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15 August 2017 Weak Q2 for Mexico's Industrial Activity, but What Happens in Q3? (Publication Centre)

Last week's industrial report confirmed that the Mexican economy softened at the end of the second quarter. Industrial production was unchanged year- over-year in June, calendar-and seasonally adjusted, down marginally from +0.1% in May.

15 Dec. 2015 Solid Industrial Production in the Eurozone Given Global Weakness (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in Eurozone had a decent start to the fourth quarter. Output ex-construction rose 0.6% month-to-month in October, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 1.9% from a revised 1.3% in September. Production was lifted by gains in the major economies, and surging output in the Netherlands, Portugal and Lithuania. Across sectors, increases in production of capital and consumer goods were the main drivers, but energy output also helped, due to a cold spell lifting demand and production in France.

14 July 2020 India's Industrial Bounce won't get Much Help from Weak Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The year-over-year collapse of industrial production in India eased substantially in May, to -35%, from -58% in April, close to our -32% forecast.

14 Jan. 2015 Industrial Production: A Tale of the Two Major LatAm Economies (Publication Centre)

On Monday we highlighted the grim state of the Brazilian industrial sector, where output fell by a huge 5.8% year-over-year in November. By contrast, the outlook for Mexico's industrial sector is much brighter.

14 December 2018 Look Behind the Headlines for the Real Retail and Industrial Stories (Publication Centre)

We argued earlier this week that the data on the consumer economy are likely to be rather stronger than the industrial numbers.

15 June 2020 Mexico's Industrial Collapse is Bottoming-Out, but Q3 will be Tough (Publication Centre)

Mexico's industrial recession deepened in April, though some leading indicators suggest that the worst is over as the economy gradually reopens. But downside risks have increased dramatically in recent weeks, as the pandemic seems to be gathering renewed strength.

15 November. 2016 Mexico's Benign Industrial Outlook Clouded by the U.S. Policy Agenda (Publication Centre)

Mexico's latest industrial production data were worse than we expected. Output rose just 0.1% month-to-month in September, pushing the year- over-year rate down to -1.3%, from a downwardly revised +0.2% in August.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: A mixed industrial picture; manufacturing output is weakening, but other sectors seem to be reviving.

18 April 2017 The Weather is Playing Tricks with EZ Industrial Production Data (Publication Centre)

As warned--see our Monitor April 7--economic data in the Eurozone disappointed while we were away. Industrial production, ex-construction, in the euro area slipped 0.3% month-to-month in February, and the January month-to-month gain was revised down by 0.6 percentage point to +0.3%.

17 Feb. 2016 Behind Utility-Hit Headlines, the Industrial Sector is Growing, Jus (Publication Centre)

If the collapse in oil sector capex and the strong dollar were going to push the industrial economy into recession, it probably would have started by now

15 October 2018 Mexico's Industrial Output will Improve Fundamentals are Strong (Publication Centre)

The industrial production trajectory in Mexico looked strong going into Q3, but Friday's report for August threatens to change that picture.

13 October. 2016 EZ Industrial Production Rebounded Only Modestly in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday EZ industrial production report confirmed the message from advance country data that manufacturing rebounded towards the end of summer. Output, ex-construction, jumped 1.6% month-to-month in August, and the July data were revised up by 0.4 percentage points.

13 Nov. 2015 Mexican Domestic Industrial Sectors Offset External Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Mexican manufacturing data continue to offer a counterweight to strong consumers' spending and services numbers. Output in the key manufacturing sector contracted by 0.2% month-to-month in September, due mainly to severe external headwinds. But the year-over-year rate was unchanged at 3.3%, with a flat underlying trend. Total industrial output, by contrast, rose 0.4% month-to-month in September, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 1.7%, from an upwardly-revised 1.1% gain in August.

12 June. 2015 Industrial Output is on Track for a New Post-Crisis High This Year (Publication Centre)

Eurozone manufacturing probably stalled at the start of the second quarter. We think industrial production rose a mere 0.1% month-to-month in April, lower than the 0.4% consensus forecast, and equivalent to a 0.8% increase year-over-year. Output ex-construction was up 0.8% in Germany, but this is likely to be offset by declines in France and Italy, and a hefty 3.2% fall in Greece.

12 Nov 2019 Mexico's Industrial Sector did Well in Q3, but Leading Indicators are Grim (Publication Centre)

Mexico's industrial sector did relatively well in Q3, due mainly to the resilience of the manufacturing sector, and the rebound in construction and oil output, following a long period of sluggishness.

12 Feb. 2016 Mexico's Industrial Economy Struggled in Q4 - Better Ahead? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Mexican industrial data painted a downbeat picture of the sector at the end of last year, and highlighted the downside risks facing the economy in the first half of this year. Industrial output fell 0.1% month-to-month and was flat year over-year in December, with weakness in all sectors except manufacturing. Overall, industrial activity expanded by only 0.2% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, the slowest pace since late 2013.

12 August. 2015 Industrial Production in Mexico is Stabilizing, Better News Ahead? (Publication Centre)

Mexico's latest industrial production figures, released yesterday, showed that growth is stabilizing, but it likely will not accelerate any time soon. June output rose 1.4% year-over-year, rebounding from the 1.0% contraction in May, and matching April's gain. The increase in output was relatively broad-based, with solid gains in mining and utilities.

12 April 2017 Mexico's Industrial Sector Resilient in Q1, Despite External Threats (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production report in Mexico added weight to the idea that the sector improved marginally in the first quarter, despite many external threats. Industrial output rose 0.1% month-to-month in February, following a similar gain in January. The calendar-adjusted year-over-year rate rose to -0.1%, after a modest 0.3% contraction in January.

13 April 2018 Decent Industrial Data in Mexico, but Brazilian Retail Sales Weaken (Publication Centre)

Mexico's February industrial production report was weaker than markets expected. Output expanded by 0.7% year-over-year, below the consensus, 1.2%, and slowing from 0.9% in January.

13 December 2017 October's Dip in EZ Industrial Production is no Cause for Alarm (Publication Centre)

Today's industrial production data will confirm that EZ manufacturing suffered a slow start to Q4. Advance country data signal a 0.2% month-to-month fall in October, slightly worse than the consensus, 0.0%.

27 Sept 2019 Tempering Our Optimism on the Industrial Rebound in Q3 (Publication Centre)

We're revising down our forecast for quarteron-quarter GDP growth in Q3 to 0.3%, from 0.4%, in response to signs that the rebound in industrial production is shaping up to b e smaller than we had anticipated.

13 July. 2015 Industrial Production in Mexico stalled in May - But no panic, yet (Publication Centre)

Mexico's latest industrial production figures, released on Friday, showed that the recovery is stuttering. May output fell 0.9% year-over-year, down from the 1.2% gain in April. Total production was depressed by a 1.5% month-to-month drop in construction output, after two consecutive increases.

13 Jan. 2016 Mexico's Industrial Sector Still Slowing - Services to the Rescue? (Publication Centre)

November production data in Mexico, released Monday, showed that the industrial economy remained quite soft in the last part of last year. The collapse in capital spending in the oil sector, slowing public spending, and weaker growth in EM and the U.S. manufacturing sector have combined to hit Mexican industrial output quite hard. Total production rose just 0.1% year-over-year in November, down from an already weak 0.5% in October, and below the 1.3% average increase in Q3. Output fell 0.5% month-to-month, the biggest drop since May, reflecting broad-based weakness.

13 February 2019 EZ Industrial Output Slumped in Q4, but Q1 Will Be Better (Publication Centre)

Today's industrial production report in the Eurozone will be poor.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: A decent start to Q4 for the industrial sector.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: The modest industrial recovery continues, but Covid-19 will make things worse.

