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Key Issues
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

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Key Issues

21 September 2018 Recent Momentum in Retail Sales won't be Sustained

August's retail sales figures create a misleading impression that consumers can be relied upon to pull the economy through the next six months of heightened Brexit uncertainty unscathed.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

20 September 2018 August's Jump in CPI Inflation is More Noise than Signal

August's consumer price figures caught everyone by surprise. CPI inflation increased to 2.7%, from 2.4% in July, greatly exceeding the consensus and the MPC's forecast, 2.4%.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

19 September 2018 How Would the MPC Respond to a No-deal Brexit?

A no-deal Brexit is a remote possibility. The U.K. government and EU are closing in on a deal and Brexiteers within the Conservative party have failed, so far, to trigger a confidence vote on Mrs. May's leadership.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

18 September 2018 RPI Inflation Won't Fall in Lockstep with the CPI Over the Next Year

It is a truth universally acknowledged that the RPI is a terrible measure of inflation. The ONS describes it as "very poor" and discourages its use.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

17 September 2018 CPI Inflation Likely Returned to its Downward Path in August

We expect August's consumer price figures, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation declined to 2.4%, from 2.5% in July, matching the consensus and the Bank of England's forecast.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

14 September 2018 MPC Emphasises Rising Downside Risks, Rather than Better GDP Data

The MPC surprised nobody yesterday by voting unanimously to keep Bank Rate at 0.75% and to maintain the stocks of gilt and corporate bond purchases at £435B and £10B, respectively.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

13 September 2018 A Leadership Contest Might be Imminent, but Mrs. May Won't Lose

Sterling held on to its recent gains yesterday despite mounting speculation that Eurosceptic Conservative MPs are plotting a leadership challenge.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

12 September 2018 Wage Growth Won't Remain Above 3% this Year, Despite July's Leap

It's tempting to conclude that the pick-up in year over-year growth in average weekly wages, excluding bonuses, to a three-year high of 3.1% in July, from 2.8% in June, signals that employees' bargaining power has strengthened and that a sustained wage recovery now is under way.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

11 September 2018 July's Strong-Looking GDP Growth Rate Will Be This Year's Peak

Markets rightly interpreted yesterday's above consensus GDP report as having little impact on the outlook for monetary policy.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

10 September 2018 No Need for the MPC to Rock the Boat This Week

Lacklustre economic data and persistent no deal Brexit risk mean that the MPC won't rock the boat at this week's meeting.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

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