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26 April 2017 The Surge in Spending on Building Materials Can't Last Forever

By Ian Shepherdson

Across all the major economic data, perhaps the biggest weather distortions late last year and in the early part of the year were in the retail sales numbers, specifically, the building materials component. Sales rocketed at a 16.5% annualized rate in the first quarter, the biggest gain since the spring of 2014, following a 10.2% increase in the fourth quarter of last year.

Category: U.S. Documents / Document PDF (161.97 KB) Download

26 April 2017 Poor Q1 Data Puts Pressure on BanRep to Cut Rates Rapidly

By Andres Abadia

Colombia's economy activity is deteriorating rapidly, suggesting that BanRep will have to cut interest rates on Friday. Incoming data make it clear that the economy has moved into a period of deceleration, painting a starkly different picture than a year ago.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (159.85 KB) Download

26 April 2017 French Business Confidence is Solid, but Manufacturing Fell in Q1

By Claus Vistesen

French manufacturing confidence soared at the start of Q2. The headline INSEE index jumped to a six-year high of 108 in April, from an upwardly revised 105 in March. The headline was flattered by a big increase in the "past activity" index, but the survey's leading indicators also improved.French manufacturing confidence soared at the start of Q2. The headline INSEE index jumped to a six-year high of 108 in April, from an upwardly revised 105 in March. The headline was flattered by a big increase in the "past activity" index, but the survey's leading indicators also improved.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (156.7 KB) Download

26 April 2017 Weaker Growth in Tax Receipts Adds to Slowdown Signs

By Samuel Tombs

March's public sector borrowing figures brought more signs that the economy has lost considerable momentum this year. Borrowing, on the PSNB excluding public sector banks measure, came in at £5.1B in March, up slightly from £4.3B in March 2016.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (133.16 KB) Download

25 April 2017A Government Shutdown Would Say More About Politics Than Economics

By Ian Shepherdson

A shutdown of the federal government, which could happen as early as this weekend, is a political event rather than a macroeconomic shock. But if it happens--if Congress cannot agree on even a shortterm stop-gap spending measure in order to keep the lights on after the 28th--it would demonstrate yet again that the splits in the House mean that the prospects of a substantial near-term loosening of fiscal policy are now very slim.

Category: U.S. Documents / Document PDF (139.6 KB) Download

25 April 2017 Mexico's IGAE Confirms a Surprisingly Firm Economy in Q1

By Andres Abadia

Economic activity in Mexico during the past few months has been stronger than most observers expected. Growth has certainly moderated from the relatively strong pace recorded during the second half of last year, but data for January and February show that it is still quite strong.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (215.65 KB) Download

25 April 2017 Mr. Macron Hasn't Won Yet, Despite what Markets are Saying

By Claus Vistesen

Markets are trading like Emmanuel Macron has already moved into the Élysée Palace. Eurozone equities soared at the open yesterday, lead by the French banks, 10-year yields in France plunged, and the euro jumped. This makes sense given the signal from the polls. They were correct in their prediction of Mr. Macron's victory on Sunday, and they have been consistently forecasting that he will comfortably beat Mrs. Le Pen in the runoff.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (171.32 KB) Download

25 April 2017 Are Further Tax Rises After the Election Inevitable?

By Samuel Tombs

The Prime Minister's refusal last week to reaffirm her party's 2015 election pledge not to raise income tax, National Insurance or VAT has fuelled speculation that taxes will rise if the Conservatives are re-elected on June 8. Admittedly, Mrs. May asserted that her party "believes in lower taxes", and the tax pledge s till might appear in the Conservatives' manifesto, which won't be published for a few weeks.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (114.9 KB) Download

24 April 2017 Take None of Last Week's Data at Face Value -- Distortions Abound

By Ian Shepherdson

The gap between the hard and soft data from the industrial economy appeared to widen still further last week. But we are disinclined to take the data--the official industrial production report for March, and the first survey evidence for April--at face value.

Category: U.S. Documents / Document PDF (157.47 KB) Download

24 April 2017 Brazil's Disinflation Continues, Expect Further Rapid Easing Ahead

By Andres Abadia

While we were out, Brazil's data were relatively positive, showing that inflation is still falling quickly and economic activity is stabilizing. The country has made a rapid and convincing escape from high inflation over the past year.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (198.4 KB) Download

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