4 February 2019 Brazil's Q4 Industrial Weakness was Offset by Robust Consumption (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December industrial production and labour reports, released late last week, confirmed that the recovery was struggling at the end of last year.

4 Apr. 2016 Did the Brazilian Industrial Slump Ease Significantly in Q1? (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian manufacturing sector remains very depressed by weak end-demand, but the misery is easing, at the margin. Industrial production fell 2.5% month-to-month in February, equivalent to an eye-watering 9.8% contraction year-over-year, but this was rather less bad than the 13.6% slump in January.

5 June 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector is Suffering, but the Worst is Likely Over (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's industrial production report in Brazil was terrible, despite overshooting market expectations.

5 May 2017 Brazil's Industrial Output Dropped in March, but the Trend is Rising (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's Brazilian industrial production data were worse than we expected but the details were less alarming than the headline. Output slipped 1.8% month-to-month in March, the biggest fall since August 2015, setting a low starting point for Q2.

5 September. 2016 Brazil's Industrial Sector is Stabilizing - Modest Gains Ahead? (Publication Centre)

Friday's Brazil industrial production data were surprisingly upbeat. Output rose 0.1% month-to-month in July, slightly better than the consensus forecast for no change. July's modest gain was the fifth consecutive increase, confirming that industrial output in Brazil is stabilizing, and it paints a less grim picture of GDP growth at the start of Q3.

30 Mar 2020 Industrial Profits Data Complete China's Grim Start to 2020 (Publication Centre)

Industrial profits in China collapsed by 38.3% year- over-year in the first two months of 2020, making December's 6.3% fall look like a minor blip.

3 June. 2015 Brazil's Industrial meltdown continues - Better news elsewhere (Publication Centre)

Brazil industrial production continues to edge lower, falling 1.2% month-to-month in April, a 7.6% year-over-year drop. In March, output was down only 3.4% year-over-year, but the data are volatile in the short-term. The trend is about -7%, down from -3.8% in the second half of last year.

29 January 2019 Industrial Profits in China Remain Terrible, Underneath the Surface (Publication Centre)

China's industrial profits data for December showed continued weakness in the sector, with no clear signs that a turnaround is in the offing.

29 May 2019 Chinese Industrial Profits Tanked in April, after the March Spike (Publication Centre)

Industrial profits in China dropped 3.7% year-over- year in April, after surging 13.9% in March, according to the officially reported data.

3 April 2019 A Decent Industrial Report in Brazil, but the Rebound Remains Subpar (Publication Centre)

Brazil's February industrial production numbers, labour market data, and sentiment indicators are gradually providing clarity on the underlying pace of activity growth, pointing to some red flags.

3 February 2017 Brazil's Q4 Industrial Output was Poor, Q1 Will be Much Better (Publication Centre)

Brazil's Q4 industrial production report, released Wednesday, confirmed that the recovery remained sluggish at the end of last year. December's print alone was relatively strong, though, and the cyclical correction in inventories--on the back of improving demand--lower interest rates, and the better external outlook, all suggest that the industrial economy will do much better this year.

6 January 2017 Brazil's Industrial Recovery is Underway, but it is Painfully Slow (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Brazilian industrial production data continue to tell a story of a slow business cycle upturn. Output rose 0.2% month-to-month in November, after a downwardly revised 1.2% plunge in October. The year-over-year rate, though, jumped to -1.1%, from -7.3% in October. The underlying trend is now on the mend, following weakness in Q3 and early Q4. Output rose in November three of the four major categories and in 13 of the 24 sectors.

6 July 2018 Industrial Activity in LatAm Taking Different Paths, Temporarily at Least (Publication Centre)

Industrial activity in LatAm, at least in the largest economies, is taking different paths.

8 Dec. 2015 Energy Production Will Depress German Industrial Output in Q4 (Publication Centre)

German industrial output was off to a sluggish start in the fourth quarter. Production eked out a marginal 0.2% month-to-month gain in October, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 0.0% from a revised 0.4% in September. Manufacturing output rose 0.6%, led by a 2.7% jump in production of capital goods, but the underlying trend in the sector overall is flat. On a more positive note, construction output rose 0.7% month-to-month in October, and leading indicators suggest this could be the beginning of a string of gains, lifting investment spending in coming quarters.

7 March 2018 Brazil's Industrial Sector Remains Solid, Despite Slipping in January (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector was off to a soft-looking start in Q1, but the fall in January output was chiefly payback for an especially strong end to 2017.

9 January 2019 Brazil's Industrial Sector Ended Q4 on a Weak Footing Can it Improve (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector is still struggling, despite recent signs of better economic and financial conditions.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production and unemployment, Chile, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft industrial data, and external conditions for EM economies are becoming increasingly challenging

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production and unemployment, Chile, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Good industrial production numbers; the labour market is still struggling.

6 September 2017 Will the Brazilian Industrial Sector Continue to Perform Strongly? (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector came roaring back at the start of Q3, following a poor end to Q2. Industrial production jumped 0.8% month-to-month in July, driving the year-over-year rate higher to 2.5%, from 0.5% in June and just 0.1% on average in Q2.

6 Nov. 2015 Brazil's Industrial Recession Deepens - Chile's Recovery in Place (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector continues to suffer, despite September's report surprising marginally on the upside. Output contracted 1.3% month-to-month in September, after a 0.9% fall in August, pushing the year over-year rate down to -10.9% down from -8.8% in August. This is the biggest drop since April 2009. Output has fallen an eye-popping -7.4% year-to-date, and in the third quarter alone activity contracted by 3.2% quarter-on-quarter, in line with our vie w for a 1.2% contraction in real GDP for the third quarter.

6 July 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector is on the Mend, but Downside Threats Remain (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector is still suffering, but the pain is easing as the economy gradually reopens. That said, full recovery is a long way off, and the pandemic is still far from over, adding downside risks to the recent upbeat picture.

2 November. 2016 Brazil Industrial Output Remains Sluggish, but Q4 will be Better (Publication Centre)

Brazil's September industrial production report, released yesterday, confirmed the message from survey data that the sector stabilized towards the end of summer. Output rose 0.5 month-to-month, and August output was revised up by 0.3 percentage points.

6 June 2018. Brazil's Industrial Sector Maintained Momentum in April, Will it Last? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production report in Brazil was sizzling. Headline output jumped 0.8% month- to-month in April--well above the 0.4% consensus-- pushing the year-over-year rate up to 8.9%, a five- year high.

6 May 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector Collapsed in March, It will Slide Further in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak severely dented industrial activity in Brazil.

11 November. 2016 French Industrial Output Weak in Q3, Likely Better in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's French industrial production data were worse than we expected. Output slipped 1.1% month-to-month in September, pushing the year-over-year rate down to -1.1% from a revised +0.4% in August. Mean-reversion was a big driver of the poor headline, given the upwardly-revised 2.4% jump in August.

13 Mar. 2015 Q1 GDP outlook is still decent, despite poor Industrial Production (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in the Eurozone fell a disappointing 0.1% month-on-month in January, driven by low output in Italy and Germany, as well as a large drop in Finland. But December production was revised up to 0.3% month-to-month, from the initially estimated 0.0%.

11 April 2018 February Data Likely will Show that the Industrial Revival is Losing Pace (Publication Centre)

Industrial production hit its stride last year, notching up eight consecutive month-to-month gains--the longest run of unbroken growth since May 1994--before a setback in December, which was triggered by the temporary closure of the Forties oil pipeline.

