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U.K. Key Issues
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U.K. Key Issues

Brexit

Our Chief U.K. Economist, Samuel Tombs, regularly appraises how the economy is coping with the prospect of Brexit in the U.K Monitor, Datanotes and Chartbook. Here, we have highlighted some recent, key reports.

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17 December 2018 Don't Expect a Strong Policy Signal from the MPC this Week

When the MPC last met, on November 2, it attempted to persuade markets that Bank Rate would need to rise three times over the next three years to keep inflation close to the 2% target.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

14 December 2018 Remainer Tory Rebels now have Greater Leverage

After the drama of the last few days, Brexit developments now are set to proceed at a slower pace.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

13 December 2018 Assuming the PM Wins, the Path to a Softer Brexit Will Become Clearer

After seemingly endless speculation, the confidence vote in Theresa May's leadership of the Conservative party finally has been triggered following the submission of at least 48 letters by disgruntled MPs to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

12 December 2018 Is Britain now at the Steep Part of the Phillips Curve?

The sudden jump in the headline, three-month average, growth rate of average weekly wages to a 10-year high of 3.3% in October, from just 2.4% four months earlier, might indicate that the U.K. has reached the sharply upward-sloping part of the Phillips Curve.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

11 December 2018 Lacklustre October GDP is the Final Straw for February Rate Hike Bets

The combination of sluggish GDP growth in October and news that the Prime Minister will attempt to renegotiate the terms of the Brexit backstop, most likely pushing back the key vote in parliament until January, has extinguished any lingering chance that the MPC might be in a position to raise Bank Rate at its February meeting.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

10 December 2018 Parliamentary Maths Points to Only One Plan B for the Prime Minister

Unless it blinks and delays, the government is on course for a hefty defeat on Tuesday, when it asks parliament to vote to approve the Withdrawal Agreement--WA--and Political Declaration.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

7 December 2018 GDP to Stagnate Again in October, but Markets are Braced for the Worst

October's GDP report, released on Monday, might just manage to break through the wall of noise coming from parliament ahead of the key Brexit vote on Tuesday.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

6 December 2018 November's Services PMI Bolsters our Below-Consensus Q4 GDP Call

The slump in the Markit/CIPS services PMI in November to its lowest level since July 2016 provides the clearest indication yet that uncertainty about Brexit has driven the economy virtually to a stand-still.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

5 December 2018 How's the Maths in Parliament Looking for a People's Vote?

With less than a week to go until MPs' meaningful vote on Brexit legislation, on December 11, the Prime Minister still looks set to lose.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

4 December 2018 Manufacturing Still Treading Water, Despite the Slightly Stronger PMI

The recovery in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI to 53.1 in November, from 51.1 in October, propelled it well above the consensus, and the equivalent reading for the Eurozone, 51.8, for only the second time in the last 19 months.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

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