Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Duncan Wrigley
In one line: Retail sales weakened further; FAI data plagued by falsification issues again; Industrial output supported by exports
- China’s May retail sales dropped 0.6%, the worst since December 2022, reflecting trade-in subsidy payback.
- Fixed-asset investment still appears weak, but the data are plagued by another round of falsification issues.
- Manufacturing output is being propped up by exports; but further targeted support for demand is likely in July.
- The BoJ could raise the policy rate at today’s meeting, going by a news report and less war uncertainty.
- China’s PPI rebound is a cost-push story; reflation pace is likely to ease a tad as a peace deal is struck.
- Given positive changes in both consumer and producer prices so far, Q2’s GDP deflator might now be positive.
- China’s broad credit growth slowed further in May, indicative of sluggish credit demand.
- The fiscal deposit drawdown points to construction activity likely rebounding in May.
- The producer inflation rise is cost-push and unlikely to turn into high consumer inflation, given weak demand.
In one line: Shipments of integrated circuits and computers main drivers of export growth
Crude oil import volume falling
- China’s May export growth surged on the back of chip exports, largely thanks to higher prices.
- Shipments to non-traditional markets are more than offsetting falling trade with the US.
- Oil import volumes dropped again, as refiners responded to crushed margins by curbing output.
In one line: Regular wage growth rose above 3% for three straight months
Consumption activity rebounded in April
- Japanese consumer spending surged in April, albeit mainly due to tax changes that spurred light truck sales.
- Solid real wage growth is partly cushioning consumers from energy worries, however.
- Governor Ueda hinted on Wednesday at a June rate hike, stressing inflation risks over growth risks.
In one line: Korea inflation rise in May makes July hike likely
- China’s urban-renewal plan has unduly excited stock investors; it implies a modest boost for home demand…
- …The focus is urban investment, unlike the resettlement policy, which directly creates demand.
- New BoK Governor Shin on Monday again signalled a likely rate hike; May inflation surged on energy costs.
- China’s May PMIs point to a short-term improvement in construction and manufacturing.
- Still, Q2 average industrial output growth is likely to be below 5%, raising the chances of targeted support.
- Domestic demand remains sluggish, with petrol-car sales almost halving year-over-year in May.
In one line: BoJ won't be swayed by Tokyo inflation dip
- The new BoK Governor, Mr. Shin, is signalling a rate hike, likely as soon as July, worried about financial risks.
- Korea’s resurgent semiconductor exports out weigh the growth risk from higher energy costs.
- The BoJ is likely to raise the policy rate on June 16, despite Tokyo inflation slowing in May.
- In one line: New Governor Shin signals rate hikes are on the way
In one line: BoK stays put today but new Governor Shin signals rate hikes on the way
- Chinese youth unemployment is hovering near historic highs, with AI only the latest factor weighing on hiring.
- We estimate the 10pp rise in youth unemployment since 2018 has knocked around 0.5pp off GDP growth.
- Still, China’s pursuit of AI as a critical growth engine aligns with public excitement and trust in AI.
- In one line: Japan's inflation slowed in April, but that probably won't dissuade the BoJ from hiking
In one line: Japan's slowing inflation probably won't dissuade the BoJ from hiking rates next month
- Japan’s finance minister said the government would aim to limit new bond issuance for the extra budget.
- The BoJ will likely look past slowing inflation in April, given the prospect of rising imported energy costs.
- Renewed currency weakness is likely to be the final straw, pushing the BoJ to a rate hike in June.
- In one line: On hold despite April slowdown
