Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Soft, but beware the risk of a snap-back in services inflation in May.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Will the Q1 strength in Indonesian sales carry over to Q2?
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We are merely nudging up our forecast for the April core CPI to 0.37%, from 0.35%, following the PPI data.
- Short-term movements in many equivalent PPI and CPI components are weakly correlated.
- We also look today for a 0.4% rise in total retail sales, consistent with near-zero real consumption growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Peru’s BCRP cut the policy rate by 25bp to 5.75% and delivered a dovish shift in the inflation outlook.
- Further easing will depend on inflation dynamics and its determinants; US Fed policy will also play a role.
- Inflation in Chile surprised to the upside in April, which will force the BCCh to act with more caution.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in India continued to slip trivially in April, but we see some positive underlying trends in food.
- The RBI has a narrow window to start easing in Q3, with the room allowed by low core CPI set to vanish.
- Indonesian retail sales saw a promising Q1 revival, but hold judgement until Ramadan effects wane.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - Initial claims better at flagging labor market upturns than downturns
- EUROZONE - Rise in food inflation in April not the start of a new trend
- UK - June is live after MPC chops inflation forecasts
- CHINA+ - April data likely to show tentative improvement in China’s recovery
- EM ASIA - Weak consumers still point to a 2024 slowdown in the Philippines
- LATAM - Banxico keeps rates on hold and strikes a more hawkish tone
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- China consumer prices rose in April, after volatility in Q1 caused by holidays and base effects.
- The CPI changes were driven by higher energy and core inflation, but domestic demand was still feeble.
- The PBoC will use “flexible, precise and effective” monetary policy to promote reflation.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Indeed data show that EZ wage growth slowed further in April; a win for ECB doves.
- Catalonia election led to a win for PSC; can it garner a coalition to avoid a repeat election in the autumn?
- German services inflation will rise in May, as the Deutschland ticket falls out of the year-over-year rate.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Sharply falling LFS employment suggests the labour market is easing quickly.
- But those data are misleading, and PAYE jobs will be revised up; the labour market is easing gradually.
- The MPC needs to brace for another strong pay gain in April, but will likely cut in June nonetheless.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The consensus forecast for a 0.2% rise in the April core PPI is well-grounded, but big surprises are common.
- Tight credit is weighing heavily on small businesses; we expect another dip in the NFIB survey in April.
- NY Fed data suggest consumers are becoming more worried about job losses, pointing to higher layoffs.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s disinflation in April supports COPOM’s cautiously dovish stance in the near term…
- …But fiscal woes and external factors, particularly the US Fed, will continue to influence monetary policy.
- Rio Grande do Sul floods add to COPOM’s challenges and could alter the monetary policy outlook for H2.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- China’s Ministry of Finance yesterday announced ultra-long special-bond issuance will start on Friday.
- April’s credit data hit a wall, due to government-bond and bankers’ acceptances repayments .
- Rising government-bond issuance should lift bond yields and credit growth from May onwards.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Indian IP missed expectations in March, with growth slowing to 4.9%, from 5.6% in February…
- …More softness is likely this quarter, with trends at the margin unspectacular; ignore the rosy PMIs.
- An overdue payback in GDP growth to the tune of 0.6pp is likely in Q1, based purely on the IP signal.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Investor sentiment has further to climb, judging by the impressive rally in equities so far this month.
- Rising investor sentiment signals a continued rise in the PMIs, but seasonality suggests otherwise.
- All eyes on detailed services inflation this week for evidence that the fever is breaking.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- CPI inflation likely fell to 2.0% in April, from 3.2% in March, 0.1pp lower than the MPC forecast.
- Ofgem’s utility-price-cap cut as well as slowing goods and food inflation chop 95bp off inflation.
- We expect services inflation to decline to 5.4% in April, as indexed price rises are lower than in 2023.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Food inflation remains frustratingly sticky; clearer signs that core has bottomed-out.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Food inflation remains frustratingly sticky; clearer signs that core has bottomed-out.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Despite tick-up in China CPI, demand is still weak; Producers still battle deflation
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Chinese producers still battle deflation
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China's big money and credit misses reflect fund diversion and slow government bond issuance, rather than shifts in underlying credit demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
