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U.S. Publications

US 14 December 2017 The Fed Expects Endless Growth and no Inflation, Maybe They're Right

The Fed surprised no-one by raising rates 25bp yesterday and leaving in place the median forecast for three hikes next year and two next year.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

13 December 2017 Will the Fed Forecast Sub-4% Unemployment Next Year?

Today's rate hike will be accompanied by a new round of Fed forecasts, which will have to reflect the faster growth and lower unemployment than expected back in September.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

12 December 2017 Core PPI Inflation Is Rising Rapidly. Even as Core CPI PCE Slow

The sudden downshift in core inflation at the consumer level since March, clearly visible in the CPI and the PCE, and shown in our first chart, has been accompanied by a steady increase in core producer price inflation.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

11 December 2017 200K-plus Payroll Gains Set to Continue, Wage Gains Will Rise

First things first: Payroll growth likely will be sustained at or close to November's pace.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

8 December 2017 Robust Jobs Data Will Emphasize the Labor Market's Tightness

We expect to see a 180K increase in November payrolls... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

7 December 2017 Job Gains Easily Strong Enough to Push Unemployment Down Further

We were a bit disappointed by the November ADP employment report, though a 190K reading in the 102nd month of a cyclical expansion is hardly a disaster.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

6 December 2017 ADP to Report Strong November Jobs, but will Overstate Official Data

The ADP measure of private employment hugely overstated the official measure of payrolls in September, in the wake of Hurricane Irma, but then slightly understated the October number.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

5 December 2017 ISM Non-manufacturing Set for Clear Correction. Don't Worry

Last week's strong ISM manufacturing survey for November likely will be followed by robust data for the non-manufacturing sector today, but the headline index, like its industrial counterpart, likely will dip a bit.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

4 December 2017 Hefty Tax Cuts at Full Employment Make no Sense, but they're Coming

It's not our job to pontificate on the merits, or otherwise, of the tax cut bill from a political perspective.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

1 December 2017 The ISM Manufacturing Index is set to Drop, but the Trend Remains Firm

All the regional PMI and Fed business surveys we follow suggest that today's national ISM manufacturing report for November will be weaker than in October... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

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