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24 April 2017 It Looks Like Mr. Macron Against Mrs. Le Pen in the Second Round (Publication Centre)

The initial "official estimate" of the French presidential election--released 20.00 CET--suggest that the runoff will be between the centre-right Emmanuel Macron and Front National's Marine Le Pen. This is consistent with opinion polls. The average of five early estimates also suggests that Mr. Macron won the vote with 23.1% of the vote against Mrs. Le Pen's 22.5%.

5 May 2017 Mr. Macron should be able to move into the Élysée on Monday (Publication Centre)

This weekend will bring closure to an extraordinary presidential election campaign in France. The polls correctly predicted the first result, and assuming they are right in the second round too, Mr. Macron will comfortably beat Ms. Le Pen.

8 May 2017 Mr. Macron Easily Defeats Ms. Le Pen: Now the Hard Work Begins (Publication Centre)

Early results suggest that Mr. Macron has comfortably beat Marine Le Pen to become French president, defying a leak of emails and other documents from his En Marche campaign over the weekend. The final results won't be published until Monday morning, but the initial estimate indicates that Mr. Macron will edge Ms. Le Pen by 65.1% to 34.9%.

12 May 2017 Will Mr. Macron Unleash Animal Spirits in Eurozone Equities? (Publication Centre)

Emmanuel Macron's victory in France has lifted investors' hopes that the good times in the Eurozone economy and equity markets are here to stay. On the face of it, we share markets' optimism. Mr. Macron and his opposite number in Germany--our base case is that Ms. Merkel will remain Chancellor--will form a strong pro-EU axis in the core of the Eurozone.

9 May 2017 Two Answers and Many Questions, as President Macron Settles in (Publication Centre)

Mr. Macron's victory in France answers two questions for markets, at least in the short run. Firstly, France will stay in the Eurozone, and Mr. Macron will not call a referendum on EU membership. Mr. Macron has come to power with a mandate to strengthen economic integration and co-operation between Eurozone economies.

27 September 2018 China's Macro Stance is Loosening is it Business as Usual (Publication Centre)

In yesterday's Monitor, we laid out how conditions last year were conducive to Chinese deleveraging, and how the debt ratio fell for the first time since the financial crisis.

23 March 2018 PBoC Bides its Time on Rates, but Macroprudential Tightening is on (Publication Centre)

The PBoC hiked its 7-day reverse repo rate by 5bp yesterday, stating that the move was a response to the latest Fed hike.

28 November 2018 Is Mr Macron About to Lose to the Street Like his Predecessors (Publication Centre)

Our hopes that tax cuts and lower energy inflation would lift French household consumption in Q4 were badly dented by yesterday's consumer sentiment report.

29 January 2019 Is it a Good Idea for Markets to Ignore Poor Macro Data in the EZ (Publication Centre)

In the last few weeks markets have been treated to the news that euro area industrial production crashed towards the end of Q4, warning that GDP growth failed to rebound at the end of 2018 from an already weak Q3.

5 December 2018 Mr. Macron Blinks in the Face of Violence and Chaos in Paris (Publication Centre)

The violent protests in France claimed their first victims over the weekend, providing sombre evidence of the severity of the situation for the government.

9 July. 2015 Steep Wall of Worry in EZ Equities, But Macro Indicators Say "Buy" (Publication Centre)

Bond market volatility and political turmoil in Greece have been the key drivers of an abysmal second quarter for Eurozone equities. Recent panic in Chinese markets has further increased the pressure, adding to the wall of worry for investors. A correction in stocks is not alarming, though, following the surge in Q1 from the lows in October. The total return-- year-to-date in euros--for the benchmark MSCI EU ex-UK index remains a respectable 11.4%.

20 June. 2016 Brazil's Macro Conditions are Improving - Rate Cuts During H2? (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recession carried over into the beginning of Q2, but with diminishing intensity. The IBC-BR economic activity index, a monthly proxy for GDP, fell 5.0% year-over-year in April, up from a revised 6.4% contraction in March. The index's underlying trend has improved in recent months, suggesting that the economy is turning around, slowly.

12 December 2018 Mr. Macron Signals a Policy Shift in France, and for the EZ too? (Publication Centre)

The outlook for the French economy is changing on a daily basis these days.

4 Dec 2019 EURUSD is Poised to Move, The Case for a Rise is Strengthening (Publication Centre)

Implied volatility on the euro is now so low that we're compelled to write about it, mainly because we think the macroeconomic data are hinting where the euro goes next.

6 November 2017 Pressure is Building in Venezuela, the Default Clock is Ticking (Publication Centre)

Macroeconomic and financial conditions in Venezuela are deteriorating at an accelerating pace.

29 Apr. 2016 Brazil's Central Bank Lays The Groundwork for a Rate Cut in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's macroeconomic scenario is becoming easier to navigate for the central bank. Both actual inflation and expectations are slowing rapidly, as shown in our first chart. And since the March BCB monetary policy meeting, the BRL has appreciated about 10% against the USD, while commodity prices and EM sentiment have also improved markedly.

22 June 2017 Are we headed toward an extension of the U.K.'s EU membership? (Publication Centre)

The EU has had a better start to the Brexit negotiations than its counterpart across the Channel. The risk of disagreement within the EU on the details with of the U.K.'s exit is high, but the Continent has presented a united front so far, mainly because Mr. Macron and Mrs. Merkel agree on the broad objectives. They have no interest in punishing the U.K., but they are also keen to show that exiting the EU has costs for a country which leaves.

2 November 2017 2017 The ECB Probably Should Lower its Inflation Target, but it Won't (Publication Centre)

Policymakers and macroeconomic forecasters at the ECB will be doing some soul-searching this week. GDP growth in the euro area accelerated to a punchy 2.5% year-over-year in Q3, and unemployment dipped to a cyclical low of 8.9%.

21 April 2017 Faites vos Jeux! Anything is Possible in France this Weekend (Publication Centre)

This weekend's first round of the French presidential election is too close to call. Our first chart indicates that a runoff between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron remains the best bet. But the statistical uncertainty inherent in the predictions, and the proximity of the two remaining candidates--the centre-right Mr. Fillon and far-left Mr. Melenchon-- mean that this is now effectively a four-horse race.

16 May 2017 Eurozone Reforms Likely are Coming, but Patience is Needed (Publication Centre)

Mr. Macron will be in Berlin today with the message that France wants a strong Eurozone and a tight relationship with Germany. Friendly overtures between Paris and Berlin are good news for investors; they reduce political uncertainty while increasing the chance that the economic recovery will continue. But it is too early to get excited about closer fiscal coordination, let alone a common EZ fiscal policy and bond issuance.

25 April 2017 Mr. Macron Hasn't Won Yet, Despite what Markets are Saying (Publication Centre)

Markets are trading like Emmanuel Macron has already moved into the Élysée Palace. Eurozone equities soared at the open yesterday, lead by the French banks, 10-year yields in France plunged, and the euro jumped. This makes sense given the signal from the polls. They were correct in their prediction of Mr. Macron's victory on Sunday, and they have been consistently forecasting that he will comfortably beat Mrs. Le Pen in the runoff.

CNBC - Tariffs is the big worry, says Pantheon Macroeconomic's Ian Shepherdson (Media Centre)

Julian Emanuel of BTIG and Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss markets ahead of the open.

Bloomberg - Macron Suspends Planned Fuel-Tax Hike as Protests Rage (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, examines the French government's move to suspend a planned fuel-tax hike that sparked three weeks of protests.

Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast - February 25th 2020 (Media Centre)

Ben Laidler, Tower Hudson Research CEO, thinks U.S. equities are in much better shape than many people think they are. Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist, thinks the Fed could be close to the point of taking action on the coronavirus. Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist, says market uncertainty makes in almost impossible to take a three-year view. Dr. Peter Hotez, Baylor College of Medicine Dean, breaks down the most recent efforts to combat the coronavirus. Kevin Cirilli, Bloomberg Chief Washington Correspondent, says tonight's debate is most critical for Joe Biden.

Trading Global Markets Decoded Podcast - Coronavirus and the Chinese Economy (Media Centre)

Chief Asia Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics Freya Beamish discusses her views on the Chinese economy.

Bloomberg - Surveillance: Market Optimism with Shalett (Podcast) (Media Centre)

Freya Beamish, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Asia Economist, says the recovery in China is likely to underperform in the second half of the year.

Business Insider - Sweden has nearly 10 times the number of COVID-19-related deaths than its Nordic neighbors. Here's where they went wrong. (Media Centre)

Charts released by Pantheon Macroeconomics show that Sweden's cases have yet to plateau, while Norway's case count appears to be on a downslide.

CNBC - Nervous about what's coming down the line for U.S. Jobs, economist says (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, previews the U.S. Payroll data for June

Bloomberg Radio - Westminster: LibDems - Labour is Spend, Spend Spend (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs, Chief U.K. Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics crunches the figures from the manifestos and tracks sterling against the latest opinion polls.

Trading Global Markets Decoded Podcast - Path Forward for ECB and Eurozone with Economist Claus Vistesen (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics Claus Vistesen discusses his views on the path forward for the ECB and Eurozone.

CNBC - These are the stocks that will outperform if Macron wins (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen discussing the potential impact of the French Election Results on the Eurozone

About Us

Pantheon Macroeconomics' Chief Economist Dr. Ian Shepherdson provides unbiased, independent economic intelligence to financial market professionals.

Bloomberg - U.S. Economy 'Slowing for Sure' Into 4Q, Economist Shepherdson Says (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, examines the state of the U.S. economy. He speaks with Bloomberg's Tom Keen on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

Bloomberg - Trump to Face GOP Pushback on Consumer Goods Tariffs: Economist (Media Centre)

Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, and Christian Schulz, economics team director at Citigroup, discuss President Donald Trump's trade tariffs and their impact on the Chinese and U.S. economies.

Bloomberg - Economist Shepherdson Sees 'Perfect Storm-ette' Coming for Earnings (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, explains the issues he sees looming over corporate earnings. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

Bloomberg - BlackRock's Mateos Y Lago Says Learn to Live With Trade Deal Uncertainty (Media Centre)

Isabelle Mateos Y Lago, official institutions group deputy head at BlackRock, and Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discuss U.S.-China trade concerns and their impact on investing. They speak with Lisa Abramowicz on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

Bloomberg - Virus Causing Permanent, Lasting Damage to Jobs: Economist Shepherdson (Media Centre)

he services sector is seeing "job losses that will not be quickly recovered," says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, as he examines the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the U.S. labor market. He speaks with Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

CNBC - Coronavirus could see China GDP contract in first quarter: Strategist (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said investors shouldn't "downplay" the coronavirus.

Bloomberg - China's Economy an Incentive for Xi to Do a Trade Deal, Economist Says (Media Centre)

Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses how China's economy can influence a U.S. trade agreement and looks forward to U.S.-European trade talks.

CNBC - We shouldn't worry about the deficit right now, economist says (Media Centre)

David Bahnsen, managing partner and chief investment officer of the Bahnsen Group, and Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, join "Squawk Box" to discuss the markets and the government measures being taken to stimulate the economy amid the coronavirus outbreak.

CNBC - We were 'getting quite chirpy' about China before coronavirus outbreak, economist says (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

CNBC - Policymakers need to provide liquidity and support to businesses, economist says (Media Centre)

Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses how policymakers are responding to the coronavirus crisis.

CNBC - Here's how Trump's threats toward Iran and China could impact the economy (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss how the tensions between the U.S., Iran and China might impact the economy.

CNBC - The industrial economy is soft but the consumer is strong: Portfolio manager (Media Centre)

Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management, and Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, join "Squawk Box" to discuss the markets and the economy as the Fed gets set to kick off its two-day meeting on rates.

CNBC - Surge in liquidity the single biggest driver of the stock market, economist says (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the global economic impact of the coronavirus crisis.

CNBC - Markets worry Trump is juggling too many geopolitical issues... (Media Centre)

Scott Nations, president and CIO of Nations Shares, and Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, join "Squawk Box" to give their opinion on the market heading into a new week.

CNBC - Hard to see how US and China get to any kind of deal at this stage... (Media Centre)

Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, outlines her expectations from the impending Sino-U.S. trade talks.

CNBC - Why two experts don't expect surprises from the Fed (Media Centre)

Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab Center for Financial Research, and Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, sit down with "Squawk Box" to discuss what they expect of the Fed's announcement on it's monetary policy plan.

CNBC - Coronavirus: Effect on Chinese GDP a 'shocker', economist says (Media Centre)

Freya Beamish, Chief Asia Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the economic impact of coronavirus on China.

CNBC - 'Phase two' US-China trade deal "kicked out into long grass," economist says (Media Centre)

Freya Beamish, Chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the U.S.-China trade deal

CNBC - Economist: Georgia's coronavirus situation is comparable to Sweden's (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, joins "Squawk Box" to discuss what he thinks about Georgia's plan to reopen its economy and how the state's situation compares to some countries in Europe.

Bloomberg - World Bank Cuts Economic Outlook on China Pessimism (Media Centre)

Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the outlook for China's economy as the World Bank cut its forecast for global growth. The World Bank's report included a downward revision for China to 5.9%, which would be the first sub-6% reading since 1990. Beamish speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

CNBC - British public stuck with two 'dreadful' candidates for prime minister, economist says (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Wednesday that the televised debate between Johnson and Corbyn had been "disappointing."

CNBC The Fed is addressing the inflation rate (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist, and Vinay Pande, UBS Global Wealth Management head of trading strategies, join "Squawk on the Street" to discuss their forecast for the markets amid strong jobs data.

20 Jan. 2016 Venezuela Is Collapsing - LatAm's Star--Colombia--Is Merely Slowing (Publication Centre)

Commodity prices have started the year under further downward pressure. This is yet more negative news for LatAm, as most of the countries have failed to diversify, instead relying on oil or copper for a large share of exports and, critically, tax revenue. Venezuela is the biggest loser in the region from the oil hit, and, together with the worsening political and economic crisis, it has pushed the country even closer to the verge of collapse, threatening its debt payments. Venezuela's central bank last week released economic data for the first time since 2014, showing that inflation spiralled to 141% and that the economy shrank 4.5% in the first nine months of last year.

21 November 2018 The Curious Case of the Crash in the French Housing Market (Publication Centre)

The French economy has suffered from weakness in manufacturing this year, alongside the other major EZ economies.

20 Mar 2020 The ECB Gets in the Fight with a QE Program Worth More Than €1T (Publication Centre)

We have been on the ECB's case recently. The action taken at last week's official meeting--see here--fell short of market expectations, but more importantly, Ms. Lagarde's communication around the decisions was disastrous.

19 December 2018 The Fed will Hike, but the Dots Could Sting a Shift to Two isn't Certain (Publication Centre)

From a bird's-eye perspective, the argument for continued steady Fed rate hikes is clear.

19 Mar 2020 What Else Can the Chancellor do to Reinforce the Eventual Recovery? (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Sunak announced further emergency support measures for the economy on Tuesday and pledged to do more soon.

