U.K. Key Issues
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The MPC surprised yesterday both with its bullish take on the economy's current health, and with the news that it will begin, in Q4, "structured engagement on the operational considerations" regarding negative rates.... More by Tombs Samuel
CPI inflation fell to 0.2% in August, from 1.0% in July, but exceeded our forecast and the consensus, both zero.... More by Tombs Samuel
The latest official data continue to understate the collapse in labour demand since Covid-19.... More by Tombs Samuel
August's consumer prices report, due on Wednesday, is harder to forecast than usual, given high uncertainty regarding the impact of the cut in VAT for the hospitality sector, as well as the consequences of the ONS' decision to resume collecting data from physical stores.... More by Tombs Samuel
GDP data for July, released on Friday, showed that the economic recovery following the Covid-19 lockdown still does not look V-shaped, even though virtually all restrictions on economic activity had been lifted.... More by Tombs Samuel
The MPC likely will steer clear of providing strong signals on the outlook for monetary policy at next week's meeting.... More by Tombs Samuel
The data calendar is so congested next week that it makes sense to preview Tuesday's labour market report early.... More by Tombs Samuel
After three years, we think the level of the CPI would be about 2% higher if the U.K. falls back on WTO terms for trade with the E .U. than if a deep Free Trade Agreement is signed.... More by Tombs Samuel
We expect July's GDP report, released on Friday, to show that overall output rose by about 7.0% month-to-month, bringing it to 11.5% below its pre-Covid peak.... More by Tombs Samuel
Data released during our summer break have strengthened the case for expecting the economic recovery to decelerate sharply in the autumn, well before GDP has returned to pre-Covid levels.... More by Tombs Samuel
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