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U.S. Key Issues
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

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U.S. Key Issues

Trade and Taxes are Bifurcating the Economy

9 July 2019 Did the Rising China Tariffs and the Mexico Threat Scare Small Firms?

Small business sentiment and activity, as reported by the NFIB survey, has recovered exactly half the drop triggered by the rollover in stock prices in the fourth quarter. This matters, because most people work at small firms, which are responsible for the vast bulk of net job growth.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

1 July 2019 Trade Talks Back on, this Time, Expect a Deal, Both Sides Need One

The outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 summit was as good as we expected.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

27 June 2019 Orders, Trade and Inventory Data Suggest Q2 Growth Headed for 21⁄4%

Yesterday's raft of data had no net impact on our forecast for second quarter GDP growth, which we still think will be about 21⁄4%.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

21 June 2019 Dealing with the "Delay Suits Both" Theories of China Trade

We've had pushback from readers over our take on the likelihood of a trade deal with China in the near future.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

20 June 2019 All Eyes on Osaka, if the Trade Talks Succeed, the Fed Won't Ease in July

The tone of Fed Chair Powell's opening comments at the press conference yesterday was much more dovish than the statement, which did little more than most analysts expected.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

17 June 2019 Peak Trade War Might Already be Past, but Strong Nerves Needed

When economic historians look back at the bizarre trade war of 2018-to-19, we think they will see Tuesday June 4 as the turning point, after which the threats of fire and brimstone were taken much less seriously, and markets began to ponder life after tariffs.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

7 June 2019 Job Gains Likely Slowed Sharply in May, but will Recover

In the wake of Wednesday's ADP report, showing a mere 27K increase in private payrolls, we cut our payroll forecast to 100K.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

6 June 2019 Even GOP Senators have Limits Tariffs on Mexico Cross the Line

The pushback from within the President's own party against the proposed tariffs on Mexican imports has been strong; perhaps strong enough either to prevent the tariffs via Congressional action, or by persuading Mr. Trump that the idea is a losing proposition.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

5 June 2019 The Fed will Ease if Trade Makes the Sky Fall in Otherwise, Patience

Fed Chair Powell yesterday said about as little as he could without appearing to ignore the turmoil in markets since the President announced his intention to apply tariffs to imports from Mexico: "We are closely monitoring the implications of these developments for the U.S. economic outlook and, as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective."... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

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