Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

24 April 2024 Eurozone Monitor The PMIs suggest that EZ GDP growth picked up at the start of Q2

  • The rise in the EZ composite PMI suggests we should expect a pick up in GDP growth in Q2.
  • Higher selling price expectations won’t prevent an ECB cut in June; they still point to lower inflation.
  • The SNB’s tweak to minimum reserve requirements is not as big a deal as markets think.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, April 2024

In one line: Gaining steam, even though seasonals are likely behind some of the pick up. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, April 2024

In one line: Gaining steam, even though seasonals are likely behind some of the pick up. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, February

In one line: Something funny in the data; on course for a rise in Q1 either way.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 April 2024 Eurozone Monitor Italy and Spain fared better than France and Germany again in Q1

  • Spain was again the star performer in Q1; we look for GDP to have risen by 0.6% quarter-to-quarter.
  • Italy was close behind, faring better than France and Germany, as construction investment rose again.
  • Growth should rise in Spain and Italy later this year, but risks are to the downside, especially in Italy.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, February 2024

In one line: Industry was a bigger drag on Italian Q1 GDP than we previously thought.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, February 2024

In one line:  Net trade is still likely to have been a drag one growth in Q1. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 April 2024 Eurozone Monitor Which HICP components lead Eurozone wage growth?

  • EZ compensation-per-employee growth slowed in Q1, but what about negotiated wages?
  • The HICP components most correlated with wage growth point to a significant slowdown in H1 2024.
  • The Q1 bank lending survey is not the slam dunk for ECB doves that many seem to believe.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 April 2024 Eurozone Monitor Swiss CPI implies more SNB cuts; EZ house prices fell in Q4

  • The fall in Swiss inflation in March solidifies our view that more SNB rate cuts are on the way this year.
  • EZ house prices fell in Q4 and were down by 1.1% in 2023 overall; we look for another 1% drop this year.
  • The PMI adds to the evidence that Spain’s economic outperformance continued in Q1; we concur.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence