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Eurozone Publications

24 March 2017 TLTROs Finish with a Bang, but it Probably does not Mean Much

By Claus Vistesen

Robust demand in the ECB's final TLTRO auction was the main story in EZ financial markets yesterday. Euro area banks--474 in total-- took up €233.5B in the March TLTRO, well above the consensus forecast €110B. To us, this strong demand is a sign that EZ banks are taking advantage of the TLTROs' incredibly generous conditions.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (165.09 KB) Download

23 March 2017 The Eurozone's Primary Income Surplus is Climbing Steadily

By Claus Vistesen

The Eurozone's total external surplus hit the skids at the start of the year. Yesterday's report showed that the seasonally adjusted current account surplus plunged to a two-year low of €24.1B in January, from a revised €30.8B in December.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (167.15 KB) Download

22 March 2017 Greece, the EU and the IMF are Sleepwalking into Crisis... Again

By Claus Vistesen

Another deadline has come and gone in the negotiations between Greece and its creditors. This week's meeting between EU finance ministers revealed that the creditors have not seen enough commitments unlock the €7B Greece needs to repay in July. Mr. Tsipras has agreed to energy sector privatizations, and to increase the threshold for income tax exemption.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (144.74 KB) Download

21 March 2017 Real Wage Growth in the Eurozone is Being Hit by Higher Inflation

By Claus Vistesen

One of the key characteristics of this euro area business cycle has been near-zero inflation due to structurally weak domestic demand and depressed prices for globally traded goods and commodities. This has supported real incomes, despite sluggish nominal wage growth.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (174.92 KB) Download

20 March 2017 Construction in the EZ is Doing Fine, Despite January Plunge

By Claus Vistesen

The Eurozone construction sector ground to a halt at the start of 2017. Data on Friday showed that output plunged 2.3% month-to-month in January, pushing the year-over-year rate down to -6.0%, from a revised +3.0% in December. The weakness was broad-based across the major economies, but it was concentrated in France and Spain where output fell by 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (171.4 KB) Download

*March 2017 - Eurozone Economic Chartbook*

By Claus Vistesen

Dutch Pro-EU Centrists Carry The Day...But We Can't Assume The Same Will Happen In France

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (3.47 MB) Download

17 March 2017 Embattled Pro-EU Parties Secure Decisive Victory in the Netherlands

By Claus Vistesen

Centrist politicians and markets breathed a sigh of relief yesterday as the results of the Dutch parliamentary elections rolled in. The incumbent conservatives, led by PM Mark Rutte, lost ground but emerged as parliament's biggest party with 33 seats out of the total 150.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (146.74 KB) Download

16 March 2017 Structural Goods Deflation in France is a Challenge for the ECB

By Claus Vistesen

Inflation pressures in France eased in February, in contrast to the story in the rest of the EZ. Yesterday's report confirmed the initial estimate that inflation fell to 1.2% year-over-year in February, from 1.3% in January. The headline was hit by a crash in the core rate to a two-year low of 0.2%, from 0.7% in January.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (166.38 KB) Download

15 March 2017 Headline Inflation in Germany will Ease in the Next Few Months

By Claus Vistesen

The German inflation rate soared at the start of 2017, but it likely will fall in the next few months. Final February data yesterday showed that inflation rose to 2.2% in February, from 1.9% in January, consistent with the initial estimate. Since December, headline inflation in Germany, and in the EZ as a whole, has been lifted by two factors. Base effects from the 2016 crash in oil prices have pushed energy inflation higher, and a supply shock in fresh produce--due to heavy snowfall in southern Europe--has lifted food inflation.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (169.73 KB) Download

14 March 2017 The ECB can Raise its Deposit Rate Before QE Ends

By Claus Vistesen

Markets are becoming more sensitive to rumours about changes in ECB policy. The euro and yields jumped on Friday after a Bloomberg report that the central bank has discussed raising rates before QE ends.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (165.27 KB) Download

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