Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

6 December 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor India's PMIs Undeniably Rolling Over, GDP Growth to Follow Soon

India’s PMIs combined, are the softest they’ve been in a year, pointing clearly to a GDP payback in Q4.
Food inflation in the Philippines is reversing, but don’t forget about entrenched core disinflation.
Singaporean retail sales growth has fallen to an eight-month low, but fundamentals remain strong.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 December 2023 LatAm Monitor Brazil's GDP Growth Is Weakening, and the Near-Term Outlook Is Dim

Brazil’s economy dodged a contraction in Q3, despite the drag from rising real interest rates.
Solid private consumption, for now, and resilient exports are overshadowing the capex recession.
The outlook is deteriorating, as rates continue to stifle economic activity, but 2024 will be better.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

6 December 2023 UK Monitor PMI Data Point to Benign Mix of Positive GDP Growth and Falling Inflation

The composite PMI topped 50 in November for the first time since July and is likely understating GDP growth.
S&P’s bespoke seasonal adjustment process is depressing the PMI; public-sector output will rise in Q4.
S&P’s survey also signals slowing service price rises and flat employment; a May Bank Rate cut is still in play.

6 December 2023 Eurozone Monitor ECB Will Cut Rates in H1 2024; the Only Question Is When

An ECB pivot is underway; it will be confirmed at next week’s policy meeting, and by the new forecasts.
The January HICP report and wage data remain risks to our call for a first rate cut in March.
Early data from France and Spain suggest euro area manufacturing slowed further at the start of Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 December 2023 Global Monitor UK inflation in November likely held below the MPC's forecast

U.S. - Chair Powell’s Optionality Line is Nominal, Not Real; they’re Done
EUROZONE- The ECB’s Hawkish Stance on Interest Rates is About to Change
U.K. - BRC and Eurozone Data Suggest CPI Inflation Fell Again in November
CHINA+ - Chinese Manufacturing Reports Weakening Demand
EM ASIA - Make What You Will of India’s Absurd Q3 GDP... We’re Not Moved
LATAM - An Inflection Point, Though Anaemic, for the Chilean Economy

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

5 December 2023 US Monitor Quits Signal Slower Wage Gains

The quits rate fell much further than implied by the drop in unemployment during the Great Rehiring…
…It correctly signalled that wage gains would rocket, but now it tells the opposite story.
ISM services has tracked sideways in recent months, net; the pattern likely continued in November.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

5 December 2023 Eurozone Monitor Swiss Inflation Slides; SNB Can Hold Fire Again Next Week

Swiss inflation fell in November and has now been in line with the SNB’s target for six months...
...It will likely slide further in H1 next year, after a probable small base-effects driven rise in December.
Coupled with weak growth, the stars should align for the SNB to start cutting its key rate by March.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 December 2023 UK Monitor High-Frequency Data Show Labour Market Weakening at a Faster Pace

Redundancy notifications jumped in mid-November; the rise isn’t just due to one big business failure.
Both the Adzuna and Indeed measures of job vacan- cies also have fallen during the fourth quarter.
Some measures of employment intentions are robust, but job hoarding might ease as unemployment rises.

Samuel TombsUK