An uptrend in initial claims is probably still in the pipeline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: A poor end to Q1, but the underlying trend remains positive.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global
- In one line: A poor end to Q1, but the underlying trend remains positive.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
In one line: Korean export recovery continues, thanks to resilient US and Chinese demand
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Ooof a big increase, but inflation is still within the SNB’s target range.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line : Grim, but the reality on the ground is likely better.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line : Grim, but the reality on the ground is likely better.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Food inflation finally turns a corner; more of this, please.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Export-oriented manufacturers continue to underperform.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Korean manufacturers are highly bullish, despite mounting cost pressures
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Export-oriented ASEAN manufacturers continue to underperform
Food inflation in Indonesia finally turns a corner; more of this, please
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The turnaround in ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI remains largely intact, despite the April slip…
- …But the region’s more export-oriented countries are still underperforming; orders remain in the red.
- Indonesian inflation saw a positive downside surprise in April, as food inflation turned a corner.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Both the Homebase data and the NFIB survey signal slower job growth in April, but the numbers are noisy.
- One softer print would not trigger a Fed response, but it would make the May number critical for markets.
- The ISM services survey likely will provide further reassurance on the underlying inflation outlook.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Fed likely will start easing in late Q3; LatAm policymakers will have a more difficult task ahead.
- Colombia’s BanRep met expectations with a ‘bold’ 50bp rate cut; we expect more of the same.
- Chile’s economy faced challenges at the end of Q1, yet the fundamental trend remains positive.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Korea’s April manufacturing PMI points to improving output and demand trends year-to-date.
- But burgeoning cost pressures are making firms cautious on hiring and inventory purchasing.
- The BoK is likely to worry about these cost pressures disrupting the slowing trend in consumer inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Swiss inflation rose in April on the back of a broad- based increase in prices...
- ...It should fall again to near 1% in coming months, though, so the SNB can continue its cutting cycle.
- We continue to look for more rate cuts this year than the consensus; 75bp-worth.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation and growth have beaten MPC forecasts, but market rate expectations have overreacted.
- So, next week’s new MPC forecasts will signal earlier and more cuts than the market is currently pricing.
- We expect the MPC to vote 8-to-1 to keep rates onhold and still look for the first cut in June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Two corrections starts to become a trend.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
