U.S. Key Issues
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The monthly survey of small businesses conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business is quite sensitive to short-term movements in the stock market, so we're expecting an increase in the November reading, due today.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We were terrified by the plunge in the ISM manufacturing export orders index in August and September, which appeared to point to a 2008-style meltdown in trade flows.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The weaker is the economy over the next few months, the more likely it is that Mr. Trump blinks and removes some--perhaps even all--the tariffs on Chinese imports.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Markets clearly love the idea that the "Phase One" trade deal with China will be signed soon, at a location apparently still subject to haggling between the parties.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Tariffs are a tax on imported goods, and higher taxes depress growth, other things equal.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The New York Times called the China trade agreement reached Friday "half a deal", but that's absurdly generous.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Net foreign trade was a drag on GDP growth in the second quarter, subtracting 0.7 percentage points from the headline number.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Small business sentiment and activity, as reported by the NFIB survey, has recovered exactly half the drop triggered by the rollover in stock prices in the fourth quarter. This matters, because most people work at small firms, which are responsible for the vast bulk of net job growth.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 summit was as good as we expected.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Yesterday's raft of data had no net impact on our forecast for second quarter GDP growth, which we still think will be about 21⁄4%.... More by Ian Shepherdson
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