U.S. Document Vault
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We see clear upside risk to the inflation data due before the FOMC announcement, from three main sources.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: Strong almost everywhere.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The monthly survey of small businesses conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business is quite sensitive to short-term movements in the stock market, so we're expecting an increase in the November reading, due today.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We have two competing explanations for the unexpected leap in November payrolls. First, it was a fluke, so it will either be revised down substantially, or will be followed by a hefty downside correction in December.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: Lifted by the stock market.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one word: Astonishing.... More by Ian Shepherdson
October payrolls were stronger than we expected, rising 128K, despite a 46K hit from the GM strike.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one: Both headlines are misleading.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We were worried about downside risk to yesterday's ADP employment measure, but the 67K increase in November private payrolls was at the very bottom of our expected range.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: Headline weakness hides employment rebound, but is it real?... More by Ian Shepherdson
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