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Latin America Publications

24 March 2017 Rapid Disinflation will Allow the BCB to Ease More Quickly

By Andres Abadia

Brazil has made a convincing escape from high inflation in the past few months, laying the groundwork for a gradual economic recovery and faster cuts in interest rates. Mid-March CPI data, released this week, confirmed that inflation pressures eased substantially this month.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (172.98 KB) Download

22 March 2017 Improving Fiscal Picture in the South, but Politics Are Key

By Andres Abadia

Growth in South America disappointed last year, but prospects are gradually improving on the back of rising commodity prices and the global manufacturing rebound. These factors will help to ease the region's external and fiscal vulnerabilities, particularly over the second half of the year. On the domestic front, though, the first quarter has proved challenging for some countries, hit by temporary supply factors such as a mine strikes, floods, and wildfires.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (156.45 KB) Download

21 March 2017 LatAm's Gradual Recovery will Ease Concerns on the Fiscal Front

By Andres Abadia

Latin American markets have been relatively resilient this year, despite Fed tightening and high global political risks. The LACI index has risen more than 5% year-to-date, and the MSCI index has been trending higher since late last year.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (167.56 KB) Download

20 March 2017 The BCCh Leaves Open a Tiny Space for Further Easing

By Andres Abadia

Chile's central bank cut the policy rate 25bp last week to 3.0%, in line with consensus, amid easing inflationary pressures. The timing of the rate cut was no surprise; in January, the BCCh cut rates for the first time in more than two years, and kept a dovish bias.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (170.62 KB) Download

17 March 2017 Colombia's Economy is Slowing Rapidly, BanRep to Cut Further

By Andres Abadia

The Fed's insistence this week that U.S. rates will rise only twice more this year helped to ease pressures on LatAm markets this week, particularly FX. The way is now clear for some LatAm central banks to cut interest rates rapidly over the coming months, even before U.S. fiscal and trade policy becomes clear. We expect the next Fed rate hike to come in June, as the labor market continues to tighten. If we're right, the free-risk window for LatAm rate cuts is relatively short.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (210.36 KB) Download

15 March 2017 Mexican Manufacturing will do Fine in Q1, Despite Threats

By Andres Abadia

The collapse in capital spending in the oil sector and poor construction spending have constrained aggregate Mexican industrial output in recent months, despite the strength of the manufacturing sector. Total production fell 0.1% year-over-year in January, though note this was a clear improvement after the 0.6% drop in December, and better than the average 0.4% contraction over the second half of 2016.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (163.81 KB) Download

14 March 2017 Commodity Prices won't Alter the Improving LatAm Picture

By Andres Abadia

The medium-term outlook in most LatAm economies is improving, though economic activity is likely to remain anaemic in the near term. The gradual recovery in commodity prices is supporting resource economies, while the post-election surge in global stock prices has boosted confidence. But country-specific domestic considerations are equally relevant; the growth stories differ across the region.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (221.02 KB) Download

13 March 2017 Business as Usual for LatAm Central Banks, Despite the Fed Hike

By Andres Abadia

The Fed rate hike on Wednesday is fully priced in to LatAm markets, so we expect no significant immediate reaction when the trigger is pulled. But as markets gradually come around to our view that future U.S. rate risk is to the upside, markets will come under renewed pressure.

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10 March 2017 Evidence of a Brazilian Business Cycle Recovery this Year is Building

By Andres Abadia

Brazil's industrial sector had a relatively good start to the year. Data on Wednesday showed that production fell 0.1% month-to-month in January, less than markets expected, and the year-over-year rate rose to 1.4%, after a 0.1% drop in December.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (171.05 KB) Download

8 March 2017 Brazil's Economy Struggled Late Last Year, Will it Grow in Q1?

By Andres Abadia

Markets have been positively surprised by Brazil's rapid disinflation, the efforts at fiscal reform, and the prospect of growth in the economy this year. The Ibovespa index is now above its pre-crisis high and the real has approached the key level of three per USD in recent months. But the latest GDP report, released yesterday, showed that the economy struggled in Q4. Real GDP fell 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, worse than the revised 0.7% drop in Q3.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (152.82 KB) Download

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