Don’t worry too much about the October crash in Philippine exports
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- German manufacturing faces a host of challenges, but the country isn’t de-industrialising, yet.
- Politics are at odds with economic objectives in Germany; the latter will drive the former, eventually.
- Employment and investment in machinery are the key manufacturing variables to watch in 2024.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The FOMC likely will cut its inflation and interest forecasts, but will push back against easing talk.
- Core disinflation pressure remains intense, but core services inflation is still too high.
- PPI margin inflation is now close to zero, but it could easily fall well below zero next year.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- U.S. - The FOMC will Push Back Against Talk of Near-Term Easing
- EUROZONE- The ECB Will Lower its Inflation Forecasts This Week, but How Far?
- U.K. - MPC Unlikely to Endorse the Decline in Rate Expectations Just Yet
- CHINA+ - Japan’s Downward GDP Revision Reflects Weak Private Consumption
- EM ASIA - Pushing Our Call for the First RBI Rate Cut to April
- LATAM - Brazil’s GDP Growth Is Weakening, and the Near-Term Outlook Is Dim
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- We look for a 0.2% November core CPI print, but a 0.3% increase is more likely than 0.1%.
- The bigger picture, though, is that core disinflation is well underway, and has much further to run.
- The NFIB index likely rebounded in November, but the details of the survey are what matter.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Indonesian retail sales grow th has made a steady recovery lately, but historically it remains sub-par…
- … A return to the red in Q1 can’t be ruled out; catchup growth will weaken and confidence is fading.
- Malaysian retail sales grow th drops to a 22-month low, as slowing real wage growth takes its toll.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BTP-Bund spread is currently around 175bp, but we think it will fall to 100bp by end-2024...
- ..In line with the current spread between Spanish government-bond yields and Bund yields...
- ...Faster QT than we anticipate risks preventing the spread from falling to 100bp.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Worsening decline in producer prices is symptomatic of excess supply, amid weak demand at home and abroad
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Core inflation indicates steady if sluggish demand, despite worsening headline figure
Worsening decline in producer prices is symptomatic of excess supply
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Encouraging start to Q4 for Indonesian retail sales, but dark clouds loom
Weak start to Malaysian private consumption in Q4
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Sharp decline in inflation expectations is welcome news for the Fed.
US
In one line: A big decline; base effects in energy point to a snap-back in December.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Japan's revised Q3 GDP reveals weak private consumption demand
Nominal wage growth picked up in October
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Still not showing any appetite for normalisation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
