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U.K. Key Issues
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

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U.K. Key Issues

The Coronavirus Pandemic

  12 Nov 2020 The Boost to GDP from Post-Covid Dis-Saving will be Slow Burning

Positive news from Pfizer on the efficacy of its candidate vaccine has brought the post-Covid world into closer focus.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  11 Nov 2020 Unemployment Will Peak at a Lower Rate than After the Last Recession

The labour market has continued to hold up better than we and most other forecasters feared at the start of the pandemic.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  6 Nov 2020 The MPC Still Sees a Case for More Stimulus, Despite its QE Salvo

Markets interpreted the MPC's decision yesterday to buy £150B more gilts next year, together with its latest forecasts and comments in the minutes, as a sign that the Committee is less likely to resort to reducing Bank Rate below its current 0.10% level.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  5 Nov 2020 October's PMIs Add to Signs of Pre-Lockdown Stagnation

The downward revision to October's services PMI to 51.4, from the 52.3 flash estimate, adds to evidence that the recovery has ground to a halt, with GDP likely still about 8% below its peak.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  3 Nov 2020 Covid will be Too Prevalent in December to Return to October's Lax Rules

It is highly unlikely that Britain will be able to return at the start of December to the light-touch restrictions that failed meaningfully to curb the transmission of Covid-19 last month.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  2 Nov 2020 QE Extension Now Very Likely this Week, Given the Second Lockdown

The case for the MPC to extend its asset purchase programme into 2021 is compelling. The mere 2.1% month-to-month rise in GDP in August has left the Committee's September forecast for Q3 GDP to be 7% below its Q4 2019 peak looking too sanguine; and note that this was revised this from the 8.6% shortfall forecast in August's Monetary Policy Report.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Weekly [Download]

  12 Oct 2020 The Recovery was Stalling Even Before the Second Wave

August's GDP report represented a fatal blow to the V-shaped recovery thesis.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Weekly [Download]

  7 Oct 2020 Hospitality will Have to Shut Again, If Covid's Growth Doesn't Slow Soon

The government will have no choice but to introduce fresh nationwide curbs on economic activity before long, if the current steep upward trend in Covid-19 infections is sustained.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  5 Oct 2020 August GDP Will Prompt the MPC to Reappraise the Recovery's Strength

August's GDP report, released on Friday, looks set to reinforce the downward pressure on gilt yields by making it even more likely that the MPC will extend its QE programme later this year.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Weekly [Download]

  1 Oct 2020 Households Likely will Sit On Most of their Excess Savings, for Now

The small upward revision to the level of GDP in Q2 has done little to lift the U .K. economy's recent performance into line with its international peers.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

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