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U.K. Key Issues
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

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U.K. Key Issues

The Coronavirus Pandemic

  3 July 2020 Can Any Valuable Information be Extracted from the PMIs?

The release today of the final reading of the composite PMI for June will provoke further debate over its usefulness in charting the economy's recovery from the Covid-19 shock.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  2 July 2020 Don't Expect Manufacturing Output to Reach Pre-Covid Levels this Year

The recovery in the industrial sector from Covid-19 finally commenced in earnest in June, after May's stalled start.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  1 July 2020 Q1 GDP Weaker than First Thought, Amid Rapid Consumer Retrenchment

Yesterday's national accounts showed that the downturn in the economy on the eve of the Covid-19 outbreak was sharper than first estimated.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  30 June 2020 Debt has Kept Firms Afloat for Now, but a Winter Reckoning is Coming

May's money and credit data show that Covid-19 has not pushed many businesses immediately over the edge.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  29 June 2020 New Gilt Issuance Projections will Imply Rising Private Sector Holdings

Investors active in the government bond market will be awaiting today, at 07:30 BST, the publication by the Debt Management Office of its updated Financing Remit for the upcoming three months. The new Remit will show that gilt sales, net of redemptions, will be lower in Q3 than in Q2.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Weekly [Download]

  26 June 2020 Sterling Unlikely to Break Out Decisively from its Recent Range

Sterling's rough first half of this year--cable has depreciated to $1.24, from $1.33 at the end of 2019--is hard to reconcile with its normal macroeconomic determinants.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  24 June 2020 Don't Fixate on the PMI Remaining Below 50, GDP is Rebounding

Both business surveys and unconventional activity indicators suggest that the recovery from the Covid-19 shock has sped up in June, after a shaky start in May.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  23 June 2020 The Treasury has Cash on Hand to Cut VAT, but Should Focus Elsewhere

Chancellor Sunak looks set to announce more fiscal stimulus next month to reinforce the economic recovery, despite recent record levels of public borrowing.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  22 June 2020 Retail Sales will be a Poor Bellwether for Households' Overall Spending

We advise strongly against concluding from the above-consensus rebound in retail sales in May that the economy is embarking on a healthy, V-shaped recovery, from Covid-19.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Weekly [Download]

  19 June 2020 Weekly Gilt Purchases to Halve, Following the MPC's Miserly Meeting

The BoE has lived up to its reputation again as one of the most unpredictable central banks.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

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