Pantheon Macroeconomics - U.K. Document Vault

U.K. Documents
U.K. Document Vault

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U.K. Publications

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24 April 2018 Q1 GDP to Reinforce the Case for the MPC to Delay in May

One way or another, the preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP--due Friday--will have a big market impact, following Mark Carney's warning last week that a May rate hike is not a done deal.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

23 April 2018 Don't Shoot the Messenger for Spelling Out What Q1's Data Imply

The Governor's comments late last week successfully recalibrated markets, which had concluded that a May rate hike was virtually certain, despite the MPC's deliberately vague guidance.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

20 April 2018 Weak Retail Sales in Q1 Can't be Attributed Solely to Bad Weather

The 1.2% month-to-month fall in retail sales volumes in March undoubtedly was due mostly to the bad weather.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

19 April 2018 Rapidly Falling CPI Inflation is Likely to Prompt a Rethink at the Bank

The rapid fall in CPI inflation over the last two months challenges the MPC's view that sterling's 2016 depreciation will keep inflation above the 2% target for the next three years, and greatly undermines the case for another interest rate increase in May.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

18 April 2018 Wage Growth Still isn't Building Momentum, so why Rush to Hike?

ebruary's labour market data failed to make a resounding case for the MPC to raise interest rates in May, prompting markets to reduce the probability attached to a hike next month to 85%, from nearly 90% before the data were released.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

17 April 2018 The March Drop in Retail Sales will Overshadow Slowly Reviving Wages

This week's labour market, inflation and retail sales data--the last before the MPC meets on May 10--will have a major bearing on the Committee's decision.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

16 April 2018 CPI Inflation Likely Undershot the MPC's Forecast in March, Again

March's consumer prices figures, released on Wednesday, are even more important than usual, as they are the last to be published before the MPC's next meeting on May 10.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

13 April 2018 The MPC Hasn't Been Afraid to Shock Markets in the Past

Many analysts argue that the MPC inevitably will raise interest rates at its May 10 meeting because markets have fully priced-in a 25bp uplift.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

12 April 2018 Q1 Slowdown Leaves a May Rate Hike Hanging in the Balance

February's industrial production and construction output data leave us little choice but to revise down our forecast for quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q1 to 0.2%, from 0.3% previously.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

11 April 2018 February Data Likely will Show that the Industrial Revival is Losing Pace

Industrial production hit its stride last year, notching up eight consecutive month-to-month gains--the longest run of unbroken growth since May 1994--before a setback in December, which was triggered by the temporary closure of the Forties oil pipeline.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

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