U.S. Document Vault
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Risks To The Markets' View of Fed Policy: If You Expect Nothing, Prepare To Be Surprised... More by Ian Shepherdson
We can't remember the last time a single economic report was as surprising as the December retail sales numbers, released yesterday.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The core CPI has now risen by 0.2% in each of the past five months, a streak last seen 11 years ago.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The odds favor--just--an end to the three-month streak of solid 0.2% increases in the core CPI with the release of today's January report.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We're very interested in the detail of today's January NFIB survey; the headline index, not so much.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The rundown of the Fed's balance sheet has proceeded in line with the plans laid out b ack in June 2017.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Two fiscal deadlines are on the near-horizon.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The Fed Is All-In On The Slowdown Story...But They're Playing With Fire In The Labor Market... More by Ian Shepherdson
The startling November international trade numbers, released yesterday, greatly improve the chance that the fourth quarter saw a third straight quarter of 3%- plus GDP growth.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We are not concerned by the very modest tightening in business lending standards reported in the Fed's quarterly survey of senior loan officers, published on Monday.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We very much doubt that Fed Chair Powell dramatically changed his position last week because President Trump repeatedly, and publicly, berated him and the idea of further increases in interest rates.... More by Ian Shepherdson
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