U.K. Key Issues
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Positive news from Pfizer on the efficacy of its candidate vaccine has brought the post-Covid world into closer focus.... More by Samuel Tombs
The labour market has continued to hold up better than we and most other forecasters feared at the start of the pandemic.... More by Samuel Tombs
Markets interpreted the MPC's decision yesterday to buy £150B more gilts next year, together with its latest forecasts and comments in the minutes, as a sign that the Committee is less likely to resort to reducing Bank Rate below its current 0.10% level.... More by Samuel Tombs
The downward revision to October's services PMI to 51.4, from the 52.3 flash estimate, adds to evidence that the recovery has ground to a halt, with GDP likely still about 8% below its peak.... More by Samuel Tombs
It is highly unlikely that Britain will be able to return at the start of December to the light-touch restrictions that failed meaningfully to curb the transmission of Covid-19 last month.... More by Samuel Tombs
The case for the MPC to extend its asset purchase programme into 2021 is compelling. The mere 2.1% month-to-month rise in GDP in August has left the Committee's September forecast for Q3 GDP to be 7% below its Q4 2019 peak looking too sanguine; and note that this was revised this from the 8.6% shortfall forecast in August's Monetary Policy Report.... More by Samuel Tombs
August's GDP report represented a fatal blow to the V-shaped recovery thesis.... More by Samuel Tombs
The government will have no choice but to introduce fresh nationwide curbs on economic activity before long, if the current steep upward trend in Covid-19 infections is sustained.... More by Samuel Tombs
August's GDP report, released on Friday, looks set to reinforce the downward pressure on gilt yields by making it even more likely that the MPC will extend its QE programme later this year.... More by Samuel Tombs
The small upward revision to the level of GDP in Q2 has done little to lift the U .K. economy's recent performance into line with its international peers.... More by Samuel Tombs
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