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UK Publications

18 October 2017 Weak Underlying Price Pressures Give the MPC Scope to Wait

A November interest rate rise is far from the done deal that markets still anticipate, even though CPI inflation rose to 3.0% in September from 2.9% in August. More by Samuel Tombs

Region: UK   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

17 October 2017 Markets' Expectations for RPI Inflation Still Look Too High

Swap rates imply that markets expect RPI inflation to settle within a 3.3% to 3.5% range over the next five years, once the boost from sterling's depreciation has faded. More by Samuel Tombs

Region: UK   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

16 October 2017 Rate Hike Bets Likely Will Fade After September's CPI Data

September's consumer price figures likely will surprise to the downside, prompting markets to reassess their view that the MPC will almost certainly raise interest rates next month. More by Samuel Tombs

Region: UK   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

13 October 2017 A Lending Slowdown Will Keep GDP Weak Even as Inflation Fades

The worst phase of the squeeze on real wages is nearly over; CPI inflation looks set to peak at slightly above 3% in October, before falling back steadily to about 2% by the end of 2018. More by Samuel Tombs

Region: UK   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

12 October 2017 The MPC Hasn't Been Afraid to Dash Rate Hike Hopes in the Past

It often is argued that the MPC will raise interest rates in November--even if the economic data are not pressuring the Committee to tighten--because markets would go into a tailspin if the MPC failed to meet their expectations. More by Samuel Tombs

Region: UK   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

11 October 2017 Weak GDP Growth in Q3 Suggests a November Hike isn't a Done Deal

The Office for National Statistics yesterday released the last major batch of output data before the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP is published on October 25, just one week before the MPC's key meeting. More by Samuel Tombs

Region: UK   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

10 October 2017 Industrial Production Likely to Surprise to the Downside Again

Industrial production figures look set to surprise the consensus to the downside again today. We think that production was flat on a month-to-month basis in August, falling short of the consensus forecast of 0.2% growth. More by Samuel Tombs

Region: UK   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

9 October 2017 Britain's Productivity Problem can no Longer Hide Below the Surface

Britain's productivity problem has been building under the surface for years, but it is set to be more pertinent now that the economy is close to full employment. More by Samuel Tombs

Region: UK   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

6 October 2017 The Q3 Recovery in Car Sales Will Prove to be a Dead Cat Bounce

Car sales were predictably weak in September, but they could have been a lot worse. Private registrations were down 8.8% year-over-year in the second most important month of the year. More by Samuel Tombs

Region: UK   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

5 October 2017 The PMIs Show Economic Growth Momentum Still Fading

The latest PMIs indicate that the economy remained listless in Q3, undermining the case for a rate rise before the end of this year. The business activity index of the Markit/CIPS services survey rose trivially to 53.6 in September, from 53.2 in August. More by Samuel Tombs

Region: UK   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

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