U.S. Document Vault
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Core durable goods orders have not weakened as much as implied by the ISM manufacturing survey, as our first chart shows, but it is risky to assume this situation persists.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The 17-point leap in the Richmond Fed index for October, reported yesterday, was startlingly large.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: Noisy, but the trend seems to have levelled off; signals upside potential for October ISM.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: The trend is rising, despite the September dip; new cycle highs likely by year-end.... More by Ian Shepherdson
After the strong Philly Fed survey was released last week, we argued that the regional economy likely was outperforming because of its relatively low dependence on exports, making it less vulnerable to the trade war.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In recent client meetings the first and last topic of conversation has been the market implications of the possible departure of President Trump from office.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The declines in headline housing starts and building permits in September don't matter; both were driven by corrections in the volatile multi-family sector.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: Depressed by the GM strike, but the underlying picture is grim too, and still deteriorating.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: Ignore the headline declines; core picture is improving.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: Hugely overstating the national manufacturing picture.... More by Ian Shepherdson
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