2 March 2017 Is it all over for Mr. Fillon? (Publication Centre)

The French presidential election campaign remains chaotic. Republican candidate François Fillon had to defend himself again yesterday as investigations into his potential misuse of public funds deepened. Mr. Fillon and his wife have now been summoned to court to explain themselves. Markets expected Mr. Fillon to resign as the Republican front-runner. Instead, he used his unscheduled media address to defiantly declare that he is staying in the race.

2 May 2017 Don't get too Excited by the April Jump in EZ Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Eurozone inflation pressures snapped back in April. Friday's advance report showed that headline inflation rose to 1.9% year-over-year, from 1.5% in March, lifted by a jump in the cor e rate to 1.2% from 0.7% the month before.

22 November 2017 What's the Case for Increased Fiscal Stimulus in the Eurozone? (Publication Centre)

The euro area's record-high external surplus has prompted commentators to suggest that the zone has room to loosen fiscal policy to support growth, or at least relax the deficit reduction rules.

25 August 2017 Sizzling Business Sentiment in France Signals Firm Q3 GDP (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of French business surveys contains hundreds of indicators, but its central story is comfortably simple.

25 Aug 2020 Now Should be a Great Time to Own Equities in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

If we analyse the Covid-19 shock as a normal downturn, the clock has now been reset on the business cycle, which in turn implies that it is a great time to be invested in EZ equities.

26 January 2017 The IFO Points to Solid GDP Growth in Germany, Despite Dip (Publication Centre)

The trend of consensus-beating EZ economic data was brought to a halt yesterday. The IFO business climate index in Germany slipped to a five-month low of 109.8 in January, from 111.0 in December, mainly due to a fall in the expectations index. But we are not alarmed. The dip in the headline comes after a run of strong data, and the IFO remains consistent with GDP growth of about 1.6% year-over-year.

26 July 2017 National Surveys are Not Bogged Down by Disappointing PMIs (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's national business surveys provided an optimistic counterbalance to the underwhelming PMIs on Monday, although they all suggest that the euro area economy is in good form.

26 Sept 2019 Another Month, Another Increase in French Consumer Confidence (Publication Centre)

Economic news in the Eurozone, and virtually everywhere else, has been mostly downbeat in the past few months, but French consumers are doing great.

24 June. 2016 Markets Wild After Brexit Vote, LatAm Currencies Under Pressure (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s unexpected vote for Brexit means a stronger USD for the foreseeable future, pressure on EM currencies and increasing risk premiums. LatAm fundamentals will a sideshow for some time. The focus will be on the currencies, which will be the main shock absorbers.

23 May 2017 How to Lift French GDP Growth to Above 1.5% Year-over-year (Publication Centre)

The recovery in the French economy since the sovereign debt crisis has been lukewarm. Growth in domestic demand, excluding inventories, has averaged 0.4% quarter-on-quarter since 2012. This comp ares with 0.8%-to-1.1% in the two major business cycle upturns in the 1990s and from 2000s before the crisis.

22 December 2017 Optimism in the French Corporate Sector is High and Broad-Based (Publication Centre)

Sentiment in the French business sector ended this year on a high. The headline manufacturing index fell slightly to 112 in December, from an upwardly-revised 113 in November, but the aggregate sentiment gauge edged higher to a new cycle high of 112.

22 Aug 2019 Brexit from the Perspective of the EU It's Complicated and Risky (Publication Centre)

The stakes in the Brexit saga have been raised significantly over the summer.

22 May 2020 Don't Over-Interpret the May PMIs, a Slow Rebound is Underway (Publication Centre)

It seems that yesterday's PMI data left investors and analysts more confused than enlightened.

18 May 2018 Are Valuations a Silver Lining for Eurozone Equities Into Year-End? (Publication Centre)

"Disappointing" is probably the word that most EZ equity investors would use to describe their market so far this year.

23 January 2019 More of the Same From German Bund Yields in 2019 (Publication Centre)

German 10-year yields have been trading according to a simple rule of thumb since 2017, namely, anything around 0.6% has been a buy, and 0.2%, or below, has been a sell.

22 Apr 2020 Eurobonds Could be a Trap for Southern Europe, Balance is Key (Publication Centre)

European heads of states will convene tomorrow, virtually, in the Council to continue the debate on a joint and coordinated response to the Covid-19 epidemic. The meeting will progress along two tracks.

14 Dec. 2015 Can Eurozone Equities Withstand Global Headwinds Next Year? (Publication Centre)

Barring a gigantic shock from the Fed this week--we expect a 25bp hike--Eurozone equities will end the year with a solid return for investors, who have been overweight. Total return of the MSCI EU ex-UK should come in around 10%, which compares to a likely flat return for the MSCI World, reflecting the boost from the ECB's QE driving out performance. Our first chart shows the index has been mainly lifted by consumer sector, healthcare and IT stocks, comfortably making up for weakness in materials and energy. The year has been a story of two halves, however, and global headwinds have intensified since the summer, partly offsetting the surge in the Q1 as markets celebrated the arrival of QE and negative interest rates.

11 January 2018 Chinese Manufacturing Goods Inflation Slows with Commodities (Publication Centre)

Chinese PPI inflation fell to 4.9% in December, from 5.8% in November. The decline was expected, but underneath the slowdown in commodity price inflation, the rate of increase of manufacturing goods prices is slowing sharply too.

11 Feb 2020 The Coronavirus will test the Policy Put's Effect on EZ Equities (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Sentix investor sentiment survey provided the first glimpse of conditions on the ground in the EZ economy in the wake of the coronavirus scare.

11 January 2018 Will France Reap the Rewards of Supply-Side Reforms in 2018? (Publication Centre)

Momentum in French manufacturing eased slightly in November, but the setback was modest. Industrial production dipped 0.5% month-to-month, only partially reversing the revised 1.7% jump in October.

11 May 2017 A Poor Q1 for French Industrial Production, but Q2 will be Better (Publication Centre)

French manufacturing came roaring back at the end of Q1. Industrial production jumped 2.0% month-to- month in March, driving the year-over-year rate higher to +2.0%, from a revised -0.7% in February.

13 June 2019 Let's Take a Minute to Cheer the Strengthening French Economy (Publication Centre)

On all accounts, growth in France has been modest in the past six-to-12 months, but in relative terms, the French economy is slowly but surely asserting itself as one of the key engines of growth in the EZ.

11 Sept 2019 AMLO Delivers Fiscally Responsible Plans, but Some Details are Shaky (Publication Centre)

This week, Mexico's government unveiled its 2020 fiscal budget proposal.

11 April 2017 Markets Still aren't Fully Prepared for a Further Rise in RPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

Investors have been caught out by the speed of the recent rise in RPI inflation and have revised up their expectations. Even so, inflation swaps imply that markets expect RPI inflation to be 3.6% in one year's time, not much above the latest print, 3.2% in February. We still think RPI inflation will exceed markets' expectations.

10 October 2018 Did German GDP Growth Crash in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The hard data now point to a horrendous Q3 GDP print in Germany, which almost surely will constrain the advance EZ GDP print released on October 30.

10 April 2019 Brazil's Retail Sector Slowed in Q1 Better Credit Conditions will Help (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic activity data have disappointed in recent months, firming expectations that the Q1 GDP report will show another relatively meagre expansion.

1 Sep 2020 Decent Data Today won't Change the Deteriorating Q4 Outlook (Publication Centre)

Today brings a raft of data which mostly will look quite positive but will do nothing to assuage our fears over a sharp slowdown in growth in the fourth quarter.

10 January 2019 We have Seen this Movie Before in French Consumer Confidence (Publication Centre)

History is repeating itself in France. When the Republican Nicolas Sarkozy defeated the Socialist candidate Ségolène Royal in April 2007, consumer sentiment briefly soared to a six-year high, before plunging to an all-time low a year later.

10 July 2018 Should we be Excited About the Rebound in EZ Investor Sentiment (Publication Centre)

It has been mostly doom and gloom for euro area investors in equities and credit this year.

10 May 2019 Is the Risk of a No-Deal Brexit Rising Again? (Publication Centre)

Unsurprisingly, cross-party Brexit talks are not going well.

13 September 2017 The French Labour Market is on the Up. Will Reforms Follow? (Publication Centre)

In theory, the headline labour market data in France should be a source of comfort and support for the new government.

26 September 2017 Another Marginal Dip in the IFO, and Murky Politics in Germany (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey in Germany sent a marginally more downbeat message than the strong PMIs last week. The IFO business climate index fell to 115.2 in September, from 115.9 in August, its second straight monthly dip.

17 December 2018 Corporate Debt Service Still Falling, Three Years After the First Fed Hike (Publication Centre)

This week brings the third anniversary of the first rate hike in this cycle, on December 16, 2015.

17 Apr 2020 U.S. Case Growth Slowing to Rates Where First Euro Lockdowns Eased (Publication Centre)

The absence of an internationally agreed set of guidelines for easing lockdowns means that such decisions ultimately are political in nature.

17 July 2019 Net Trade will Decide the Fortunes of the EZ Economy Through 2021 (Publication Centre)

The outlook for growth in the EZ economy is currently both stable and relatively uncomplicated, at least based on the most widely-watched leading indicators.

17 Mar 2020 There is Nothing Remotely Like Q1 in Historical Chinese Data (Publication Centre)

We lack an adjective sufficiently strong to describe China's February activity data.

18 Dec 2019 Modest Growth Ahead in 2020 for Domestic Eurozone Car Sales (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday added further evidence of a slow recovery in Eurozone auto sales.

17 March 2017 Embattled Pro-EU Parties Secure Decisive Victory in the Netherlands (Publication Centre)

Centrist politicians and markets breathed a sigh of relief yesterday as the results of the Dutch parliamentary elections rolled in. The incumbent conservatives, led by PM Mark Rutte, lost ground but emerged as parliament's biggest party with 33 seats out of the total 150.

16 Dec. 2014 Political Gamble in Greece Raises Market Risks over the Holidays (Publication Centre)

Political risks have returned to the Eurozone with the decision by Greek Prime Minister Samaras to initiate the election of a president, raising the risk of a Greek parliamentary election early next year.

16 Aug 2019 Eurozone Governments Have Fiscal Room, Will they use it (Publication Centre)

"Is EZ fiscal stimulus on the way?" is a question that we receive a lot these days.

15 April 2019 What Does the Art 50 Extension Say About the EU's Brexit View (Publication Centre)

The EU's decision to grant the U.K. an extension under Article 50, until October 31, reveals two key aspects of continental Europe's position on Brexit.

14 Sept 2020 German Core Inflation is 0.5pp Lower After the July VAT Cut (Publication Centre)

Friday's sole economic report provided further clarity on the impact on Germany's inflation data from the Value-Added-Tax cut in July.

15 Jan 2020 It's Time to Allocate Serious Capital to Clean Energy in Europe (Publication Centre)

Eurozone investors should by now be accustomed to direct intervention in private financial markets by policymakers.

15 May 2017 The Jump in Q1 German GDP Growth Likely Overstates the Trend (Publication Centre)

The German economy fired on all cylinders at the beginning of the year. Advance data on Friday showed that real GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, accelerating from a 0.4% increase in Q4.

15 October 2018 It's not Fun to Own EZ Equities this Year, but the ECB won't Blink (Publication Centre)

A bad year is threatening to become a catastrophic one for Eurozone equity investors.

18 Mar 2020 What is the Cost of Covering EZ Workers' Covid-19 Income Loss (Publication Centre)

Wage growth in the euro area slowed slightly last year, consistent with the rapid deceleration in economic growth since the end of 2017, though it remained robust overall.

29 March 2017 The Alternative Interpretation of Political Uncertainty in the EZ (Publication Centre)

The presumption in markets is that the French presidential election is the last hurdle to be overcome in the EZ economy. As long as Marine Le Pen is kept out of l'Élysée, animal spirits will be released in the economy and financial markets. We concede that a Le Pen victory would result in chaos, at least in the short run. Bond spreads would widen, equities would crash and the euro would plummet. But we also suspect that such volatility would be short-lived, similar to the convulsions after Brexit.

31 May 2019 The Ins and Outs of Last Week's Parliamentary Elections in the EU (Publication Centre)

On a headline level, last week's European Parliament elections were an excellent occasion for the EU.

31 March 2017 Eurozone Inflation Data will Undershoot the Consensus Today (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance data from Germany and Spain suggest that today's Eurozone inflation report will undershoot the consensus. In Germany, headline inflation slipped to 1.6% in March from 2.2% in February, and in Spain the headline rate plunged to 2.3% from 3.0%.

4 June 2019 Two Problems for the Fed: What to Expect, and What to Do (Publication Centre)

The Fed is in a double bind.

5 February 2019 Economic and Inflation Conditions Remain Benign in the Andes (Publication Centre)

Colombia's BanRep stuck to the script on Thursday by leaving the policy rate on hold at 4.25%.

5 February 2019 Six Days Later, We're Still Struggling to Make Sense of the Fed's Thinking (Publication Centre)

We very much doubt that Fed Chair Powell dramatically changed his position last week because President Trump repeatedly, and publicly, berated him and the idea of further increases in interest rates.

31 July 2020 Q3 Growth Could be as High as 25%, but Payrolls won't Play Along (Publication Centre)

The only significant surprise in the terrible second quarter GDP numbers was the 2.7% increase in government spending, led by near-40% leap in the federal nondefense component.

31 August 2017 Third Quarter Consumption off to a Strong Start? (Publication Centre)

Today's wave of economic reports are all likely to be strong. The most important single number is the increase in real consumers' spending in July, the first month of the third quarter.

30 Nov. 2015 Bullish Economic Data Will Not Deter the ECB this Week (Publication Centre)

Bullish money supply data last week added to the evidence that the Eurozone's business cycle is strengthening. Broad money growth--M3--rose to 5.3% year-over-year in October from 4.9% in September. Most of the increase came from a surge in short-term debt issuance, rising 8.4% year-over-year, following an inexplicable 1.4% fall in September.

30 November 2018 Will AMLO Make a Defiant "Mexico First" Inauguration Pledge (Publication Centre)

We have witnessed a dramatic shift in just a few weeks in perceptions of Mexico as an investment destination.

30 Oct 2019 The Fed will Ease Today, but will Signal a Pause Unless Growth Tanks (Publication Centre)

The stage is set for the Fed to ease by 25bp today, but to signal that further reductions in the funds rate would require a meaningful deterioration in the outlook for growth or unexpected downward pressure on inflation.

30 October 2017 New Elections in Catalonia Beckon as Madrid Activates Article 155 (Publication Centre)

The headlines from Catalonia are as confusing as ever, but we are sticking to our view--see here--that regional elections are the only reasonable outcome of the chaos.

5 January 2018 Don't Forget the Upbeat Story in Eurozone Services (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final PMI data added to the evidence that the EZ economy was firing on all cylinders at the end of last year. The composite PMI in the euro area rose to an 11-year high of 58.5 in December, from 57.5 in November, in line with the initial estimate.

6 December 2017 ADP to Report Strong November Jobs, but will Overstate Official Data (Publication Centre)

The ADP measure of private employment hugely overstated the official measure of payrolls in September, in the wake of Hurricane Irma, but then slightly understated the October number.