09 Mar. 2016 Surge in German Industrial Output Will Partly Reverse Next Month (Publication Centre)

German industrial output rebounded strongly at the beginning of the Q1. Production surged 3.3% month-to-month in January, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 2.2%, from a revised -1.2% in December

1 November 2017 Rising Industrial Output Will Lift Chile's IMACEC, Jobs Wil Follow (Publication Centre)

Industrial output in Chile struggled late in the third quarter, falling 1.3% month-to-month in September. The year-over-year rate, calendar and seasonally adjusted, rose 2.4% in September, down from a revised 5.3% in August.

11 Dec. 2015 Upturn in French Industrial Output is Misleading and Won't Last (Publication Centre)

October industrial production data in France surprised to the upside yesterday, with headline output rising 0.5% month-to-month, well above the consensus estimate and our own forecast for a monthly fall. Production was lifted by a 5.1% month-to-month jump in energy output, due to unusually cold weather, offsetting a 0.5% decline in manufacturing output, the fifth drop in the past six months.

11 December 2018 Macro Data set to Split: Consumer Strength, Industrial Weakness (Publication Centre)

The next few months, perhaps the whole of the first quarter, are likely to see a clear split in the U.S. economic data, with numbers from the consumer side of the economy looking much better than the industrial numbers.

05 October. 2016 Weakness in Brazil Industrial Production will be Temporary (Publication Centre)

The outlook for Brazil's industrial economy is better than at any time since before the crisis. But data released this week highlighted that the recovery will be slow and bumpy.

11 May 2017 A Poor Q1 for French Industrial Production, but Q2 will be Better (Publication Centre)

French manufacturing came roaring back at the end of Q1. Industrial production jumped 2.0% month-to- month in March, driving the year-over-year rate higher to +2.0%, from a revised -0.7% in February.

11 May. Will March Industrial Production Break the Run of Bad News? (Publication Centre)

The popular belief that economists rarely agree about anything is reinforced by the extremely wide dispersion of forecasts for March industrial production. The forecasts range from the wildly optimistic prediction of a 1.9% month-to-month rise, to a downright miserable 0.3% decline. We think production rose by about 0.5% month-to-month, and this likely will be interpreted as a decent result, following the recent run of bad news.

03 Feb. 2016 Industrial Output Dived in Q4, But Reasons For Optimism in Brazil? (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic news this week remained bleak at the headline level, but some of the details were less terrible in than in recent months. Industrial production fell by a worse-than-expected 11.9% year-over-year in December, marginally up from the 12.4% drop in November.

3 July 2018 Tariffs and Truck Shortages are Creating Industrial Bottlenecks (Publication Centre)

The startling jump in supplier delivery times in the June ISM manufacturing survey, to a 14-year high, was due--according to the ISM press release--to disruptions to steel and aluminum supplies, transportation problems and "supplier labor issues".

EZ Datanote: EZ Industrial Production and ZEW (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid production data in Q1, but setback looms in Q2.

17 July 2017 Mexico's Industrial Sector Remains Subdued, Oil is Mainly to Blame (Publication Centre)

Upbeat survey data and relatively resilient consumer spending numbers indicate that the Mexican economy is in good shape, despite a marginal slowdown in most of Q2.

24 April 2019 Industrial Sentiment is Stabilizing, Despite the Richmond Fed Drop (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data were mixed, though disappointment over the weakening in the Richmond Fed survey should be tempered by a quick look at the history, shown in our first chart.

16 May 2019 The Industrial Sector is Bottoming April's IP Data are Misleading (Publication Centre)

We are not worried about the reported drop in April manufacturing output, which probably will reverse in May.

28 November 2018 No Level of Spin Can Paint China's Industrial Profits in a Better Light (Publication Centre)

The latest profits data out of China were grim, as we had expected.

15 May. 2015 Oil Still Depressing Industrial Production (Publication Centre)

The consequences of the collapse in oil prices continue to reverberate through the sector. The number of rigs in operation is still falling rapidly, but the rate of decline is slowing. According to data from Baker Hughes, Inc., an average of 23 rigs per week have ceased operation over the past four weeks, the slowest decline since December.

14 Nov 2019 EZ Industrial Production Fell in Q3, and Likely Will Slide Again in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in the EZ was held above water by Ireland at the end of Q3.

13 July 2020 Inflation in Brazil is Tame, Mexico's Industrial Recession Continues (Publication Centre)

Friday's June inflation data in Brazil confirmed that the ripples from the worst of the Covid shock were still being felt at the end of the quarter.

14 Sept. 2015 Mexico's industrial output slowed in August: The recovery Is feeble (Publication Centre)

Peru's central bank, the BCRP, capitulated to the sharp PEN depreciation this year--and acceleration of inflation--and unexpectedly increased interest rates by 25bp to 3.50% last Thursday, for the first time since January. This was a brave step, showing that policymakers are extremely worried about the pace of inflation, despite activity still running below potential. The BCRP argues, though, that activity will accelerate during the coming quarters, so they need now to control inflation by anchoring expectations.

15 July 2019 Jump in EZ Industrial Output in May won't be Sustained (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in the Eurozone stood tall mid-way through Q2, despite still-subdued leading indicators.

15 July 2019 Mexico's Industrial Sector Remains Subdued Banxico to Cut Soon (Publication Centre)

Downbeat sectoral data and weakening consumer spending numbers indicate that the Mexican economy remains in bad shape.

3 July 2019 Brazil's Industrial Sector is Showing Early Signs of Gradual Stabilization (Publication Centre)

Data released this week in Brazil underscored the effect of weaker external conditions. This adds to the poor domestic demand picture, which has been hit by high, albeit easing, political uncertainty.

4 July 2017 Why Hasn't EZ Industrial Output Responded to the PMIs? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMI data confirmed that the EZ manufacturing sector is in rude health. The manufacturing PMI in the euro area rose to a cyclical high of 57.4 in June, from 57.0 in May, slightly above the first estimate. New orders and output growth are robust, pushing work backlogs higher and helping to sustain employment growth.

6 December 2017 Low Rates Will Continue to Spur the Industrial Recovery in Brazil (Publication Centre)

Brazilian data strengthened early in Q4, supporting the case for the COPOM to slow the pace of rate cuts. We expect the SELIC policy rate to be lowered by 50bp today, to 7.0%.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, July and Q3 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mixed messages warn against coming to strong conclusions.

7 April 2017 Brace for Disappointing Industrial Production Data Today (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing orders in Germany recovered some ground in the middle of Q1, following the plunge at the beginning of the year. Factory orders rose 3.4% in February, pushing the year-over-year rate up to +4.6% from a revised 0.0% in January.

7 February 2019 Industrial and Retail Sectors to Drive December GDP Dip (Publication Centre)

December's GDP report, released next Monday, likely will maintain the flow of negative news on the U.K. economy.

EZ Datanote EZ Industrial Production and ZEW 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, but held back by a slide in Ireland; dip in the ZEW in line with the Sentix.

Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, FAI, May, China (Publication Centre)

In one line: Some improvement in retails sales, which now face renewed headwinds; infrastructure growth driver sputters.

5 December 2018 Brazil's Industrial Output Started Q4 Softly, but the Trend is Rising (Publication Centre)

Brazil's key data flow started Q4 on a soft note, but we still believe that the economic recovery will gather strength over the next three-to-six months.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another weak survey, but production will rebound in Q3.

4 Nov 2019 Brazil's Industrial Sector Improved in Q3, Colombia's Economy is Strong (Publication Centre)

Thursday and Friday were busy days for LatAm economy watchers. In Brazil, the data underscored our view that the economy is on the mend, but the recent upturn remains shaky, and external risks are still high.

