In one line: Continued hawkishness suggests May still is the earliest plausible date for the first rate cut.
Samuel TombsGlobal
- In one line: A 50bp rate cut, as expected.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: A clear dovish shift; rate cuts are next.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: A clear dovish shift; rate cuts are next.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: The next move is a cut, and could come as early as Q1.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: The next move is a cut, and could come as early as Q1.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The seven-month bout of WPI deflation in India comes to an end
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The ECB lowered its inflation forecast in December; they will come down further in March, by a lot.
- Ms. Lagarde pushed back against our forecast for a March cut, but we think she’ll come around.
- The SNB stands pat, but sends a clear signal that it is now done raising rates; will it cut in March?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Brazil’s COPOM delivered another widely expected 50bp cut to the Selic rate and kept a dovish tone.
- The Board, however, signalled that this pace of easing would continue in Q1, as upside risks remain.
- We expect bolder action ahead, though, as economic activity struggles and external conditions stabilise.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Retail sales data suggest Q4 consumption is on course for a 2½% gain, but that could change.
- Households’ real liquid assets are back to their pre-Covid trend; the pandemic excess is gone.
- Manufacturing production likely rebounded strongly last month after the UAW strike, but the trend is flat.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas left its target reverse repo rate at 6.50% this month, as expected.
- The Board’s statement still sounds very hawkish, but we think this facade is starting to crumble…
- …Governor Remolona has been MIA, and we see no belief behind their 4.2% inflation forecast for 2024.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Underlying the softer-than-expected November bounce in Indian inflation is fading food pressures…
- …We’re happy with our below-consensus 3.5% call for 2024, especially with core inflation still falling.
- We see no reason to celebrate IP growth leaping to a 16-month high in October; it’s just Diwali noise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Chair Powell says the Fed is done—probably—but still doesn’t want to talk about when they’ll ease.
- The inflation forecasts still look very cautious, and likely will be undershot.
- Headline November retail sales constrained by cheaper gas, but the core likely was soft too.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexico — Rebounding, and the outlook is benign
- Argentina — All eyes on Milei’s first steps
- Chile — A gradual recovery, but hurdles remain
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- German politicians agreed to cut spending to stick to the constitutional debt brake...
- ...But it looks like a stop-gap solution to us, and fractures within the coalition will likely widen from here.
- EU fiscal rules return next year; in what form remains to be seen, but they will be laxer than before.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