8 Jan 2020 ADP is Unlikely To Repeat November's Huge Undershoot (Publication Centre)

The contrast between November's very modest 67K ADP private payroll number and the surprising 254K official reading was startling, even when the 46K boost to the latter from returning GM strikers is stripped out.

8 August. 2016 Brazil's Economy is Stabilizing. Mexico's is Slowing, Temporarily (Publication Centre)

While we were out, Brazil's economic and political position continued to improve. The recession eased in the second quarter and into July. Industrial production, for example, increased in June for the fourth consecutive month, rising by 1.1% month-to-month.

8 June 2017 Subdued Core Inflation Gives ECB Doves the Upper Hand Today (Publication Centre)

The ECB will keep all its policy parameters unchanged today. The refi and deposit rates will be maintained at 0.00% and -0.4%, respectively, and the pace of QE will stay at €60B per month, running until the end of the year.

9 February 2017 Markets finally wake up to political risks in France (Publication Centre)

The twists and turns of the French presidential election campaign continue. François Fillon was tipped as favourite after he won the Republican primaries. But Mr. Fillon now is struggling to keep his campaign on track after allegations that he gave high paying "pro-forma" jobs to his wife as an assistant last year. The socialist candidate, Benoit Hamon, has been hampered by the unpopularity of his party's incumbent, François Hollande, and has lost ground to the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

9 June 2020 Support for a Sustained Rally in EURUSD Remains Inconclusive (Publication Centre)

Traders looking for a sustained move in the euro have been left disappointed in the past six-to-12 months, but it is now teasing investors with a break to the upside against the dollar.

7 June 2017 How to Prepare for a Eurozone Bond Market Without the ECB (Publication Centre)

Predicting which way markets would move in response to potential general election outcomes has been relatively straightforward in the past. But the usual rules of thumb will not apply when the election results filter through after polling stations close on Thursday evening.

7 Jan 2020 Oil Prices haven't Risen Enough to Disturb Consumers, Yet (Publication Centre)

The jump in oil prices over the past two trading days eventually will lift retail gasoline prices by about 35 cents per gallon, or 131⁄2%.

6 Jan 2020 Markets in Defensive Crouch, Awaiting Iran's Response (Publication Centre)

It's hard to overstate the geopolitical importance of Friday's assassination of Qassim Soleimani, architect of Iran's external military activity for more than 20 years and perhaps the most powerful man in the country, after the Supreme Leader.

6 June 2018. The Caixin PMI Belies the Struggle in Finance and Real Estate (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the Caixin services PMI was unremarkable in May, unchanged at 52.9.

6 May 2020 The Dollar Might not Look Good, but does the Euro Look Better (Publication Centre)

Many analysts were alarmed earlier this week by news from across the pond that the U.S. treasury is planning to break the bank in the fight against Covid-19.

7 February 2018 The EZ Economy Should be Resilient to Rising Market Volatility (Publication Centre)

As we go to press, equities in the Eurozone are having a bad day following the collapse in U.S. and Asian equities earlier.

30 May 2018 ADP Likely to Report Solid Gain in May Payrolls (Publication Centre)

The models which generate the ADP measure of private payrolls will benefit in May from the strength of the headline industrial production, business sales and jobless claims numbers.

30 March 2017 How will French Consumers React to Lower Real Wage Growth? (Publication Centre)

Leading indicators for consumers' spending in France are sending conflicting signals. Survey data suggest that households are in a spendthrift mood. Data yesterday showed that the headline consumer sentiment index was unchanged in March at 100, the cycle high.

28 June 2019 Who Will get the Top Jobs in the EU, and Should Investors Care? (Publication Centre)

Last week's capsized European Council summit added to our suspicions that uncertainty over the EU's top jobs will linger over the summer.

28 April 2017 The ECB is Happier about the Economy, But not Inflation (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB meeting painted a picture of a central bank in wait-and-see mode. The main refinancing and deposit rates were kept at 0.00% and -0.4% respectively, and the marginal lending facility rate also was unchanged at 0.25%.

28 March 2019 Further Signs that Negative Rates are Here to Stay in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Bond yields in the Eurozone took another leg lower yesterday.

28 September 2017 All Systems Go for Solid Eurozone GDP Growth in Q3 and Q4 (Publication Centre)

Money supply growth in the Eurozone firmed last month. Broad money--M3--rose 5.0% year-overyear in August, after a tepid 4.5% rise in July.

29 Aug 2019 Hong Kong It's not Just the Economy, Stupid (Publication Centre)

Concern over individual freedoms was the spark for Hong Kong's recent demonstrations and troubles, and protesters' demands continue to be political in nature.

27 September 2018 What to Expect From Today's 2019 Budget Headlines in Italy (Publication Centre)

Today is a busy day in the Eurozone economic calendar, but we suspect that markets mainly will focus on the details of Italy's 2019 budget.

27 September 2017 A Stable and Solid Outlook for Private Investment in France (Publication Centre)

French business sentiment cooled marginally at the end of Q3. The headline manufacturing confidence index dipped to 110 in September, from 111 in August, though the overall business sentiment gauge was unchanged at 110.

27 February 2019 Consumer Sentiment Signal better EZ Consumption Data in H1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's consumer sentiment data in the two major euro area economies were mixed, but they still support our view that a rebound in EZ consumption growth is underway.

27 June 2017 Flat Capex Orders won't Stop the Labor Market Tightening Further (Publication Centre)

The flat trend in core capital goods orders continued through May, according to yesterday's durable goods orders report. We are not surprised.

27 June 2019 Are Rising Jobless Claims a Drag on German Consumer Sentiment (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's consumer sentiment data provided further evidence of a strengthening French economy, amid signs of cracks in the otherwise solid German economy.

27 June 2019 Deal or No Deal Fed Cut or No Fed Cut What Does the PBoC Do (Publication Centre)

In this Monitor, befitting these uncertain times, we set out the decision tree facing Chinese policymakers.

29 Jan 2020 Brazil External Accounts Weakened in 2019, but Are Not a Concern Yet (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts were a relatively bright spot again last year.

29 January 2018 The Investor's Guide to the Business Cycle in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Money supply data in the EZ continue to suggest that headline GDP growth will slow soon.

3 July 2018 The EZ Economic Reform Agenda Lives to Fight Another Day (Publication Centre)

Last week's EU summit was an exercise in political pragmatism rather than the bold step forward on reforms that investors had been hoping for.

3 Mar. 2015 Weak Euro Boosts Orders for Manufacturers (Publication Centre)

Industrial companies in the Eurozone are still struggling with low growth, but the outlook is stabilising following the near-recession late last year. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 51.0 in February, trivially lower than the initial estimate of 51.1.

3 Sept 2019 Still Mostly Bad News in the Eurozone Manufacturing Sector (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final EZ manufacturing PMIs for August provided little in the way of relief for the beleaguered industrial sector.

30 August 2017 The Eurozone's Cyclical Recovery is Stable, Not Accelerating (Publication Centre)

While we were enjoying a rare sunny bank holiday in the U.K., data showed that Eurozone money supply growth slowed at the start of Q3. Broad money growth--M3--fell to a 10-month low of 4.5% year-over- year in July, from 5.0% in August.

3 Dec 2019 Tariffs on Steel Aluminium Highlight Downside Risks for LatAm (Publication Centre)

President Trump tweeted yesterday that he wants to re-introduce tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Brazil and Argentina, after accusing these economies of intentionally devaluing their currencies, hurting the competitiveness of U.S. farmers.

1 Apr 2020 ADP Likely to Capture the Leading Edge of the Virus Hit to Jobs (Publication Centre)

Today's March ADP employment report likely will catch the leading edge of the wave of job losses triggered by the coronavirus.

29 June 2017 The EZ Economy is in Great Shape, but Probably not Getting Better (Publication Centre)

Money supply dynamics in the Eurozone were broadly stable last month. M3 rose 5.0% year-over-year in May, accelerating slightly from a 4.9% increase in April, in line with the trend since the middle of 2015.

29 June 2018 Trade Tensions Unveil Chinese Financial Fragility (Publication Centre)

In previous Monitors, we have outlined our base case that the direct impact of tariffs on Chinese GDP will be minimal this year.

29 May 2018 Capex Starts the Second Quarter Strongly, Further Gains Ahead? (Publication Centre)

The newly-revised data on capital goods orders, released on Friday, support our view that sustained strength in business capex remains a good bet for this year.

29 October 2018 The Glass is Half-Full for French and German Households (Publication Centre)

Friday's consumer sentiment data in the two main Eurozone economies were mixed.

27 April 2017 Today's ECB Meeting Will be a Snoozer for Markets (Publication Centre)

It's always dangerous when risk assets rally strongly into an ECB meeting, but we doubt that investors have much to fear from today's session in Frankfurt. We think the central bank will leave its main refinancing and deposit rates at 0.00% and -0.4% respectively.

24 September 2018 Good News on Brazil Inflation, but all Eyes are on the Presidential Race (Publication Centre)

Broad-based inflation pressures in Brazil remain tame despite the sharp BRL depreciation this year, totalling about 7% in the last three months alone.

Freya Beamish

Freya Beamish produces the Asia service at Pantheon. She has several years of experience in covering the global economy, with a particular focus on China, Japan and Korea. Previously, she worked at Lombard Street Research (now TS Lombard), where she delivered research on Asia and the Global economy for over five years, latterly as the manager of the Macroeconomics group.

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Privacy policy for the Pantheon Macroeconomics website.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 13 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. Deaths Rising Steadily but Daily Hospitalizations have Stabilized

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 10 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. deaths are starting to rise, but new cases in Arizona have peaked.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The rate of increase of U.S. cases is slowing; daily new cases to dip in late July?

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Feb 28 (Publication Centre)

In one line: New cases outside China accelerating rapidly.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 14 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The peaking in new cases in Arizona should be followed elsewhere, soon.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 15 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. cases are still rising, but aren't accelerating; hospitalizations steady.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 2 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointing U.S. data yesterday, but the rate of spread of Covid has peaked.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 17 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Cases are now flat or falling in the first states to respond to the second wave; others to follow.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 16 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Have U.S. second-wave deaths peaked already?

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update August 7th (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. deaths seem to have flattened; expect a clear drop by month-end.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update August 5th (Publication Centre)

In one line: The fall in new U.S. cases is real; it's not just due to reduced testing.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update August 24th (Publication Centre)

In one line: The U.S picture is still bad, but it's improving; mixed news from Europe.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update August 14th (Publication Centre)

U.S. cases and hospitalizations continue to fall; first hints of a peak in Europe's second wave?

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 9 (Publication Centre)

Case Growth Slowing, but the U.S. Need to do Much More Testing

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update August 28th (Publication Centre)

In One Line: College Outbreaks Driving Spikes in Cases in the Midwest and Alabama

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update August 31st (Publication Centre)

U.S. Cases no Longer Falling; Decline in Hospitalizations is Slowing

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 20 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The U.S. second wave curve is bending; hospitalizations falling.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update August 4th (Publication Centre)

In one line: New cases and hospitalizations now falling in most U.S. states.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update August 3rd (Publication Centre)

In one line: The fall in U.S. new cases is overstated by reduced testing.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update August 6th (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. cases probably aren't falling as fast as the data suggest

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 22 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The second U.S. wave is cresting, but some states still seeing sharp increases in cases.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update September 25th (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising U.S. hospitalizations suggest cases increasing among older people.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update September 28th (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. cases rising slowly; no clear geographic pattern in the numbers.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update September 2nd (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. college spikes continue; Spain's second wave is now bigger than the first.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update September 23rd (Publication Centre)

In one line: The U.S. situation is deteriorating; hospitalizations jumped yesterday.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update September 21st (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. Hospitalizations still falling, but could start to rise again soon.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update September 14th (Publication Centre)

U.S. Test Positivity is Stuck At 5%; Europe's Second Wave Persists

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update September 16th (Publication Centre)

The decline in U.S. hospitalizations is slowing; test positivity still high.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update September 18th (Publication Centre)

An Interruption to the Downward Trend in U.S. Cases, or a Reversal?

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update September 30th (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. cases and hospitalizations are rising; deaths now barely falling.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update September 4th (Publication Centre)

In one line: New U.S. Cases have flattened; hospitalizations falling less quickly.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 24 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Flattening U.S. hospitalization curve validates the signal from the new case data

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 23 (Publication Centre)

In one line: State-by-state picture still very mixed even as U.S. national cases flatten.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 8 (Publication Centre)

Florida Dodges the Covid Bullet; Curves Bending in most States

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 27 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The U.S. second wave has crested, but the picture is varied across states.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 28 (Publication Centre)

In one line: New U.S. cases are now falling; deaths will peak by mid-August

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update September 9th (Publication Centre)

In one line: New U.S. cases are falling again; Europe's second wave is still increasing.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update: March 11 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Europe outside Italy is in trouble; more days like yesterday will result in broad lockdowns.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update: March 9 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Covid-19 outbreaks fading in China, Korea; Elsewhere, not.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 21 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better weekend U.S. data were no fluke; cases are peaking

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 6 (Publication Centre)

Case Growth Slowing but Still Rapid in the U.S. and Much of Europe

24 Mar 2020 Covid-19 is now Washing through the Eurozone Macro Surveys (Publication Centre)

The economic damage from the measures taken to curb the Covid-19 outbreak is now wreaking havoc with the key EZ surveys.

23 Oct 2019 Mr. Macron is Blowing the Budget in France, it's Working, for now (Publication Centre)

The prospect of fiscal stimulus in the euro area-- ostensibly to "help" the ECB reach its inflation target-- remains a hot topic for investors and economists.

23 August 2018 No Help for Eurozone Equities from Macro-Liquidity Indicators (Publication Centre)

The story in EZ capital markets this year has been downbeat.

2 June. 2015 Higher Inflation is the Next Big Macroeconomic Story in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures are slowly, but surely, rising in the Eurozone. Advance data indicate that inflation in Germany rose to 0.7% year-over-year in May, up from 0.5% in April. Reduced drag from the non-core components is the main driver, with energy prices rebounding, and food prices now rising steadily at 1.4% year-over-year.

26 Sept 2019 The Macro Impact of the End of PPI Compensation Will Be Small (Publication Centre)

Households' disposable incomes have been supported over the last eight years by a steady stream of compensation payments for Payment Protection Insurance--PPI--policies that were missold in the 1990s and 2000s.

29 Jan 2020 Fed on Hold, Awaiting Macro or Virus Developments, IOER to Rise (Publication Centre)

The Fed will do nothing to the funds rate or its balance sheet expansion program today.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 13 (Publication Centre)

Daily U.S. Deaths Should Drop Clearly this Week

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 10 (Publication Centre)

New U.S. Case have Peaked but Europe and ANZ Doing Much Better

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: As U.S. testing increases, the rate of growth of confirmed cases could rise again for a time.

17 April 2018 China will Loosen the Macropru by Year-end, for now, it's Intense (Publication Centre)

China's March money and credit data, published last Friday, showed that conditions continue to tighten, posing a threat to GDP growth this year.

