Pantheon Publications

10 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ wage growth will remain sticky throughout our forecast horizon

• EZ compensation per employee growth slowed in Q1, in line with easing negotiated wage growth. 
• Other measures out in the coming days are likely to also show slower wage growth in Q1. 
• We suspect wage growth will now plateau in the 2.5%-to-3.0% range, remaining historically high.

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP/Retail Sales, Eurozone, Q1 2025/April 2025

In one line: Fastest growth in eleven quarters thanks to tariff-front-running-led jump in Irish GDP.

EZ Datanote: Construction PMIs, Eurozone, May 2025

In one line: PMI still paints a picture of underlying weakness in construction. 

PM Datatnote: Industrial Production, Spain, April 2025

In one line: A rough start to Q2; little sign of tariff front running supporting industry.  

Global Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, May 2025

In one line: Below zero; brace for a 50bp cut from the SNB.

3 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor Swiss and Italian economies set to slow over the coming quarters

• The 0.3% increase in Italian GDP in Q1 was driven by both domestic demand and net trade. 
• In Switzerland, it was just domestic demand that pushed GDP up by a whopping 0.8% on the quarter. 
• Growth is now slowing in both economies, though risks to our H2 calls are likely to the upside.

PM Datatnote: GDP & PMI, Switzerland, Q1/May 2025

In one line: Switzerland was on a tear before the tariff shock; surveys point to slower growth in Q2.