In one line: Depressed, but the second derivative is turning.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Outperforming the EZ and defying the slump in the surveys.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Korean trade is weaker than the headline export growth figure suggests
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The erratic Caixin PMI is more optimistic than the official gauge
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's erratic Caixin PMI rises
Korean exports are weaker than the headline figure
Japanese manufacturing falters
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Adverse food price base effects will now unwind.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Only a small respite in November.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Only a small respite for ASEAN manufacturing in November
The mean-reversion in Indian’s manufacturing PMI remains largely intact
Adverse food price base effects in Indonesia will now unwind
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Chair Powell’s heart is no longer in the optionality story; he repeated it Friday but it’s no longer realistic.
- The continued shrinkage of the M2 money supply is disconcerting, even for non-monetarists.
- The manufacturing sector is in the doldrums, and auto sales are now trending down.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Chile’s sub-par economic recovery continued in October, with the non-mining sector a key driver.
- The near-term outlook is benign, but indicators point to difficult times for capex further out.
- Peru’s disinflation gathered speed in November, opening the door to bolder rate cuts this month.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The respite for ASEAN manufacturing in November won’t last long, with demand still deteriorating…
- …Export-oriented countries continue to cause the most misery; supply-side issues are re-emerging.
We no longer expect BI to start cutting this month, following the upside surprise in
- November CPI.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ manufacturing PMIs suggest that industrial production remains on track for a decline in Q4.
- Manufacturing employment is now falling steadily; will it pull the broader labour market down?
- It’s early days, but we’re starting to feel excited about better-looking manufacturing surveys in Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The leap in the Chicago PMI likely is noise, not signal' a modest recovery in home sales lies ahead.
US
- In one line: Q3 was better than Q2, but the headline continues to be flattered absurdly by statistical discrepancies.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: ECB hawks are about to eat humble pie.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: ECB hawks are about to eat humble pie.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
MONETARY EASING CONTINUES, AS INFLATION FALLS...
- ...THIS WILL PREVENT A PROTRACTED ECONOMIC DOWNTREND
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
