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UK Publications

*June 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook*

By Samuel Tombs

Real wage falls are slowing the economy...Fears of rate hikes this year are overblown

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (2.26 MB) Download

16 June 2017 What Do the Internal MPC Members Need to See to Raise Rates?

By Samuel Tombs

Sterling received a shot in the arm yesterday following the release of the minutes of the MPC's meeting, which revealed that three members voted to raise interest rates to 0.50%, from 0.25% currently. Markets and economists--including ourselves--had expected another 7-1 split, but Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders switched sides and joined Kristin Forbes in seeking higher rates.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (124.61 KB) Download

15 June 2017 The MPC's Minutes Will Sound Balanced, Despite Surging Inflation

By Samuel Tombs

Today's MPC meeting and minutes are the first opportunity for Committee members to speak out in over a month, now that election "purdah" rules have lifted.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (141.79 KB) Download

14 June 2017 The Squeeze on Real Wages is Intensifying Rapidly

By Samuel Tombs

CPI inflation increased to 2.9% in May, from 2.7% in April, exceeding the no-change expectation of both the consensus and the MPC, as well as our own 2.8% forecast.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (142.9 KB) Download

13 June 2017 May's Inflation Figures Likely Will Bring Another Upside Surprise

By Samuel Tombs

May's consumer price figures, released today, will provide the first clean inflation read for three months, following the distortions created by this year's late Easter. Consensus forecasts and the MPC have underestimated CPI inflation regularly since the middle of last year, when the impact of sterling's depreciation began to push into the data.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (127.74 KB) Download

12 June 2017 The Hung Parliament has Hidden Positives for the Economy

By Samuel Tombs

Britain's general election has led to another major step-up in political uncertainty, which conventional wisdom assumes will harm the economy. Perhaps surprisingly, however, the government's enfeebled state brings with it some major positives for the U.K.'s economic outlook.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (123.45 KB) Download

9 June 2017 Markets Continue to Distrust Opinion Polls Indicating a Tight Race

By Samuel Tombs

The final flurry of opinion polls indicates that voting intentions have changed little over the last few days. The Conservatives have an average lead over Labour of 7.5% in the final p olls conducted by 10 different agencies, only slightly more than their 6.5% lead at the 2015 election.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (131.17 KB) Download

8 June 2017 Stepping on the First Rung of the Housing Ladder isn't Getting Easier

By Samuel Tombs

Many observers hoped that the silver lining of a slowdown in house price growth this year would be that more first-time buyers could step onto the first rung of the housing ladder. Instead, purchasing a first home has become even harder for FTBs with modest deposits.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (135.11 KB) Download

7 June 2017 A Tory Victory Wouldn't Necessarily Boost Sterling this Time

By Samuel Tombs

Predicting which way markets would move in response to potential general election outcomes has been relatively straightforward in the past. But the usual rules of thumb will not apply when the election results filter through after polling stations close on Thursday evening.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (151.18 KB) Download

*June 2017 - U.K. General Election Conference Call Charts*

By Samuel Tombs

U.K. Conference Call Charts - June 2017

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (197.87 KB) Download

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