A massive, but perverse, net trade boost saves Thai Q3 GDP from a complete car crash
Export growth in Malaysia jumps even, as it remains flat in nominal terms
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The recovery in construction activity is stalling, for now.
US
In one line: The path to a March rate cut remains clear, to us.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: The path to a March rate cut remains clear, to us.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Solid, but the headline likely will roll over soon.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: We expect a recovery in the coming months, driven by a rebound in real incomes.
UK
Momentum in Singaporean exports builds, supported by base effects
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Colombia’s economy dodged a technical recession in Q3, but growth prospects remain gloomy.
- Elevated political uncertainty and stiflingly high interest rates continue to drag down investment.
- Conditions likely will improve in Q1, as BanRep starts to ease rates, but Petro’s policy will remain a threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The supply-side factors we wanted to see in order to push inflation back down have all now normalized…
- Excess demand is the last piece of the jigsaw; the lagged hit from the Fed’s hike will take care of it.
- As demand moderates, gross margins will fall, pushing inflation back to target, and perhaps below it.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Singaporean export growth continued to recover in October, albeit boosted by friendly base effects...
- …The improvement in nominal terms appears more modest, as external demand remains weak.
- Overall, though, trade should provide a larger boost to Q4 GDP, on the back of this improvement.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in the EZ is falling quickly, and the threat from a rebound in energy inflation is receding.
- Core inflation remains on track to undershoot the ECB’s September forecasts, especially in Q1.
- Sticky wages is a risk to our call for easing early next year, but the path to a March cut is still clear.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Retail sales fell for the second straight month in October, though that partly reflected the warmer, wetter weather.
- But real incomes look set to recover, as pay growth outstrips CPI inflation and cost-of-living grants resume.
- Some of this extra cash will be saved, but people will be able to spend more too; retail sales will recover in Q4.
Samuel TombsUK
Likely to improve from here, but only very slowly.
US
Most of the October weakness reflects the UAW strike; expect a November rebound.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)US
Layoffs hit 12-week high, but remain below cycle peaks, for now
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The rebound in jobless claims in recent weeks is not yet definitive evidence of a shift in the trend.
- The multi-family housing construction boom is over, though single-family starts are still rising.
- The steep drops in manufacturing output and homebuilder sentiment reported yesterday won’t last.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Opinion polls are pointing to a knife-edge result in this Sunday’s presidential election in Argentina.
- Uncertainty is high, but the near-term outlook is clear: expect an FX sell-off, high inflation and recession.
- The next president will have a difficult job getting the economy back on track.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BSP held its target reverse repo rate at 6.50% yesterday, following October’s out-of-cycle hike...
- ...Its hawkish blind spot fails to recognise that policy will tighten markedly in 2024 even if it stays on hold.
- Two-way trade growth in Indonesia continued to recover in October, but the devil is in the detail.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s Q3 real GDP was weaker than expected, due to slower inventory growth and a rising deflator.
- Private domestic demand remains sluggish, with consumption and investment missing expectations.
- Interest rates will be kept low for longer, effectively delaying the end of the negative rate policy to Q2.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Higher real interest rates will likely keep precautionary savings high, raising the savings rate further...
- ...If it rises gradually beyond our baseline by end- 2025, say to 18%, spending would fall next year...
- ...But it would need to rise much further, and much quicker, for the EZ recession we expect to last longer.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
