Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)
- Both candidates in the presidential election have committed to a KRW30T fiscal plan to boost the economy.
- May’s export growth was not as weak as it appeared; WDA monthly and annual growth were positive.
- Still, tariff and trade-policy uncertainty will continue to weigh on Korea’s GDP growth in 2025.
- The Bank of Korea cut rates to 2.50% in May; board members’ decision was unanimous.
- Weaker growth and lingering uncertainty over trade were likely the factors driving this month’s cut.
- The stronger KRW gave the BoK a window to ease, and a July Fed cut would allow another 25bp cut this year.
- Japan’s composite PMI dipped below 50 in May, led by rapidly slowing services and a drop in manufacturing.
- That said, US importers rushed to order goods ahead of the tariff reprieve expiring, offsetting falls in output.
- The BoJ will hold rates as it assesses the outcome of negotiations and their impact on the economy.
- CHINA MORE RESPONSIVE TO FALTERING GROWTH THIS YEAR
- JAPAN’S STUMBLING GROWTH A REASON FOR BOJ CAUTION
- BOK SET TO RESUME RATE CUTS IN MAY
- Korea saw improvements in early trade data for May, with exports falling at a slower pace.
- Japan’s export growth in April was hit by US tariffs on foreign cars and steel products.
- The BoK will resume easing to offset tariff impacts; the BoJ will pause rate hikes and assess negotiations.
- Japan’s GDP shrank more than the market expected in Q1, and for the first time in a year.
- Weak services exports were to blame; consumption was hit by fragile confidence and high inflation.
- The BoJ will hold rate s for the time being, as it mulls the outcome of talks and assesses its effects.
- China’s broad credit growth rose in April, driven primarily by faster issuance of government bonds.
- The widening M2-M1 gap signifies persistent deflation pressure and subdued economic activity.
- Uncertainty over the outcome of talks will weigh on the economy, despite the recent US-China trade truce.
- China continues to suffer from deflation, amid falling commodity prices and trade disruption.
- Consumer core inflation remains subdued; producer prices for some export-related goods have fallen.
- The US–China tariff reprieve is growth-positive, but the outcome of negotiations remains highly uncertain.
- China reportedly plans to improve its housing model by banning pre-sale housing.
- The move would allow the authorities to control the supply of housing better, stabilising prices.
- China’s foreign reserves rose on the back of a bigger revaluation effect, thanks to the weaker USD in April.
- Behind-the-scenes diplomacy has set the stage for Sino-US trade dialogue.
- We expect the bilateral relationship to thaw as internal pressure forces both to the negotiating table.
- Korea fast-tracks US trade talks as tariffs weaken exports and drive industrial activity to a 31-month low.
