A massive, but perverse, net trade boost saves Thai Q3 GDP from a complete car crash
Export growth in Malaysia jumps even, as it remains flat in nominal terms
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Momentum in Singaporean exports builds, supported by base effects
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean export growth continued to recover in October, albeit boosted by friendly base effects...
- …The improvement in nominal terms appears more modest, as external demand remains weak.
- Overall, though, trade should provide a larger boost to Q4 GDP, on the back of this improvement.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP held its target reverse repo rate at 6.50% yesterday, following October’s out-of-cycle hike...
- ...Its hawkish blind spot fails to recognise that policy will tighten markedly in 2024 even if it stays on hold.
- Two-way trade growth in Indonesia continued to recover in October, but the devil is in the detail.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A sensible pause, after October’s rash out-of-cycle hike.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s trade deficit plunged to an historic low of -$31.5B in October, due partly to painful seasonals.
- Negative oil effects will soon reverse, and we welcome the October bounce in non-oil imports.
- Upstream price pressures remain benign, making soon-to-be-sticky CPI inflation easier to swallow.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Why we aren’t panicking about the record deficit.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We expect India’s Q3 GDP at end-November to show a big drop in growth to 4.2%, from 7.8% in Q2.
- The flattering boost from discrepancies in Q2 is unreliable, and consumption was weak in Q3.
- Disinflation, which continued in October, will likely partly unwind in the short run, due to onion prices.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Slowing core inflation will make the next few months of headline stubbornness easier to swallow.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A broad-based moderation, as favourable base effects reverse partially.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thailand’s Q3 GDP report next Monday should show a leap in growth to 2.9%, from 1.8% in Q2…
- …But this will be due largely to a material drop in imports; domestic demand likely weakened further.
- Retail sales momentum in Indonesia remains lackluster, keeping price-hike expectations at bay.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Government spending saves the Philippines’ Q3 GDP
Philippine sales entered Q4 with encouraging momentum
Indonesian retail sales will be ending 2023 still below the pre-Covid level
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in the Philippines surprised to the upside in Q3, leaping to 5.9%, from 4.3% in Q2...
- ...But largely thanks to an unsustainable bounce in public spending; fiscal consolidation isn’t over.
- Consumption continues to slow amid weak balance sheets, while lacklustre investment is here to stay.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Proof that the BSP’s out-of-cycle rate hike was rash
The Philippines’ smallest deficit in almost a year isn’t exactly good news
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in the Philippines plunged in October, making the BSP’s recent hike look more reckless...
- ...The U-turn in rice prices is now feeding through, and the unbroken core disinflation is far from over.
- Outright deflation has taken hold in Thailand, but it should be relatively mild and last until early Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Indonesia slowed to 4.9% in Q3, from 5.2% in Q2, falling just shy of expectations...
- ...Public and private consumption were largely to blame, and improvement any time soon is unlikely.
- Exports were grim, but the worst is over; the same cannot be said, however, for equipment capex.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indonesia’s Q3 GDP miss is worse than it looks
The government’s fuel price cuts brings about deflation in Thailand
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in Singapore is likely to remain elevated at 4.1% next year, but down from 5.0% in 2023...
- ...As the GST hike, higher regulated transport and commodity prices fuel inflationary pressures.
- Thankfully, COE prices—a key driver of inflation this year—are likely to moderate from H2 2024.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
