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Eurozone Publications

26 April 2017 French Business Confidence is Solid, but Manufacturing Fell in Q1

By Claus Vistesen

French manufacturing confidence soared at the start of Q2. The headline INSEE index jumped to a six-year high of 108 in April, from an upwardly revised 105 in March. The headline was flattered by a big increase in the "past activity" index, but the survey's leading indicators also improved.French manufacturing confidence soared at the start of Q2. The headline INSEE index jumped to a six-year high of 108 in April, from an upwardly revised 105 in March. The headline was flattered by a big increase in the "past activity" index, but the survey's leading indicators also improved.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (156.7 KB) Download

25 April 2017 Mr. Macron Hasn't Won Yet, Despite what Markets are Saying

By Claus Vistesen

Markets are trading like Emmanuel Macron has already moved into the Élysée Palace. Eurozone equities soared at the open yesterday, lead by the French banks, 10-year yields in France plunged, and the euro jumped. This makes sense given the signal from the polls. They were correct in their prediction of Mr. Macron's victory on Sunday, and they have been consistently forecasting that he will comfortably beat Mrs. Le Pen in the runoff.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (171.32 KB) Download

24 April 2017 It Looks Like Mr. Macron Against Mrs. Le Pen in the Second Round

By Claus Vistesen

The initial "official estimate" of the French presidential election--released 20.00 CET--suggest that the runoff will be between the centre-right Emmanuel Macron and Front National's Marine Le Pen. This is consistent with opinion polls. The average of five early estimates also suggests that Mr. Macron won the vote with 23.1% of the vote against Mrs. Le Pen's 22.5%.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (163.39 KB) Download

21 April 2017 Faites vos Jeux! Anything is Possible in France this Weekend

By Claus Vistesen

This weekend's first round of the French presidential election is too close to call. Our first chart indicates that a runoff between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron remains the best bet. But the statistical uncertainty inherent in the predictions, and the proximity of the two remaining candidates--the centre-right Mr. Fillon and far-left Mr. Melenchon-- mean that this is now effectively a four-horse race.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (152.64 KB) Download

20 April 2017 Don't Miss Today's Soaring Eurozone Construction Data

By Claus Vistesen

Markets tend to ignore Eurozone construction data, but we suspect today's report will be an exception to that rule. Our first chart shows that we're forecasting a 8.5% month-to-month leap in February EZ construction output, and we also expect an upward revision to January's numbers.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (176.88 KB) Download

19 April 2017 Another Political Hand Grenade is Thrown in European Politics

By Claus Vistesen

Economic news in Europe continues to take a back-seat to volatility in politics. Yesterday's announcement by U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May that she is seeking a snap general election on June 8th cast further doubt over what exactly Brexit will look like.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (166.29 KB) Download

18 April 2017 The Weather is Playing Tricks with EZ Industrial Production Data

By Claus Vistesen

As warned--see our Monitor April 7--economic data in the Eurozone disappointed while we were away. Industrial production, ex-construction, in the euro area slipped 0.3% month-to-month in February, and the January month-to-month gain was revised down by 0.6 percentage point to +0.3%.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (182.57 KB) Download

7 April 2017 Brace for Disappointing Industrial Production Data Today

By Claus Vistesen

Manufacturing orders in Germany recovered some ground in the middle of Q1, following the plunge at the beginning of the year. Factory orders rose 3.4% in February, pushing the year-over-year rate up to +4.6% from a revised 0.0% in January.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (176.3 KB) Download

6 April 2017 Firms in the EZ are Investing Again, but What About Wages?

By Claus Vistesen

Readers have asked us about the availability of flow-of-funds data in the Eurozone similar to the detailed U.S. reports. The ECB's sector accounts come close and cover a lot of ground, but are also released with a lag. We can't cover all sectors in one Monitor, but the investment data for non-financial firms, excluding construction, suggest that investment growth slowed last year.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (165.23 KB) Download

5 April 2017 EZ Retail Sales Snap Back, but Q1 Outlook Still looks Poor

By Claus Vistesen

Data yesterday showed that consumers in the euro area increased their spending in February, following recent weakness. Retail sales rose 0.7% month-to-month in February, reversing the cumulative 0.4% decline since November. The year-over-year rate was pushed higher to 1.8% from an upwardly revised 1.5% in January.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (178.63 KB) Download

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