16 January 2018 Brazil's Macro Conditions are Improving, But Fiscal Progress is Key (Publication Centre)

The IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for Brazil's GDP--rose 0.5% month-to-month in November, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 2.8%, from an upwardly-revised 3.1% in October.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 29 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hospitalizations peaking, but new cases are still rising in many states.

15 July 2020 Brazil's Macro Conditions Seem to be Stabilising, Rate Cuts During H2 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recession carried over into the middle of Q2, but with diminishing intensity in some economic sectors.

11 December 2018 Macro Data set to Split: Consumer Strength, Industrial Weakness (Publication Centre)

The next few months, perhaps the whole of the first quarter, are likely to see a clear split in the U.S. economic data, with numbers from the consumer side of the economy looking much better than the industrial numbers.

1 November 2017 2017 Eurozone Macroeconomic Data Don't get Much Better than this (Publication Centre)

Yesterday was a nearly perfect day for investors in the Eurozone. The Q3 GDP data were robust, unemployment fell, and core inflation dipped slightly, vindicating markets' dovish outlook for the ECB.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 14 (Publication Centre)

Cases and Deaths Falling; U.S. Testing Still Inadequate

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 15 (Publication Centre)

Trends in U.S. Cases and Deaths are Falling, Despite Yesterday's Jumps

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 29 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. deaths are falling, but the rise in testing seems to have stalled.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 28 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Is the U.S. on the brink of a sustained drop in new Covid-19 cases?

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 27 (Publication Centre)

In one line: More U.S. testing but falling positive rate is good news.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 3 (Publication Centre)

More Testing = More Cases, but the True Rate of Spread Likely is Slowing

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 30 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The U.S. meat industry is the source of most new infection hotspots.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update September 11th (Publication Centre)

U.S. Cases Falling Again but the Positive Test Rate is Stubbornly High

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 5 (Publication Centre)

Slowing Growth in Cases Across the U.S.; Exceptions are PA, LA

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 4 (Publication Centre)

Case Growth Slowing Across DMs as Lockdown Effects Work Through

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 25 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Vastly increased testing is finding more U.S. cases, but deaths are falling.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 24 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. testing finally gathering pace, but still behind the best in Europe.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 18 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Progress has slowed in the U.S. and Europe; Japan is miles behind.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 17 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Vigilance will be needed as lockdowns are eased; Covid-19 can spring back.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 16 (Publication Centre)

In one line: New U.S. cases per million will soon be at the levels which prompted easing lockdowns in Italy, Spain and Austria.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 2 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. deaths rocketing; Italy's are falling, with other western Europe not far behind.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 20 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stubborn case growth and low testing makes U.S. re-opening risky.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 23 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. cases rising steadily but should drop next week; Europe improving but Spanish case growth is stubborn.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 22 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The jump in U.S. cases yesterday looks like an outlier... we hope.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 21 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Easing lockdowns in the southern U.S. likely will trigger faster case growth.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 7 (Publication Centre)

The U.S. Curve is a Week Behind Austria's; Can it Stay on Track?

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update August 26th (Publication Centre)

In one line: Changing CDC guidelines mean U.S. testing is likely to drop further.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 9 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. hospitalizations still falling steadily post-reopening, so far.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 10 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Global cases aren't accelerating, but Italy's nightmare deepens.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 12 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Drastic action is coming in Europe, soon.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 14 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Infection rate data no longer reliable; death rates don't lie, and they are accelerating as the virus spreads.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 8 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A second wave is underway in parts of the South, and it's not all due to rising testing.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: More testing = more cases, but some southern states have real outbreaks.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 3 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hospitalizations are falling steadily despite noisy case data, but parts of the south are seeing cases jump.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 30 (Publication Centre)

In one line: New U.S. cases are rising rapidly, but has the rate of increase peaked?

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 31 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. hospitalizations are now falling, but progress is very uneven.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 15 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hoping for Seasonality.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 16 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Italian data confirm that aggressive testing and distancing measures work.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 21 (Publication Centre)

Still Waiting for Results from Europe's Lockdowns; U.S. Cases Soaring

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 22 (Publication Centre)

Possible Slowdowns in New Cases in NYC and Some European Countries

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 22 v2 (Publication Centre)

First Signs of a Turning Point in Europe as Case Growth Slows?

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 20 (Publication Centre)

New Asian Cases Ticking Higher; European Growth Steady, but Rapid

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 2 (Publication Centre)

In one line: New cases outside the major four outbreaks are accelerating.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 17 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lockdowns ought to slow case growth by early April.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 18 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The rate of growth of new cases in Italy has levelled off; soon to decline?

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 19 (Publication Centre)

In one line: It's beatable: No new domestic China cases yesterday.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 29 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The proportion of positive U.S. tests may be flattening; good news, if it persists.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 26 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Expect more U.S. reopenings to pause as cases and hospitalizations soar.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update October 9th (Publication Centre)

In one line: The U.S. is on a knife-edge as cases and hospitalizations rise again.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 10 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. regional split deepens; Germany reports rising cases.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 11 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Steady overall new U.S. cases hide two very different stories.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 12 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surging cases in parts of the U.S. south are straining hospitals; restrictions are coming.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 6 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. data distorted by the holiday weekend, but some glimmers of hope.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 7 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. Case growth is slowing; daily new cases to start falling in mid/late July

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hotspots on the U.S. Coasts, and the South; elsewhere, mostly improving.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 9 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Light at the End of the U.S. Tunnel; and Why are Swedish Cases Plunging?

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 8 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The post-holiday jump doesn't change the big picture; less bad, at the margin.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 15 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The southern U.S. Covid picture is deteriorating rapidly.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 16 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising southern cases offsetting declines elsewhere.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 23 (Publication Centre)

In one line: New U.S. cases up an astounding 55% yesterday; hospitalizations rising.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 24 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. Hospitalizations up 5% Yesterday; Further Big Increases are Inevitable

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 25 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The second U.S. wave is spreading, and accelerating.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 22 (Publication Centre)

In one line: More states now having rising cases than falling.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 2 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Broad improvement hidden by data changes, but wave 2 is emerging in the south.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 17 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The Memorial Day Covid wave is spreading across the South.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 18 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Southern U.S. hospitalizations are far below the NY peak, but there's no plan in place to stop them rising.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 19 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising southern U.S. cases easily outweighing declines elsewhere.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 23 (Publication Centre)

European Covid-19 Case Growth Appears to be Slowing

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 13 (Publication Centre)

Little Evidence that Italy's Lockdown is Working, Yet

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 27 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. data likely distorted by holiday lags, but a second wave may be emerging in parts of the South.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 28 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Test data anomalies make it hard to see case trends; deaths are falling.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 29 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The overall U.S. picture is improving slowly, but hotspots are worrying.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Germany is headed for near-zero new cases by the end of May.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 26 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. testing hits new highs, but cases still falling, just.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 22 (Publication Centre)

In one line: More testing = more cases; evidence of a second wave is scant.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 2 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. Deaths set to reach 100K by late May, even as case numbers fall.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 20 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better news from Florida, but daily new cases still rising in some states.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 21 (Publication Centre)

In one line: If the uptick in U.S. new cases is real, deaths will follow; don't bet on it.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 5 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. case growth now well below the pace at the time Germany announced lockdown easing.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 6 (Publication Centre)

In one line: If it bleeds, it leads: Alarmist media are missing the continued slowdown in U.S. case growth.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update October 21st (Publication Centre)

In one line: Cases rising faster than testing as positivity increases across the U.S.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update October 2nd (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. cases rising, but slowly; no clear peak yet in Western Europe.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update October 5th (Publication Centre)

In one line: New U.S. cases have flattened; no real progress in Europe.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update October 7th (Publication Centre)

In one line: High test positivity rates leave many states vulnerable to Covid outbreaks.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update October 19th (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. cases rising rapidly across the Midwest; positivity nudging up?

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update October 16th (Publication Centre)

In one line: The surge in U.S. cases is uneven; overall test positivity is stable.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 24 (Publication Centre)

Two Straight Days of Better News from Italy; U.S. Still Deteriorating

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 8 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Most U.S. states seeing slower case growth, despite increased testing.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update October 13th (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. Covid cases are rising, but Europe's are out of control.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 19 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointing U.S. data yesterday, but not disastrous; Florida's uptick is disconcerting.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 7 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Falling U.S. deaths are a good sign as increased testing reveals more cases.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 29 (Publication Centre)

In one line: NYC making real progress, but rapid increases continue in several large states.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 3 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A slight slowing in the rate of increase outside China; Iran is the key exception.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 30 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Case growth is slowing in the U.S. and Europe, but Big Risks Remain

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 31 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better news across most of Europe and the U.S., but some states stil face uncontained case growth.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 18 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The downward trend in U.S. cases continues, but at a slower pace.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 30 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. new cases falling slowly; deaths will rise until mid-August

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 25 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The U.S. Covid-19 Curve isn't bending yet.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 26 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. case growth is rapid but seems to be slowing, and beware the risk of explosive new hotspots.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 27 (Publication Centre)

In one line: No slowdown yet in U.S. case growth; risk of explosive outbreaks in NJ, FL, LA.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Outside the big four outbreaks, new cases are rising steadily; they aren't accelerating.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 28 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Bending curves in NY, WA offset by rapid increases in other states; Italy continues to improve.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 12 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Positive U.S. tests dip below 5% as new case numbers start to tumble.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 5 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Fewer non-China cases overall than previous day, but the trend is still rising and the outbreak is accelerating outside the big four.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 15 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointing U.S. numbers yesterday no cause for alarm; Germany has almost beaten Covid-19.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. cases are falling, outside the meat-packing hotspots.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 13 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. Cases are falling, and it's not just a New York story.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 11 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. Case growth is slow and slowing; what will reopening bring?

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 6 (Publication Centre)

In one line: New global cases rising steadily, not exponentially, but Europe and U.S. outbreaks worsening.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 14 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Favorable trends across DM; no sign of rebounds after reopenings.

BUSINESS INSIDER - Wages for American workers still look like they are about to go higher (Media Centre)

In January, average hourly wages grew 0.5% over the prior month, the biggest month-on-month increase since November 2008......Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro said the outlook for wage growth is still strong

BUSINESS INSIDER - Here come private payrolls ... (Media Centre)

In a note to clients ahead of the report, Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro said that while ADP isn't all that reliable of an indicator for the government's payroll release, set for Friday morning.

BUSINESS INSIDER - This key labor market indicator hasn't been this strong in years (Media Centre)

On Thursday morning, we'll get the best-performing indicator of the US labor market: initial jobless claims. For a while now, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ian Shepherdson has been stressing that the weekly print is noisy, particularly with the volatility the end-of-year season brings

CNBC - August payrolls should be strong (Media Centre)

August could be the month to break the mold with regards to payroll figures, Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said.

DUKASCOPY TV - Claus Vistesen discussing how the ECB will respond to missed IMF payment (Media Centre)

Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen discusses how the ECB will respond to the missed IMF payment yesterday.

14 September. 2016 Aircraft Orders are Falling Sharply, but Won't Hit GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

We don't often write about the performance of individual companies, but we have to make an exception for Boeing, because it is big enough to matter at a macro level. Last year, civilian aircraft orders--dominated by Boeing--totalled $102B, equivalent to 0.6% of GDP.

16 October 2018 Will Fiscal Stimulus Boost Eurozone GDP growth in 2019 (Publication Centre)

The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area was a macroeconomic horror story

17 Sept 2019 Our Take on the Shifts in EZ Bond Markets after the ECB's New Tools (Publication Centre)

From a macroeconomic perspective, the main shift in the ECB's policy stance last week was the change in forward guidance.

14 August. 2015 Brazil's Weakness Remains - And Mexico Still Eyeing the Fed (Publication Centre)

The macro data reported in Brazil this week added weight to the view that the economy ended the second quarter in a severe recession. Brazil's retail sales fell 0.4% month-to-month in June, the fifth consecutive contraction. The broad retail index, which includes vehicles and construction materials, fell 0.8% month-to-month, with a sharp contraction in auto sales, down 2.8%.

13 September 2018 Expect a Dovish Session From the ECB Today (Publication Centre)

We are easily excitable when it comes to monetary policy and macroeconomics, but we are not expecting fireworks at today's ECB meetings.

Pantheon Macroeconomics App Launch (Media Centre)

Apple and Android app now available

13 November 2017 German GDP Growth Likely Slowed in Q3, but Trend is Robust (Publication Centre)

Macroeconomic data in the euro area were mixed in our absence.

BUSINESS INSIDER - Germany's ballooning trade surplus just hit a new record size (Media Centre)

Germany's exporters just broke another record: The trade surplus for Europe's biggest economy is now at its highest on record.........Here's how Germany's recent export history looks, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Ian Shepherdson wins US Forecasters award, 2014 (Media Centre)

The Wall Street Journal is pleased to annouce that Ian Shepherdson, of Pantheon Macroeconomics, has won the US Forecaster of 2014 award.

*March 2019 - EZ Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Glimmers of Hope in the EZ Macro Data...But the Economy is not out of the Woods Yet

*Nov. 2015 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Focussed on the Macro: The Fed will soon hike, despite soft manufacturing

*Jan 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A consumer and investment slowdown beckons...Tighter macro policy will worsen the downturn

*Dec. 2016 - U.K.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Consumer and Investment Slowdown Beckons......Tighter Macro Policy will worsen the downturn

19 August 2020 Global Monitor What next in Japan's economy? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The U.S. economics team is on vacation • EUROZONE - Poor EZ macro-data, but that's absolutely fine for markets • U.K. - The initial rebound in GDP is set to slow sharply through Q3 • ASIA - Japan's Q3 recovery already looks disappointingly weak • LATAM - The Latam economics team is on vacation.

*Oct. 2015 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Focussed on the Macro: The Fed will soon hike, despite soft manufacturing

1 Dec. 2015 Plunging Oil Prices Shift Income to Consumers From Producers (Publication Centre)

The big story in global macro over the past 18 months or so has been the gigantic transfer of income from oil producers to oil consumers. The final verdict on the net impact of this shift--worth nearly $2T at an annualized rate--is not yet clear, because the boost to consumption takes longer than the hit to oil firms ' capex, which began to collapse just a few months after prices began to fall sharply. But our first chart, which shows oil production by country as a share of oil consumption, plotted against the change in real year-over-year GDP growth between Q2 2014 and Q2 2015, tells a clear story.

BBC - Freya Beamish Discussing US-China Trade Talks (Media Centre)

Freya Beamish, Chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discussing US-China Trade Talks with Philippa Thomas on BBC World

BUSINESS INSIDER - Europe's Largest Economy Is Officially In Deflation (Media Centre)

Germany's consumer price index fell 0.3% month-over-month in January. It's the first time the inflation rate went negative since September 2009. "Deflation has arrived," Pantheon Macroeconomics' Claus Vistesen said

BLOOMBERG - Yields lower, Equities probably higher - Ian Shepherdson (Media Centre)

Pantheon Macroeconomics Founder and Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson discusses his outlook for the economy, equities and European banks. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

BLOOMBERG - Economist Says U.S. Consumer Spending Is About To 'Surge' (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, Chief Economist at Pantheon MacroEconomics, on U.S. Consumer spending

12 June 2017 China's Policy Choices are all Difficult, can Disaster be Averted? (Publication Centre)

China faces three possible macro outcomes over the next few years. First, the economy could pull off an active transition to consumer-led growth. Second, it could gradually slide into Japan-style growth and inflation, with government debt spiralling up. Third, it could face a full blown debt crisis, where the authorities lose control and China drags the global economy down too

BUSINESS INSIDER - Europe's mightiest river is drying up, causing a recession in Germany. Yes, really. (Media Centre)

An unusual factor may have contributed to the German economy's likely fall into a shallow recession at the tail end of 2018, a new report from research house Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests.

