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Asia Publications

18 August 2017 Japan's Trade Surplus Bounced. Exports to U.S. Strengthen

By Freya Beamish

Japan's July adjusted trade surplus rebounded to ¥337.4B from ¥87.3B in June, far above consensus. On our seasonal adjustment, the rebound is slightly smaller but only because we saw less of a drop in June.

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17 August 2017 China's Reform Scorecard Part Five: Monetary Policy Operation

By Freya Beamish

Chinese monetary policymakers can rely on several different instruments to affect market and broad liquidity, ranging from various forms of open market operations to interest rates to FX intervention. The tool kit is constantly changing as the PBoC refines its operations.

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16 August 2017 China's Credit Conditions Ease, but GDP Slowdown is set to Continue

By Freya Beamish

Chinese M1 growth has slowed sharply in the past year from the 25% rates prevailing in the first half of last year. Growth appeared to rebound in July to 15.3% year-over-year, from 15.0% in June. But the rebound looks erratic. Instead, growth has probably slowed slightly less sharply in 2017 than the official data suggest, but the downtrend continues.

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15 August 2017 China's Boomlet Causes Volatility for Japan, Second Half to Weaken

By Freya Beamish

Japanese real Q2 GDP growth surprised analysts, increasing sharply to a quarterly annualised rate of 4.0%, up from 1.0% in Q1 and much higher than the consensus, 2.5%. But its no coincidence that the jump in Japanese growth follows strong growth in China in Q1.

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14 August 2017 China's Slowdown Surprised Japan, Inventories to Boost Q2 GDP

By Freya Beamish

Japanese domestic demand probably strengthened in Q2, with both private consumption and fixed investment accelerating. Trade and inventories are the key swing components for GDP growth.

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11 August 2017 Commodities Driving Japan's PPI, a Weaker Yen is Needed to Lift CPI

By Freya Beamish

Japanese PPI inflation rose sharply to 2.6% in July from 2.2% in June, well above the consensus for a modest rise.

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10 August 2017 Chinese Producer Price Inflation is Proving Sticky

By Freya Beamish

Chinese PPI inflation was unchanged at 5.5% in July; it had been expected to rise modestly. Officially, inflation peaked at 7.8% in February, but we think this peak was artificially high, thanks to seasonal effects. The slowing in PPI inflation since the peak appears to suggest that monthly price gains have slowed sharply. We find little evidence to support this.

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9 August 2017 Chinese Trade Growth to Continue Trending Down in the Second Half

By Freya Beamish

The headline Chinese trade numbers are beginning to come into line with the story we have been telling about the more recent trends.

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8 August 2017 Chinese Capital Outflows Well -Managed while Conditions Benign

By Freya Beamish

The external environment was relatively benign for China in July. The euro and yen appreciated as markets began to question how long policy can remain on their current emergency settings.

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7 August 2017 Japan's Wage Drop not so Damaging as Regular Wages Rise

By Freya Beamish

Japanese average cash earnings posted a surprise drop of 0.4% year-over-year in June, down from 0.6% in May and sharply below the consensus for a rise of 0.5%. The decline was driven by a fall in the June bonus, by 1.5%.

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