U.S. Document Vault
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The levelling-off in the industrial surveys in recent months is reflected in the consumer sentiment numbers. Anything can happen in any given month, but we'd now be surprised to see sustained further gains in any of the regular monthly surveys. ... More by Ian Shepherdson
For now, we're happy with our base-case forecast that growth will be nearer 3% than 2% this year, and that most of the rise in core inflation this year will come as a result of unfavorable base effects, rather than a serious increase in the month-to-month trend.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The biggest surprise in the recent inflation numbers has been the surge in the PCE measure of hospital services costs, where the year-over-year rate has jumped to 3.8% in February, an eight-year high, from just 1.3% in September.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The unemployment rate has now been at 4.1% for six straight months. This does not mean, though, that it's safe to assume it will remain there, or indeed that this level of unemployment can be sustained without eventually triggering a meaningful increase in inflation.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Mortgage applications appear to have recovered from their reported February drop, which was due mostly to a very long-standing seasonal adjustment problem... More by Ian Shepherdson
Over the past 18 months, the year-over-year rate of growth of manufacturing output has swung from minus 2.1% to plus 2.5%.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We are not concerned by the slowdown in retail sales over the past few months.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Whatever happened to consumers' sentiment in March, the level of University of Michigan's index will be very high, relative to its long-term average.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Trade talk and falling stocks are hurting...but the fed is still on course for four hikes this year... More by Ian Shepherdson
The month-to-month core CPI numbers in March were consistent, in aggregate, with the underlying trend.... More by Ian Shepherdson
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