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UK Publications

26 April 2017 Weaker Growth in Tax Receipts Adds to Slowdown Signs

By Samuel Tombs

March's public sector borrowing figures brought more signs that the economy has lost considerable momentum this year. Borrowing, on the PSNB excluding public sector banks measure, came in at £5.1B in March, up slightly from £4.3B in March 2016.

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25 April 2017 Are Further Tax Rises After the Election Inevitable?

By Samuel Tombs

The Prime Minister's refusal last week to reaffirm her party's 2015 election pledge not to raise income tax, National Insurance or VAT has fuelled speculation that taxes will rise if the Conservatives are re-elected on June 8. Admittedly, Mrs. May asserted that her party "believes in lower taxes", and the tax pledge s till might appear in the Conservatives' manifesto, which won't be published for a few weeks.

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24 April 2017 Past Errors Mean Investors Should Treat the Latest Polls Cautiously

By Samuel Tombs

Sterling jumped last week to its highest level against the dollar since last October in response to news that a general election will be held on June 8. Markets are betting that the Conservative Government will sharply increase its majority, enabling Theresa May to ignore Eurosceptic backbenchers when she strikes a deal with the EU.

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19 April 2017 Markets Overlook the Downside Risks from June's Snap Election

By Samuel Tombs

Prime Minister Theresa May's announcement that Parliament will vote today on holding a general election on June 8 shocked markets and even her own party's MPs. Betting markets were pricing in only a 20% chance of a 2017 election before yesterday's news.

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*April 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook*

By Samuel Tombs

Rising Inflation is Causing a Sharp Slowdown...Sterling's Depreciation has been Harmful so Far

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13 April 2017 Slowing Labour Income Growth Highlights Consumers' Woes

By Samuel Tombs

Yesterday's labour market data showed that growth in households' income has slowed significantly in recent months. Firms are both hiring cautiously and restraining wage increases, due to heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook and rising raw material and non-wage labour costs. Consumers' spending, therefore, will support GDP growth to a far smaller extent this year than last.

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12 April 2017 Inflation Pressures Remain more Intense than the MPC Expected

By Samuel Tombs

CPI inflation held steady at 2.3% in March, as we and the consensus had expected. Nonetheless, the consumer price figures boosted sterling and bond yields, as the details of the report made it clear that inflation is on a very steep upward path.

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11 April 2017 Markets Still aren't Fully Prepared for a Further Rise in RPI Inflation

By Samuel Tombs

Investors have been caught out by the speed of the recent rise in RPI inflation and have revised up their expectations. Even so, inflation swaps imply that markets expect RPI inflation to be 3.6% in one year's time, not much above the latest print, 3.2% in February. We still think RPI inflation will exceed markets' expectations.

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10 April 2017 Inflation's Rise Likely Arrested in March by this Year's Later Easter

By Samuel Tombs

March's consumer price figures, released tomorrow, look set to show that inflation's ascent was kept in check by the later Easter this year compared to last. Nonetheless, CPI inflation will take big upward strides over the coming months, and it likely will exceed 3% by the summer.

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7 April 2017 What Place will QE have in the Bank's Future Policy Mix?

By Samuel Tombs

Markets were jolted yesterday by news that the U.S. Fed is mulling ending, or at least slowing, the reinvestment of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities later this year. Such a move would reduce liquidity in global markets that has underpinned soaring equity prices in recent years.

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