Pantheon Macroeconomics - Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

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Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

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Pantheon Publications

U.S. Webinar - Q4, 2018

Is the Fed Right to Worry About Future Inflation Risk?... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Webinar  Download

12 December 2018 Is Britain now at the Steep Part of the Phillips Curve?

The sudden jump in the headline, three-month average, growth rate of average weekly wages to a 10-year high of 3.3% in October, from just 2.4% four months earlier, might indicate that the U.K. has reached the sharply upward-sloping part of the Phillips Curve.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

11 December 2018 Macro Data set to Split: Consumer Strength, Industrial Weakness

The next few months, perhaps the whole of the first quarter, are likely to see a clear split in the U.S. economic data, with numbers from the consumer side of the economy looking much better than the industrial numbers.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

11 December 2018 China's Trade Surplus is Set to Rebuild Next Year

China's trade surplus appears modestly to be rebuilding, edging up to $34.0B in November, on our adjustment, from $33.3B in October. The recent trough was $24.B, in March.... More by Freya Beamish

Region: Asia   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

11 December 2018 Probably No Help From Net Exports for German GDP in Q4

German net exports were treading water at the start of the fourth quarter. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus slipped to €17.4B in October, from a revised €17.7B in September, constrained by a 1.3% month-to-month rise in imports, which offset a 0.7% increase in exports.... More by Claus Vistesen

Region: Eurozone   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

11 December 2018 Oil and FX Pass-through to Inflation Are Crosswinds in the Andes

The recent FX depreciation and falling oil prices are driving the dynamics of inflation across the Andean economies.... More by Andres Abadia

Region: Latin America   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

11 December 2018 Lacklustre October GDP is the Final Straw for February Rate Hike Bets

The combination of sluggish GDP growth in October and news that the Prime Minister will attempt to renegotiate the terms of the Brexit backstop, most likely pushing back the key vote in parliament until January, has extinguished any lingering chance that the MPC might be in a position to raise Bank Rate at its February meeting.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

10 December 2018 LatAm Inflation is Ending the Year at a Comfortable Rate

With the exception of Mexico, November inflation was or below expectations in LatAm. Mexico's overshoot increases the likelihood that Banxico will hike its reference rate at the next board meeting on December 20.... More by Andres Abadia

Region: Latin America   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

10 December 2018 Fires, Noise and Hurricanes Hit November Payrolls, not Tariffs

The softening in payroll growth in November appears mostly to be a story about short-term noise, rather than a sign that tariffs are hurting or that the broader economy is slowing.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

10 December 2018 Parliamentary Maths Points to Only One Plan B for the Prime Minister

Unless it blinks and delays, the government is on course for a hefty defeat on Tuesday, when it asks parliament to vote to approve the Withdrawal Agreement--WA--and Political Declaration.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

10 December 2018 Not a Great Moment for a Rise in China's FX Reserves

China's FX reserves rose to $3,062B in November, from $3,053B on October. On the face of it, the increase is surprising.... More by Freya Beamish

Region: Asia   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

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