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Latin America Publications

26 April 2017 Poor Q1 Data Puts Pressure on BanRep to Cut Rates Rapidly

By Andres Abadia

Colombia's economy activity is deteriorating rapidly, suggesting that BanRep will have to cut interest rates on Friday. Incoming data make it clear that the economy has moved into a period of deceleration, painting a starkly different picture than a year ago.

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25 April 2017 Mexico's IGAE Confirms a Surprisingly Firm Economy in Q1

By Andres Abadia

Economic activity in Mexico during the past few months has been stronger than most observers expected. Growth has certainly moderated from the relatively strong pace recorded during the second half of last year, but data for January and February show that it is still quite strong.

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24 April 2017 Brazil's Disinflation Continues, Expect Further Rapid Easing Ahead

By Andres Abadia

While we were out, Brazil's data were relatively positive, showing that inflation is still falling quickly and economic activity is stabilizing. The country has made a rapid and convincing escape from high inflation over the past year.

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12 April 2017 Mexico's Industrial Sector Resilient in Q1, Despite External Threats

By Andres Abadia

Yesterday's industrial production report in Mexico added weight to the idea that the sector improved marginally in the first quarter, despite many external threats. Industrial output rose 0.1% month-to-month in February, following a similar gain in January. The calendar-adjusted year-over-year rate rose to -0.1%, after a modest 0.3% contraction in January.

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11 April 2017 Divergent Inflation Trends in the Andes, Will Policymakers Act Soon?

By Andres Abadia

Inflation is falling quickly in Colombia, despite the VAT increase in Q1, so we expect more BanRep rate cuts over the next few months. Consumer prices rose 0.5% month-to-month unadjusted in March, pushing the inflation rate down to 4.7% year-over-year, from 5.2% in February. This is the lowest rate in almost two years, thanks to a favourable base effect and fading pressures from food prices.

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10 April 2017 Will the Inflation Dichotomy in the Big LatAm Economies Persist?

By Andres Abadia

Brazilian inflation hit its lowest rate in almost seven years in March, while Mexico's rate is the highest since July 2009. Yet we expect Mexico to tighten policy only modestly in the near term, while Brazil will ease rapidly.

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7 April 2017 Mexico Sentiment is on the Mend as U.S. Threats are Easing, for Now

By Andres Abadia

Sentiment has been improving gradually in Mexico in recent weeks, reversing some of the severe deterioration immediately after the U.S. presidential election. Year-to-date, the MXN has risen 10.3% against the USD and the stock market is up by almost 8%. We think that less protectionist U.S. trade policy rhetoric than expected immediately after the election explains the turnaround.

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5 April 2017 The Brazilian Economy is Improving: Expect a Modest Q1 GDP Recovery

By Andres Abadia

Brazilian February industrial production data, released yesterday, were relatively positive. Output rose 0.1% month-to-month, pushing the yearover- year rate down to -0.8% from 1.4% in January. Statistical quirks were behind February's year-over-year fall, though.

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4 April 2017 Mexican Markets Had a Good Q1, the Next Test is on the Political Front

By Andres Abadia

LatAm, particularly Mexico, has dealt with Donald Trump's presidency better than expected thus far. Indeed, the MXN rose 10.7% against the USD in Q1, the stock market has recovered after its initial post-Trump plunge, and risk metrics have eased significantly.

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3 April 2017 Brazil's Labour Market is Still Poor, but Likely Will Stabilize Soon

By Andres Abadia

Economic data released on Friday underscored our view that bolder rate cuts in Brazil are looming. The BCB's latest BCB's inflation report, released on Thursday, showed that policymakers now see conditions in place to increase the pace of easing "moderately" .

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (160.8 KB) Download

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