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Latin America Publications

23 June 2017 Brazil and Argentina Under Renewed But Temporary Pressure

By Andres Abadia

Financial markets in Brazil and Argentina have been under pressure this week, following negative news, both domestic and external. In Brazil, the Ibovespa index tumbled nearly 1.8% on Tuesday after a Senate Committee rejected the Government's labour reform bill.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (200.11 KB) Download

*June 2017 - Latin America Chartbook*

By Andres Abadia

LatAm economic activity is stabilizing...but the recovery will be modest in Q3.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (850.62 KB) Download

21 June 2017 Q3 LatAm FX Will be Driven by Fundamentals and Commodities

By Andres Abadia

LatAm investors' concerns about U.S. monetary policy expectations and the broad direction of the USD should on the back burner until the Fed hikes again, likely in September. This will leave room for country-specific drivers to take centre stage. That should support Mexico's MXN, which already has risen 14% year-to-date against the USD, erasing its losses after the US election last November.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (282.39 KB) Download

20 June 2017 Brazil's Recovery Continues, but Politics have Harmed its Prospects

By Andres Abadia

Economic data released in recent weeks underscore that Brazil emerged from recession in Q1, but the recovery is fragile and further rate cuts are badly needed. The political crisis has damaged the reform agenda, and political uncertainty lingers.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (136.65 KB) Download

19 June 2017 Colombia's Economy Started Q2 Poorly, Expect a Sluggish Recovery

By Andres Abadia

Evidence of slowing economic activity in Colombia continues to mount. Retail sales fell 2.0% year- over-rate in April, down from a revised plus 3.0% in March; and the underlying trend is falling. This year's consumption tax increase, low confidence, tight credit conditions, and rising unemployment continue to put private consumption under pressure.

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16 June 2017 LatAm Markets will Continue to Cope Well with Fed Tightening

By Andres Abadia

LatAm markets reacted well to the U.S. Fed's decision to increase the funds rate by 25bp, to 1-to-1ΒΌ%, on Wednesday. Currencies moved only slightly after the decision and asset markets were relatively stable. Yesterday, some currencies retreated marginally as investors digested the relatively hawkish message from the Fed and Chair Yellen's press conference.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (138.22 KB) Download

14 June 2017 Retail Sales Show Brazil's Gradual Consumer Recovery Continues

By Andres Abadia

Evidence of a modest upturn in Brazilian consumers' spending continues to mount. Retail sales rose 1.0% month-to-month in April, pushing the year-over-rate up to +1.9%, from an upwardly-revised -3.2% in March.

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13 June 2017 Solid Mexican Manufacturing Eclipsed By Other Key Sectors

By Andres Abadia

Activity in the Mexican industrial sector cooled marginally at the start of the second quarter, but the drop was not as dramatic as the headlines suggested. Output fell 4.4% year-over-year in April, after a 3.4% increase in March.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (145.37 KB) Download

12 June 2017 Brazil's Inflation is in Check, but Politics are Paramount

By Andres Abadia

Brazilian political risk remains high but, as we have argued in previous Monitors, it is unlikely to deter policymakers from further near-term monetary easing. The political crisis, however, does suggest that the COPOM will act cautiously, waiting until the latest storm passes before acting more aggressively, despite ongoing good news on the inflation front.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (196.69 KB) Download

9 June 2017 Inflation in Mexico will Stabilize Soon, Despite May's Ugly Headline

By Andres Abadia

The Mexican inflation rate soared at the start of 2017, but this is yesterday's story; the headline will stabilize soon and will decline slowly towards the year-end. May data yesterday showed that inflation rose to 6.2%, from 5.8% in April. Prices fell 0.1% month-to-month unadjusted in May, driven mainly by lower non-core prices, which dropped by 1.3%, as a result of lower seasonal electricity tariffs.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (137.37 KB) Download

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