Pantheon Macroeconomics - U.S. Document Vault

U.S. Documents
U.S. Document Vault

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U.S. Publications

Below is a full list of our U.S. Publications.

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  11 Dec 2019 Most of the Risk to November's Core CPI is to the Upside

We see clear upside risk to the inflation data due before the FOMC announcement, from three main sources.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  US Datanote: NFIB Survey, November

In one line: Strong almost everywhere.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Datanotes [Download]

  10 Dec 2019 Small Firms Like Rising Stock Prices, even as Trade Uncertainty Continues

The monthly survey of small businesses conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business is quite sensitive to short-term movements in the stock market, so we're expecting an increase in the November reading, due today.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  9 Dec 2019 Fluke or Real? Don't Leap to Conclusions Either Way, Yet

We have two competing explanations for the unexpected leap in November payrolls. First, it was a fluke, so it will either be revised down substantially, or will be followed by a hefty downside correction in December.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Weekly [Download]

  US Datanote: Michigan Consumer Sentiment, December (preliminary)

In one line: Lifted by the stock market.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Datanotes [Download]

  US Datanote: U.S. Employment, November

In one word: Astonishing.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Datanotes [Download]

  6 Dec 2019 Downside Risk for November Payrolls, Ex-GM, we Expect Just 60K

October payrolls were stronger than we expected, rising 128K, despite a 46K hit from the GM strike.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  US Datanote: U.S. International Trade and Jobless Claims

In one: Both headlines are misleading.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Datanotes [Download]

  5 Dec 2019 The Downshift in ADP Employment Probably is Signal, not Noise

We were worried about downside risk to yesterday's ADP employment measure, but the 67K increase in November private payrolls was at the very bottom of our expected range.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  US Datanote: U.S. ISM Non-manufacturing survey, November

In one line: Headline weakness hides employment rebound, but is it real?... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Datanotes [Download]

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