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Pantheon Publications

17 August 2017 China's Reform Scorecard Part Five: Monetary Policy Operation

By Freya Beamish

Chinese monetary policymakers can rely on several different instruments to affect market and broad liquidity, ranging from various forms of open market operations to interest rates to FX intervention. The tool kit is constantly changing as the PBoC refines its operations.

Category: Asia Documents / Document PDF (0 B) Download

17 August 2017 The Manufacturing Recovery Continues, but no Boom in Sight

By Ian Shepherdson

The elevated readings from the ISM manufacturing survey this year have not been followed by rapid growth in output. The headline ISM averaged 55.8 in the second quarter, a solid if unspectacular reading. But output rose by only 1.2% year-over-year, and by 1.4% on a quarterly annualized basis.

Category: U.S. Documents / Document PDF (0 B) Download

17 August 2017 Strong and Broad-based Growth in the Eurozone

By Claus Vistesen

The cyclical upturn in the euro area's economy is going from strength to strength. Yesterday's second Q2 GDP estimate confirmed growth at 0.6% quarter- on-quarter, marginally stronger than the 0.5% rise in the first quarter.

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16 August 2017 China's Credit Conditions Ease, but GDP Slowdown is set to Continue

By Freya Beamish

Chinese M1 growth has slowed sharply in the past year from the 25% rates prevailing in the first half of last year. Growth appeared to rebound in July to 15.3% year-over-year, from 15.0% in June. But the rebound looks erratic. Instead, growth has probably slowed slightly less sharply in 2017 than the official data suggest, but the downtrend continues.

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16 August 2017 Strong July Sales and Revisions Signal Robust Consumption

By Ian Shepherdson

July's retail sales report signalled a good start to the third quarter but also implied that second quarter spending was stronger than previously thought. The upward revisions--totalling 0.5% for total sales and 0.4% for non-auto sales--were the biggest for some time, but we were not unduly surprised.

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16 August 2017 Better Q2 Data in Colombia Ease Pressure on BanRep, for now

By Andres Abadia

Colombian activity data released this week were weak, but mostly better than we expected. Real GDP rose 0.7% quarter- on-quarter in Q2, in contrast to the 0.3% fall in Q1, when the economy was hit by the lagged effect of last year's monetary tightening and the one-off VAT increase.

Category: Latin America Documents / Document PDF (0 B) Download

16 August 2017 As Good as it Gets for German GDP Growth in 2017?

By Claus Vistesen

Yesterday's Q2 GDP report in Germany was solid, but the headline disappointed slightly. GDP growth slowed to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter from an upwardly- revised 0.7% rise in Q1. The year-over-year rate, however, rose to 2.1% from a revised 2.0% in Q1.

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15 August 2017 China's Boomlet Causes Volatility for Japan, Second Half to Weaken

By Freya Beamish

Japanese real Q2 GDP growth surprised analysts, increasing sharply to a quarterly annualised rate of 4.0%, up from 1.0% in Q1 and much higher than the consensus, 2.5%. But its no coincidence that the jump in Japanese growth follows strong growth in China in Q1.

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15 August 2017 Time for a Rebound in Core Retail Sales A er Unexpected So ness

By Ian Shepherdson

No matter how you choose to slice-and-dice the recent retail sales numbers, the core data for the past couple of months have been disappointing. Our favorite measure--total sales less autos, gasoline, food and building materials--rose by just 0.1% month-to- month in May but then reversed this minimal gain in June.

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15 August 2017 Weak Q2 for Mexico's Industrial Activity, but What Happens in Q3?

By Andres Abadia

Last week's industrial report confirmed that the Mexican economy softened at the end of the second quarter. Industrial production was unchanged year- over-year in June, calendar-and seasonally adjusted, down marginally from +0.1% in May.

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