U.S. Document Vault
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The U.S. in 2018: How might it all go right?... More by Ian Shepherdson
Today's housing market data likely will look soft, but will probably not be representative of the underlying story, which remains quite positive. ... More by Ian Shepherdson
In the absence of new economic data today, we want to take the opportunity to expand on the key themes in our latest Chartbook, which was distributed Friday.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Has the wages dam finally burst? If it hasn't, it will soon ... More by Ian Shepherdson
Having panicked at the January hourly earnings numbers, markets now seem to have decided that higher inflation might not be such a bad thing after all, and stocks rallied after both Wednesday's core CPI overshoot and yesterday's repeat performance in the PPI.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The January core CPI numbers are consistent with our view that the U.S. faces bigger upside inflation risks than markets and the Fed believe.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We have no real argument with the consensus forecasts for the January CPI, with the headline likely to rise by 0.3%, with the core up 0.2%.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Jim Bullard, the St. Louis Fed president, said last week that Phillips Curve effects in the U.S. are "weak", and that nominal wage growth is not a good predictor of future inflation.... More by Ian Shepherdson
It's hard to know what will stop the correction in the stock market, but we're pretty sure that robust economic data--growth, prices and/or wages--over the next few weeks would make things worse.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The budget sequestration process, which cut discretionary government spending by a total of $114B in fiscal 2013 and fiscal 2014, was one of the dumbest things Congress has done in recent years.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Given the light flow of data this week we want to go back for a closer look at the market-shattering January hourly earnings data.... More by Ian Shepherdson
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