CHINA+ DATA WRAP 12 JANUARY 2024: China's price data indicate still-weak demand

China's price data indicate still-weak domestic demand
Exports lifted by new markets, autos

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: BoK Policy Decision, Korea, January

The BoK keeps rates unchanged, hinting at easing

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 11 JANUARY 2024: BoK keeps policy rate on hold

BoK keeps policy rate on hold, hinting at easing

Duncan WrigleyChina+

12 January 2024 China+ Monitor BoK Tweaks its Messaging, while Keeping Rates on Hold

• The BoK left the policy rate unchanged yesterday, while hinting at future easing in its statement...
• ...But Governor Rhee played down the likelihood of near-term rate cuts, worried about household debt.
• The BoK is likely to start easing in Q3; but a sharp KRW appreciation could bring forward that shift.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 10 JANUARY 2024: Japanese wage growth grinds to a halt

Japan's wages are hit by slumping bonuses

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 9 JANUARY 2024: Tokyo inflation slows further

Cooling Tokyo inflation now basically in line with BoJ target

Duncan WrigleyChina+

10 January 2024 China+ Monitor Cooling Tokyo Inflation Gives the BoJ Breathing Space

• Tokyo consumer headline inflation continued to fall in December, as food inflation cooled.
• Core inflation is slowing, as high import costs pass through the system gradually.
• The BoJ will probably still exit its negative rate policy in Q2, despite slowing inflation and mediocre growth.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

9 January 2024 China+ Monitor China's Foreign Reserves Continue to Rise, as Yield Pressure Eases

• China’s foreign reserves posted a second straight strong rise in December, as U.S. yields fell.
• Both valuation effects and improved capital inflows drove the marked increase in reserves.
• China’s pro-growth policy tilt is seen in the firing of an official, after new gaming rules hit stock prices. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 8 JANUARY 2024: Reserves rise thanks to narrowing yield gap

China's foreign reserves rise, thanks to a narrowing yield gap

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 5 JANUARY 2024

Japan's Services PMI Reports Higher Domestic Demand in December

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

8 January 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's Services Survey Reports Higher Domestic Demand

• Japan’s services sector is expanding at a faster pace; the PMI reports more domestic customers.
• The downturn in manufacturing intensified on demand uncertainty, both at home and abroad.
• The BoJ is likely to exit its negative rate policy in Q2, even if the economic backdrop does not warrant it.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 4 JANUARY 2024; Caixin services PMI; Japan final mfg PMI

Caixin services PMI offers glimmers of hope

Japanese manufacturing activity is struggling

Duncan WrigleyChina+

5 January 2024 China+ Monitor China's Service Sector Continues to Lead a Soft Recovery

• The Caixin PMI indicated rising service activity in December, in contrast to the depressed official PMI...
• ...But the Caixin PMI has been a better leading indicator of services production recently.
• Consumer services demand is likely to continue to outperform soft consumer goods demand in 2024.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, December

Korean exports rise sharply on a WDA basis

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, December

The volatile Caixin PMI is more optimistic than the official measure again

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 2 JANUARY 2024

The volatile Caixin PMI is more optimistic than the official measure again

Korea’s manufacturing activities steady in December

Korean export growth accelerates on a WDA basis 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

3 January 2024 China+ Monitor Chinese Manufacturing Activity Continues to Flounder

• December’s NBS manufacturing PMI fell for a third straight month, to the weakest level since June.
• The divergence between the official and the Caixin measures continues, especially on export orders.
• The government will rely more on fiscal policy in 2024. The PSL deployment is a quasi-fiscal example.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

2 January 2024 China+ Monitor China's Property Sector is Barely Making Progress

• Developer funding improved in November, thanks to regulatory support to ensure project completions.
• Home sales continue to fall steeply, but construction activity appears to be bottoming out at a low level.
• A sharp fall in existing-home prices likely indicates a supply surge as investors offload properties.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

December 2023 - China+ Chartbook

• - CHINA PRIORITISES RESTRUCTURING OVER GROWTH
• - FALLING INFLATION SHOULD DELAY BOJ TIGHTENING
• - BOK WORRIED ABOUT HIGH HOUSEHOLD DEBT

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: National CPI, Japan, November

Japan’s inflation slows in November, thanks to easing food and core prices

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+