In one line: Headline in line; services inflation a touch higher than we anticipated.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- - CHINA’S RECOVERY MAKING HEADWAY
- - JPY PRESSURE GIVING THE BOJ A HEADACHE
- - STRONG EXPORTS LIFT KOREAN GROWTH
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Down, in contrast to the rise in the PMI.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Downside surprise in Spain; bang on consensus in Germany.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Downward pressure on the Thai baht continues to intensify
Correction in Vietnamese exports bleeds into Q2
Ignore the headline; retail sales growth in Vietnam is still wobbling
Expect a further leg up in Vietnamese inflation in May, the likely peak
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Tokyo inflation slows due to implementation of free high school education and cooling food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ resists JPY market pressure in keeping the policy rate target range steady
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ holds the policy rate steady; Tokyo consumer inflation cools, thanks to education subsidies
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Inflation continues to fall rapidly, leaving the door open to further rate cuts.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- A second Trump administration apparently has plans for the Fed; none of them are good; some are wild.
- The March rise in the core PCE deflator matched expectations; muted increases are coming in Q2.
- Strong real consumption growth in Q1 was driven partly by a falling saving rate; expect the reverse in Q2.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s disinflation remains on track, paving the way for another bold interest rate cut next month…
- …But a cautious COPOM is signaling a slower pace of easing amid the BRL sell-off, due to external risk.
- Argentina’s Milei delivers the largest fiscal surplus in three decades; his ‘shock therapy’ is paying off.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- We would choose the SBV if we had to pick the source of a third monetary policy shock this year.
- Malaysian headline and core inflation have been below 2.0% for over a quarter now...
- … And we see little risk of a blow-out to either figure, other than a mismanaged subsidy withdrawal.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We look for agreeable data this week; we see upside risk to GDP growth, and downward to core inflation.
- Money data point to a lift-off in GDP growth over the coming quarters, adjusted for the savings shift...
- ...But lending figures suggest we are right to think investment will remain depressed in H1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Consumer confidence in the economic outlook lies close to its average in the second half of the 2010s.
- Moreover, consumers’ unemployment expectations have fallen to their lowest since February 2022.
- We expect 0.5% quarter-to-quarter consumption growth in 2024, but delays to rate cuts pose a risk.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI improves on higher output and weak JPY
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI improves on higher output and weak JPY; services activity expands amid higher cost pressure
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Housing market activity likely to slow sharply in Q2.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
