CHINA+ DATA WRAP 7 DECEMBER 2023: Chinese exports have bottomed out

China's exports have bottomed out but are set for a weak recovery

Duncan WrigleyChina+

8 December 2023 China+ Monitor China's Exports Bottom out, Supporting Jump in FX Reserves

• November trade data show Chine se exports have flattened out in recent months.
• Key commodity import volumes continue to grow, except crude oil, which abruptly fell in November.
• Foreign reserves rose sharply in November, thanks to valuation effects and a larger trade surplus.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

7 December 2023 China+ Monitor China's Service Activity Trending Lower Amid Soft Sentiment

• China’s services PMIs diverged in November, but this is probably a blip in a cooling trend this year.
• The graduate jobs market is likely still weak, if slightly better than last year.
• Consumer confidence has waned since the initial reopening surge in Q1.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 5 DECEMBER 2023: Tokyo CPI nears BoJ target rate

Tokyo core inflation excluding fresh food is nearing the BoJ target rate
Japan's services PMI indicates slowing growth
China’s Caixin services PMI ticked up

Duncan WrigleyChina+

6 December 2023 China+ Monitor Cooling Tokyo CPI Should Provide Some Relief to the BoJ

• Tokyo consumer inflation fell 0.6pp to 2.6% year- over-year in November...
• ...And core inflation excluding fresh food dipped to 2.3%, close to the BoJ’s 2% target.
• The downward revision to Japan’s final services PMI indicates slowing growth, despite robust tourism.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, November

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, November

The erratic Caixin PMI is more optimistic than the official gauge 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1 DECEMBER 2023: Caixin PMI rises

China's erratic Caixin PMI rises
Korean exports are weaker than the headline figure
Japanese manufacturing falters 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

4 December 2023 China+ Monitor BoK Holds Fast, Worried About Persistently Elevated Inflation

• The BoK left the policy rate unchanged last week; it raise d its 2024 inflation forecast.
• The Bank is likely to shift its focus to growth support in 2024 but delay the first rate cut until Q3.
• Korean export growth rose in November, largely thanks to base effects; trade is still bottoming out.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: BoK Policy Decision, Korea, November

The BoK keeps rates on hold

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, November

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 30 NOVEMBER 2023

China's manufacturing PMI is hit by falling demand; the BoK keeps rates on hold

Duncan WrigleyChina+

1 December 2023 China+ Monitor Chinese Manufacturing Reports Weakening Demand

• China’s November manufacturing PMI was hit by fading demand, while output continues to rise.
• But the weakness is mainly in materials processing, despite rising construction activity...
• ...Domestic demand for equipment and high-tech manufacturing is growing.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

30 November 2023 China+ Monitor China's Industrial Profits Improve for the Third Straight Month

• October’s industrial profit recovery was slower than expected, due to base effects and rising costs.
• Fading reflation impetus from producer prices also contributed; manufacturing sector profits improved.
• While October’s data is more upbeat than the year- over-year data implies, the recovery remains bumpy.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

28 November 2023 China+ Monitor China's Economic Rebalancing Strategy Informs Market Direction

• The CNY has appreciated thanks to USD weakness but also a warmer tone in U.S.-China relations.
• The tech SME BSE index has soared almost 50% this month, aligning with China’s rebalancing theme.
• The developer “whitelist” is a crucial step on the long, bumpy path to resolving the property sector’s woes.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 27 NOVEMBER 2023

The slower than expected improvement in industrial profits was likely due to base effects and faster rise in operating costs

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Flash PMI, Japan, November

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: National CPI, Japan, October

Japan’s headline inflation rose for the first time in four months, driven by accelerating energy, services and fresh food inflation

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 24 NOVEMBER 2023

Japan’s headline inflation rose for the first time in four months, driven by accelerating energy, services and fresh food inflation

Japanese manufacturing activity is hit by fading demand and production

Services activity is holding up, despite sagging new export orders

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

27 November 2023 China+ Monitor Japan's Core Inflation Basically Steady, Despite Headline Uptick

• Japan’s core inflation barely moved in October, despite a rise in headline inflation...
• ...Driven by the partial roll-back of energy subsidies, soaring hotel costs and fresh food inflation.
• The fall in the November flash manufacturing PMI confirms Japan’s sluggish recovery.

Duncan WrigleyChina+