Pantheon Publications

18 December 2023 LatAm Monitor Policymakers Remain Cautious, Despite Fed's Shift

• LatAm central banks pushed back on aggressive rate-cut expectations, despite the Fed’s policy shift.
• Banxico doubled down on its cautious approach, but we still think that rate cuts will come soon.
• Peru’s BCRP also embraced prudence, but bolder action will be possible in Q1, El Niño permitting.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

18 December 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesian Imports Will Continue to Outperform Exports Next Year

• The slump in Indonesian export growth eased more in November, with the commodities hit still fading…
• …This dynamic is helping imports, too, masking the grow th slowdown in consumer and capital goods.
• The crash in Philippine exports in October isn’t as bad as it looks, while the import jump is deceptive.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

18 December 2023 China+ Monitor China's Recovery Makes Glacial Progress in November

• November data show China’s consumption demand stagnating as winter closes in.
• The headline jump in industrial output is misleading, driven by utilities and base effects.
• A sharp fall in existing-home prices likely indicates a supply surge as investors offload proper ties.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

18 December 2023 Eurozone Monitor Slide in the PMI Confirms Tough End to 2023 for EZ Economy

• Friday’s PMIs confirmed the EZ economy was still is in a rut in December, pointing to falling GDP in Q4.
• The PMI input price component suggests EZ headline inflation will stabilise at just under 2% in H1 24.
• Accelerating third quarter growth in hourly labour costs is grist on ECB hawks’ mills.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 December 2023 UK Monitor The Economy is Finally Starting to Turn a Corner

• The composite PMI rose in December to a six-month high; consumers’ confidence is near a two-year high.
• This pick-up reflects rising real household disposable income, and possibly slowing savings replenishment.
• The MPC, however, needn’t stay very restrictive; the job market is loosening, and inflation pressures are fading.

Samuel TombsUK

PM Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, November

Unwinding of the UAW strike hit boosts manufacturing, but output ex-autos remains weak.

US

EZ Datanote: Labour Costs & Trade, Eurozone, Q3/October

In one line: Still-strong growth in labour costs; net trade on track for a rise in Q4?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs, December 2023

In one line: Further recovery should ease recession fears.

Samuel TombsGlobal

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, December 2023

• In one line: Further recovery should ease recession fears.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. GfK Consumer's Confidence Survey, December

• In one line: Recovery should gather momentum next year. 

UK

Global Datanote: Advance Inflation & PMIs, France, November/December 2023

In one line: Rapidly falling inflation and recessionary PMIs.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, December 2023

In one line: The EZ is in recession. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, December 2023

In one line: Consistent with our call that Germany is in a shallow recession.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

China+ Datanote: Flash manufacturing PMI, Japan, December

Japanese manufacturing activity weakens but services activity rises

Duncan WrigleyChina+

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, December 2023

In one line: Consistent with our call that Germany is in a shallow recession.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, November

• In one line: We told you not to panic about October’s record deficit; you’re welcome.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & PMIs, France, November/December 2023

In one line: Rapidly falling inflation and recessionary PMIs.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 DECEMBER 2023: China remains at a low ebb

China's economy treads water in November; steeper existing home price fall points to market clearing
Japanese manufacturing activity weakens but services rise

Duncan WrigleyChina+