price cuts and a drop in housing starts.

5 May 2026 US Monitor The AI boom won't prop up the economy all by itself

• Tech capex is booming, but not all of this spending is AI-related, and much is spent on imports. 
• We think the direct boost to GDP growth from AI investment likely is running at only around 0.2pp. 
• Consumers’ spending and non-tech investment are weak, and are in need of more policy support. 

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, US, April 2026

In one line: Prices index likely sending a false alarm.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, April 2026

Prices index likely sending a false alarm.

PM Datanote: US Advance GDP, Q1

Growth outside of the tech sector already was anemic ahead of the energy shock.

Global Datanote: Advance GDP, US, Q1 2026

In one line: Growth outside of the tech sector already was anemic ahead of the energy shock.

PM Datanote: US Advance Economic Indicators, March 2026

Q1 GDP now on track for sub-2% growth.

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, April 2026

Spending growth probably still slowing, labor market still weak.

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, April 2026

Core services inflation unlikely to accelerate sharply.

21 April 2026 US Monitor Rising earnings expectations don't guarantee a stronger economy

• S&P 500 earnings expectations often are wrong-footed by big surprises in the economy’s performance.
• The earnings of large companies also have only a loose relationship with broader economic growth. 
• The recent upturn in expected EPS mostly reflects booming AI capex and higher commodity prices.

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, March 2026

A mediocre end to Q1, but the surveys look promising.

PM Datanote: US Empire State Manufacturing Survey, April 2026

Early signs of a manufacturing margins squeeze.

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, April 2026

Fallout from the war adding to the pressures on homebuilders.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, March 2026

Small business capex plans drop to a post-GFC low.

16 April 2026 US Monitor Solid March sales likely to obscure the mounting consumer headwinds

• A huge leap in nominal sales of gasoline likely meant a strong March headline retail sales print.
• Core sales probably also were supported by big tax refunds and unseasonably warm weather.
• We still expect the hit to real incomes from higher gas prices to mean a weak Q2 for consumers.

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, March 2026

Sales going nowhere fast.

14 April 2026 US Monitor GDP likely rose at a sub-2% pace in Q1, after just 0.5% in Q4

• The data available so far point to GDP growth a bit below 2% in the first quarter.
• Consumption was soft and net trade was a big drag, but government spending rebounded.
• Residual seasonality probably explains only a fraction of the slow underlying momentum last quarter.

PM Datanote: US Michigan Consumer Survey, April 2026

Further reason to expect a consumer slowdown.

PM Datanote: US Personal Incomes & Spending, February 2026

Consumption already weak before the energy shock.