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U.K. Key Issues
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U.K. Key Issues

Brexit

Our Chief U.K. Economist, Samuel Tombs, regularly appraises how the economy is coping with the prospect of Brexit in the U.K Monitor, Datanotes and Chartbook. Here, we have highlighted some recent, key reports.

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1 March 2019 The Brexit Drag on Net Migration Should Fade This Year

The latest official data show that net migration to the U.K. hasn't fallen much, despite all the uncertainty created by the Brexit vote.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

28 February 2019 The Probable Delay to Brexit Makes a Q3 Rate Hike a Closer Call

We have no choice but to revise down our forecast for GDP growth in Q2, now that the threat of a no-deal Brexit likely will hang over the economy beyond March, probably for three more months.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

27 February 2019 Mrs. May's No-Deal Brexit U-turn Demonstrates Remainers' Leverage

Sterling has appreciated sharply over the last two weeks and yesterday briefly touched its highest level against the euro since May 2017.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

26 February 2019 No-Deal Brexit Risk Likely Will Fall Further this Week

The Prime Minister's announcement on Sunday that the meaningful vote in parliament on her Brexit deal will be delayed from this week, until March 12, came as no surprise after a series of prior postponements.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

19 February 2019 A 2019 General Election No Longer is So Implausible

The decision by seven MPs to abandon Labour and set up a new centrist grouping--the Independent Group--will not have a significant impact on the outcome of parliamentary Brexit votes.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

13 February 2019 A Weaker Pound Wouldn't be a Silver Lining in a No-deal Dystopia

Brexiteers have downplayed the economic consequences of a no-deal exit by arguing that a further depreciation of sterling would cushion the blow.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

8 February 2019 The MPC has Gone only Half-Way to Endorsing Markets' Lower Rate Path

In the midst of heightened and potentially longerlasting Brexit uncertainty, the MPC revised down its forecast for GDP growth sharply yesterday and came close to endorsing investors' view that the chances of a 25bp rate hike before the end of this year have slipped to 50:50.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

4 February 2019 MPC to Break its Radio Silence With a Hawkish Message, Despite Brexit

Investors have revised down their expectations for interest rates since the November Inflation Report and now only a 50% chance of a 25bp hike in Bank Rate is priced-in by the end of this year.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

31 January 2019 A Two-Week Delay is All the Prime Minister has Achieved

The Prime Minister achieved a rare victory yesterday, when the Commons passed the government-backed Brady amendment.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

29 January 2019 A Guide to Today's Key Brexit Votes in Parliament

Votes in the House of Commons to day likely will mark the start of MPs stamping their collective will on the Brexit process, following the Prime Minister's botched attempt at getting the current Withdrawal Agreement--WA--and Political Declaration through parliament earlier this month.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

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