A clear signal of weakening consumption.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
A broad-based slowdown, pointing to a 0.24% core PCE print.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: The deficit miss isn’t that bad, seasonal effects aside; don’t put too much stock into the jump in imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Output still fell over Q1 as a whole.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The core should fall a bit further over the summer, but 2% is likely the new trend.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Slowing jobs growth keeps MPC rate cut on track , despite strong wage growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A poorer start to Q2 than suggested by the already-soft headline rates.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
A poorer start to Q2 for Indonesian trade than suggested by the already-soft headlines
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The PBoC leaves the MLF rate unchanged, despite the April credit data dip
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The PBoC leaves the MLF rate unchanged, despite the April credit data dip
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Underlying services inflation slowed in April; momentum in rents and auto insurance prices will fade.
- The CPI and PPI data suggest the core PCE deflator rose by 0.23%, the smallest increase since December.
- April's retail sales report supports the case for a slowdown in consumption growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Indonesian export growth rose back up above zero in April for the first time in 11 months, to 1.7%…
- …But this was mostly thanks to favourable technicalities; exports are still broadly stagnating.
- A durable return to positive growth should ensue in H2, in large part due to commodity prices.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in the Eurozone rebounded at the start of 2024, matching the initial estimate.
- A fall in German construction will weigh on EZ growth in Q2, but the overall upturn will continue.
- EZ employment growth slowed in Q1, but surveys suggest the worst is now over.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We see the MPC continuing quantitative tightening at its current £100B-per-year pace in 2024/25.
- The MPC has said explicitly that it does not see rate cuts and QT as contradictory.
- Reserves will not reach ‘equilibrium’ until 2026, even with QT at a £100B-per-year pace.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
An improvement, but small businesses are still under pressure.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Falling energy prices improve trade deficit.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A 13-month high, as upstream deflationary forces wane.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
