Pantheon Macroeconomics - U.S. Document Vault

U.S. Documents
U.S. Document Vault

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U.S. Publications

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23 October 2018 Business Surveys have Flattened Richmond Fed due to Correct

All the regional PMIs and Fed business surveys are volatile in the short-term, so observations for single months need to be viewed with due skepticism.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

22 October 2018 Does the Opioid Crisis Explain the Flat Labor Participation Rate

The failure of labor market participation to increase as the economy has gathered pace, pushing unemployment down from its 10.0% peak to just 3.7%in September, is one of the biggest macro mysteries in recent years.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

19 October 2018 Mortgage Lenders were Spooked by Higher Rates even Before Stocks Fell

Rising mortgage rates appear to have triggered the start, perhaps, of a tightening in lending standards, even before Treasury yields spiked this month and stock prices fell.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

*October 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook*

A Serious Slowdown is Still Some Way Off...So the Fed has to Keep Turning the Screws... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Chartbook  Download

18 October 2018 FOMC Members won't be Easily Deflected from Raising Rates

You'd be hard-pressed to read the minutes of the September FOMC meeting and draw a conclusion other than that most policymakers are very comfortable with their forecasts of one more rate hike this year, and three next year.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

17 October 2018 Did FOMC Members Discuss Rising R-star at the September Meeting

The median of FOMC members' estimates of longer run nominal r-star--the rate which would maintain full employment and 2% inflation--nudged up by a tenth in September to 3.0%, implying real r-star of 1%.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

16 October 2018 Q3 Consumption Rose by Nearly 4%, Despite So September Retail Sales

The softness of the headline September retail sales numbers hid a decent 0.5% increase in the "control" measure, which is the best guide to consumers' spending on non-durable goods.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

15 October 2018 The Stock Market Wobble isn't Enough to Deter the Fed

A 45bp rise in long-term interest rates--the increase between mid-August and last week's peak--ought to depress stock prices, other things equal.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

12 October 2018 What Happens Under Maximum China Tariffs Clue It's not Good

The imposition of 10% tariffs on $200B-worth of Chinese imports is not a serious threat either to U.S. economic growth--the tariffs amount to 0.1% of GDP--or inflation.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

11 October 2018 The Core CPI Probably Rebounded in September

We'd be surprised to see a repeat today of August's very modest 0.08% increase in the core CPI.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

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