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Latin America Publications

22 February 2017 The MXN Probably is Undervalued, but it Could Move Even Lower in Q2

By Andres Abadia

With the MXN up more than 7% since the low of 21.9 against the dollar in January, investors are pondering just how high the Mexican currency can go. We believe that the MXN will continue to hover around its recent range, 20.1-to-20.5, in the near term, but will come under pressure again as protectionist policies in the U.S. take real shape in the spring or summer.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (246.03 KB) Download

21 February 2017 Brazil's Current Account Remains Healthy, FDI In ows are Robust

By Andres Abadia

Brazil's current account data last week provided further evidence of stabilisation in the economy, despite the modest headline deterioration. The unadjusted current account deficit increased marginally to USD5.1B in January, from USD4.8B in January 2016, but the underlying trend remains stable, at about 1.3% of GDP. Our first two charts show that the overall deficit began to stabilize in mid-2016, as the rate of improvement in the trade balance slowed, reflecting the easing of the domestic recession.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (196.63 KB) Download

20 February 2017 Brazil's Momentum Slowed in Q4, but it Will Rebound, Soon

By Andres Abadia

Brazil's December economic activity index, released last week, showed that the economy ended the year on a relatively soft footing. The IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for GDP, fell 0.3% month-to-month, though the year-over-year rate rose to -1.8%, from -2.2% in November.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (151.06 KB) Download

17 February 2017 Colombian Consumers are in Good Shape, but Spending will Slow

By Andres Abadia

Colombia's retail sector surprised to the upside once again in December, despite a number of domestic headwinds. Sales jumped 6.2% year- over-year, up from 4.9% in November, marking an impressive end to the quarter. The underlying trend improved significantly in Q4, as shown in our first chart. A double-digit rise in auto sales was the main driver, offsetting weakness in other key components.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (151.21 KB) Download

15 February 2017 Poor Brazilian Retail Sales don't Change the Improving Trend

By Andres Abadia

Brazil's consumer spending data yesterday appeared downbeat. Retail sales fell 2.1% month-to-month in December, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 4.9%, from -3.8% in November. This is a poor looking headline, but volatility is normal in these data at this time of the year, and the underlying trend is improving.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (153.49 KB) Download

14 February 2017 Global Manufacturing Picks Up Pace, Are Good News for LatAm?

By Andres Abadia

More evidence indicating that the recovery in global industrial activity is underway and gaining momentum- has poured in. In particular, trade data from China, one of LatAm's biggest trading partners, was stronger than the market expected last month. Both commodity import and export volumes increased sharply in January, and this suggests better economic conditions for China's key trading partners.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (161.32 KB) Download

13 February 2017 BCCh Says it's not Worried About Inflation, Will it Ease Tomorrow?

By Andres Abadia

Chile's Central Bank's monetary policy meeting, scheduled for tomorrow, likely will be one of the most difficult in recent months. Economic activity remains soft, and GDP likely contracted in Q4, due to weakness in mining output and investment.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (202.43 KB) Download

10 February 2017 Brazil's Inflation will Fall Further this Year, Copom to Ease Boldly

By Andres Abadia

Inflation pressures are falling rapidly in Brazil, suggesting that the Copom will continue to ease aggressively in the near term. January's CPI report,released Wednesday, showed that inflation plunged to 5.4% year-over-year, from 6.3% in December, chiefly as a result of continued disinflation in key components, such as food, housing prices--including utilities--and transportation.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (202.75 KB) Download

8 February 2017 Banxico to Hike Rates Tomorrow, but its Tone Likely Will be Softened

By Andres Abadia

Banxico's likely will deliver the widely-anticipated rate hike this Thursday. Policymakers' recent actions suggests that investors should expect a 50bp increase, in line with TIIE pric ing and the market consensus. The balance of risks to inflation has deteriorated markedly on the back of the "gasolinazo", a sharp increase in regulated gasoline prices imposed to raise money and attract foreign investment.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (199.73 KB) Download

7 February 2017 Disinflation in Colombia Continues, but Momentum is Easing, for now

By Andres Abadia

January CPI data in Colombia, released on Saturday, confirmed that inflation pressures eased last month, but the details weren't as good as the headline. Inflation fell to 5.5% year-over-year, from 5.8% in December, as a result of falling food inflation-- helped mainly by a favourable base effect--and lower clothing prices.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (207.19 KB) Download

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