Don’t worry too much about the October crash in Philippine exports
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian retail sales grow th has made a steady recovery lately, but historically it remains sub-par…
- … A return to the red in Q1 can’t be ruled out; catchup growth will weaken and confidence is fading.
- Malaysian retail sales grow th drops to a 22-month low, as slowing real wage growth takes its toll.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Encouraging start to Q4 for Indonesian retail sales, but dark clouds loom
Weak start to Malaysian private consumption in Q4
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The RBI still isn’t showing any appetite for normalisation
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI is still sounding cautiously hawkish, due to food inflation risk ; April is now the likely earliest cut .
- In our view, its CPI forecasts are too pessimistic, while its outlook on growth is overly optimistic.
- Beware, the number of unemployed workers in the Philippines has now risen for two straight quarters.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Deflation in Thailand will stay for at least one more month
A reminder that any recovery in Philippine domestic demand will be bumpy
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thailand’s brief spell of CPI deflation should end in January, despite November’s downside surprise.
- We still believe average inflation will fall sharply in 2024, even if power tariffs shoot up next month.
- Sales growth in the Philippines kicked off Q4 poorly, but the nascent and fragile recovery remains intact.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
India’s PMIs are entering 2024 with waning momentum
Weak start to Singaporean retail sales in Q4
Target range inflation in the Philippines is around the corner
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s PMIs combined, are the softest they’ve been in a year, pointing clearly to a GDP payback in Q4.
- Food inflation in the Philippines is reversing, but don’t forget about entrenched core disinflation.
- Singaporean retail sales growth has fallen to an eight-month low, but fundamentals remain strong.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Only a small respite for ASEAN manufacturing in November
The mean-reversion in Indian’s manufacturing PMI remains largely intact
Adverse food price base effects in Indonesia will now unwind
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The respite for ASEAN manufacturing in November won’t last long, with demand still deteriorating…
- …Export-oriented countries continue to cause the most misery; supply-side issues are re-emerging.
We no longer expect BI to start cutting this month, following the upside surprise in
- November CPI.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Q3 was better than Q2, but the headline continues to be flattered absurdly by statistical discrepancies.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
