Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)
- Business CapEx looks to have stalled at the start of Q4, hit by rates and tight credit conditions.
- Equipment spending is on course to fall for a second straight quarter, with only modest gains elsewhere.
- Jobless claims surprised to the downside last week, but we expect a rebound in this week’s report.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- U.S. - The Pre-conditions for 2% Inflation are Mostly in Place
- EUROZONE- The EZ inflation data remain consistent with a March cut,to us
- U.K. - CPI Inflation Falling Quickly Enough for the MPC to Start Easing in Q2
- CHINA+ - China’s Property Developers Continue to Flounder
- EM ASIA - Collapse in Imports Saves Thai Q3 GDP from Complete Disaster
- LATAM - Milei’s Victory Presages Radical Change in Argentina; Will It Be Good?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The upturn in jobless claims bears close attention, though it’s much too soon to panic.
- Ignore the wild durable goods headline; core capex orders are rising, but other data are less benign.
- Consumers’ sentiment likely will respond to cheaper gasoline; will inflation expectations do the same?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
THE FED IS DONE, AND WILL START EASING IN SPRING...
- ...BUT THE FOMC WON’T ABANDON OPTIONALITY JUST YET
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Homebase small business employment data point to a hefty rebound in November payrolls...
- ...But the margin of error in all payroll forecasts is huge; the seasonals are an intractable problem.
- No bottom yet for existing home sales, but supply is edging up, and valuations are falling as incomes rise.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The supply-side factors we wanted to see in order to push inflation back down have all now normalized…
- Excess demand is the last piece of the jigsaw; the lagged hit from the Fed’s hike will take care of it.
- As demand moderates, gross margins will fall, pushing inflation back to target, and perhaps below it.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Layoffs hit 12-week high, but remain below cycle peaks, for now
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The rebound in jobless claims in recent weeks is not yet definitive evidence of a shift in the trend.
- The multi-family housing construction boom is over, though single-family starts are still rising.
- The steep drops in manufacturing output and homebuilder sentiment reported yesterday won’t last.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The House Continuing Resolution kicks the can down the road to January and February; it solves nothing.
- October's retail sales numbers are consistent with a clear slowing in Q4 consumption growth.
- PPI disinflation continues; the October numbers, alongside the CPI, signal a 0.25% core PCE print.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
