- In one line: Still uncomfortably weak enough for the MPC to cut rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
One big jump is not a trend, but a rising trend is now due
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: Encouraging as higher mortgage rates slow price inflation only a little.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Making peace with the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Making peace with the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Only modest improvement in China's headline exports; imports rise in anticipation of stimulus impact; Japanese broad wages yet to turn around
Duncan WrigleyChina+
A very quiet start to the year for the Philippine economy, especially in private domestic demand
Malaysian retail sales growth rises in March, despite a drop in wholesale growth
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Brazil — Headwinds amid shifting US rate outlook
- Mexico — Facing challenges amid elevated interest rates
- Chile — Improved outlook, but inflation risks linger
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: China’s FX reserves fell sharply in April, thanks to a stronger dollar and a record rise in US yields
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: Export recovery still on track, despite weaker headlines.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Weak, but output still rose in Q1 overall.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German industry came out of recession in Q1, will it last?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The H2 2023 recovery in Philippine sales hit a big speed-bump in Q1
Not the kind of deficit reduction we’d like to see
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We see a sharp downturn in payrolls soon, despite the rock-bottom level of initial jobless claims.
- Claims tend to lead payrolls during an upturn, but deteriorate alongside payrolls during a downturn.
- Revisions to payrolls are uncorrelated with the initial response rate; April's weak initial print will survive.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Inflation in Taiwan surprisingly fell in April, as fears over the electricity-tariff hike proved overblown…
- …But slowing goods disinflation and sticky services inflation will make a further moderation tougher.
- Philippine inflation also shocked to the downside in April; a June rate cut is still live.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ industry was a drag on GDP growth in Q1, despite German industry coming out of recession.
- February data confirm services led the rebound in EZ GDP in Q1 and will stay in the driving seat for now.
- The boost from construction appears to be reversing already, and the fall in the PMI in April bodes ill.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect PAYE employment to rise 20K in April, and March’s fall to be revised smaller.
- The jobless rate should rise to 4.3%, and private-sector regular pay will gain 0.4% month-to-month.
- Wages will likely beat the MPC’s forecast but preserve the picture of a gradually easing labour market.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Construction growth back with a bang.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Retail sales still went nowhere in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Weak private car sales suggest consumer caution.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
