Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- China’s Ministry of Finance yesterday announced ultra-long special-bond issuance will start on Friday.
- April’s credit data hit a wall, due to government-bond and bankers’ acceptances repayments .
- Rising government-bond issuance should lift bond yields and credit growth from May onwards.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Indian IP missed expectations in March, with growth slowing to 4.9%, from 5.6% in February…
- …More softness is likely this quarter, with trends at the margin unspectacular; ignore the rosy PMIs.
- An overdue payback in GDP growth to the tune of 0.6pp is likely in Q1, based purely on the IP signal.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Investor sentiment has further to climb, judging by the impressive rally in equities so far this month.
- Rising investor sentiment signals a continued rise in the PMIs, but seasonality suggests otherwise.
- All eyes on detailed services inflation this week for evidence that the fever is breaking.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- CPI inflation likely fell to 2.0% in April, from 3.2% in March, 0.1pp lower than the MPC forecast.
- Ofgem’s utility-price-cap cut as well as slowing goods and food inflation chop 95bp off inflation.
- We expect services inflation to decline to 5.4% in April, as indexed price rises are lower than in 2023.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Food inflation remains frustratingly sticky; clearer signs that core has bottomed-out.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Food inflation remains frustratingly sticky; clearer signs that core has bottomed-out.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Despite tick-up in China CPI, demand is still weak; Producers still battle deflation
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Chinese producers still battle deflation
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China's big money and credit misses reflect fund diversion and slow government bond issuance, rather than shifts in underlying credit demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Back with a bang, upside risks to our growth forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Soft, as we cautioned, and the big picture isn’t looking great either.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Soft, as we cautioned, and the big picture isn’t looking great either.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Well below consensus, will Q1 GDP be revised down?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Inflation continues to fall rapidly.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation continues to fall rapidly.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation continues to fall rapidly.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- GDP grew 0.6% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, the strongest since Q4 2021.
- The recovery has been broad-based across sectors and will continue as consumers spend rising income.
- Strong growth shows interest rates are likely not as restrictive as the MPC is factoring in.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Polls point to more seats for the far-right in the European Parliament after June’s vote...
- ...This will have little bearing on policy, even where the EU has exclusive competencies, such as trade.
- Any hard-line recommendations from far-right MEPs will likely be watered down by the majority.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- China’s industrial output likely picked up steam in April, thanks to a modest export rise.
- Falling auto sales probably hit overall retail sales growth, with buyers waiting for further price cuts.
- Government bond issuance should be stepped up from May, heeding clear top-down policy direction.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Taiwan’s export recover y is increasingly dependent on a continuation of US investment in AI.
- BNM is now likely to be on hold for the rest of 2024, as planned subsidy cuts bring upside risks to CPI.
- Falling real wage growth in Malaysia should soon star t dragging noticeably on retail sales growth.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