H2 2017 U.S. Outlook - Brace for a Sustained Shift in Interest Rate Expectations (Publication Centre)

Pantheon Macroeconomics is pleased to make available to you our Outlooks for the second half of 2017 for the US, Eurozone, UK, Asia, and Latin America. These reports present our key views, giving you a concise summary of our economic and policy expectations. If you are interested in seeing publications which you don't already receive, please request a complimentary trial

6 April 2017 ADP Likely Overstates Payrolls, ISM Non-manufacturing Understates (Publication Centre)

We don't directly plug the ADP employment data into our model for the official payroll number. ADP's estimate is derived itself from a model which incorporates lagged official payroll data, because payrolls tend to mean-revert, as well as macroeconomic variables including oil prices, industrial production and jobless claims -- and actual employment data from firms which use ADP's payroll processing services.

9 December. 2016 The Oil Hit Spread Widely Across the Economy - Now, it's Over (Publication Centre)

A core element of our relatively upbeat macro view before the implementation of fiscal stimulus under the new administration is that the ending of the drag from falling capex in the oil sector will have quite wide, positive implications for growth. The recovery in direct oil sector spending is clear enough; it will just track the rising rig count, as usual.

FORBES - All Hail The Eurozone's Disaster-Prone Economy (Really) (Media Centre)

Provocative notes from Ian Shepherdson, the Chief Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics

5 October 2018 EZ Three EZ Data-Points to Watch in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Markets tend to take an eclectic view on macroeconomic data in the Eurozone.

5 March 2019 Simultaneous ISM Declines are Disconcerting, but won't Persist (Publication Centre)

The simultaneous weakening of the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys in recent months is one of the more disconcerting shifts in the recent macro data.

30 Nov. 2015 Stress Tests Should Underline Greater Resilience of U.K. Banks (Publication Centre)

The resilience of the U.K. financial system will be in focus this week. On Tuesday, the Bank of England's Prudential Regulation Authority, the PRA, will publish the results of stress tests of the U.K.'s seven largest banks. Concurrently, the Bank's Financial Policy Committee, the FPC, will publish its semi-annual Financial Stability Report and announce whether it will deploy any of its macroprudential tools.

2 June. 2016 Higher Inflation Soon Will Unsettle the ECB's Dovish Story (Publication Centre)

The ECB will not make any adjustments to its policy stance today. We think the central bank will keep its main refinancing and deposit rates unchanged at 0.0% and -0.4%, respectively, and also that will maintain the pace of QE purchases at €80B a month. The updated macroeconomic projections likely will include a modest upgrade of this year's GDP forecast to 1.5%, from its 1.4% estimate in March.

5 March 2018 Whatever the Problem is, Tariffs aren't the Answer (Publication Centre)

The apparently imminent imposition of 25% tariffs on imported steel and 10% on aluminum does not per se constitute a serious macroeconomic shock.

9 Mar. 2015 Currency Depreciation is Affecting Inflation Expectations in LatAm (Publication Centre)

Brazil's central bank is in a very delicate situation. The economy is on the verge of another recession, but at the same time the BRL is falling, inflation expectations are rising and the inflation rate is overshooting. Fiscal policy is also tightening to restore macro stability magnifying the squeeze on growth.

9 May. 2016 More Timely EZ GDP Data also Means Larger Revisions (Publication Centre)

The trade-off between the timeliness and accuracy of the data is fundamental to macroeconomic analysis. Coincident data such as GDP, industrial production and retail sales are the most direct measures of economic activity, but their first estimates don't always tell the full story.

H2 2017 U.K. Outlook - Weak GDP and Wage Growth Will Keep Higher Interest Rates at Bay (Publication Centre)

Pantheon Macroeconomics is pleased to make available to you our Outlooks for the second half of 2017 for the US, Eurozone, UK, Asia, and Latin America. These reports present our key views, giving you a concise summary of our economic and policy expectations. If you are interested in seeing publications which you don't already receive, please request a complimentary trial

US Datanote: Michigan Consumer Sentiment, March (preliminary) (Publication Centre)

In one line: The first clear virus hit in the macro data.

MARKET WATCH - Fed will be scrambling to catch up with improving economy, forecaster says (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics is the winner of the MarketWatch Forecaster of the Month award for June.

H2 2017 LatAM Outlook - Monetary Policy Easing Continues, Offsetting Political Risk (Publication Centre)

Pantheon Macroeconomics is pleased to make available to you our Outlooks for the second half of 2017 for the US, Eurozone, UK, Asia, and Latin America. These reports present our key views, giving you a concise summary of our economic and policy expectations. If you are interested in seeing publications which you don't already receive, please request a complimentary trial

H2 2017 Eurozone Outlook - The Eurozone Economy is Doing Well, but Will it Last? (Publication Centre)

Pantheon Macroeconomics is pleased to make available to you our Outlooks for the second half of 2017 for the US, Eurozone, UK, Asia, and Latin America. These reports present our key views, giving you a concise summary of our economic and policy expectations. If you are interested in seeing publications which you don't already receive, please request a complimentary trial

EZ Datanote: Advance IFO, Germany, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: The coronavirus finally arrives in the EZ macro data.

H2 2017 Asia Outlook - Higher Global Rates Depress China but Stimulate Japan, for now (Publication Centre)

Pantheon Macroeconomics is pleased to make available to you our Outlooks for the second half of 2017 for the US, Eurozone, UK, Asia, and Latin America. These reports present our key views, giving you a concise summary of our economic and policy expectations. If you are interested in seeing publications which you don't already receive, please request a complimentary trial

30 August 2017 ADP Looks set to Report Another Solid Gain in Payrolls (Publication Centre)

We're expecting a hefty increase in private payrolls in today's August ADP employment report. ADP's number is generated by a model which incorporates macroeconomic statistics and lagged official payroll data, as well as information collected from firms which use ADP's payroll processing services.

5 Jan. 2015 - While We Were Out... (Publication Centre)

...Third quarter growth was revised up sharply and the prospects for fourth quarter consumption improved substantially. Less positively, the first signs of faltering capex in the wake of the plunge in oil prices emerged in the macro data, and the ISM manufacturing index began to reverse its run of absurd, seasonally-assisted, "strength".

25 April 2017A Government Shutdown Would Say More About Politics Than Economics (Publication Centre)

A shutdown of the federal government, which could happen as early as this weekend, is a political event rather than a macroeconomic shock. But if it happens--if Congress cannot agree on even a shortterm stop-gap spending measure in order to keep the lights on after the 28th--it would demonstrate yet again that the splits in the House mean that the prospects of a substantial near-term loosening of fiscal policy are now very slim.

3 June. 2015 Inflation is rising, but the ECB will confirm its dovish stance today (Publication Centre)

In yesterday's Monitor, we laid out the macroeconomic case for moderately higher inflation in the second half of the year. But subdued market based inflation expectations indicate that the ECB will retain its dovish bias for now. The central bank's preferred measure, 5-year/5-year forward inflation expectations, have only increased modestly in response to QE, and have even declined recently on the back of higher market volatility.

20 Feb. 2015 Data Surprises Don't Tell Us Much About the Economy (Publication Centre)

At the headline level, much of the recent U.S. macro dataflow has been disappointing. January retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, and both ISM surveys--manufacturing and non-manufacturing-- undershot consensus, following a sharp and unexpected drop in December durable goods orders.

26 June 2020 Sterling Unlikely to Break Out Decisively from its Recent Range (Publication Centre)

Sterling's rough first half of this year--cable has depreciated to $1.24, from $1.33 at the end of 2019--is hard to reconcile with its normal macroeconomic determinants.

24 January 2017 EZ Economic Data Will Struggle to Live Up to Expectations in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Consensus forecasts expect further gains in this week's key EZ business surveys, but the data will struggle to live up to expectations. The headline EZ PMIs, the IFO in Germany, and French manufacturing sentiment have increased almost uninterruptedly since August, and we think the consensus is getting ahead of itself expecting further gains. Our first chart shows that macroeconomic surprise indices in the euro area have jumped to levels which usually have been followed by mean-reversion.

22 October 2018 Does the Opioid Crisis Explain the Flat Labor Participation Rate (Publication Centre)

The failure of labor market participation to increase as the economy has gathered pace, pushing unemployment down from its 10.0% peak to just 3.7%in September, is one of the biggest macro mysteries in recent years.

21 May 2018 How do you Price the Risk of a Political Wildcard in Italy? (Publication Centre)

In our Monitor May 15 we described the initial government program in Italy, drafted by the leadership of the Five-Star Movement and the League parties, as a "macroeconomic fairytale."

22 August 2018 Venezuela's Economic Crisis Will Deteriorate Despite Recent Plan (Publication Centre)

To imagine an unstoppable macroeconomic policy disaster and desperate improvisation, just think of Venezuela.

22 June 2017 Falling Oil Prices will hit Mining Capex, but no Repeat of 2014 to 16 (Publication Centre)

The renewed slide in oil prices in recent weeks will crimp capital spending, at the margin, but it is not a macroeconomic threat on the scale of the 2014-to-16 hit.

21 June 2017 Japan will Grow this Year, Despite its Structural Hurdles (Publication Centre)

Abenomics has had its successes in changing the structure of Japan. Notably, large numbers of women have gone back to work and corporations have started paying dividends. These are by no means small victories. But overall, the macroeconomy is essentially the same as when Shinzo Abe became prime minister.

26 Nov. 2015 The Chancellor Leaves the Fiscal Shackles Firmly in Place (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor used the Autumn Statement to shift the composition of the fiscal consolidation slightly away from spending cuts and towards tax hikes. But in overall macroeconomic terms, he changed little. The fiscal stance is still set to be extremely tight in 2016 and 2017, ensuring that the economic recovery will lose more momentum.

28 May 2019 The Trade War: What we Know, What we Believe, and What we Don't Know (Publication Centre)

The trade war with China is a macroeconomic event, whose implications for economic growth and inflation can be estimated and measured using straightforward standard macroeconomic tools and data.

27 July. 2016 Can Fiscal Stimulus be a Silver Bullet for the Eurozone Economy? (Publication Centre)

Global economic growth continues to fall short of expectations, and the call for aggressive fiscal stimulus is growing in many countries. This is partly a function of the realisation that monetary policy has been stretched to a breaking point. But it is also because of record low interest rates, which offer governments a golden and cheap opportunity to kickstart the economy. One of the main arguments for stronger fiscal stimulus is based on classic Keynesian macroeconomic theory.

27 January 2017 Will Mr. Trump Single out Germany for its Large Trade Surplus? (Publication Centre)

The uncertainty over the new U.S. administration's economic policies new is clouding the outlook for the Eurozone economy. The combination of loose fiscal policy and tight monetary policy in the U.S. should be positive for the euro area economy, in theory. It points to accelerating U.S. growth--at least in the near term--wider interest rate differentials and a stronger dollar. In a " traditional" global macroeconomic model, this policy mix would lead to a wider U.S. trade deficit, boosting Eurozone exports.

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CNBC - March rate hike 'as done as it gets': Ian Shepherdson (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the possibility of 4 interest rate hikes in 2017

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Softer February survey data in the Eurozone (Media Centre)

Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Eurozone economist Claus Vistesen discusses the latest survey data and political developments in the Eurozone economy.

CNBC - The market doesn't think the Fed will be able to raise rates five times... (Media Centre)

Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, analyses the latest monetary policy moves from the Bank of Japan.

Claus Vistesen

Claus Vistesen has several years' experience in the independent macro research space, as a freelancer, consultant and, latterly, as Head of Research of Variant Perception, Inc. He holds Master's degrees in economics and finance from the Copenhagen Business School and the University of Hull.

CNBC - US is in a stronger negotiating position than China on trade... (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics, and Said Haidar, Haidar Capital Management, discuss the market, economic and geopolitical impacts of the Trump administration's trade actions.

Andres Abadia

Andres Abadia authors our Latin American service. Andres is a native of Colombia and has many years' experience covering the global economy, with a particular focus on Latin America. In 2017, he won the Thomson Reuters Starmine Top Forecaster Award for Latam FX. Andres's research covers Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Venezuela, focusing on economic, political and financial developments. The countries of Latin America differ substantially in terms of structure, business cycle and politics, and Andres' researchhighlights the impact of these differences on currencies, interest rates and equity markets. He believes that most LatAm economies are heavily influenced by cyclical forces in the U.S. and China, as well as domestic policy shocks and local politics. He keeps a close eye on both external and domestic developments to forecast their effects on LatAm economies, monetary policy, and financial markets. Before starting to work at Pantheon Macroeconomics in 2013, Dr. Abadia was the Head of Research for Arcalia/Bancaja (now Bankia) in Madrid, and formerly Chief Economist for the same institution. Previously, he worked at Ahorro Coporacion Financiera, as an Economist. Andres earned a PhD in Applied Economics, and a Masters Degree in Economics and International Business Administration from Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, and a BSc in Economics from the Universidad Externado de Colombia.

CNBC - Reluctance from the Fed (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics, shares his economic view of markets around the world.

Miguel Chanco

Miguel Chanco helps to produce Pantheon's Asia service, having covered several parts of the region for nearly ten years. He was most recently the Lead Analyst for ASEAN at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Prior to that role, Miguel focused on India and frontier markets in South Asia for Capital Economics and BMI Research, Fitch Group.

IG - US labour market driving the need for a rate rise from the Fed (Media Centre)

Dr Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, says that while US rates will rise by 0.25% on 14th December, the central bank needs to continue to move rates up or wages will spiral up out of control.

Politico Money - Why you should worry a little bit about markets and the economy (Podcast) (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics pulls back the curtain on the economy with POLITICO's Ben White.

BLOOMBERG - Has the Crash in Oil Prices Fueled Consumer Spending? (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist, discusses the economic impact of falling oil prices with Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Scarlet Fu

Bloomberg - Pantheon Chief Economist Worries Wages May Pressure Fed (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the impact of improving wage growth and inflation on the Federal Reserve ahead of today's February jobs report. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

Bloomberg - Pantheon Economist Says Markets Are 'Pivoting Towards a Nasty Fiscal Story' (Media Centre)

Claus Vistesen, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief euro zone economist, discusses how volatility has impacted the bond market.

Bloomberg - Pantheon Economist Sees Inflation Rising in Euro Zone (Media Centre)

Claus Vistesen, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief euro zone economist, discusses the outlook for the euro-zone economy in 2018 with Bloomberg's Scarlet Fu and Joe Weisenthal on "What'd You Miss?"

