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U.K. Key Issues
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

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U.K. Key Issues

The Coronavirus Pandemic

  18 Sept 2020 QE to Remain the Main Monetary Policy Tool, at Least Until the Spring

The MPC surprised yesterday both with its bullish take on the economy's current health, and with the news that it will begin, in Q4, "structured engagement on the operational considerations" regarding negative rates.... More by Tombs Samuel

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  17 Sept 2020 Inflation to Stay Below 1%, Despite Little Impact from the VAT Cut

CPI inflation fell to 0.2% in August, from 1.0% in July, but exceeded our forecast and the consensus, both zero.... More by Tombs Samuel

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  16 Sept 2020 The Upturn in Redundancies is Only Just Getting Going

The latest official data continue to understate the collapse in labour demand since Covid-19.... More by Tombs Samuel

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  15 Sept 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Fell to a Near- Zero Rate in August

August's consumer prices report, due on Wednesday, is harder to forecast than usual, given high uncertainty regarding the impact of the cut in VAT for the hospitality sector, as well as the consequences of the ONS' decision to resume collecting data from physical stores.... More by Tombs Samuel

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  14 Sept 2020 The Recovery in GDP will Continue to Decelerate Through the Autumn

GDP data for July, released on Friday, showed that the economic recovery following the Covid-19 lockdown still does not look V-shaped, even though virtually all restrictions on economic activity had been lifted.... More by Tombs Samuel

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Weekly [Download]

  11 Sept 2020 The MPC will Preserve the Option of Another QE Extension in Q4

The MPC likely will steer clear of providing strong signals on the outlook for monetary policy at next week's meeting.... More by Tombs Samuel

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  10 Sept 2020 Labour Market Data to Show Jobs Downturn Gathering Pace in Q3

The data calendar is so congested next week that it makes sense to preview Tuesday's labour market report early.... More by Tombs Samuel

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  9 Sept 2020 A 2% Uplift to the CPI Looms, Without an E.U. Trade Deal

After three years, we think the level of the CPI would be about 2% higher if the U.K. falls back on WTO terms for trade with the E .U. than if a deep Free Trade Agreement is signed.... More by Tombs Samuel

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  8 Sept 2020 July GDP to Show V-Shaped Recovery Remains Elusive

We expect July's GDP report, released on Friday, to show that overall output rose by about 7.0% month-to-month, bringing it to 11.5% below its pre-Covid peak.... More by Tombs Samuel

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  7 Sept 2020 GDP Growth will Slow Sharply as Temporary Supports are Removed

Data released during our summer break have strengthened the case for expecting the economic recovery to decelerate sharply in the autumn, well before GDP has returned to pre-Covid levels.... More by Tombs Samuel

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Weekly [Download]

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