EZ Datanote Industrial Production, France, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, but the road to a full recovery is long.

EZ Datanote Industrial Production, Germany, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery is underway, but it's a very slow start.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Slumping as firms run down inventories.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Unemployment, Chile, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A modest upturn is underway, but the overall picture remains bleak.

3 July. 2015 Surprising But Not Sustainable Jump in Brazil's Industrial Output (Publication Centre)

The second quarter is over but it is too early to give a reliable forecast of the pace of Brazilian GDP growth. However, an array of leading and coincident indicators points to a steep contraction in Q2 and a bleak second half of the year. Unemployment is leaping higher, along with inflation and household debt, and the ongoing monetary and fiscal tightening will further hurt the real economy ahead.

10 June 2019 Industrial Production in the EZ will Slow Significantly in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Friday's data provided the first bit of evidence that manufacturing in the Eurozone is headed for a slowdown in Q2, partly reversing the strength in Q1.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Probably understating the coronavirus hit.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Survey's poor construction means it is always too gloomy at the start of recoveries.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Continued weakness reflects the survey's construction and timing.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Understating the recovery, due to its poor construction.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with falling manufacturing output and a small drop in the PMI.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another positive sign, though the survey is not a precise guide to the PMI.

US Datanote: Industrial Production, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim, but no worse than implied by other data.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Big percentage increases from a depressed base = still depressed.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing beginning to recover, but a long way to go.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: GM drives up production; core manufacturing is stagnant.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Very bad, but worse to come.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing is still stagnating.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Decent core manufacturing hidden by weather-driven utility plunge.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: More ancient history.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ending the year on a very weak note.

UK Datanote U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still understating the manufacturing sector's recovery.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: No sign of a turnaround yet.

10 Jan 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector and Foreign Trade will Improve Gradually this Year (Publication Centre)

Survey data have been signalling a resilient Brazilian economy in the last few months, despite the broader challenges facing LatAm and the global economy in 2019.

10 January 2018 German Industrial Output Growth Won't Accelerate Much Further (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data in Germany were stellar, but base effects mean that the story for Q4 as a whole is less upbeat.

EZ Datanote: French Industrial Production and German Labour Costs (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid start to the year for manufacturing in France; every little helps.

11 Sept 2019 Is the Industrial Sector in France Running out of Luck in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in France rebounded only modestly at the start of Q3, despite favourable base effects.

11 Mar 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector Started Q1 Strongly, but it won't Last (Publication Centre)

This has been a very complicated week for LatAm policymakers, who are particularly uneasy about the performance of the FX market.

1 August 2018 Mexico's Q2 GDP Dips, Due to Weakness in the Industrial Sector (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of Q2 GDP in Mexico confirmed that the economy lost momentum in recent months.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Dire, even after accounting for seasonal quirks.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Wrecked by the GM strike, but the underlying picture is soft too.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Depressed by the GM strike, but the underlying picture is grim too, and still deteriorating.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Looks great but it won't last.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Calendar quirks explain the drop in manufacturing output; expect a rebound in May.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pre-Brexit preparations providing no relief this time.

U.S. Datanote: Industrial Production, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing is enduring a mild recession, but it probably won't deepen much further.

12 November 2018 Mexico's Industrial Sector did Well in Q3, but Politics are a Threat for 2019 (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy gathered strength in Q3, due mainly to the strength of the services sector, and the rebound in manufacturing, following a long period of sluggishness, helped by the solid U.S. economy and improving domestic confidence.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production and Labour Costs, Germany (Publication Centre)

In one line: Germany's recession all but confirmed.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not pretty, but light at the end of the tunnel; we hope.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Undershooting expectations, but we expect a modest rebound in Q3.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Trade and employment, France (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ugly activity data; temporary employment is crashing.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production and unemployment, Chile, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Early signs of stabilisation, but the rebound remains fragile.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production and unemployment, Chile, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Political uncertainty will weigh on the economy in Q4.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production and unemployment, Chile, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: A marginal improvement in manufacturing, offset by poor mining activity.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ugly, German manufacturing can't catch a break.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, March 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not pretty; construction will be revised lower.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, March 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ugly, and worse is to come.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Back to reality?

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible, but the worst is over.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: A bit better, but Q3 as a whole was weak.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing gain fails to offset weakness elsewhere.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great, but it won't last.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: A soft start to Q2, following an ugly Q1.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible data, and the near-term outlook is grim.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, January (Publication Centre)

A decent start to the year, but the coronavirus hit to the economy is looming.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still terrible, but a slow upturn is emerging.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Weak, but expect better data ahead.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sluggish, but production rose in Q3.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the un-adjusted headline; production did well at the start of Q2.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: A soft end to the year, but the underlying trend is stabilizing.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible, and more pain is coming.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: An ugly end to the first quarter, but output likely will stabilize in Q2.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Resilient manufacturing output offsets weakness elsewhere.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: A strong m/m increase, but downside threats remain.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Struggling, and external conditions point to challenging times ahead.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: A good start to the year, but the virus will be a big drag.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A solid rebound, but still a long way to full recovery.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: A soft start to the quarter, but leading indicators point to a decent Q3 as a whole.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible, but a modest upturn in key sectors is emerging.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not terrible, but Q4 as a whole will be soft.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production and Trade, Germany, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: So-so, but downside risks to the Q2 GDP headline linger.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production and Trade, Germany, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, but ancient, news.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production and Trade, Germany, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: A bit better in German manufacturing; the setback in exports was expected.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not terrible, but outlook for Q2 as a whole is grim.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible, but not worth dwelling on.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Unemployment, Chile, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim, due to Covid-19, but a modest recovery likely will emerge in Q3.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production and Trade, Germany, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: The perfect storm; weak manufacturing and a crash in construction.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production and Trade, France, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Horrible manufacturing data, but an upward revision to Q4 net trade looms.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible, but this is possibly the bottom.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, Germany and France (Publication Centre)

In one line: More solid pre-Covid 19 data in Germany; French trade growth is still slowing.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Unemployment, Chile, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Weak, but the full hit will come in April.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Unemployment, Chile, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Struggling, but the second half of the year will be better.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production and Trade, France, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Robust, but base effects are challenging for manufacturing in Q2.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production and Trade, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft; blame Ireland and the Netherlands.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not bad, but Q3 as a whole likely was soft.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible; Q4 GDP growth set for downward revision later this week.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Decent, but Q3 as a whole doesn't look good.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: A poor start to the fourth quarter, due to broad-based weakness.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, and the outlook for Q2 isn't great.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: A weak headline, but the details are not as grim.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Decent, but we think production slipped in December.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Outstanding.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stung by weakness in output of electronics and pharmaceuticals.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible; now we wait for the rebound.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, March 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim, but the numbers are already factored-in by the advance GDP data.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Before Covid-19 everything looked o.k.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Great, but probably not enough to salvage the Q2 number.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: The next few months will be better, but Q4 as a whole looks grim.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing remains resilient, but downside risks looms.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: We'll take any increase here, but the trend still looks grim.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, France, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Manufacturing output has stalled; trade data point to downward Q3 GDP revision.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another poor performance is underway in Q3.

18 May 2020 V-Shaped Recovery Over in China's Factories, Consumers Still Lagging (Publication Centre)

China's two-tier post-lockdown economic revival continued in April. Industrial production beat expectations easily, rising by 3.9% year-over-year, after slipping by 1.1% in March.

18 March 2019 Mexico's Manufacturing is Offsetting the Oil Drag, Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Hard data on Mexico's industrial sector for the last couple of months have highlighted major divergences across sectors.

