Vietnam’s export recovery remains intact, heading into 2024
The contradictory headline rates aside, retail sales growth is clearly regaining momentum
No power price pop to see in November CPI
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoT finally hit pause yesterday after eight straight hikes, leaving the policy rate, at 2.50%...
- ...We continue to expect 50bp of easing next year; the Bank is behind the curve on GDP and CPI.
- Vietnam’s growth recovery is becoming more broad-based; we now expect Q4 GDP of 5.4%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
PUBLIC SPENDING CAN’T RESCUE THE PH LONG TERM
- ...Q3 GDP AND OCTOBER CPI MAKE THE BOT LOOK FOOLISH
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thai exports and imports in October grew year-over-year—together—for the first time in 13 months.
- But downside risks to exports prevail, and oil effects are largely behind the return of import growth.
- Malaysian inflation cooled further to 1.8% in October, from 1.9%, dropping to a 29-month low.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
ASEAN is carrying the nascent recovery in Thai exports on its back
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Probably already regretting the October hike.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Probably already regretting the October hike.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- BI stood pat yesterday after October’s surprise hike; we maintain that easing is just around the corner.
- We no longer expect a fourth 50bp rate cut from the SBV, with M2 growth now clearly turning a corner.
- Jump in Singaporean inflation in October should not distract from a likely sharp drop in November.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Thailand fell to 1.5% in Q3, from 1.8% in Q2, missing the consensus for a bounce...
- ...Quarterly growth firmed up, but only because imports hit a wall; the destocking cycle has begun.
- We have cut our GDP outlook and still see a further slowdown in 2024 to 2.2%, from 2.4% this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A massive, but perverse, net trade boost saves Thai Q3 GDP from a complete car crash
Export growth in Malaysia jumps even, as it remains flat in nominal terms
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP held its target reverse repo rate at 6.50% yesterday, following October’s out-of-cycle hike...
- ...Its hawkish blind spot fails to recognise that policy will tighten markedly in 2024 even if it stays on hold.
- Two-way trade growth in Indonesia continued to recover in October, but the devil is in the detail.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A sensible pause, after October’s rash out-of-cycle hike.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A sensible pause, after October’s rash out-of-cycle hike.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s trade deficit plunged to an historic low of -$31.5B in October, due partly to painful seasonals.
- Negative oil effects will soon reverse, and we welcome the October bounce in non-oil imports.
- Upstream price pressures remain benign, making soon-to-be-sticky CPI inflation easier to swallow.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Why we aren’t panicking about the record deficit.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A solid start to Q4 for exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- We expect India’s Q3 GDP at end-November to show a big drop in growth to 4.2%, from 7.8% in Q2.
- The flattering boost from discrepancies in Q2 is unreliable, and consumption was weak in Q3.
- Disinflation, which continued in October, will likely partly unwind in the short run, due to onion prices.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia