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Eurozone Publications

23 February 2017 The IFO Agrees with the PMI: German GDP Growth to Rise in Q1

By Claus Vistesen

Yesterday's German IFO survey broadly confirmed the bullish message from the PMIs earlier this week. The headline business climate index rose to 111.0 in February from a revised 109.9 in January, boosted by increases in both the current assessment and the expectations index.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (179.49 KB) Download

*Feb 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook*

By Samuel Tombs

A Consumer slowdown is under way...Policymakers will not provide more stimulus

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (3.36 MB) Download

22 February 2017 PMI Data in the Eurozone Signal a Strengthening Economy

By Claus Vistesen

Our view that EZ survey data would take a step back in February was severely challenged by yesterday's PMI reports. The composite index in the Eurozone rose to 56.0 in February, from 54.4 in January, lifted by a jump in the services index and a small rise in the manufacturing index.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (166.9 KB) Download

21 February 2017 Are EZ Survey Data Overestimating Momentum in the Economy?

By Claus Vistesen

We think this week's main economic surveys in the Eurozone will take a step back following a steady rise since the end of Q3. Today's composite PMI in the Eurozone likely slipped to 54.0 in February, from 54.4 in January, mainly due to a dip in the manufacturing component. Even if we're right about slightly weaker survey data in February, though, it is unlikely to change the story of a stable and solid cyclical expansion in the EZ.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (171.82 KB) Download

20 February 2017 Is the Eurozone Construction Sector is Back in Business?

By Claus Vistesen

Construction in the euro area stumbled at the end of last year. Output fell 0.2% month-to-month in December, but the year-over-year rose to 2.4%, from a revised 1.6% in November.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (160.63 KB) Download

17 February 2017 EZ consumers' demand for new cars will slow in 2017

By Claus Vistesen

EZ households' demand for new cars was off to a strong start in 2017. Car registrations in the euro area jumped 10.9% year-over-year in January, accelerating from a 2.1% rise in December. We have to discount the headline level of sales by about a fifth to account for dealers' own registrations. Even with this provision, though, the January report was solid. Growth rebounded in France and Germany, and a 27.1% surge in Dutch car registrations also lifted the headline. We think car registrations will rise about 1.5% quarter-onquarter in Q1, rebounding from a weak Q4. But this does not change the story of downside risks to private spending.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (153.6 KB) Download

16 February 2017 Should investors rebalance toward EZ equities?

By Claus Vistesen

Increasingly, we are hearing equity strategists argue that investors should rebalance their portfolios toward EZ equities. On the surface, this looks like sound advice. Commodity prices have exited their depression, factory gate inflation pressures are rising, and global manufacturing output is picking up. These factors tell a bullish story for margins and earnings at large cap industrial and materials equities in the euro area.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (169.42 KB) Download

15 February 2017 The EZ Economy is Resilient, but Fell Short of Expectations in Q4

By Claus Vistesen

The Eurozone economy was resilient at the end of last year, but yesterday's reports indicated that growth was less buoyant than markets expected. Real GDP in the euro area rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, the same pace as in Q3, but slightly less than the initial estimate 0.5%.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (155.53 KB) Download

14 February 2017 Will Today's EZ GDP Report Overcome Poor German Data?

By Claus Vistesen

All eyes in the Eurozone will be on the second estimate of Q4 GDP today, and the report likely will confirm that growth accelerated in Q4. We think real GDP rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, up from a 0.3% increase in Q3, in line with the first estimate. If this forecast is correct, the year-over-year rate will be unchanged at 1.8%. Risks to the headline, however, are tilted to the downside.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (162.18 KB) Download

13 February 2017 Can French Investment Maintain Momentum in 2017?

By Claus Vistesen

French manufacturing cooled at the end of 2016. Industrial production slipped 0.9% month-to-month in December, partially reversing an upwardly revised 2.4% jump in November. The main hits came from declines in oil refining and manufacturing of cars and other transport equipment.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (170.03 KB) Download

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