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Eurozone Publications

22 June 2017 Are we headed toward an extension of the U.K.'s EU membership?

By Claus Vistesen

The EU has had a better start to the Brexit negotiations than its counterpart across the Channel. The risk of disagreement within the EU on the details with of the U.K.'s exit is high, but the Continent has presented a united front so far, mainly because Mr. Macron and Mrs. Merkel agree on the broad objectives. They have no interest in punishing the U.K., but they are also keen to show that exiting the EU has costs for a country which leaves.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (142.97 KB) Download

21 June 2017 German PPI Likely has Peaked in 2017, Will Equity Markets Care?

By Claus Vistesen

German producer price inflation fell last month, following uninterrupted gains since the beginning of this year. Headline PPI inflation fell to 2.8% year-over- year in May, from 3.4% in April, constrained by lower energy inflation, which slipped to 3.0%, from 4.6% in April. Meanwhile, non-energy inflation declined marginally to 2.7%, from 2.8%.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (185.37 KB) Download

20 June 2017 EZ Construction Upturn Signals Upside Risks to GDP Growth

By Claus Vistesen

We continue to see signs of a strengthening upturn in Eurozone construction. Output in construction rose 0.3% month-to-month in April, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 3.2%, from an upwardly revised 3.8% in March.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (169.67 KB) Download

19 June 2017 Don't be Deceived by Jumping EZ Car Sales, Momentum is Slowing

By Claus Vistesen

Demand for new cars in the Eurozone rebounded last month. New car registrations jumped 10.3% year-over-year in May, reversing the 5.1% decline in April. The headline was boosted by solid growth in all the major economies.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (143.3 KB) Download

16 June 2017 Why is France not Pulling its Weight in EZ Inflation Data?

By Claus Vistesen

It's hard for a central bank presiding over an ageing economy to achieve a core inflation target of close to 2%. In yesterday's Monitor, we showed that German core inflation has averaged a modest 1.3% in this business cycle, despite solid GDP growth. The picture isn't much better for the ECB if we look at France.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (152.69 KB) Download

15 June 2017 Core Inflation Pressures in Germany are Rising, Slowly

By Claus Vistesen

German inflation eased in May, but the underlying upward pressure on the core is increasing. Yesterday's data showed that inflation fell to 1.5% year-over-year in May, from 2.0% in April, as the boost from the late Easter reversed. Inflation in leisure and entertainment services was driven down to +0.8%, from +3.3% in April, as a result of sharply lower inflation in package holidays and airfares.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (148.44 KB) Download

14 June 2017 Fact-checking the ECB on Low Wages and Employment in the EZ

By Claus Vistesen

Today's employment report in the euro area should extend the run of positive labour market data. We think employment rose 1.4% year-over-year in Q1, accelerating marginally from a 1.2% increase in Q4.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (142.46 KB) Download

13 June 2017 The Eurozone and Asia's Big Economies are Joined at the Hip

By Claus Vistesen

In her inaugural Monitor, our Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish plots three scenarios for the Chinese economy. The best-case scenario is that China makes a smooth transition to consumer-led growth.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (169.38 KB) Download

*June 2017 - EZ Economic Chartbook*

By Claus Vistesen

The Eurozone Economy Is In Fine Form.. But Don't Believe Everything the ECB is Telling You

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (3.97 MB) Download

12 June 2017 Germany's Trade Surplus is Vulnerable to U.K. Uncertainty

By Claus Vistesen

Germany continues to draw fire for its ballooning trade surplus, but momentum in net exports is easing. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus dipped marginally to a three-month low of €19.7B in April, from €19.8B in March, as stronger imports offset a modest rise in exports. The German trade surplus averaged €19.9B in the first four months of 2017, about 10% lower than the cyclical peak, in the middle of 2016.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (159.05 KB) Download

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