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Asia Publications

23 June 2017 PBoC is to the Chinese Yield Curve as Dr Frankenstein is to the Monster

By Freya Beamish

China has undoubtedly been through a credit tightening, commonly explained as the PBoC attempting to engineer a squeeze, to spur on corporate deleveraging.

Category: Asia Documents / Document PDF (153.03 KB) Download

22 June 2017 Asian Exports Remain Sturdy in Q2, but the Outlook is Cloudy

By Freya Beamish

Korea's preliminary export numbers rebounded quite spectacularly in June, with growth at 24.4% year-on-year, compared with just 3.4% in May. This reading is important as it comes early in the monthly data cycle. Korea's position close to the beginning of the global supply chain, moreover, means its exports often lead shifts in global trade.

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21 June 2017 Japan will Grow this Year, Despite its Structural Hurdles

By Freya Beamish

Abenomics has had its successes in changing the structure of Japan. Notably, large numbers of women have gone back to work and corporations have started paying dividends. These are by no means small victories. But overall, the macroeconomy is essentially the same as when Shinzo Abe became prime minister.

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20 June 2017 China Property is Slowing, Prices now Depend on Mortgage Rates

By Freya Beamish

House price inflation in tier-one cities has been crushed by China's most recent monetary tightening. This is a sharp turnaround from the overheating mid-way through last year. Unlike in previous cycles, interest rates are probably more important for house prices than broad money growth.

Category: Asia Documents / Document PDF (133.48 KB) Download

19 June 2017 Forget About Tapering, it's Done. Next, the Quantity Target Will go

By Freya Beamish

The BoJ left its policy levers unchanged at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Friday. At the press conference, Governor Kuroda was repeatedly asked about the status of the ¥80T annual asset purchase target and what the exit strategy would be.

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16 June 2017 Chinese Growth to Slump Under the Burden of Deleveraging

By Freya Beamish

Wednesday's money data confirmed that Chinese households have continued to borrow into Q2 but at a slower rate than in 2016. The slowdown will really set in during the second half, and into 2018. Households have done a sterling job of taking over the borrowing baton from corporates, but they can't do everything.

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15 June 2017 China's Q2 Growth to Remain Sturdy but Expect a Slower H2

By Freya Beamish

China's industrial production grew at an annualised 7.2% rate by volume in Q1, according to our estimates, up from an average 5.9% rate in the six quar ters through mid-2016.

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14 June 2017 Korean Growth Probably Peaked in Q1. Construction to Slow

By Freya Beamish

Construction accounted for the entire 1.1% quarter-to- quarter expansion of the Korean economy in Q1, but the sector is now set to slow.

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13 June 2017 Debt-Fuelled Korean Consumption is at Risk as Rates Rise

By Freya Beamish

When Park Geun-hye came to power in Korea 2013, it was to cheers of "economic democratisation". At the time, I wrote a report with a list of reforms that would be needed for Korea to "economically democratise".

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12 June 2017 China's Policy Choices are all Difficult, can Disaster be Averted?

By Freya Beamish

China faces three possible macro outcomes over the next few years. First, the economy could pull off an active transition to consumer-led growth. Second, it could gradually slide into Japan-style growth and inflation, with government debt spiralling up. Third, it could face a full blown debt crisis, where the authorities lose control and China drags the global economy down too

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