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Asia Publications

25 July 2017 Korean Q2 GDP Growth to Provide Evidence of Chinese Slowdown

By Freya Beamish

After strong real GDP growth in Q1, China commentators called the peak, claiming that growth would slow for the rest of 2017.

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24 July 2017 Asian Trade Dragged Down by Chinese Slump

By Freya Beamish

Korean exports are often a useful gauge of Asian and global trade; the country sits near the beginning of the global supply chain. It also happens to publish early in the data cycle and provides a measure of exports in the first 20 days of the month.

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21 July 2017 BoJ to Allow Foreign Tightening to Ease Japanese Policy, for now

By Freya Beamish

Governor Kuroda commented yesterday that he doesn't think Japan needs more easing at this stage. If he means that the BoJ does not have to change policy to provide more easing then we think he is right, on two and a half counts. First, Japan is likely to receive a boost under its current framework as external rate rises exceed expectations, driving down the yen.

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H2 2017 Asia Outlook - Higher Global Rates Depress China but Stimulate Japan, for now

By Freya Beamish

Pantheon Macroeconomics is pleased to make available to you our Outlooks for the second half of 2017 for the US, Eurozone, UK, Asia, and Latin America. These reports present our key views, giving you a concise summary of our economic and policy expectations. If you are interested in seeing publications which you don't already receive, please request a complimentary trial

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20 July 2017 Do we Need to be Afraid of Chinese Ghost Cities?

By Freya Beamish

Stories of Chinese ghost cities are plentiful and alarming. The aggregate data present a startling picture. Between 2012 and 2015, China started around six billion square meters of residential floorspace but sold only around five billion.

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19 July 2017 China's Rolling Ball of Money: Out of Top-Tier Cities and into Tier three

By Freya Beamish

China is a collection of hugely disparate provinces and cities. Managing all these cities with one interest rate is always difficult but in this cycle it is proving to be nearly impossible.

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18 July 2017 China is Slowing, not Rebounding. the Headline Data are Misleading

By Freya Beamish

Chinese official headline data paint a picture of a strengthening economy in Q2. Our analysis shows a sharply contrasting picture. China's nominal GDP, real GDP and deflators are often internally inconsistent.

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17 July 2017 ASF Strength Implies Spiralling Financial Risk, not Strong GDP

By Freya Beamish

China's money data, out last week, bode ill for real GDP growth in the second half. June M2 growth dipped to 9.4% year-over-year from 9.6% in May and 10.5% in April.

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14 July 2017 Ignore the Headline Trade Numbers, Chinese Growth is Slowing

By Freya Beamish

China's headline trade numbers appear to paint a picture of an economy in rude health but scratch the surface and the story is quite different. The trade surplus rose to$42.8B in June from $40.8B in May, hitting consensus.

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13 July 2017 Japanese PPI Inflation to Decelerate, but Only Modestly

By Freya Beamish

Japan's producer price inflation levelled off in June and, for now, both commodity prices and currency moves in the first half imply that inflation should fall in the second half.

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