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U.S. Publications

22 June 2017 Falling Oil Prices will hit Mining Capex, but no Repeat of 2014 to 16

By Ian Shepherdson

The renewed slide in oil prices in recent weeks will crimp capital spending, at the margin, but it is not a macroeconomic threat on the scale of the 2014-to-16 hit.

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21 June 2017 Home Sales set for new Cycle Highs, but not in May

By Ian Shepherdson

Over the past couple of weeks, the number of applications for new mortgages to finance house purchase have reached their highest level since late 2010, when activity was boosted by the impending expiration of a time-limited tax credit for homebuyers.

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20 June 2017 As the Balance Sheet Shrinks, how can we Assess the Fed's Stance?

By Ian Shepherdson

The initial pace of the Fed's balance sheet run-off, which we expect to start in October, will be very low. At first, the balance sheet will shrink by only $10B per month, split between $6B Treasuries and $4B mortgages.

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19 June 2017 Don't Rule Out a September Fed Hike, Watch the Labor Market Data

By Ian Shepherdson

In the wake of last week's rate increase, the fed funds future puts the chance of another rise in September at just 16%. After hikes in December, March and June, we think the Fed is trying to tell us something about their intention to keep going; this is not 2015 or 2016, when the Fed happily accepted any excuse not to do what it had said it would do.

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16 June 2017 Housing Construction Should Rebound

By Ian Shepherdson

We were surprised by the weakness of the April housing starts report; we expected a robust recovery after the March numbers were depressed by the severe snowstorms across a large swathe of the country. Instead, single-family permits rose only trivially and multi-family activity--which is always volatile--fell by 9% month-to-month.

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15 June 2017 Yellen to Markets: Core Inflation is Noisy, the Labor Market is the Key

By Ian Shepherdson

The Fed's action, statement, and forecasts, and Chair Yellen's press conference, made it very clear the Fed is torn between the dovish signals from the recent core inflation data, and the much more hawkish message coming from the rapid decline in the unemployment rate.

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14 June 2017 Fed to Stick to One More 2017 Hike After Today, and Three More in 2018

By Ian Shepherdson

The Fed will hike by 25 basis points today, but what really matters is what they say about the future, both in the language of the statement and in the dotplot for this year and next.

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13 June 2017 NFIB Headline Likely to Decay, but Capex and Jobs Readings are Strong

By Ian Shepherdson

Under normal circumstances, we can predict movements in the headline NFIB index from shifts in the key labor market components, which are released a day ahead of the official employment report, and, hence, about 10 days before the full NFIB survey appears.

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12 June 2017 Can Core PCE Inflation Overtake Core CPI Inflation?

By Ian Shepherdson

For the past six years, the PCE measure of core inflation has undershot the CPI version. The average spread between the two year-over-year rates since January 2011 has been 0.3 percentage points, and as far as we can tell most observers expect it to be little changed for the foreseeable future.

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9 June 2017 Bank C&I Lending has Levelled-off, Expect a Second-Half Rebound

By Ian Shepherdson

The rollover in bank lending to commercial and industrial companies probably is over. On the face of it, the slowdown has been alarming, with year-over-year growth in the stock of lending slowing to just 2.6% in April, from a sustained peak of more than 10% in the early part of last year.

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