Bloomberg - Pantheon's Shepherdson Says Inflation Killed Sep. Hike (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, and Krishna Memani, chief investment officer at OppenheimerFunds, discuss the impact of low inflation on the Federal Reserve's rate path.

Bloomberg - Monte Paschi Proceeds With Capital Plan (Media Centre)

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA will step up efforts to win investors for an expanded debt-to-equity swap over the coming days, pressing ahead with a 5 billion-euro ($5.3- billion) capital increase as its options to avoid a state rescue dwindle. Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Euro Zone Economist Claus Vistesen weighs in on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas."

BLOOMBERG - Markets are telling Yellen it's time to move (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, founder at Pantheon Macroeconomics, and Jeff Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James, look forward to a potential Federal Reserve rate hike on December 16 and how markets and the U.S. economy may react in the year ahead.

Bloomberg - Ian Shepherdson Sees Trump Confusion on U.S. Dollar (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, founder and chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, and Paul De Grauwe, London School of Economics professor and former Belgian MP, talk about confusion surrounding the Trump administration's approach to the U.S. dollar.

Bloomberg - Italy Exiting Eurozone Unlikely at This Point, Shepherdson Says (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses Italy's budget and deficit and the potential for the nation to leave the Eurozone.

3 July 2018 AMLO Wins a Landslide Victory Markets Will Keep a Close Eye on Him (Publication Centre)

Early results project that Andrés Manuel López Obrador--AMLO--will become the new Mexican president with 53.4% of the votes, against Ricardo Anaya's 22.6%, and José Antonio Meade's 15.7%. AMLO has declared victory and thanked his opponents, who recognized his triumph.

Bloomberg - RDQ Economics' Dequadros Says Current Fed Is Less Likely to Blink Than Prior Fed (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, and Conrad Dequadros, senior economist at RDQ Economics, discuss rising real yields and Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Bloomberg - Shepherdson Concerned About Inflation Risk (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics founder and chief economist, discusses the outlook for the global economy with Bloomberg's Julie Hyman, Joe Weisenthal and Scarlet Fu on "What'd You Miss?"

CNBC - Ian Shepherdson talks Greece on CNBC Squawk box (Media Centre)

Discussing the dangers if Greece defaults on its debt, with Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics.

CNBC - Chinese economy at risk of overstimulation, strategist says (Media Centre)

Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the Chinese economy.

CNBC - BOJ recognizes that 2 percent inflation target is a long way off:... (Media Centre)

Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, analyses the latest monetary policy moves from the Bank of Japan.

CNBC - Bull markets die because the Fed kills them, says economist (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist, discusses his outlook on the U.S. economy and the long-lasting bull market.

CNBC - D-Day for Draghi (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics, provides insight to the European Central Bank's path and whether to expect Mario Draghi to announce additional stimulus.

CNBC - Asset prices 'hugely over-inflated' everywhere (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics, and Erik Knutzen, Neuberger Berman, provide insight to the markets ahead of the FOMC meeting.

BLOOMBERG - Two decades to unwind from '08 crash: Ian Shepherdson (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, founder and chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses low job growth, the continuing recovery from the financial crisis and the state of the U.S. economy. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

Bloomberg - Why We Could See a Pickup in Wage Growth (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the outlook for U.S. inflation and labor market with Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Julia Chatterley on "What'd You Miss?"

CNBC - Approving US fiscal stimulus is completely crazy: Pantheon (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the impact of recent market volatility and fiscal reform in the U.S.

Bloomberg - Fed May Bring Hot, Volatile Summer, Says Shepherdson (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, founder at Pantheon Macroeconomics Ltd., discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hike pattern and how it can provide a summer surprise to markets. He speaks with Bloomberg's Mark Barton on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

CNBC - Economy and profits are on a silver platter for investors, says pro (Media Centre)

Ryan Payne, Payne Capital Management president, and Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics founder and chief U.S. economist, discuss what to expect for the markets and economy after a shaky October.

CNBC - Fed will hike rates in June, regardless of jobs data (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, speaks about how the U.S. Federal Reserve will react to the latest jobs data.

Bloomberg - 'Can't Expect Too Much' From Early U.S.-China Trade Talks, Says Beamish (Media Centre)

Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses U.S.-China trade talks and the domestic state of the Chinese economy. She speaks with Francine Lacqua on Tom Keene on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

CNBC - Fed raising rates due to 'fear of what might be coming': Economist (Media Centre)

There has been a "meaningful upturn" in core inflation in the U.S., Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macro, said.

Bloomberg - Beamish on Inflation in Asia, PBOC, Fed (Media Centre)

Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the lack of inflation in Asia, PBOC policy and China's economy.

Bloomberg - Economist Shepherdson Sees Dollar as Drag on Goods Prices (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the dollar's impact on inflation and markets "overdoing" inflation and recession fears. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

Bloomberg - China Has Limited Space for 'Fiscal Bazooka,' Economist Beamish Says (Media Centre)

Freya Beamish, Chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the Chinese government's ability to provide economic stimulus. She speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

CNBC - Here's why this economist says the shutdown will erase all Q1 growth (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics founder and chief U.S. economist, joins "Squawk Box" to discuss how the partial government shutdown is impacting the economy.

CNBC - Fed's Powell 'bullish on growth," says economist (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics founder and chief U.S. economist, provide insight to the broader markets and interest rates ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Al Jazeera - EU-Japan free trade (Media Centre)

EU-Japan free trade: Japan and the European Union agreed on an outline for a massive trade deal this week that will rival the size of NAFTA, the free trade accord that the United States has with Canada and Mexico, currently the largest one in the world. Claus Vistesen, the chief eurozone economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, assesses what's in the agreement and why it matters (19mins 10 secs).

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Sitemap of the Pantheon Macroeconomics website.

Question of the Week, WC 25th June (Media Centre)

With the Mexican Elections on July 1st, our Chief Latam Economist Andres Abadia has received many questions about the possible outcomes and how this will affect the Mexican economy going forward.

Question of the Week, WC 27th April 2020 (Media Centre)

Is Covid-19 the main factor behind Mexico's poor economic performance?

Question of the Week, WC 28th September 2020 (Media Centre)

Has the Internal Market Bill killed off the chances of a trade deal with the E.U.?

Question of the Week, WC 4th May 2020 (Media Centre)

Where will EURUSD go in Q2? How about nowhere

Question of the Week, WC 6th Jan 2020 (Media Centre)

Will EZ services hold their own amid weakness in manufacturing?

Question of the Week, WC 28th Oct (Media Centre)

What do the protests mean for Chile's economy?

Question of the Week, WC 2nd July (Media Centre)

Why is the EZ current account surplus rising and net exports falling at the same time? 

NEW YORK TIMES - Producer Prices Edge Up Despite Slide in Cost of Gas (Media Centre)

Producer Prices Edge Up Despite Slide in Cost of Gas

MAIL ONLINE - US home prices still trend lower in November (Media Centre)

US home prices rose in November from October but the underlying trend continued to point to a slowdown in price gains, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index released Tuesday

NEW YORK TIMES - Federal Reserve Won't Raise Interest Rates Before June, at Earliest (Media Centre)

The Federal Reserve kept its options open on Wednesday, signaling that it would not raise short-term interest rates any earlier than June, while leaving unresolved how much longer it might be willing to wait before lifting its benchmark rate from near zero, where the central bank has held it for more than six years

NEW YORK TIMES - Fed Still Looking at Raising Rates This Year, Minutes Show (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson comments after FOMC Minutes release yesterday

NEW YORK TIMES - Survey Indicates Slower Growth in Services Sector (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on ISM Non-Manufacturing

NEW YORK TIMES - U.S. Economy Added 257,000 Jobs in January - Unemployment Rate at 5.7% (Media Centre)

The economic momentum evident late last year carried into 2015, the Labor Department said Friday, with American employers adding 257,000 jobs in January as wage growth rebounded and more people joined the workforce

NEW YORK TIMES - U.S. Economy Added 271,000 Jobs in October - Unemployment Rate at 5% (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on today's Payroll report

Invesco Podcast - The US Economy - Don't Fight the Fed... Or the Government! (Media Centre)

In the latest Invesco Podcast Ben Gutteridge, Director of Model Portfolio Services , speaks to Ian Shepherdson, the founder and Chief US Economist of Pantheon Economics

New York Times - Fed Predicts Modest Economic Growth From Tax Cut (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the Fed's growth forecast

Market Watch - The stock market is too complacent about risk of higher rates, says top forecaster (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson named Market Watch forecaster of the month for July

MARKETWATCH - You should trust the BLS more than the Dow, economist says (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the U.S. Economy

MARKETWATCH - So many jobs, so little growth. What gives? (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. hiring

Markets Insider - Tariff anxiety is mounting across American households, threatening the backbone of the economy (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the U.S. China-Trade War

Market Watch - Nightmare scenario for economy is becoming less likely, award-winning forecaster says (Media Centre)

Nightmare scenario for economy is becoming less likely, award-winning forecaster Ian Shepherdson

NBC - How a 'no-deal' Brexit would have ripple effects on U.S. companies (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the effects of a no-deal Brexit on the EU

NEW YORK TIMES - Fed Might Not Have the Luxury of Slow and Steady Rate Increases (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. interest rates

NEW YORK TIMES - European Central Bank's Bond-Buying Will Help U.S. Tourists and Investors (Media Centre)

European Central Bank's Bond-Buying Will Help U.S. Tourists and Investors...

NBC News - Trump says 'American worker' is top priority -- but economists are skeptical (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on Corporate Tax Cuts

Independent - UK pay growth data disappoints again as real wages decline at fastest rate in three years (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Labour Market data for May

NEW YORK TIMES - U.S. Economy Grew Faster in First Quarter Than Previously Thought (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. economy growth

Question of the Week, WC 11th November (Media Centre)

Is Japan's pending 15-month anything to write home about?

Question of the Week, WC 11th June (Media Centre)

Are there any signs that the U.S. tax cuts and/or regulatory relaxation are stimulating increased non-residential fixed investment?

Markets Insider - Housing is the 'hottest part' of the US economy as homebuilder confidence hits 20-year high (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the U.S. Housing Sector

Question of the Week, WC 12th October 2020 (Media Centre)

Will the EU's recovery fund be delayed?

POLITICO - Downside risk to GDP today (Media Centre)

OWNSIDE RISK TO GDP TODAY -- Pantheon's Ian Shepherdson: "We are nervous about the first estimate of fourth quarter GDP growth, due today

Politico - 'No words for this': 10 million workers file jobless claims in just two weeks (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the record-breaking number of U.S. Unemployment Claims this week

NEW YORK TIMES - What's So Bad About Cheap Oil? (Media Centre)

What's So Bad About Cheap Oil?

New York Times - UK Retailers Report Smaller Drop in Annual Sales in May (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K Retail Sales in May

Independent - UK house price growth drops to five-year low as London remains worst-performing region (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

Independent - UK mortgage lending rises ahead of possible rate rise (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Halifax House Price data

Independent - UK economy growth could slip due to North Sea pipeline shutdown, warn experts (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. economy growth

NEWS.MARKETS - Brexit? Bremain? How soon will markets know? (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Referendum

NY Times - UK Inflation Bolsters View Central Bank Will Not Cut Rates (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

NEWS.MARKETS - Sterling markets accused of inflation complacency (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

Question of the Week, WC 14th September 2020 (Media Centre)

Is the monetary easing cycle in Brazil over?

REUTERS - UK manufacturing outlook darkens, retail sales slip (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. Manufacturing

The Times - Trade war hits US growth as Trump renews attack on Federal Reserve (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the U.S. Trade War with China

The Times - Shock deterioration in building sector knocks sterling (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Construction in June

The Times - Services sector enjoys Boris bounce (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. PMIs in December

The Times - Japan slides towards recession after typhoon (Media Centre)

Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish on Japan's economy

U.K. Webinar December 2019: How will the general election affect markets, Brexit and the MPC? (Media Centre)

With just one week to go, our Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs will assess the likelihood of potential general election outcomes and their implications for financial market, Brexit and monetary policy

U.K. Webinar July 2020: How Long Will The MPC Keep Its Foot On The Gas? (Media Centre)

How Long Will The MPC Keep Its Foot On The Gas?

U.S. Webinar October 2019: Brace for slow growth, absent a trade fix...And look out for tariff pass-through to inflation (Media Centre)

Brace for slow growth, absent a trade fix...And look out for tariff pass-through to inflation

U.S. Webinar March 2020: The U.S. Economy: Navigating Through the Coronavirus Outbreak (Media Centre)

The U.S. Economy: Navigating Through the Coronavirus Outbreak

U.S. Webinar June 2020: What does the Covid Second Wave Mean for the Economy, Policy and Markets? (Media Centre)

What does the Covid Second Wave Mean for the Economy, Policy and Markets?

The Times - Economists raise forecasts of impact on global economy (Media Centre)

Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish on China and the Coronavirus

The Times - City expects new chancellor to turn on the spending taps (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing next months budget

The Street - US Yield Curve Hugs Inversion: Recession Signal Clouded by Negative Global Rates (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing the latest from the Fed

The New Yorker - The G.O.P.'s Latest Coronavirus Stimulus Doesn't Take Into Account Trump's Blundering (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the effect of Covid19 on the U.S. Economy

The Japan Times - Economists agree on one thing about Abe's stimulus package: It helps the Bank of Japan (Media Centre)

Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish discussing Japans new stimulus package

THE TELEGRAPH - Boost for George Osborne as UK borrowing drops in December (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. economist Samuel Tombs comments on today's retail data release

THE TELEGRAPH - Britain remains stuck in deflation (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. inflation

THE TELEGRAPH - Weak US retail sales put hopes of interest rate hike on ice (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on US Retail Sales

THE TELEGRAPH - UK construction declines for third straight month (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. construction

THE TELEGRAPH - Eurozone economy 'sizzles' as ECB readies monetary bazooka (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the Eurozone recovery

Wall Street Journal - Britain's New Housing Dilemma (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs discussing the U.K. Monetary Policy

WALL STREET JOURNAL - U.S. Home-Builder Confidence Hits Near-Decade High (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson on positive data from U.S. Home-Builders

WALL STREET JOURNAL - U.S. Home-Builder Confidence Climbs in September, Industry Group Says (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson comments on US Home-builders data

Wall Street Journal - U.S. Durable-Goods Orders Post Biggest Jump in a Year (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Durable Goods Orders

Wall Street Journal - U.S. Consumer Sentiment Held Steady in Early July (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Consumer Sentiment

WALL STREET JOURNAL - U.S. Jobless Claims Decline (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Unemployment

WALL STREET JOURNAL - U.S. Pending Home Sales Drop in December (Media Centre)

The U.S. housing market stumbled into 2015 as a leading indicator of home sales dipped in December

WSJ - Britain's Pound Depreciation Isn't Working (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the Depreciation of the Pound

Wall Street Journal - U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Hold Below 300,000 for Longest Streak on Record (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Jobless Claims

WALL STREET JOURNAL - U.S. Producer Prices Climbed, Boosted by Pricier Energy (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Producer Prices

WALL STREET JOURNAL - U.S. Construction Spending Surges (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson comments on strong construction data

