U.S. Document Vault
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The sluggishness of consumers' spending and business investment in the first quarter means that hopes of a headline GDP print close to 2% rely in part on the noisier components of the economy, namely, inventories and foreign trade.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Don't be Deceived by the Consumer Slowdown...It's a One-Time Transition to Sustainability... More by Ian Shepherdson
A plunge in apparel prices attracted most of the attention after the release of the March CPI report, but it was not, in our view, the most important number.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Core CPI inflation has been 2.1-to-2.2% year-over- year for the past seven months, a remarkably stable run which likely will persist for a few more months.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The recovery in small business sentiment since the fourth quarter rollover has been extremely modest, so far.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The return to normal in the March payroll numbers, with a 196K headline increase, is another nail in the coffin of the "imminent recession" theory.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We set out in detail yesterday, here, why we think the official payroll number today will be better than the 129K ADP reading; we look for 160K.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We can think of at least three reasons for the apparent softness of ADP's March private sector employment reading.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We see no reason to think that the recent volatility in payrolls--the 311K leap in January, followed by the 20K February gain--will continue.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We were happy to see the small increase in the March ISM manufacturing index yesterday, following better news from China's PMIs, but none of these reports constitute definitive evidence that the manufacturing slowdown is over.... More by Ian Shepherdson
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