U.S. Key Issues
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We'd be quite surprised if the headline payroll number today turned out to be far from the consensus, 205K, or our forecast, 225K.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Given the light flow of data this week we want to go back for a closer look at the market-shattering January hourly earnings data.... More by Ian Shepherdson
To be clear, the 2.9% year-over-year increase in headline hourly earnings in January does not restore the prior relationship between the rate of growth of nominal wages and measures of labor market tightness.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We aren't perturbed by the undershoot in December payrolls, relative both to the October and November numbers and all the leading indicators.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The shortfall in nominal wage growth, relative to measures of labor market tightness, remains the single biggest mystery of this business cycle.... More by Ian Shepherdson
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