11 Jan. 2016 Did German GDP Growth Slow Significantly in Q4? (Publication Centre)

Industrial production and trade data on Friday ended last week on a downbeat note, amid otherwise solid economic reports. In Germany, industrial output fell 0.3% month-to-month in November, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 0.1% from a revised 0.4% in October. The details, however, were better than the headline. Production was hit by a 3.3% plunge in capital goods output, offsetting gains in all other key sectors, and net revisions added 0.3% to the October data.

18 January 2019 Manufacturing Output Likely Jumped in December Don't be Deceived (Publication Centre)

The monthly industrial production numbers are collected and released by the Fed, rather than the BEA, so today's December report will not be delayed by the government shutdown.

11 Feb. 2015 Will private investments in France ever pick up? (Publication Centre)

The French industrial sector ended last year on an upbeat note, but the underlying trend in activity is still weak. Industrial production rose 1.5% month-to-month in December, equivalent to a 0.1% fall year-over-year.

19 Feb 2020 India's Slowdown is Over, GDP Growth Likely Rebounded in Q4 (Publication Centre)

India's industrial production data last week are the last set of key economic indicators for the fourth quarter, before next week's Q4 GDP report.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Punchy output gains from China's manufacturers will soon give way. A mixed bag for China's non-manufacturing sectors at the start of Q3. Don't be fooled by the June slip in Japan's unemployment rate. Expect only a mild recovery in Japanese industrial production, for now. Korean production ended Q2 on a strong note.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMI was poised for major disappointment... the trade war impact is clear. Don't be fooled by the relative stability of China's non-manufacturing PMI. Japan's March unemployment uptick was early; April was payback. Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's industrial production ticks up after extreme weakness; don't hold your breath for the recovery. Japan's consumers in poor shape, but maybe it's not that bad. The upswing in Korean industrial production likely to take a breather this month. The BoK holds firm, despite rising calls for a rate cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

BoJ remains in an alternate reality in order to avoid a rate cut, underlining its concerns over damage to the financial sector. Chances of a serious PBoC blunder are rising. No "Phase 1" sentiment lift for Chinese manufacturers. A sharp fall in China's official services gauge was due. This probably is as good as it'll get for Japanese industrial production. Korean industrial production remains volatile, but the trend is decisively up.

11 Dec. 2014 French Economy Stumbles, as Market Looks Towards 2nd TLTRO (Publication Centre)

An upbeat third quarter for GDP growth in France and slightly better sentiment data have offered at least some hope that the economy could stage a comeback into year-end. But yesterday's disappointing industrial production data poured cold water on that idea.

17 October 2017 Manufacturing Sector set for Modest Post-Hurricane Rebound? (Publication Centre)

The first October survey evidence from the industrial economy, in the form of the Empire State report, is remarkably strong.

17 Oct 2019 September IP Hit by the GM Strike, but the Trend is Soft too (Publication Centre)

The GM strike will make itself felt in the September industrial production data, due today.

16 May 2019 Chinese Activity Comes Back Down to Earth--and Then Some--in April (Publication Centre)

Official industrial production growth in China plunged to 5.4% year-over-year in April, from 8.5% in March.

11 Mar. 2015 Eurozone GDP growth on track for strong Q1 (Publication Centre)

The latest evidence of firming economic momentum comes from France, where industrial production rose 0.4% month-to-month in January, equivalent to a 0.6% increase year-over-year. Combined with strong consumer spending data in January, this points to a solid first quarter for the French economy.

11 May. 2015 Net Trade Signals Slight Downside Risk for German Q1 GDP (Publication Centre)

March data for retail sales and manufacturing have tempered our optimism for the advance Q1 GDP estimate in Germany next week. Industrial production fell 0.5% month-to-month in March, equivalent to a mere 0.1% increase year-over-year, mainly as a result of weakness in core manufacturing activities.

16 June 2020 Sales, Production Up in May, but a Very Long Way to Go (Publication Centre)

The two marquee economic reports today, covering May retail sales and industrial production, will capture the initial rebound after the economy hit bottom sometime in mid-April.

11 June. 2015 Fall in Energy Output Will Weigh on French GDP growth in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Swings in energy output continue to add volatility to French manufacturing data. Industrial production fell 0.9% month-to-month in April, equivalent to a 0.1% fall year-over-year. This was a weak report, even if we factor in the 0.3% upward revision to the March numbers,but it was also he avily tainted by a 10.8% month-to-month collapse in oil refining.

16 November 2018 Don't Count on Chinese Industry Turning the Corner, Just Yet (Publication Centre)

Industrial production growth in China appears to be stabilising, following the slowdown in Q2.

17 March 2017 February's Manufacturing Data Flattered by Warm Weather? (Publication Centre)

The latest survey evidence strongly supports our view that momentum is building in the industrial economy, but the official production data continue to lag. Yesterday's March Philly Fed survey was remarkably strong, with the correction in the headline sentiment index -- inevitable, after February's 33-year high -- masking increases in all the subindexes.

17 Dec 2019 Behind the Rebound in November IP, the Underlying Trend is Flat (Publication Centre)

The November industrial production numbers will be dominated by the rebound in auto production following the end of the GM strike.

16 November. 2016 Look Behind Falling Utility Output to See the Manufacturing Gain (Publication Centre)

Falling demand for utility energy, thanks to yet another very warm month, relative to normal, will depress the headline industrial production number for October, due today. We look for a 21⁄2% drop in utility energy production, enough to subtract a quarter point from total industrial output.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's PMIs are not yet fully picking up the coronavirus; China's non-manufacturing PMI lifted by local government spending; not yet hit by the virus; Japan's job postings still suggest the unemployment rate is unsustainably low; Japan's national inflation has less far to fall than Tokyo's; The coronavirus will delay the return of Japanese retail sales to pre-tax hike levels; Investment goods drive Japan's IP rebound in December; no real support now for consumer goods production; December probably is as good as it will get for Korean industrial production, for now

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs suggest the private sector is recovering ahead of SoEs. China's non-manufacturing PMI again masks construction/services cross currents. Japan's industrial production continues to languish. OK so now Japanese households are front-loading spending. Korean IP corrects from the bumper July; the momentum from the Q2 recovery is waning.

9 March 2018 January's Production Rebound will Conceal a Manufacturing Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The industrial sector went from strength to strength in 2017. Year-over-year growth in production picked up to 2.1%--its highest rate since 2010--from 1.3% in 2016.

10 October 2017 German Manufacturing Continued to Boost the Economy in Q3 (Publication Centre)

German manufacturing snapped back at the end of summer. Industrial production jumped 2.6% month-to-month in August, pushing the year-over- year rate up to 4.7% from a revised 4.2% in July.

9 Nov. 2015 Investors Should Brace for a Poor German Q3 GDP Report (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production data capped another dreadful week for German manufacturing. Output fell 1.1% month-to-month in September, pushing the year-over-year rate lower to 0.2%, from a revised 2.9% in August. The 0.6% upward revision of the previous month's data makes the data slightly less awful than the headline, but the details showed weakness across all core sectors. The underlying trend in production is stable at about 1.2% year-over-year, but downbeat new orders suggest it will weaken in the fourth quarter.

9 October 2018 German Manufacturing Slowed Sharply in Q3, Denting Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production data in Germany were better than we feared. Output slipped 0.3% month-to-month in August, depressing the year- over-rate to -0.4% from 1.6% in July, a minor fall given evidence of a big hit from weakness in the auto sector ahead of the EU emissions tests.

