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U.S. Key Issues
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U.S. Key Issues

Why is Wage Growth Soft?

12 June 2018 Core Inflation to Trend Gently Higher - Many Risks in Both Direction

We continue to expect core CPI inflation to drift up further over the course of this year, partly because of adverse base effects running through November, but it's hard to expect a serious acceleration in the monthly run rate when the rate of increase of unit labor costs is so low.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

11 June 2018 The Fed will Hike this Week, but Likely will Hold Back the Fourth Dot

The Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, but as usual after a widely-anticipated policy decision, most of our attention will be focused on what policymakers say about their actions, and how their views on the economy have changed.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

9 March 2018 Payrolls Likely Strong Again, All Eyes on Unemployment and Wages

We'd be quite surprised if the headline payroll number today turned out to be far from the consensus, 205K, or our forecast, 225K.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

8 February 2018 Higher-Paid People Drove up January Wages, but Data are Noisy

Given the light flow of data this week we want to go back for a closer look at the market-shattering January hourly earnings data.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

5 February 2018 January's Wage Acceleration is not Definitive, but it's a Clear Warning

To be clear, the 2.9% year-over-year increase in headline hourly earnings in January does not restore the prior relationship between the rate of growth of nominal wages and measures of labor market tightness.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

8 January 2018 The Labor Market is Still Tightening, Don't Fret over December Payrolls

We aren't perturbed by the undershoot in December payrolls, relative both to the October and November numbers and all the leading indicators.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

18 December 2017 Has Plunging Healthcare Inflation Held Down Nominal Wage Gains?

The shortfall in nominal wage growth, relative to measures of labor market tightness, remains the single biggest mystery of this business cycle.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

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