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24 March 2017 Boeing Likely Boosted February Orders,Oil Lifting the Core Trend

By Ian Shepherdson

The nominal value of orders for non-defense capital equipment, excluding aircraft, fell by 3.4% last year. This was less terrible than 2015, when orders plunged by 8.4%, but both years were grim when compared to the average 7.5% increase over the previous five years.

Category: U.S. Documents / Document PDF (146.15 KB) Download

24 March 2017 Rapid Disinflation will Allow the BCB to Ease More Quickly

By Andres Abadia

Brazil has made a convincing escape from high inflation in the past few months, laying the groundwork for a gradual economic recovery and faster cuts in interest rates. Mid-March CPI data, released this week, confirmed that inflation pressures eased substantially this month.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (172.98 KB) Download

24 March 2017 TLTROs Finish with a Bang, but it Probably does not Mean Much

By Claus Vistesen

Robust demand in the ECB's final TLTRO auction was the main story in EZ financial markets yesterday. Euro area banks--474 in total-- took up €233.5B in the March TLTRO, well above the consensus forecast €110B. To us, this strong demand is a sign that EZ banks are taking advantage of the TLTROs' incredibly generous conditions.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (165.09 KB) Download

24 March 2017 Q1 Consumption will be Weak, Despite February's Retail Recovery

By Samuel Tombs

The 1.4% month-to-month rise in retail sales volumes in February is not a game-changer for the economy's growth prospects in Q1. The increase reversed just under half of the 2.9% decline between October and January. The 1.5% fall in retail sales in the three months to February, compared to the previous three months, is the worst result in seven years.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (145.19 KB) Download

*March 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook*

By Samuel Tombs

Consumers are buckling under high inflation...but the MPC won't add to their woes by hiking rates

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (3.38 MB) Download

23 March 2017 Warm Weather Points to Upside Risk for February New Home Sales

By Ian Shepherdson

New home sales are much more susceptible to weather effects -- in both directions -- than existing home sales. We have lifted our forecast for today's February numbers above the 575K pace implied by the mortgage applications data in recognition of the likely boost from the much warmer-than-usual temperatures.

Category: U.S. Documents / Document PDF (158.72 KB) Download

23 March 2017 The Eurozone's Primary Income Surplus is Climbing Steadily

By Claus Vistesen

The Eurozone's total external surplus hit the skids at the start of the year. Yesterday's report showed that the seasonally adjusted current account surplus plunged to a two-year low of €24.1B in January, from a revised €30.8B in December.

Category: Eurozone Documents / Document PDF (167.15 KB) Download

23 March 2017 February Retail Sales Likely to Confirm Consumer Slowdown

By Samuel Tombs

Under normal circumstances, we would expect today's retail sales figures to reveal that volumes rebounded in February, following the 2.7% fall over the previous three months. But the continued weakness of spending surveys suggests that we should brace for another soft report.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (128.49 KB) Download

22 March 2017 Why Are Pending Sales Lagging Existing Sales?

By Ian Shepherdson

The remarkably strong existing home sales numbers in recent months, relative to the pending home sales index, are hard to explain. In January, total sales reached 5.69M, some 6% higher than the 5.35M implied by December's pending sales index. The gap between the series has widened in recent months, as our first chart shows, and we think the odds now favor a correction in today's February report.

Category: U.S. Documents / Document PDF (148.15 KB) Download

22 March 2017 Improving Fiscal Picture in the South, but Politics Are Key

By Andres Abadia

Growth in South America disappointed last year, but prospects are gradually improving on the back of rising commodity prices and the global manufacturing rebound. These factors will help to ease the region's external and fiscal vulnerabilities, particularly over the second half of the year. On the domestic front, though, the first quarter has proved challenging for some countries, hit by temporary supply factors such as a mine strikes, floods, and wildfires.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (156.45 KB) Download

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