9 June 2017 Bank C&I Lending has Levelled-off, Expect a Second-Half Rebound (Publication Centre)

The rollover in bank lending to commercial and industrial companies probably is over. On the face of it, the slowdown has been alarming, with year-over-year growth in the stock of lending slowing to just 2.6% in April, from a sustained peak of more than 10% in the early part of last year.

9 July 2019 The German Economy Hit a Brick Wall in the Second Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's headline economic data in Germany were decent enough. Industrial output edged higher by 0.3% month-to-month in May, lifted primarily by rising production of capital and consumer goods.

9 February 2017 Weak December Production to Raise Spectre of GDP Revision (Publication Centre)

Figures due on Friday likely will show that the increase in industrial production in December was much smaller than the 0.6% month-to-month assumed by the ONS in its preliminar y Q4 GDP estimate. We expect a 0.2% rise, which would leave production down 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, rather than up 0.1% as the ONS initially estimated.

2 Apr. 2015 Soft signals from Brazil's leading indicators - Further woes ahead (Publication Centre)

It is very difficult to be positive about the Brazilian economy in the short term, with every indicator of confidence at historic lows. The industrial business confidence index fell 9.2% month-to-month in March alone. Capacity use dropped to 79.7% from 81.5% in February, the lowest level in six years, and inventories rose, presumably because businesses over-estimated the strength of sales.

10 November 2017 Data to Confirm Production Picked Up but Net Trade Hit Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

September's industrial production figures likely will not surprise markets today. We look for a 0.3% month-to-month rise in production, matching the consensus and the ONS assumption in the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 14 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Mr. Trump's partial U-turn on September tariffs shows some semblance of an understanding of reality...that's a good thing. China's industrial production crushes June hopes of a swift recovery. Chinese consumers struggle. Chinese FAI: the infrastructure industry growth slowdown is especially worrying. Japan's strong core machine orders rebound in June probably faded in recent weeks. Korea's jobless rate will soon creep back up after remaining steady in July.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Our caution over China's March industrial production spike was justified. Chinese retail sales growth hits lows. Chinese FAI growth suggests private sector policy loosening isn't working. Japan's M2 growth upturn is a welcome break, but needs to be sustained. Korean unemployment jumps in April, showing the limits of the government's hiring spree.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 28 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japanese labour data show early signs of virus hit. Japan's industrial production in a slow recovery... pre-virus. Japan's retail sales still trying to make up lost ground after the tax hike. Tokyo prices already showing signs of virus hit? Korean industrial production wobbles before virus hit.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 29 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's firms are done hiring. Tokyo inflation points to uptick in national gauge, driven by non-core effects. Japan's start to Q4 goes from bad to worse, as industrial production tanks in October. Still far too soon to call time on Korea's IP recovery, despite the October setback. Governor Lee attempts to manage 2020 expectations, as the BoK stands pat after the October cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMI highlights supply-demand mismatch. China's non-manufacturing PMI reveals struggling services and rebounding construction. Retail sales in Japan started to turn sour before the state of emergency, but the overall picture for Q1 isn't bad. The worst is yet to come for Japanese industrial production.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

BoJ snubs the doves. Japan's unemployment rate downtick was minimal. The weak external backdrop dominates Japan's pre-tax front-loading industrial activity.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 27 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

Tokyo inflation had further to fall in September than the national gauge. Some positive stories in Chinese industrial profits despite the gloomy headline.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 18 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

Chinese quarterly GDP growth was dire. China's industrial production was due an upward correction. China's retail sales data suggest that households took a Q3 battering. China's FAI growth shows no signs of turning. Japan's CPI avoids deflation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Judgement pending on Chinese industrial production. Chinese retail sales buoyed by inflation. Chinese FAI growth stable through Q4; local government spending better managed this year. China's housing market still not reached a bottom. Japan's tertiary index plunge is more tax hike than typhoon. Japan's PMIs underline damage from tax hike.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's industrial production growth downtrend worsens. China's retail sales dragged down by autos but boosted as people spend more at home. China's fixed asset investment growth slows despite greater support from infrastructure.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 17 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

Steady Q4 GDP growth in China masks respectable q/q rebound. Signs of recovery in China's industrial complex, but for how long? China's households continue to struggle. China's FAI growth shows rebuilding confidence around the Phase One deal. Japan's November tertiary index suggests October plunge was more tax than typhoon. January sees the first of many BoK "holds" this year.

11 Nov. 2015 Strong Finish to Q3 for French Manufacturing to Boost GDP? (Publication Centre)

French industrial production data surprised to the upside yesterday. Output rose 0.1% month-to-month in September, a solid gain following an upwardly-revised 1.7% rise in August, and also higher than the consensus, forecast for a 0.4% fall. The details, however, were less upbeat than the headline. Transport equipment fell, as expected, following production being pushed forward ahead of the Summer holidays. But this story was overshadowed by a 22.5% month-to-month jump in oil refining-- included in manufacturing--as refineries resumed full production following maintenance over the summer.

16 Jan 2020 Early Evidence Points to a further Dip in EZ GDP Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Judging by the solid advance data in the major economies, yesterday's EZ industrial production report should have hit desks with a bang, but it was a whimper in the end.

12 March 2019 We Need to Talk a Bit about Revisions to German Construction (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production numbers in Germany were similar to Friday's confusing new orders data.

14 Apr. 2016 The Eurozone's Manufacturing Outperformance Likely Won't Last (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in the euro area dipped in February. Output fell 0.8% month-to-month pushing the year-over-year rate down to 0.8% from a revised 2.9% in January. This indicates that Eurozone manufacturing continues to lag the pace seen in previous business cycle upturns.

14 Apr. 2015 The Eurozone is on track for strongest growth since Q1 2011 (Publication Centre)

Eurozone industrial production data today will confirm that economic growth likely accelerated in the first quarter. We think output rose 0.7% month-to-month in February, equivalent to a 0.8% increase year-over-year.

13 October 2017 Eurozone GDP Growth Likely Slowed in Q3, but Only Sligh tly (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing sector likely was the primary driver of Q3 GDP growth in the Eurozone. Data yesterday showed that industrial production rose 1.4% month-to-month in August, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 3.8%, from a revised 3.6% in July.

14 February 2017 Global Manufacturing Picks Up Pace, Are Good News for LatAm? (Publication Centre)

More evidence indicating that the recovery in global industrial activity is underway and gaining momentum- has poured in. In particular, trade data from China, one of LatAm's biggest trading partners, was stronger than the market expected last month. Both commodity import and export volumes increased sharply in January, and this suggests better economic conditions for China's key trading partners.

14 February 2018 Look for a Disappointing Q4 German GDP Report Today (Publication Centre)

Today's Eurozone data will provide further details on what happened in Q4. Advance data suggest that industrial production rose a modest 0.1% month- to-month, lifting the year-over-year rate to 4.3% in December, from 3.9% in November.

14 Jan. 2016 A Downbeat Outlook for Q4 GDP Data in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

EZ survey data were solid in the fourth quarter, pointing to robust GDP growth, but numbers from the real economy have so far not lived up to the rosy expectations. Data yesterday showed that industrial production fell 0.7% month-to-month in November, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 1.1% from a revised 2.0% in October. Italian data today likely will force marginal revisions to the headline next month, but they are unlikely to change the big picture.

14 Jan 2020 Early Signs of an IP Recovery in India Build the Case for the RBI's Pause (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in India turned around sharply in November, rising by 1.8% year-over-year, following October's 4.0% plunge and beating the consensus forecast for a trivial 0.3% uptick.

12 March 2018 Weak Production Data Signal Soft January in Germany and France (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production headlines in the Eurozone were weak, but the details tell a more nuanced story.

