- In one line: The deficit miss isn’t that bad, seasonal effects aside; don’t put too much stock into the jump in imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A poorer start to Q2 than suggested by the already-soft headline rates.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
A poorer start to Q2 for Indonesian trade than suggested by the already-soft headlines
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian export growth rose back up above zero in April for the first time in 11 months, to 1.7%…
- …But this was mostly thanks to favourable technicalities; exports are still broadly stagnating.
- A durable return to positive growth should ensue in H2, in large part due to commodity prices.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A 13-month high, as upstream deflationary forces wane.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Will the Q1 strength in Indonesian sales carry over to Q2?
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in India continued to slip trivially in April, but we see some positive underlying trends in food.
- The RBI has a narrow window to start easing in Q3, with the room allowed by low core CPI set to vanish.
- Indonesian retail sales saw a promising Q1 revival, but hold judgement until Ramadan effects wane.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indian IP missed expectations in March, with growth slowing to 4.9%, from 5.6% in February…
- …More softness is likely this quarter, with trends at the margin unspectacular; ignore the rosy PMIs.
- An overdue payback in GDP growth to the tune of 0.6pp is likely in Q1, based purely on the IP signal.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Food inflation remains frustratingly sticky; clearer signs that core has bottomed-out.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Food inflation remains frustratingly sticky; clearer signs that core has bottomed-out.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Soft, as we cautioned, and the big picture isn’t looking great either.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Soft, as we cautioned, and the big picture isn’t looking great either.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A very quiet start to the year for the Philippine economy, especially in private domestic demand
Malaysian retail sales growth rises in March, despite a drop in wholesale growth
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in the Philippines inched up to 5.7% in Q1, from 5.5% in Q4, but fell short of the consensus.
- We have raised our 2024 GDP forecast to 5.2%, still implying a drop from 2023; consumption is frail.
- The post-Covid catch-up in investment still has legs, but plunging building permits is a big red flag.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The H2 2023 recovery in Philippine sales hit a big speed-bump in Q1
Not the kind of deficit reduction we’d like to see
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in Taiwan surprisingly fell in April, as fears over the electricity-tariff hike proved overblown…
- …But slowing goods disinflation and sticky services inflation will make a further moderation tougher.
- Philippine inflation also shocked to the downside in April; a June rate cut is still live.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
April CPI stays unexpectedly within the BSP's target range
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Indonesia ticked up to 5.1% in Q1, from 5.0% in Q4, in line with the consensus…
- …But thanks largely to a big—and unsustainable—election-period jump in government expenditure.
- The Q4 inventories lift disappeared overnight, with exports still flailing, while capex softened noticeably.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
