Pantheon Macroeconomics - U.S. Document Vault

U.S. Documents
U.S. Document Vault

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U.S. Publications

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12 April 2019 Foreign Trade Ought to Offset Weak Q1 Domestic Demand, in Part

The sluggishness of consumers' spending and business investment in the first quarter means that hopes of a headline GDP print close to 2% rely in part on the noisier components of the economy, namely, inventories and foreign trade.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

*April 2019 - U.S. Economic Chartbook*

Don't be Deceived by the Consumer Slowdown...It's a One-Time Transition to Sustainability... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Chartbook  Download

11 April 2019 Don't be Misled by Falling Apparel Prices Services Inflation Risks Rising

A plunge in apparel prices attracted most of the attention after the release of the March CPI report, but it was not, in our view, the most important number.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

10 April 2019 Core Inflation is Steady Expect Mean Reversion in the March Core

Core CPI inflation has been 2.1-to-2.2% year-over- year for the past seven months, a remarkably stable run which likely will persist for a few more months.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

9 April 2019 Small Business Sentiment Ought to be Rebounding Capex Plans too

The recovery in small business sentiment since the fourth quarter rollover has been extremely modest, so far.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

8 April 2019 Payroll Gains set to be Close to 200K in Q2 Labor Market Still Tightening

The return to normal in the March payroll numbers, with a 196K headline increase, is another nail in the coffin of the "imminent recession" theory.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

5 April 2019 Payrolls Probably Failed to Return Fully to Trend in March

We set out in detail yesterday, here, why we think the official payroll number today will be better than the 129K ADP reading; we look for 160K.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

4 April 2019 It's Hard to Find the Signal Behind the ADP Noise in March

We can think of at least three reasons for the apparent softness of ADP's March private sector employment reading.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

3 April 2019 ADP set to Signal Mean Reversion in Payrolls After Wild Months

We see no reason to think that the recent volatility in payrolls--the 311K leap in January, followed by the 20K February gain--will continue.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

2 April 2019 Manufacturing Might have Hit Bottom, but Don't Celebrate Yet

We were happy to see the small increase in the March ISM manufacturing index yesterday, following better news from China's PMIs, but none of these reports constitute definitive evidence that the manufacturing slowdown is over.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

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U.S. Document Vault, pantheon macroeconomics, pantheon, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, independent analysis, independent macroeconomic research, independent, analysis, research, economic intelligence, economy, economic, economics, economists, , Ian Shepherdson, financial market, macro research, independent macro research