WALL STREET JOURNAL - U.K. Pay Growth Flattens Off (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on Pay Growth and Unemployment

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Economists react to the May jobs report: "Unambiguously Positive" (Media Centre)

Chief US economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest Jobs report

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Economists React to the January Fed Statement: 'The Door is Still Open to a June Hike' (Media Centre)

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday it would keep short-term interest rates near zero until at least the middle of the year. The central bank's policy committee also signaled caution about low inflation and nodded to overseas uncertainty by including new language that it would monitor international developments. Here's how economists reacted

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Economists React to First-Quarter GDP: 'Pretty Lackluster' (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Q1 GDP

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Cheaper Oil Drags Down Business Inflation, but Long Deflationary Period Unlikely (Media Centre)

U.S. inflation gauges are sliding toward negative territory for the first time in more than five years. But the oil-fueled tumble in prices is far from the kind of growth-sapping episodes of deflation that tend to worry economists

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Economists react to the May jobs report: "Unambiguously Positive" (Media Centre)

Chief US economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest Jobs report

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Economists react to the May jobs report: "Unambiguously Positive" (Media Centre)

Chief US economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest Jobs report

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Jobless Claims Rise Slightly in April 18 Week (Media Centre)

Chief US Economist Ian Shepherdson on today's Inital Jobless Claims data

WALL STREET JOURNAL - ISM Services Report Alleviates Market's Economic Anxiety (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest ISM Non-Manufacturing data release

WALL STREET JOURNAL - ISM Service-Sector Index Eases in May (Media Centre)

Chief US economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest ISM nonmanufacturing data

The Hill - Superb jobs data ensures Dems will have their hands full in midterms (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing U.S. Employment

The Hill - Memo to Powell: Best not to offer hostages to fortune (Media Centre)

Article by Ian Shepherdson in The Hill

Reuters. - U.K. house prices fall for second month in January (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. house prices

Reuters Poll - Andres Abadia named Top FX Latam Forecaster for 2017 (Media Centre)

Andres Abadia named top Latam FX Forecaster for 2017 by Reuters

Reuters - UK retailers suffer worst September on record, BRC says (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales

REUTERS - UK inflation was zero in 2015 despite December lift (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

Sky News - Fuel prices push inflation to unexpected six-month high (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. CPI

SKY NEWS - Weakening tax receipts hurt public finances in September (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Public Finances

TELEGRAPH - 'Robust' house price growth fuelled by buy-to-let and low supply (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Nationwide House Prices

Sunday Times - Pound's fall 'the worst devaluation in history' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing the devaluation of the GBP

Sunday Times - David Smith: Forecasters were too upbeat on growth in 2019 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs ranked as one of the top U.K. Economic Forecasters in 2019

Reuters - UK inflation hits four-year low on oil price fall, COVID impact (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K Inflation

Reuters - UK factory output falls for first time in almost a year (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing Output

REUTERS - Colombia set to up rates to fight inflation, bolster credibility (Media Centre)

Senior LatAm Economist Andres Abadia on Colombia

Reuters - China's first-quarter economic hit from coronavirus looking more severe: Reuters poll (Media Centre)

Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish on the Coronavirus effect on the Chinese Economy

REUTERS - Cheaper petrol pushes UK inflation to lowest since March 2017 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

Reuters - British economy on track for biggest contraction 'in living memory' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

Reuters - Rising UK unemployment pressures Sunak to renew job support (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist on U.K. Unemployment Q2

Reuters - UK economy flat-lines, hit by Brexit and global slowdown, as election nears (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. GDP

Reuters - UK business malaise deepened before election - PMI (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

REUTERS - U.S. factory activity growing at weakest pace since 2016 (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Manufacturing Activity

TELEGRAPH - Blistering US spending growth puts Fed on track for September rate hike (Media Centre)

Chief US economist Ian Shepherdson on US Consumer Spending

TELEGRAPH - Building sector slows down and could even fall into recession (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Construction

THE GUARDIAN - Shock UK deficit figures dent George Osborne's economic plan (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K Deficit

The Guardian - FTSE loses another £35bn as coronavirus rattles global markets (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the Coronavirus effect on the U.K. economy

The Guardian - Fears of no-deal Brexit push British export orders close to year low (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

The Guardian - Charity shop and antique purchases drive up UK retail sales (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in June

The Guardian - UK house prices make surprise 5.9% rise in February, Halifax says (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Halifax House Prices

THE GUARDIAN - UK manufacturing expects hard winter ahead (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

The Hill - Manufacturing is back, but don't thank Trump (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson with a guest column in The Hill on U.S. Manufacturing

The Hill - Federal Reserve's efforts on coronavirus raise eyebrows (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest from the Fed

THE GUARDIAN - UK manufacturing growth slows in November (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

THE GUARDIAN - British service sector back in growth, according to latest data (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Services sector

TELEGRAPH - Eurozone's central bankers consider letting inflation run hot (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the Eurozone Inflation

TELEGRAPH - Eurozone stuck in deflation for fourth straight month (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone deflation

Telegraph - Eurozone slowdown gathers pace after Italy budget upset (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone Growth

Telegraph - House price growth jumps to highest since March despite weaker market post-Brexit vote (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Halifax House Price Index in December

TELEGRAPH - House prices soar, fuelled by sky-high rises in London flats - but uncertainty lies ahead (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

TELEGRAPH - Why Britain's shopping spree will come at a cost (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. employment

TELEGRAPH - UK house prices slip as market feels a chill (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

Telegraph - Tax hikes add to inflation pressure (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

Question of the Week, WC 9th July (Media Centre)

Why is the EZ current account surplus rising and net exports falling at the same time? 

Bloomberg - Brexit: London's status as a Financial Hub (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg - WaPo Op-Ed: 'This Is How Fascism Comes to America' (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg - What Economists Are Saying Ahead of the U.S. Jobs Report for May (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson in U.S. Employment for May

Bloomberg - Vistesen: Merkel won't get anything from Trump meeting (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen discussing the meeting between Angela Merkel and Donald Trump

Bloomberg - US core capital goods orders lend support to dollar (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing Durable Goods Orders in May

Bloomberg - Surveillance: Dollar Centrality Is Up, Mallaby Says (Podcast) (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen discussing Italy

Bloomberg - U.S. Capital-Equipment (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing Durable Goods Orders in May

Bloomberg - Why the Justice Department Went After the Wrong Deal (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing U.S. Economy

Bloomberg Surveillance : U.S. In Good Shape, Laidler Says (Podcast) (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing the Fed and the Coronavirus

BUSINESS INSIDER - Consumer confidence spikes in June (Media Centre)

Chief US economist Ian Shepherdson on June Consumer Confidence data

BUSINESS INSIDER - ECONOMIST: 'The wage number is wrong, payrolls are strong.' (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Employment

BUSINESS INSIDER - Car sales are going through the roof with Europe's surprising spending recovery (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on European Car Sales

BUSINESS INSIDER - Brits are hoarding cash post-Brexit -- and it's a 'worrying signal' for the economy (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Money Supply

BUSINESS INSIDER - Britain's government could make the pound's crash even worse (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the government's fiscal policy

BLOOMBERG - Mexico Retail Sales Jump by Most Since 2012 as Inflation Eases (Media Centre)

Senior International Economist Andres Abadia on mexico

BLOOMBERG - Mexico GDP Growth Beats Forecasts as Services Provide Boost (Media Centre)

Andres Abadia on Mexico GDP Growth

BLOOMBERG - Chile Labor Market Defies Slowdown as Manufacturing Shrinks (Media Centre)

Senior International Economist Andres Abadia on Chile's jobless rate

BLOOMBERG - Chile Prices Rise More Than Forecast as Inflation Picks Up (Media Centre)

Senior International Economist Andres Abadia comments on the latest Inflation data for Chile

BLOOMBERG - And Now It's Time to Talk About the Fed (Media Centre)

With today's jobs report confirming a strong labor market recovery, it's time to turn our attention back to the Fed

BBC World News - Coronavirus: Italy lockdown (Media Centre)

Cheif Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen discussing the Coronavirus response in Europe and the upcoming ECB meeting this week

BBC News - Weak November weighs on UK growth (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

BLOOMBERG - Chile's Economy Grows More Than Forecast as Demand Picks Up (Media Centre)

Senior International economist Andres Abadia comments on Chile's economic growth

BLOOMBERG - Chile's Economy Resumes Growth as Domestic Demand Picks Up (Media Centre)

Senior International Economist Andres Abadia on Chile's economy

Bloomberg - How Fed Rate Hike Messaging Impacts the Economy (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg - Latvia Scandal Places ECB Under Spotlight as Bank Supervisor (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Latvia

BLOOMBERG - Fiscal spending cushions Chile's first contraction in 6 years (Media Centre)

Senior International Economist Andres Abadia on Chile GDP.

Bloomberg - ECB About to Turn Up Printing Press to Finance Europe's Recovery (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the latest action from the ECB

Business Insider - Here are 3 big reasons why Germany's economy is flopping -- and why recession could be around the corner (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen discussing Germany's economy

Business Insider - There's a coming storm set to 'batter' the UK economy -- and it has nothing to do with Brexit (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs the recent increase in Oil

Business Insider - These 7 charts show the effect of Trump's trade war on the US economy -- and why a big slowdown is looming (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest from the U.S. Economy

BUSINESS INSIDER - The US trade deficit tumbled to a 5-month low in November (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the U.S. Trade Deficit

Independent - Trump has made a lot of claims at Davos -- especially about the US economy. Here's the truth behind the bluster (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on Donald Trump's comments in Davos

Business Insider - Trump's trade war is triggering a 'sharp slowdown' among American small businesses (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest NFIB data

BUSINESS INSIDER - US trade deficit balloons (Media Centre)

The US trade deficit unexpectedly widened by 17% to $46.6 billion in December from $39.8 billion in November.

Business Insider - US weekly jobless claims hit 3 million, bringing the 8-week total to more than 36 million (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Jobless Claims

Business Insider - US housing starts fell by the most on record in April (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Housing starts

Business Insider - US consumer confidence snaps 3-month growth streak as new COVID outbreaks stifle reopening optimism (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Consumer Confidence

Business Insider - US consumer confidence drops for 2nd straight month as virus cuts deeper into spending and hiring (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Consumer Confidence

Business Insider - The Tories might not get the crushing victory they expect in this election (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing the General Election in June

Business Insider - The pound's general election jump faces a 'swift reversal' as reality takes hold (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing the effect the general election will have on the pound,

BUSINESS INSIDER - It was a rough morning for the US economy (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson comments on Retail Sales data for June

Business Insider - London's house prices are growing at their slowest rate since 2012 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on Nationwide's June House Price Index

BUSINESS INSIDER - Housing Starts Surge In December (Media Centre)

Housing Starts Surge In December

BUSINESS INSIDER - Homebuilder sentiment dropped in November (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on NAHB

BUSINESS INSIDER - New home sales crush expectations (Media Centre)

Chief US Economist Ian Shepherdson on "Remarkable" New Home Sales Data for February

BUSINESS INSIDER - The idea that Brexit isn't totally screwing the economy is 'baloney' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the impact of the Referendum

Business Insider - The only analyst who called the June 8 election correctly now says there is 'clear evidence that the Brexit vote has been bad for the economy' (Media Centre)

A look back on Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Toombs' predictions ahead of the U.K. General Election

BUSINESS INSIDER - Retail sales tank....then again, the weather was terrible (Media Centre)

Chief US Economist Ian Shepherdson attributes bad weather to February US Retail Sales

BBC NEWS - Warm weather lifts retail sales in July (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in July

BBC News - Wages back above pre-economic crisis levels (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Employment

BBC - UK economic growth 'stalls' as service sector slides (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. PMI data in November

BBC - UK economic growth slows to 0.4% in first quarter (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

BBC - UK car sales fall for fifth month in a row (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. New Car Registrations

BBC - UK car sales fall 9.3% in July says motor trade body (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. New Car Registrations, July

BBC - Retail sales in first annual fall since 2013 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales

BBC - UK economy grows at fastest rate since late 2016 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP in Q3

BBC - UK goods trade gap biggest on record (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs Discussing the UK Goods Trade

BBC - UK manufacturing output at its highest for 10 years (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing Output

BBC - UK retail sales hit by mild autumn (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in October

BBC - UK industrial production shrank in 2015 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Industrial Production

BBC - UK government borrowing narrows after EU credit (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Government Borrowing

BBC - UK government borrowing lowest for 11 years (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on Government Borrowing

BBC - Manufacturing shrinks as Brexit stockpiling halts (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

BBC - Italy's economy stalls as eurozone slows down (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen discussing Italian GDP

Asia Webinar October 2019: Can China Afford to Wait out Mr. Trump? (Media Centre)

• China's economy remains weak after more than a year of easing. • Are the authorities willing to see GDP growth slow further? • Are they making a big policy blunder, running the economy too tight?

Barron's - China's Latest Numbers Aren't as Good as They Look (Media Centre)

Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish on China's PMI data

Asia Webinar February 2020: Coronavirus Will Cause A Q1 GDP Contraction...But Catch-Up Growth Should Then Be Strong (Media Centre)

Topic: Coronavirus means a Contraction in Chinese GDP in Q1 Growth should rebound sharply thereafter, but the recovery will be uneven Reducing tariffs is a smart move  What measures will the authorities take to cushion demand

ABC NEWS - US Job Openings Jump to 14-Year High, Sign of Strong Hiring (Media Centre)

The rapid hiring that made 2014 a stellar year for job gains is showing no sign of slowing down.

ABC News - Trump administration reveals plans for massive tax cuts (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson speaking about Donald Trump's plans for sweeping tax cuts

Barrons - Home Sales Were Surprisingly Strong. Here's Why Builders' Stocks Are Falling (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Home Sales

BBC - Banks report new year buy-to-let rush (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Mortgage approvals

BBC - House prices in UK shift to lower gear (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. House Prices

BBC - House prices slip in May in subdued market (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

BBC - Eurozone growth hit 10-year high in 2017 (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone growth

BBC - Eurozone growth hit 10-year high in 2017 (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone growth

BBC - Eurozone economy to grow at faster rate, says central bank (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the ECB

BBC - UK third quarter GDP confirmed at 0.5% (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on UK Q3 GDP

BBC - US economic growth slows to 2.3 (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing U.S. Q1 GDP

BBC News - U.S. wage growth hits nine-year high (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on August Employment data

BBC NEWS - UK 'at risk of slipping into recession' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the latest PMI data

BBC News - Retail sales fall sharply in November (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in November

BBC NEWS - Inflation surprise as computer game prices drop (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation Growth

BBC News - House prices see largest monthly fall for 11 years, says Nationwide (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K House Prices

BBC NEWS - UK construction sector slows down in January (Media Centre)

Chief U.K.. economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. Construction

BBC NEWS - UK employment hits another record high (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the latest employment figures

BBC News - US economic growth slowest this year (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on Q3 GDP

BBC NEWS - US jobs shock as growth slows (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest employment data.

