U.S. Document Vault
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We have revised up our second quarter consumption forecast to a startling 4.0% in the wake of yesterday's strong June retail sales numbers, which were accompanied by upward revisions to prior data.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: Treading water, but should strengthen markedly soon.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: Manufacturing is enduring a mild recession, but it probably won't deepen much further.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: A 4% quarter for consumers' spending does not make a compelling case for easier money.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: A welcome partial rebound, but a real recovery is unlikely before the fall.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Lower Rates are a Mistake Unless the Trade War Intensifies... More by Ian Shepherdson
Today's brings the June retail sales and industrial production reports, after which we'll update our second quarter GDP forecast.... More by Ian Shepherdson
No further easing needed, if a trade deal is done...but this is a dovish fed, on a hair-trigger... More by Ian Shepherdson
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's five-line letter to House Speaker Pelosi on last Friday--copied to other Congressional leaders--which said that "there is a scenario in which we run out of cash in early September, before Congress reconvenes", introduces a new element of uncertainty to the debt ceiling story.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: Upside inflation risks are elsewhere.... More by Ian Shepherdson
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