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U.K. Key Issues
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U.K. Key Issues

Brexit

Our Chief U.K. Economist, Samuel Tombs, regularly appraises how the economy is coping with the prospect of Brexit in the U.K Monitor, Datanotes and Chartbook. Here, we have highlighted some recent, key reports.

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1 October 2018 The Current Account Deficit Remains Sterling's Achilles' Heel

The U.K.'s still-large current account deficit makes us nervous that sterling will need to depreciate further over the medium-term and would collapse if Brexit talks fail, causing international investors to take flight.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

28 September 2018 Confidence is Starting to Fray as the Brexit Deadline Nears

The persistence of no-deal Brexit risk has taken a toll on confidence across the economy over the last month.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

24 September 2018 The Prime Minister has Doubled Down on a Weak Hand

Theresa May doubled down on her Brexit stance last week, despite European Council President Donald Tusk stating clearly that her proposed framework for economic cooperation "will not work" because it risks undermining the single market.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

19 September 2018 How Would the MPC Respond to a No-deal Brexit?

A no-deal Brexit is a remote possibility. The U.K. government and EU are closing in on a deal and Brexiteers within the Conservative party have failed, so far, to trigger a confidence vote on Mrs. May's leadership.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

13 September 2018 A Leadership Contest Might be Imminent, but Mrs. May Won't Lose

Sterling held on to its recent gains yesterday despite mounting speculation that Eurosceptic Conservative MPs are plotting a leadership challenge.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

24 August 2018 What Probability are Markets Attaching to a No-Deal Brexit?

Speculation that the U.K. will end up leaving the E.U. in March without a deal has dominated the headlines over the last month. Politicians on both sides of the Channel have warned that the probability of a no-deal Brexit is at least as high as 50%, even though more than 80% of the withdrawal deal already has been agreed.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

21 August 2018 Could Stockpiling for a No-Deal Brexit Boost the Economy?

We have been asked several times in recent days whether a pick-up in stockbuilding, as part of businesses' contingency planning for a no-deal Brexit, could cause the economy to gather some pace in the run-up to Britain's scheduled departure from the EU in March 2019.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

20 August 2018 Don't Believe the Scare Stories About Rising No-Deal Brexit Risk

Investors have become more concerned about a no-deal Brexit.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

13 August 2018 Brexit's Chill Winds are Clearly Visible in the Q2 GDP Data

The Q2 GDP figures show that the economy has little underlying momentum.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

25 July 2018 Threats Posed by Brexit and Trump Stymie Manufacturing Investment

The CBI's Industrial Trends Survey, for July and Q3, supplied encouraging evidence yesterday that the manufacturing upswing still has momentum.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

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