13 Nov. 2015 Soft Q3 GDP Data to Pave the Way for More Monetary Easing (Publication Centre)

Industrial production data yesterday confirmed downside risks to today's GDP data in the Eurozone. Output fell 0.3% month-to-month in September, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 1.7% from a revised 2.2% in August. Weakness in Germany was the main culprit, amid stronger data in the other major economies. A GDP estimate based on available data for industrial production and retail sales point to a quarterly growth rate of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, but we think growth was rather lower, just 0.2%, due to a drag from net trade.

13 May. 2016 EZ Manufacturing Jumped in Q1, but Likely Will Nosedive in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Activity in the Eurozone industrial sector cooled at the end of the first quarter. Manufacturing production declined 0.8% month-to-month in March, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 0.2% from a revised 1.0% in February. Over Q1 as a whole, though, the story was positive.

13 Jan 2020 Your Monthly Reminder that the French Economy is Doing Fine (Publication Centre)

The French manufacturing data delivered another upside surprise last week, following the solid numbers in Germany; see here. French industrial production rose slightly in November, by 0.3% month-to-month, extending the gains from an upwardly-revised 0.5% rise in October.

13 February 2017 Can French Investment Maintain Momentum in 2017? (Publication Centre)

French manufacturing cooled at the end of 2016. Industrial production slipped 0.9% month-to-month in December, partially reversing an upwardly revised 2.4% jump in November. The main hits came from declines in oil refining and manufacturing of cars and other transport equipment.

13 February 2017 Too Soon to Conclude the Economy is Finally Rebalancing (Publication Centre)

Data on industrial production and trade released last week have fanned hopes that the U.K.'s growth model is moving away from its excessive reliance on household spending, and towards production and exports. But a close look at the underlying drivers of the strong headline figures suggests that it is too soon to hope that the economy is undergoing a major rebalancing.

13 December 2017 Mexico's Manufacturing Starts Q4 Badly, but it Will Gradually Improve (Publication Centre)

Mexican industrial activity started the fourth quarter badly. Industrial production fell 0.1% month- to-month in October, pushing the year-over-year rate slightly up to -1.1% from -1.2% in September and -0.7% in Q3.

12 September 2017 Stronger Mexican Manufacturing Overshadowed by Weak Mining (Publication Centre)

Industrial activity in Mexico had a very poor start to the third quarter. Output plunged 1.0% month-to- month in July, the biggest drop since May 2015, pushing the year-over-year rate down to -1.5%, from -0.2% in June.

13 July 2017 The Eurozone Economy Maintained Momentum in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data showed that industrial production in the Eurozone accelerated at the end of spring. Output, ex-construction, jumped 1.3% month-to-month in May, much better than the downwardly-revised 0.3% rise in April; the rise pushed the year-over-year rate up to a six-year high of 4.0%.

13 June 2018 Mexico's Manufacturing Activity in April was Weak, but it Will Improve (Publication Centre)

Mexico's industrial recovery, which began in late Q4, lost momentum at the start of the second quarter.

13 June 2017 Solid Mexican Manufacturing Eclipsed By Other Key Sectors (Publication Centre)

Activity in the Mexican industrial sector cooled marginally at the start of the second quarter, but the drop was not as dramatic as the headlines suggested. Output fell 4.4% year-over-year in April, after a 3.4% increase in March.

13 July 2020 The French Economy is Healing, but the Easy Gains are Over (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data in the Eurozone provided further evidence of a sharp rebound in manufacturing output as the economy reopened. Industrial production in France jumped by 19.6% month-to-month in May, lifting the year-over-year rate to -23.4% from -35.0% in April.

14 July. 2016 EZ GDP Growth all but Stalled in Q2, as Domestic Demand Slowed (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday showed that industrial production in the Eurozone stumbled in May. Production fell 1.2% month-to-month, driven by weakness in all major economies and falling output in all sub-industries. The poor headline follows an upwardly revised 1.4% jump in April, which means that production rose marginally in the first two months of the second quarter.

12 Mar. 2015 Weak Euro to help manufacturers, but EM weakness is still a worry (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in the Eurozone was probably unchanged in January equivalent to a 0.2% fall year-over-year. This is slightly below the consensus for a 0.2% rise month-to-month, mainly due to the downside surprises in m/m data in Italy and Germany released previously.

15 Oct. 2015 Investment Likely Rebounded in Q3, but No Change in Weak Trend (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production report was poor, but the headline was better than we, and the market, feared. Output fell 0.5% month-to-month in August, but the July data were revised up 0.2%, pushing the year over-year rate--using the seasonally- and working day-adjusted index--higher to 1.9% from 1.4% in July. Bloomberg reported the year-over-year rate fell to 0.9% from 1.7% in July, but they used an index which is only working day-adjusted.

15 November. 2016 EZ GDP Growth Likely was Stable in Q3, in Line With First Estimate (Publication Centre)

Investors face a busy EZ calendar today, but the second estimate of Q3 GDP, and the advance GDP data in Germany, likely will receive most attention. Yesterday's industrial production report in the Eurozone was soft, but it won't force a downward GDP revision, as we had feared.

15 May 2018 Mexico's Manufacturing Ended Q1 Strongly, Will the Trend Continue? (Publication Centre)

Mexican industrial production is slowly improving, and further good numbers are likely in coming months.

15 May 2017 Mexican Manufacturing set to Remain Resilient in Q2 and Q3 (Publication Centre)

Recent industrial data for Mexico point to renewed upside risks for GDP growth, despite the likely headwind to consumption from high inflation and depressed confidence.

15 Sept. 2015 Subdued EZ Manufacturing is in Line with the Rest of the OECD (Publication Centre)

Industrial production data yesterday indicate manufacturers in the Eurozone enjoyed a decent start to Q3, thanks to strength in Germany, Italy and Spain, which offset weakness in France. Production ex-construction rose 0.6% month-to-month in July, boosted in part by a 3% jump in energy output. If production is unchanged in August and September, output will rise 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, but this estimate is uncertain, and we look for an increase of about 0.4%-to-0.5%.

12 April 2018 Q1 Slowdown Leaves a May Rate Hike Hanging in the Balance (Publication Centre)

February's industrial production and construction output data leave us little choice but to revise down our forecast for quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q1 to 0.2%, from 0.3% previously.

11 October 2018 Italy's Government is Picking a Fight with Both Markets and the EU (Publication Centre)

Base effects were the key driver of yesterday's upbeat industrial production headline in Italy.

12 April 2017 Don't Worry About the Weakness in C&I Lending, it will Rebound (Publication Centre)

Friday's weekly report on the assets and liabilities of U.S. commercial banks will complete the picture or March and, hence, the first quarter. It won't be pretty. With most of the March data already released, a month-to-month decline in lending to commercial and industrial companies of about 0.7% is a done deal. That would be the biggest drop since May 2010, and it would complete a 1% annualized fall for the first quarter, the worst performance since Q3 2010. The year-over-year rate of growth slowed to just 5.0% in Q1, from 8.0% in the fourth quarter and 10.3% in the first quarter of last year.

12 April 2018 A Much-Needed Reality Check on the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

Today's industrial production data in the Eurozone will extend the run of soft headlines at the start of the year.

15 March 2019 Will Brazil's Supply and Demand Divergence Continue this Year (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector keeps losing momentum, despite interest rates at record lows and improving confidence.

15 March 2018 Old-Guard Industry gets a Q1 Reprieve, but it's Temporary (Publication Centre)

Industrial production bounced back in February. These data point to a reprieve for old-guard dirty industry, after stringent anti-pollution curbs were put in place in Q4.

