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Key Issues
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

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Key Issues

16 Sept 2019 The MPC Is Under No Pressure to Change its Tune

We look for yet another unanimous vote by the MPC to keep Bank Rate at 0.75% on Thursday, with no new guidance on the near-term outlook.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

13 Sept 2019 House Price Growth Has Reached its Nadir, Expect a Recovery in 2020

The housing market appears to be emerging gradually from the coma induced by Brexit uncertainty at the start of the year.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

12 Sept 2019 Is Britain Heading for A Consumer Spending Slowdown in 2020

Households have been a rock of stability over the last two years, increasing their real spending at a steady rate of 1.8% year-over-year, while the rest of the economy collectively has ground to a halt.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

11 Sept 2019 The Labour Market no Longer Looks Bulletproof

A cursory glance at July's labour market report gives no cause for alarm. The headline, three-month average, unemployment rate returned to 3.8% in July, after edging up to 3.9% in June.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

10 Sept 2019 July's GDP Rebound Rules Out Pre-Brexit Easing from the MPC

The pick-up in GDP in July is a re assuring sign that the economy is on course to grow at a solid rate in Q3, thereby substantially weakening the case for the MPC to cut Bank Rate before Britain's Brexit path is known.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

9 Sept 2019 Brexiteers Lost the Brexit Day Battle, But Will They Win the Election War

After last week's drama, the pace of political developments should slow down this week.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

6 Sept 2019 Sterling Will Struggle to Recover Further this Side of the Election

Sterling recovered to $1.23 yesterday, its highest level since late July, in response to the sharp decline in the risk of a no -deal Brexit at the end of October, triggered by MPs' actions.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

5 Sept 2019 The PMIs Recession Signal is Misleading, GDP Will Rise in Q3

Recession fears were fanned yesterday by the renewed deterioration of the Markit/CIPS services survey.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

4 Sept 2019 The Conservatives' Poll Lead Does Not Have Strong Foundations

A general election this year now looks inevitable, after the defection of Phillip Lee MP from the Tories to the Lib Dems, and the PM's threat to seek an election if MPs take control of the Order Paper on Tuesday evening.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

3 Sept 2019 Don't Rely on the Manufacturing PMI for an Accurate Read in Q3

The fall in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI to 47.4 in August--its lowest level since July 2012--from 48.0 in July suggests that pre-Brexit stockpiling isn't countering the hit to demand from Brexit uncertainty and the global industrial slowdown.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

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