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24 February 2017 Is Sterling's Depreciation a Blessing or a Curse for Profits?

By Samuel Tombs

This week's GDP figures showed that firms invested only sparingly in 2016, but their financial fortunes have been bolstered by a recovery in profits. The gross operating surplus of all firms rose by 4.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, the biggest increase for 11 quarters. This pushed the share of GDP absorbed by profits up to 21.3%, just above its 60-year average of 21.2%.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (144.5 KB) Download

23 February 2017 Fiscal Easing Could Boost Growth Substantially, but not for Long

By Ian Shepherdson

The White House budget proposals, which Roll Call says will be released in limited form on March 14, will include forecasts of sustained real GDP growth in a 3-to-3.5% range, according to an array of recent press reports.

Category: U.S. Documents / Document PDF (125.28 KB) Download

23 February 2017 The IFO Agrees with the PMI: German GDP Growth to Rise in Q1

By Claus Vistesen

Yesterday's German IFO survey broadly confirmed the bullish message from the PMIs earlier this week. The headline business climate index rose to 111.0 in February from a revised 109.9 in January, boosted by increases in both the current assessment and the expectations index.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (179.49 KB) Download

23 February 2017 Q4 GDP Flatters to Deceive, a Consumer-led Slowdown is Coming

By Samuel Tombs

Taken at face value, the GDP data continue to suggest that the Brexit vote has had no adverse consequences for the economy. The official estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q4 was revised up yesterday to 0.7%, from 0.6%. The revision had been flagged earlier this month by stronger industrial production and construction output figures.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (134.6 KB) Download

*Feb 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook*

By Samuel Tombs

A Consumer slowdown is under way...Policymakers will not provide more stimulus

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (3.36 MB) Download

22 February 2017 Easier lending standards to boost housing market?

By Ian Shepherdson

Whatever today's report tells us about existing home sales in January, the underlying state of housing demand right now is unclear. The sales numbers lag mortgage applications by a few months, as our first chart shows, so they're usually the best place to start if you're pondering the near-term outlook for sales. But the applications data right now are suffering from two separate distortions, one pushing the numbers up and the other pushing them down. Both distortions should fade by the late spring, but in they meantime we'd hesitate to say we have a good idea what's really happening to demand.

Category: U.S. Documents / Document PDF (151.59 KB) Download

22 February 2017 The MXN Probably is Undervalued, but it Could Move Even Lower in Q2

By Andres Abadia

With the MXN up more than 7% since the low of 21.9 against the dollar in January, investors are pondering just how high the Mexican currency can go. We believe that the MXN will continue to hover around its recent range, 20.1-to-20.5, in the near term, but will come under pressure again as protectionist policies in the U.S. take real shape in the spring or summer.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (246.03 KB) Download

22 February 2017 PMI Data in the Eurozone Signal a Strengthening Economy

By Claus Vistesen

Our view that EZ survey data would take a step back in February was severely challenged by yesterday's PMI reports. The composite index in the Eurozone rose to 56.0 in February, from 54.4 in January, lifted by a jump in the services index and a small rise in the manufacturing index.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (166.9 KB) Download

22 February 2017 Q4 GDP Likely to be Revised up, but Momentum won't Endure

By Samuel Tombs

We expect the official estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q4 to be revised up to 0.7% today, from last month's preliminary estimate of 0.6%. The consensus forecast is for no revision, so the data likely will boost interest rate expectations and sterling, if we're right.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (149.14 KB) Download

21 February 2017 Wages Don't Necessarily Lead Inflation, but Unit Labor Costs do

By Ian Shepherdson

Fed Chair Yellen said something which sounded odd, at first, in her Q&A at the Senate Banking Committee last Tuesday. It is "not clear" she argued, that the rate of growth of wages has a "direct impact on inflation".

Category: U.S. Documents / Document PDF (156.19 KB) Download

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