BBC NEWS - US economic growth continues to slow (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. GDP in Q4

BBC NEWS - UK new car sales rise in September (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. New Car Sales

BBC NEWS - UK growth rebound eases recession fears (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the latest GDP figures

BBC News - Government borrowing in June highest since 2015 (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Public Sector borrowing

BBC NEWS - Government borrowing falls in first half of year (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on Government borrowing

BBC News - Bank of England keeps interest rates on hold (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Bank of England Interest Rates

BBC News - Coronavirus Outbreak (Media Centre)

Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish discussing the impact of the Coronavirus on the Chinese Economy

BBC - Wage growth hit by higher inflation (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the latest U.K. Labour Market Data

BBC - US jobs growth jumps in November (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Employment in November

BBC - US jobless rate at lowest since 1969 (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. payroll gains

BBC News - Coronavirus pushes German economy into recession (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the German economy

BBC News - Coronavirus: Eurozone economy shrinks at record rate (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the German Labour Market

BBC NEWS - German economy narrowly avoids recession (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Germany's economy

BBC News - German economy sees weakest growth since 2013 (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the German Economy

BBC News - Eurozone economy barely growing at all (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the Eurozone Economy

BBC News - Coronavirus: UK economy 'set for deepest downturn in memory' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

BBC News - Coronavirus: Record number of Americans file for unemployment (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on today's U.S. Unemployment data

Business Insider - We just got another sign that Brexit is ending the consumer boom (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales

BUSINESS INSIDER - Top economist throws shade at the 'research institute' that releases a widely followed jobs number (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdsonon why the ADP report is simply not a reliable indicator

FINANCIAL TIMES - UK house price falls - how much is down to Brexit? (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

FINANCIAL TIMES - UK housing market stabilises after Brexit vote (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Mortgage Approvals

Financial Times - Risks remain high in Argentina (Media Centre)

Chief Latam Economist Andres Abadia on Argentina

Financial Times - Mortgage borrowing rise signals stabilisation in UK house market (Media Centre)

Chief UK Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Mortgage Borrowing

FINANCIAL TIMES - Lower oil prices cut two ways for US economy (Media Centre)

Lower oil prices cut two ways for US economy

Financial Times - Mexico inflation rate ends 2017 at 16-year high (Media Centre)

Senior International Economist Andres Adabia on Mexico Inflation

Financial Times - UK manufacturing contraction eases in May (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K Manufacturing in May

Financial Times - UK manufacturing down to lowest capacity utilisation rate on record (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Unemployment

Financial Times - US durable goods orders rise by most in 7 months in March (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing U.S. Durable Goods Orders

Financial Times - US housing starts rise for second month in April (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. housing starts

Financial Times - Uptick in French business confidence dulled by manufacturing (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on French Business Confidence

Financial Times - Uncertainty puts brakes on UK car market (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Automotive Industry

Financial Times - UK retail sales weak before coronavirus lockdown (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in February

Financial Times - Lending growth among EU member states diverges (Media Centre)

Claus Vistesen on Eurozone Business Lending

FINANCIAL TIMES - Jobs data give Bank of England leverage to keep rates low (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. employment

Financial Times - Eurozone core inflation 'oddly weak' say analysts (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone Inflaiton

FINANCIAL TIMES - Eurozone current account surplus hits fresh record (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone Current Account

FINANCIAL TIMES - Eurozone climbs out of deflation in June (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone Inflation.

Financial Times - European economic sentiment tumbled in early March (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Economic Sentiment

Financial Times - Economists split over impact of UK election outcome (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Election

Business Insider U.K. - The best of 2018 may already be over for the pound (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing sterling in 2018

Financial Times - Eurozone investors turn positive for first time in eight months (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on sentix in December

Financial Times - Halifax data strengthen evidence of uptick in UK house prices (Media Centre)

Chief U.K Economist Samuel Tombs on UK Halifax House Prices in July

Financial Times - Inflation dip raises doubts over May interest rate rise (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. Inflation

FINANCIAL TIMES - German industrial production falls unexpectedly for July (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on German Industrial Production

Financial Times - German economic confidence slides in March (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen discussing the German Zew in April

FINANCIAL TIMES - French consumers turn pessimistic in June (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on French Consumer Spending.

Financial Times - US stocks on track for gains as coronavirus cases set to peak (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest Covid-19 data from the U.S.

Financial Times - Wall Street set for gains as cautious optimism ripples through markets (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson with the latest Covid-19 data

GUARDIAN - UK manufacturers suffer further drop in orders, CBI survey shows (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. manufacturing

GUARDIAN - UK service companies anxious about year ahead (Media Centre)

Chief U.K.. economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. PMI

GUARDIAN - UK inflation steady at 2.4% in October after food price war (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

Guardian - UK house prices fell in January for the first time in five months (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

GUARDIAN - UK house prices edge up 0.2% in April (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

Guardian - Unemployment in US and UK 'may be worse than in Great Depression' (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the latest data from the Eurozone

Guardian - Weak UK growth and tax revenues put the squeeze on Hammond (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on UK Government Borrowing

INDEPENDENT - The chart that shows the UK economic recovery is "on its knees" (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. PMI data, April

Independent - Japan's economy shrinks at fastest pace on record, despite no coronavirus lockdown (Media Centre)

Senior Asia Economist Miguel Chanco on Japan GDP, Q2

Independent - House price growth surges to 5.2% in May, says Halifax (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on Halifax House Price Index in May

GUARDIAN - UK house price growth up in final set of figures before vote to leave EU (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

Guardian - UK GDP growth slower than expected as inflation bites (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing Q1 GDP Results

Finncial Times - European investment plunge raises fears for future growth (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Consumer Spending

FORBES - All Change In Argentina -- For The Better (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the recent elections in Argentina

Financial Times. - Inflation ticks up for first time since January (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K CPI

Financial Times. - Economists warn of US 'wasteland' without stimulus deal (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the lack of new U.S. Fiscal stimulus

Financial Times - What China wants: Brad Setser, and Freya Beamish (Media Centre)

Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish discussing China.

GUARDIAN - Brexit uncertainty hits plans to cut budget deficit (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Public Finances

Guardian - UK economy already flatlining before coronavirus, figures reveal (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP in February

Guardian - UK factory output grows at fastest rate since mid-1990s (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey

Guardian - UK consumers face sharpest price rise in services for nearly a decade (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Price Increases

Guardian - Record rise in import costs dents growth in UK manufacturing (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

Guardian - Global firms halt China travel as coronavirus spooks markets (Media Centre)

Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish on the impact of the Coronavirus on the Chinese Economy

Financial Times - Economists react as eurozone unemployment hits fresh post-crisis low (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone unemployment

FINANCIAL TIMES - Eurozone industrial output drops in month after UK's Brexit vote (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone Industrial Production

CITY AM - Eurozone sees faster money supply growth (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen comments on the Eurozone's Money Supply

CITY AM - Eurozone economy comes off the boil in January despite rebound in end-of-year retail sales (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone economist Claus Vistesen comments on the Eurozone PMIs

City A.M. - UK economy set to return to growth in third quarter after coronavirus chaos (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K PMI

City AM - Rising confidence from consumers and businesses point to faster growth in second quarter (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. Consumer Confidence

FINANCIAL TIMES - Eastern Europe vulnerable to Brexit fallout (Media Centre)

Senior International Economist Andres Abadia on Latam currency risks.

CNBC - EU ill-equipped to take a stand on Catalan independence (Media Centre)

Claus Vistesen says that the Catalan independence movement has no international support for its cause.

CNBC - European stocks close higher after referendum rejection (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the Italian Referendum result

CNBC - ECB controversy over speech that sank the euro (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen comments on ECB speech changes

CNBC - Coronavirus hits U.S. job market -- Jim Cramer and others weigh in (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. the impact of the Coronavirus on the U.S. Economy

CNBC - Can German shoppers save the euro zone? (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the latest German consumer figures

City A.M. - Retail sales decline for longest stretch in eight years (Media Centre)

Chief UK Economist Samuel Tombs on UK Retail Sales

CITY A.M. - Cheap energy and low interest rates lift Eurozone consumers (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen comments on Eurozone Consumer Confidence

Business Insiders - The UK, German and Italian economies are all tanking at the same time (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone Economies

Business Times - Hawkish Fed, weak yuan signal more trouble ahead for emerging markets (Media Centre)

Chief Asia economist Freya Beamish on the weak yuan

BUSINESS INSIDER UK - BRITAIN BEATS -- GDP figures shrug off Brexit and smash expectations (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Q3 Preliminary GDP data

Business Insider U.K. - These 4 charts will define the British economy at the start of 2018 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Economy in 2018

CBS NEWS - European Central Bank unveils major stimulus program (Media Centre)

European Central Bank unveils major stimulus program...

CBS NEWS - Will Syriza win rock the global economy? (Media Centre)

Claus Vistesen on the Greek election results impact on the Eurozone

CHANNEL NEWS ASIA - US weekly jobless claims fall 14% (Media Centre)

Initial jobless claims, a sign of the pace of layoffs, dropped to a seasonally-adjusted 265,000 in the week ending Jan 24, a hefty decline of 43,000 from the prior week's slightly upwardly revised level of 308,000

CBS NEWS - U.S. economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. economist Ian Shepherdson comments on U.S Q4 GDP

CBS NEWS - Is Greece headed for eurozone exit? (Media Centre)

Claus Vistesen comments on the aftermath of the Greek referendum

CBS NEWS - GM plant closings, layoffs indicate a cooling U.S. economy (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in October

CNBC - Eurozone's economy grows 0.3 percent in third quarter, up 1.6 percent on last year (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone GDP data in Q3

CNBC - Argentina's bonds fall after leftists sweep to power in presidential election (Media Centre)

Chief LatAm Economist Andres Abadia on the Argentina Election

EURO INSIGHT - Households Save the Day for Eurozone GDP (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone GDP

Eurozone Webinar March 2020: How will the ECB respond to the Coronavirus, if at all? (Media Centre)

How will the ECB respond to the Coronavirus, if at all?

DAILY TELEGRAPH - Surprise comeback for France as economy grows twice as fast as UK (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone economist Claus Vistesen comments on the latest GDP figures from France

DAILY TELEGRAPH - Germany's economic revival threatened by Greek crisis and Russian uncertainty (Media Centre)

A closely watched indicator of the German economy has come in weaker than analysts had anticipated, dampening hopes for the country's revival

DAILY TELEGRAPH - Eurozone surveys make for 'grim reading' as region stutters (Media Centre)

Eurozone surveys make for 'grim reading' as region stutters

Eurozone Webinar September 2020: What's the ECB's Next Move? (Media Centre)

What's the ECB's Next Move?

CNBC - Fed hike hint surprises economist (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Ian Shepherdson on Brexit risk to a June rate hike

FINANCIAL TIMES - British shoppers delay spending ahead of Black Friday (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. CBI survey, November

Financial Times - Confidence in UK house prices wobbles despite October rise (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. House Prices

Financial Times - Analysts weighs in on 'status quo' round of Fed minutes (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson comments on the Fed Monetary Policy Meeting in March

Financial Times - Analysts warn rise in UK retail sales may be a 'blip' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs ok U.K. Retail Sales

Financial Times - 'Shackles are still on': analysts respond to UK economic growth data (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. growth data

DAILY TELEGRAPH - Euro slump offers lifeline to ailing Europe (Media Centre)

Claus Vistesen comments on Eurozone deflation

Express - Price growth set to slow for June - but analysts predict further inflation this year (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on Consumer Price Index, June

CNBC - Greece is selling bonds again, but they're not out of the woods yet (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the Greek return to the market

CNBC - Is Draghi about to massively misfire? (Media Centre)

Is Draghi about to massively misfire?

CNBC - Governments issued more debt than ever last month. How worried should we be? (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing Global debt

CNBC - German investor morale soars--too good to be true? (Media Centre)

German investor morale soars--too good to be true?

DAILY TELEGRAPH - Dollar dives as weak US retail sales data raises growth fears (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson on December's low US retail sales.

CNBC - Jobless claims total 1.5 million, worse than expected as economic pain persists (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

CNBC - Greece hits back at reports of euro zone 'shock' (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Greece

CNBC - There's one 'real success story' in the euro zone (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone GDP

CNBC - Prepare for a 'mini-drop' in volatility this week (Media Centre)

Prepare for a 'mini-drop' in volatility this week

CNBC - Renzi referendum defeat won't break 'flawed' euro here (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the U.S. and European Economies

CNBC - Total of those receiving unemployment benefits falls below 20 million (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Unemployment

CNBC - Record abstention figures could boost Le Pen's chances in the upcoming election (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen with the latest on the French Election

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Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson's mission is to present complex economic ideas in a clear, understandable and actionable manner to financial market professionals. He has worked in and around financial markets for more than 20 years, developing a strong sense for what is important to investors, traders, salespeople and risk managers.

Chartbook

Monthly publication telling the economic story of each region in roughly 40 charts

Samuel Tombs

Samuel Tombs has more than a decade of experience covering the U.K. economy for investors. At Pantheon, Samuel's research is rigorous, free of dogma and jargon, and unafraid to challenge consensus views. His work focuses on what matters to professional investors: The links between the real economy, monetary policy and asset prices. He has a strong track record of getting the big calls right. The Sunday Times ranked Samuel as the most accurate forecaster of the U.K. economy in both 2014 and 2018. In addition, Bloomberg consistently has ranked Samuel as one of the top three U.K. forecasters, out of pool of 35 economists, throughout 2018 and 2019. His in-depth knowledge of market-moving data and his forensic forecasting approach explain why he consistently beats the consensus. Samuel's work on Brexit goes beyond simply reporting developments and is always analytical and unbiased, enabling investors to see through the noise of the daily headlines. While his analysis points to a particular path that politicians will take, he acknowledges the inherent uncertainty and draws out the economic and financial market implications of all plausible Brexit scenarios. Samuel holds an MSc in Economics from Birkbeck College, University of London and an undergraduate degree in History and Economics from the University of Oxford. Prior to joining Pantheon in 2015, he was Senior U.K. Economist at Capital Economics. In 2011, Samuel won the Society of Business Economists' prestigious Rybczynski Prize for an article on quantitative easing in the UK. He is based in London but frequently visits our other offices. Recent key calls include: 2018 - Correctly forecast that GDP growth would slow and inflation would undershoot the MPC's initial forecast, prompting the Committee to shock investors and almost other economists by waiting until August to raise Bank Rate, rather than pressing ahead in May. 2017 - Argued that the MPC was wrong to expect CPI inflation to stay below 3% following sterling's depreciation. He also highlighted that economic indicators pointed to the Conservatives losing their outright majority in the snap general election.

Weekly Economic Monitor

Weekly economic research from the U.S., Eurozone, Latin America, U.K. and Asia

Datanotes

Short, punchy analysis of major economic data, emailed within a few minutes of their release

Question of the week (Media Centre)

Webinars (Media Centre)

Daily Economic Monitor

Daily economic research from the U.S., Eurozone, Latin America, U.K. and Asia

Pantheon ranked top forecaster of the U.K. economy in 2018

We are pleased to announce that our Chief U.K. Economist, Samuel Tombs, was ranked the most accurate forecaster of the U.K. economy in 2018 by The Sunday Times.

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