UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Consumers will spend more as their financial situation improves.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI points to growth well in excess of MPC forecasts and robust inflation pressure.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Strong April services inflation was just a flash in the pan according to the PMI.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Strengthening real wage growth drives a consumer upturn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales will bounce back from April's collapse as consumer confidence improves.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices jump in March, but further gains will be more challenging as markets reprice rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The flash PMI suggests services CPI inflation will resume its decline after barely falling in April.
- The PMI suggests growth is slowing to a more comfortable 0.3% quarter-to-quarter pace too.
- So, the MPC can cut interest rates in August, even if April inflation ended the chances of a June reduction.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: June rate cut off the cards as services barely slows.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: There isn't room for tax cuts but the Chancellor seems set on another fiscal event in the Autumn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in August, versus June previously, following strong April inflation.
- Services inflation barely slowed in April and was 0.4pp stronger than the MPC expected.
- The services strength was widespread and not concentrated in a handful of erratic items.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Polls suggest the Labour Party will win the general election that must be held by January 2025.
- The party plans supply-side boosting initiatives, from freeing planning rules to ‘crowding in’ investment.
- Those policies pose modest upside risk to current UK potential growth of around 1.5% per year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect two-year gilt yields to fall to 3.9% by end- 2024 as the MPC cuts rates.
- But high government refinancing and BoE gilt sales limit the fall in 10-year gilt yields to 4.0% at end-2024.
- Upside risks remain from inflation persistence and implausibly low public-spending forecasts.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We are unconcerned by the strong net trade contribution to Q1 GDP growth.
- Trade figures will be revised materially, and the Q1 contribution was offset by volatile stock-building.
- Export volumes rose 1.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, excluding precious metals, erratics and oil.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, as services inflation undershoots its forecasts.
- The MPC’s words in any case signal the precise path of data is not that important for the first rate cut...
- ... Data may matter more for subsequent changes, so robust wage growth will mean one cut per quarter.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Slowing jobs growth keeps MPC rate cut on track , despite strong wage growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We see the MPC continuing quantitative tightening at its current £100B-per-year pace in 2024/25.
- The MPC has said explicitly that it does not see rate cuts and QT as contradictory.
- Reserves will not reach ‘equilibrium’ until 2026, even with QT at a £100B-per-year pace.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Falling energy prices improve trade deficit.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Sharply falling LFS employment suggests the labour market is easing quickly.
- But those data are misleading, and PAYE jobs will be revised up; the labour market is easing gradually.
- The MPC needs to brace for another strong pay gain in April, but will likely cut in June nonetheless.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 2.0% in April, from 3.2% in March, 0.1pp lower than the MPC forecast.
- Ofgem’s utility-price-cap cut as well as slowing goods and food inflation chop 95bp off inflation.
- We expect services inflation to decline to 5.4% in April, as indexed price rises are lower than in 2023.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
