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Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.
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Is the Fed Right to Worry About Future Inflation Risk?... More by Ian Shepherdson
The sudden jump in the headline, three-month average, growth rate of average weekly wages to a 10-year high of 3.3% in October, from just 2.4% four months earlier, might indicate that the U.K. has reached the sharply upward-sloping part of the Phillips Curve.... More by Samuel Tombs
Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily Download
The next few months, perhaps the whole of the first quarter, are likely to see a clear split in the U.S. economic data, with numbers from the consumer side of the economy looking much better than the industrial numbers.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily Download
China's trade surplus appears modestly to be rebuilding, edging up to $34.0B in November, on our adjustment, from $33.3B in October. The recent trough was $24.B, in March.... More by Freya Beamish
Region: Asia Publication: Monitor Daily Download
German net exports were treading water at the start of the fourth quarter. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus slipped to €17.4B in October, from a revised €17.7B in September, constrained by a 1.3% month-to-month rise in imports, which offset a 0.7% increase in exports.... More by Claus Vistesen
Region: Eurozone Publication: Monitor Daily Download
The recent FX depreciation and falling oil prices are driving the dynamics of inflation across the Andean economies.... More by Andres Abadia
Region: Latin America Publication: Monitor Daily Download
The combination of sluggish GDP growth in October and news that the Prime Minister will attempt to renegotiate the terms of the Brexit backstop, most likely pushing back the key vote in parliament until January, has extinguished any lingering chance that the MPC might be in a position to raise Bank Rate at its February meeting.... More by Samuel Tombs
Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily Download
With the exception of Mexico, November inflation was or below expectations in LatAm. Mexico's overshoot increases the likelihood that Banxico will hike its reference rate at the next board meeting on December 20.... More by Andres Abadia
Region: Latin America Publication: Monitor Daily Download
The softening in payroll growth in November appears mostly to be a story about short-term noise, rather than a sign that tariffs are hurting or that the broader economy is slowing.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Weekly Download
Unless it blinks and delays, the government is on course for a hefty defeat on Tuesday, when it asks parliament to vote to approve the Withdrawal Agreement--WA--and Political Declaration.... More by Samuel Tombs
Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Weekly Download
China's FX reserves rose to $3,062B in November, from $3,053B on October. On the face of it, the increase is surprising.... More by Freya Beamish
Region: Asia Publication: Monitor Weekly Download
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