Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

8 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor Construction PMI rise still under-estimating growth in the sector

  • The EZ construction PMI rose in April, on the back of a recovery in new orders in Germany. 
  • Construction activity is still faring better in Italy than in Germany or France. 
  • The sector is likely to support EZ GDP in Q2, as it seems to have done in Q1.

6 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor Soft headline inflation will pave the way for a 1.75% depo-rate by July

  • Jump in April core inflation was due to Easter effects in services; the remaining components were soft.
  • Dovish forecasts from the ECB will pave the way for for a back-to-back 25bp rate cut next month…
  • …and we now look for an additional 25bp cut in July, but also hikes next year, in June and September.

Global Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, April 2025 & Unemployment, Eurozone, March 2025

In one line: Inflation held steady, but declines are coming; we are adding a July ECB rate cut. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, April 2025 & Unemployment, Eurozone, March 2025

In one line: Inflation held steady, but declines are coming; we are adding a July ECB rate cut. 

2 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor Trade uncertainty is now weighing on Eurozone investment

  • We now think EZ investment is falling, mainly due to sustained weakness in machinery and equipment. 
  • Leading indicators for construction and services capex look solid, at least before the tariff shock. 
  • Surveys point to downside risks for inventories in H1, but brace for significant volatility this year.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, EZ, Q1 2025

In one line: GDP growth pick up in Q1 will prove short-lived as trade uncertainty hits. 

EZ Datanote: ESI, EZ, April 2025

In one line: Down but pointing to higher inflation expectations.

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Confidence, Italy, April 2025

In one line: Business sentiment sours on pessimism in services.  

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Spain, Q1 2025 & Advance Inflation, Spain, April 2025

In one line: Growth slowed but remained solid; Inflation comes in below expectations.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Spain, March 2025

In one line: In line with our view that consumer spending growth is now slowing.

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, April 2025

In one line: Lifted by tariff front-running, still pointing to downside risks to growth. 

EZ Datanote: Trade & construction, EZ, February 2025

In one line: Don’t show Donald Trump the trade charts; Construction down but still defied surveys in Q1

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, April 2025

In one line: As in France, domestic demand is rattled by tariff concerns and PMI shows clear signs of tariff front-running.

25 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor Near-real-time data paint an encouraging picture for early Q2

  • Most near-real-time consumers’ spending indicators suggest it is holding up well in April. 
  • The trade war also hasn’t hit job postings, while Google searches for ‘unemployment’ are down. 
  • Leading indicators on production, meanwhile, reflect greater activity, boosted by tariff front-running.

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, France, April 2025

In one line: Fastest fall in demand for services since Covid pulls down the headline.

24 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor PMIs sink as domestic demand falters; EZ-US trade surplus jumps

  • Soft April PMIs signal downside risk to our Q2 GDP call, but we still think tariff front-running will help. 
  • Demand for services is retreating, confirming that trade uncertainty is weighing on domestic demand. 
  • Manufacturing is holding the fort for now, with new orders recovering thanks to tariff front-running.
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independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence