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U.K. Key Issues
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U.K. Key Issues

Brexit

Our Chief U.K. Economist, Samuel Tombs, regularly appraises how the economy is coping with the prospect of Brexit in the U.K Monitor, Datanotes and Chartbook. Here, we have highlighted some recent, key reports.

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15 February 2019 January Retail Sales Will Stop the Flow of Downbeat News

We expect the run of downbeat news on the U.K. economy to be punctuated today by January's retail sales figures.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

14 February 2019 The Decline in CPI Inflation has Run its Course

January's CPI data contained no major surprises, even though the 1.8% headline rate undershot our forecast and the consensus by one tenth.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

13 February 2019 A Weaker Pound Wouldn't be a Silver Lining in a No-deal Dystopia

Brexiteers have downplayed the economic consequences of a no-deal exit by arguing that a further depreciation of sterling would cushion the blow.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

12 February 2019 GDP Likely Will Still Rise Marginally in Q1, Despite December's Dip

On the face of it, the latest GDP data look awful. December's 0.4% month-to-month fall in GDP closed a poor Q4, in which quar ter-on-quarter growth slowed to 0.2%, from 0.6% in Q3.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

11 February 2019 CPI Inflation Likely Fell Slightly Below The 2% Target in January

Analysts' forecasts for January's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, are unusually dispersed.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

8 February 2019 The MPC has Gone only Half-Way to Endorsing Markets' Lower Rate Path

In the midst of heightened and potentially longerlasting Brexit uncertainty, the MPC revised down its forecast for GDP growth sharply yesterday and came close to endorsing investors' view that the chances of a 25bp rate hike before the end of this year have slipped to 50:50.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

7 February 2019 Industrial and Retail Sectors to Drive December GDP Dip

December's GDP report, released next Monday, likely will maintain the flow of negative news on the U.K. economy.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

6 February 2019 Q1 GDP Growth will be Lacklustre, but not as Bad as the PMIs Imply

Yesterday's news that the business activity index of the Markit/CIPS services survey fell again in January, to just 50.1--its lowest level since July 2016--has created a downbeat backdrop to the MPC meeting; the minutes and Q1 Inflation Report will be published on Thursday.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

5 February 2019 Rising Debt Servicing Costs Will Constrain any Recovery in Capex

Private non-financial corporations' profits have held up well over the last two years, despite the net negative impact of sterling's depreciation and modest increases in Bank Rate.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

4 February 2019 MPC to Break its Radio Silence With a Hawkish Message, Despite Brexit

Investors have revised down their expectations for interest rates since the November Inflation Report and now only a 50% chance of a 25bp hike in Bank Rate is priced-in by the end of this year.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

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