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Latin America Publications

16 August 2017 Better Q2 Data in Colombia Ease Pressure on BanRep, for now

By Andres Abadia

Colombian activity data released this week were weak, but mostly better than we expected. Real GDP rose 0.7% quarter- on-quarter in Q2, in contrast to the 0.3% fall in Q1, when the economy was hit by the lagged effect of last year's monetary tightening and the one-off VAT increase.

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15 August 2017 Weak Q2 for Mexico's Industrial Activity, but What Happens in Q3?

By Andres Abadia

Last week's industrial report confirmed that the Mexican economy softened at the end of the second quarter. Industrial production was unchanged year- over-year in June, calendar-and seasonally adjusted, down marginally from +0.1% in May.

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14 August 2017 Peru's Central Bank Holds Rates but Points to Further Stimulus

By Andres Abadia

Peru's central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 3.75% last week, but signalled that further easing is on the way. According to the press release accompanying the decision, policymakers noted that inflation expectations are within their target range and still falling.

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11 August 2017 Brazil's Inflation Rate is Falling, Mexico's Will Soon Follow

By Andres Abadia

Inflation pressures in Brazil are now well- contained, with the headline rate falling to a decade low in July. We think inflation is now close to bottoming out, but the current benign rate strengthens our base case forecast for a 100bp rate cut at the next policy meeting, in September.

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9 August 2017 Inflation in the Andes Remains in Check, But H2 Will Be Less Benign

By Andres Abadia

Inflation pressures in Colombia cooled considerably last month. Saturday's CPI report showed that inflation fell to 3.4% year-over-year in July, its lowest level since 2014, from 4.0% in June.

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8 August 2017 Will Mexico's Economy Resilience Continue in the Second Half?

By Andres Abadia

The Mexican economy maintained its relatively strong momentum in Q2. The first estimate of Q2 GDP, released last week, confirmed that growth was resilient during the first half of this year, despite the confidence hit caused by domestic and external headwinds.

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7 August 2017 Brazil's Central Bank Set to Ease to 7.25% or Lower by Year-End

By Andres Abadia

While we were out, Brazil's economic and political situation continued to improve, allowing the BCB to cut the Selic rate by 100bp to 9.25% at its July 26th meeting, matching expectations.

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21 July 2017 Venezuela's Economic and Political Crisis Deteriorates, Risks is Soaring

By Andres Abadia

The risk of political change in Venezuela is coming to a boil, following President Maduro's plans for a new constituent assembly that has the power to rewrite the constitution and scrap the existing National Assembly.

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H2 2017 LatAM Outlook - Monetary Policy Easing Continues, Offsetting Political Risk

By Andres Abadia

Pantheon Macroeconomics is pleased to make available to you our Outlooks for the second half of 2017 for the US, Eurozone, UK, Asia, and Latin America. These reports present our key views, giving you a concise summary of our economic and policy expectations. If you are interested in seeing publications which you don't already receive, please request a complimentary trial

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19 July 2017 Peru's Economy is Recovering But Temporary Political Noise is a Drag

By Andres Abadia

Following a challenging start to this year, Andean economic prospects are improving gradually, thanks to falling interest rates, lower inflation, relatively stable currencies and--in some cases--increased infrastructure spending.

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