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Pantheon Publications

*June 2017 - Latin America Chartbook*

By Andres Abadia

LatAm economic activity is stabilizing...but the recovery will be modest in Q3.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (850.62 KB) Download

22 June 2017 Asian Exports Remain Sturdy in Q2, but the Outlook is Cloudy

By Freya Beamish

Korea's preliminary export numbers rebounded quite spectacularly in June, with growth at 24.4% year-on-year, compared with just 3.4% in May. This reading is important as it comes early in the monthly data cycle. Korea's position close to the beginning of the global supply chain, moreover, means its exports often lead shifts in global trade.

Category: Asia Documents / Document PDF (113.19 KB) Download

22 June 2017 Falling Oil Prices will hit Mining Capex, but no Repeat of 2014 to 16

By Ian Shepherdson

The renewed slide in oil prices in recent weeks will crimp capital spending, at the margin, but it is not a macroeconomic threat on the scale of the 2014-to-16 hit.

Category: U.S. Documents / Document PDF (165.64 KB) Download

22 June 2017 Are we headed toward an extension of the U.K.'s EU membership?

By Claus Vistesen

The EU has had a better start to the Brexit negotiations than its counterpart across the Channel. The risk of disagreement within the EU on the details with of the U.K.'s exit is high, but the Continent has presented a united front so far, mainly because Mr. Macron and Mrs. Merkel agree on the broad objectives. They have no interest in punishing the U.K., but they are also keen to show that exiting the EU has costs for a country which leaves.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (142.97 KB) Download

21 June 2017 Japan will Grow this Year, Despite its Structural Hurdles

By Freya Beamish

Abenomics has had its successes in changing the structure of Japan. Notably, large numbers of women have gone back to work and corporations have started paying dividends. These are by no means small victories. But overall, the macroeconomy is essentially the same as when Shinzo Abe became prime minister.

Category: Asia Documents / Document PDF (132.28 KB) Download

21 June 2017 Home Sales set for new Cycle Highs, but not in May

By Ian Shepherdson

Over the past couple of weeks, the number of applications for new mortgages to finance house purchase have reached their highest level since late 2010, when activity was boosted by the impending expiration of a time-limited tax credit for homebuyers.

Category: U.S. Documents / Document PDF (161.84 KB) Download

21 June 2017 Q3 LatAm FX Will be Driven by Fundamentals and Commodities

By Andres Abadia

LatAm investors' concerns about U.S. monetary policy expectations and the broad direction of the USD should on the back burner until the Fed hikes again, likely in September. This will leave room for country-specific drivers to take centre stage. That should support Mexico's MXN, which already has risen 14% year-to-date against the USD, erasing its losses after the US election last November.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (282.39 KB) Download

21 June 2017 German PPI Likely has Peaked in 2017, Will Equity Markets Care?

By Claus Vistesen

German producer price inflation fell last month, following uninterrupted gains since the beginning of this year. Headline PPI inflation fell to 2.8% year-over- year in May, from 3.4% in April, constrained by lower energy inflation, which slipped to 3.0%, from 4.6% in April. Meanwhile, non-energy inflation declined marginally to 2.7%, from 2.8%.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (185.37 KB) Download

20 June 2017 China Property is Slowing, Prices now Depend on Mortgage Rates

By Freya Beamish

House price inflation in tier-one cities has been crushed by China's most recent monetary tightening. This is a sharp turnaround from the overheating mid-way through last year. Unlike in previous cycles, interest rates are probably more important for house prices than broad money growth.

Category: Asia Documents / Document PDF (133.48 KB) Download

20 June 2017 As the Balance Sheet Shrinks, how can we Assess the Fed's Stance?

By Ian Shepherdson

The initial pace of the Fed's balance sheet run-off, which we expect to start in October, will be very low. At first, the balance sheet will shrink by only $10B per month, split between $6B Treasuries and $4B mortgages.

Category: U.S. Documents / Document PDF (121.33 KB) Download

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