U.S. Key Issues

Trade and Taxes are Bifurcating the Economy

7 June 2019 Job Gains Likely Slowed Sharply in May, but will Recover

In the wake of Wednesday's ADP report, showing a mere 27K increase in private payrolls, we cut our payroll forecast to 100K.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily Download

6 June 2019 Even GOP Senators have Limits Tariffs on Mexico Cross the Line

The pushback from within the President's own party against the proposed tariffs on Mexican imports has been strong; perhaps strong enough either to prevent the tariffs via Congressional action, or by persuading Mr. Trump that the idea is a losing proposition.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily Download

5 June 2019 The Fed will Ease if Trade Makes the Sky Fall in Otherwise, Patience

Fed Chair Powell yesterday said about as little as he could without appearing to ignore the turmoil in markets since the President announced his intention to apply tariffs to imports from Mexico: "We are closely monitoring the implications of these developments for the U.S. economic outlook and, as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective."... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily Download

4 June 2019 Two Problems for the Fed: What to Expect, and What to Do

The Fed is in a double bind.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily Download

3 June 2019 Trade is Now Trump's Weapon for Everything, but it Shoots Backwards

The chance of a self-inflicted, unnecessary weakening in the economy this year, and perhaps even a recession, has increased markedly in the wake of the president's announcement on Friday that tariffs will be applied to all imports from Mexico, from June 10.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Weekly Download

30 May 2019 More Pain Before the Gain Will Markets Force Trump to the Table

The trade war with China is not big enough or bad enough alone to push the U.S. economy into recession.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily Download

29 May 2019 Will Consumers Save Less this Year, in Order to Spend More

While businesses--and farmers--fret over the damage already wrought by the trade war with China and the further pain to come, consumers are remarkably happy.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily Download

23 May 2019 Patience to Persist FOMC Members Content to Wait for Developments

It's hard to read the minutes of the April 30/May 1 FOMC meeting as anything other than a statement of the Fed's intent to do nothing for some time yet.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily Download

17 May 2019 The China-led Industrial Downturn is Ending, Trade War Permitting

Evidence in support of our view that the U.S. industrial slowdown is ending continues to mount, though nothing is yet definitive and the re-escalation of the trade war is a threat of uncertain magnitude to the incipient upturn.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily Download