U.S. Key Issues
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We continue to expect core CPI inflation to drift up further over the course of this year, partly because of adverse base effects running through November, but it's hard to expect a serious acceleration in the monthly run rate when the rate of increase of unit labor costs is so low.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, but as usual after a widely-anticipated policy decision, most of our attention will be focused on what policymakers say about their actions, and how their views on the economy have changed.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We'd be quite surprised if the headline payroll number today turned out to be far from the consensus, 205K, or our forecast, 225K.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Given the light flow of data this week we want to go back for a closer look at the market-shattering January hourly earnings data.... More by Ian Shepherdson
To be clear, the 2.9% year-over-year increase in headline hourly earnings in January does not restore the prior relationship between the rate of growth of nominal wages and measures of labor market tightness.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We aren't perturbed by the undershoot in December payrolls, relative both to the October and November numbers and all the leading indicators.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The shortfall in nominal wage growth, relative to measures of labor market tightness, remains the single biggest mystery of this business cycle.... More by Ian Shepherdson
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