Pantheon Macroeconomics - Ian Shepherdson's mission is to present complex economic ideas in a clear, understandable and actionable manner to financial market professionals. He has worked in and around financial markets for more than 20 years, developing a strong sense for what is important to investors, traders, salespeople and risk managers.

Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson's mission is to present complex economic ideas in a clear, understandable and actionable manner to financial market professionals. He has worked in and around financial markets for more than 20 years, developing a strong sense for what is important to investors, traders, salespeople and risk managers.

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Ian Shepherdson

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Ian Shepherdson Pantheon Macroeconomics

Ian Shepherdson

Founder & Chief U.S. Economist
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Ian Shepherdson’s mission is to present complex economic ideas in a clear, understandable and actionable manner to financial market professionals. He has worked in and around financial markets for more than 25 years, developing a strong sense for what is important to investors, traders, salespeople and risk managers.

His ability to make robust, non-consensus calls and to defend his views with hard analysis has earned him a consistent following in the markets and plaudits from the media over many years. Dr. Shepherdson has been lauded in the New York Times as "consistently right", and he is a double winner of the Wall Street Journal’s annual U.S. economic forecasting competition.

Dr. Shepherdson has consistently been ahead of the pack in predicting major events in the U.S. economy:

2017 – Forecast that GDP growth would increase as the Fed began to raise rates, because the signal of economic normalization would lift business sentiment, offsetting the cashflow hit from higher interest costs.

2015/16 – Argued that forecasts of recession were mistaken, because the weakness of manufacturing was a specific consequence of the plunge in oil prices, which would not transmit to the broader economy.

2012 – Predicted that the Fed would undertake a third round of quantitative easing, but that it was unnecessary and would not drive growth up to the pre-crash pace.

2010 – Argued that the recovery from the crash of 2008 would be very slow, despite zero interest rates, with the output gap likely not closing for a decade or more.

2005 – One of the first analysts to predict that a crash in the U.S. housing market would drive the economy into recession.

2003 – Warned that the Fed would mistakenly adopt ultra-accommodative policy after the invasion of Iraq, and that this policy would be maintained for too long, eventually leading to inflation pressure.

His main current concern is that markets underestimate the Fed’s determination to normalize policy, and that the tightening labor market, strong growth, and higher inflation will force policymakers to increase interest rates at least as quickly as promised in the FOMC’s projections.

Before establishing Pantheon Macroeconomics in 2012, Ian Shepherdson was the Chief U.S. Economist for High Frequency Economics. From 1996 to 1998 he was the Chief Economist, U.S.A., for HSBC, based in New York. From 1990 through 1996 Ian was based in London, latterly as the Chief U.K. Economist for HSBC.

Ian earned a PhD in Economics and a BSc in Banking and Finance from Loughborough University.

  • Ian Shepherdson

    Ian Shepherdson

    Ian Shepherdson's mission is to present complex economic ideas in a clear, understandable and actionable manner to financial market professionals. He has worked in and around financial markets for more than 20 years, developing a strong sense for what is important to investors, traders, salespeople and risk managers. Find out more

  • Claus Vistesen

    Claus Vistesen

    Claus Vistesen has several years' experience in the independent macro research space, as a freelancer, consultant and, latterly, as Head of Research of Variant Perception, Inc. He holds Master's degrees in economics and finance from the Copenhagen Business School and the University of Hull. Find out more

  • Andres Abadia

    Andres Abadia

    Andres Abadia, who authors our Latin American service, was previously Head of Research at Bankia in Madrid. Andres is a native of Colombia and has wide and deep experience covering all the Latin American economies. He has degrees in Economics from the Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Spain and the Universidad Externado de Colombia. Find out more

  • Samuel Tombs

    Samuel Tombs

    Samuel Tombs has focused on the U.K. economy since 2009. Prior to joining Pantheon, he was Senior U.K. Economist at Capital Economics, leading the team which topped the 2014 Sunday Times' poll of forecasters. In 2011, Samuel won the Society of Business Economists' prestigious Rybczynski Prize for an article on quantitative easing in the UK. Find out more

  • Freya Beamish

    Freya Beamish

    Freya Beamish produces the Asia service at Pantheon. She has several years of experience in covering the global economy, with a particular focus on China, Japan and Korea. Previously, she worked at Lombard Street Research (now TS Lombard), where she delivered research on Asia and the Global economy for over five years, latterly as the manager of the Macroeconomics group. Find out more

Consistently Right

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