Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)
In one line: Growth slows but Spain still outperforming.
In one line: Lending standards tightened again, but demand for loans is still rising, just.
In one line: Italian GDP growth will pick up in Q4; Inflation expectations stabilising at a high level.
- The ECB BLS showed banks tightened lending standards in Q3, boding ill for capex and spending…
- ...But these downbeat messages can safely be ignored, given other survey data.
- The first business survey for Italy for October suggests growth there is picking up, as in Germany.
In one line: Still pointing to decent growth alongside credit figures
- Lending to the private sector is slowing at the margin but underlying momentum remains solid…
- ...Our measure of the credit impulse points to EZ GDP growth of around 0.5% q/q in Q4.
- Germany’s IFO survey adds to the message from the PMI that a rebound there will lead the way in Q4.
In one line: Driven higher by pick up in German activity.
In one line: Driven higher by pick up in German activity.
In one line: Here comes the turn in Germany.
In one line: Here comes the turn in Germany.
In one line: On the up, but still subdued.
- The EZ general government budget deficit held steady in Q2, as revenue and expenditure both rose.
- It is likely growing now, as Germany has started to spend more earnestly, and will widen again next year.
- The EZ deficit will likely rise to 3.5% of GDP this year, 3.8% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027, from 3.1% in 2024.
- GDP in Germany and Italy likely improved relative to Q2, but growth in France and Spain probably fell.
- EZ GDP growth is likely to have held steady, at just 0.1% quarter-to-quarter.
- Q4 is set to be a touch better, as the drag from net trade fades, thanks to falling imports.
In one line: Significant back revisions mean Q3 was likely better than Q2.
In one line: Narrowing further; drag from goods trade on GDP eased in Q3.
- Trade figures indicate a significant dampening effect on EZ goods trade from US trade tariff hikes.
- The data show few signs of trade diversion and/or re-routing from China, but some price cuts.
- The EZ trade surplus will widen further to year-end, and the drag from goods trade on GDP will fade.
In one line: Down sharply; unsurprising given drop in German output.
In one line: Investors think things will get worse before they get better in Germany.
In one line: Falling imports boost surplus.
- Italy’s deficit will shrink this year but still exceed the EU’s 3%-of-GDP limit and the government’s target.
- Its 2026 budget plans are mildly expansionary, including a cut to taxes for middle-income earners…
- ...while little consensus on offsetting revenue-raising measures exists among the coalition.