12 Jan. 2016 Drop in November Production to Set the Tone for Q4 GDP (Publication Centre)

November's industrial production figures, released today, look set to surprise the consensus to the downside, underscoring our view that the economic recovery is continuing to lose momentum. Moreover, with sterling remaining uncompetitive, despite depreciating over recent weeks, and lower oil prices making extracting oil from the North Sea unprofitable, the industrial sector likely will impede the economic recovery further in 2016.

14 October. 2016 Mexican Manufacturing is Recovering, But Oil Still a Big Drag (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's Mexican industrial production report was upbeat for manufacturing, but it revealed that the oil and public construction sectors remain under severe strain.

12 June 2019 Mexico's Manufacturing Remains Resilient USMCA Deal Awaits (Publication Centre)

Mexico's industrial production report released yesterday brought encouraging news about the state of the economy, helping relieve some doubts about its health.

14 November 2017 Poor EZ Production Data Won't Dent Second Q3 GDP Estimate (Publication Centre)

Soft September data in Germany and Italy suggest that today's industrial production report in the Eurozone will be poor. Our first chart shows that data from the major EZ economies point to a 0.8% month-to- month fall in September.

15 January 2019 What can we Learn from the Weak EZ Manufacturing Data (Publication Centre)

Last week's horrible manufacturing data in the major EZ economies had already warned investors that yesterday's industrial production report for the zone as a whole would be one to forget.

15 July. 2015 Q2 GDP Tracking Models are Too Pessimistic, Focus on Net Trade (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production report was grim reading, with volatility in Greece and the Netherlands, as well as revisions, throwing off our own, and the market's, forecasts. Output fell 0.4% month-to-month in May, well below the consensus and our expectation for a 0.2% rise, pushing the year-over-year rate higher to 1.6%, from a revised 0.9% in April.

15 March 2017 Mexican Manufacturing will do Fine in Q1, Despite Threats (Publication Centre)

The collapse in capital spending in the oil sector and poor construction spending have constrained aggregate Mexican industrial output in recent months, despite the strength of the manufacturing sector. Total production fell 0.1% year-over-year in January, though note this was a clear improvement after the 0.6% drop in December, and better than the average 0.4% contraction over the second half of 2016.

15 June 2017 China's Q2 Growth to Remain Sturdy but Expect a Slower H2 (Publication Centre)

China's industrial production grew at an annualised 7.2% rate by volume in Q1, according to our estimates, up from an average 5.9% rate in the six quar ters through mid-2016.

12 Jan. 2015 Recent Data Point to Downside Risks for the Brazilian Economy (Publication Centre)

Economic growth in Brazil is not likely to improve significantly this year. Our pessimism was underscored by the November industrial production data last week, showing a contraction of 0.7%, and pushing output to its lowest level since June.

9 Feb. 2015 The German economy is improving: Q4 GDP will beat consensus (Publication Centre)

German industrial production data were presented by Bloomberg News as signs that the recovery is "gathering momentum", but it is slightly premature to make that call. Narrow money growth is currently sending a strong signal of higher GDP growth this year in the euro area, but the message from the manufacturing sector is still one of stabilisation rather than acceleration.

9 May 2019 A Solid Q1 in the Bag for Germany Now a Q2 Correction Looms (Publication Centre)

Industrial production data in Germany continued to defy the signal of doom and gloom from leading indicators.

10 Feb. 2016 Downside Production Surprise to Take its Toll on Sterling (Publication Centre)

December's industrial production figures, released today, look set to surprise the consensus to the downside, pushing down the pound and increasing the chances that the preliminary estimate of a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter increase in fourth quarter GDP will be revised down.

10 Feb. 2016 No Relief for German Q4 GDP Forecasts in Yesterday's Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German manufacturing and trade data did little to allay our fears over downside risks to this week's Q4 GDP data. At -1.2% month-to-month in December, industrial production was much weaker than the consensus forecast of a 0.5% increase. Exports also surprised to the downside, falling 1.6% month-to-month. Our GDP model, updated with these data, shows GDP growth fell 0.2%-to-0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, reversing the 0.3% increase in Q3.

5 Oct. 2015 Less Bad Than Expected Data in Brazil, But the Crisis is Not Over (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic and fiscal outlook has worsened in recent months, and economic activity will likely contract even further in the short-term. Some of last week's economic reports, however, were a bit less bad than of late. The latest industrial production data were less bad than expected in August, but the picture is still very grim. Industrial output plunged 1.2% month-to-month, above the consensus, and allowing the annual rate to stabilize at -9% year-over-year.

10 Feb 2020 The Noose Tightens on Eurozone Optimists, Will the ECB Cut Rates? (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production data in the core EZ economies, for December, were startlingly poor. In Germany, industrial production plunged by 3.5% month-to-month, comfortably reversing the revised 1.2% rise in November.

5 Feb 2020 A Poor Finish to 2019 for Brazil's Industry, COPOM to Cut Rates (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December industrial production report, released yesterday, confirmed that the recovery was stuttering at the end of last year.

5 April 2017 The Brazilian Economy is Improving: Expect a Modest Q1 GDP Recovery (Publication Centre)

Brazilian February industrial production data, released yesterday, were relatively positive. Output rose 0.1% month-to-month, pushing the yearover- year rate down to -0.8% from 1.4% in January. Statistical quirks were behind February's year-over-year fall, though.

10 Dec. 2014 German Exports are Holding Up, But Greek Election Risks Loom (Publication Centre)

The German manufacturing sector is showing signs of stabilisation with industrial production rising 0.2% month-on-month in October, equivalent to 0.8% year-over- year. This is consistent with a decent retracement in production this quarter, but growth is still only barely above zero.

29 January 2019 Is it a Good Idea for Markets to Ignore Poor Macro Data in the EZ (Publication Centre)

In the last few weeks markets have been treated to the news that euro area industrial production crashed towards the end of Q4, warning that GDP growth failed to rebound at the end of 2018 from an already weak Q3.

5 October 2018 Should Surveys Pointing to Higher Core Goods Inflation be Trusted? (Publication Centre)

The CPI inflation rate for non-energy industrial goods--core goods, for short--has tracked past movements in trade-weighted sterling closely over the last ten years, because virtually all goods in this sector are imported.

3 October 2018 Chuseok Hit Clouds the End of Marginally Stronger Q3 in Korea (Publication Centre)

Korean industrial production surprised to the upside in August, according to data released yesterday.

6 Dec 2019 Brazil's Recovery Continues, in Stark Contrast to Chile's-Temporary-Woes (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector is on the mend, but some of the key sub-sectors are struggling.

28 November 2017 Chinese Profits Headline Overstates Growth. Private Firms Struggling (Publication Centre)

Chinese industrial profits growth officially edged down to 25.1% year-over-year in October, from 27.7% in September. This is still very rapid but we think the official data are overstating the true rate of growth.

23 February 2017 Q4 GDP Flatters to Deceive, a Consumer-led Slowdown is Coming (Publication Centre)

Taken at face value, the GDP data continue to suggest that the Brexit vote has had no adverse consequences for the economy. The official estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q4 was revised up yesterday to 0.7%, from 0.6%. The revision had been flagged earlier this month by stronger industrial production and construction output figures.

5 September 2018 Manufacturing in Brazil and Mexico is Stabilizing, but Threats Remain (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Brazilian industrial production data were relatively upbeat.

2 Sept. 2015 Chile's Economic Recovery Stutters, Risks To Growth Increase (Publication Centre)

Chile's activity numbers at the beginning of Q3 were mediocre, suggesting that the economy remains sluggish. The industrial production index--comprising mining, manufacturing, and utility output--fell by 1.7% year-over-year in July, reversing a 1.6% expansion in June. A disappointing 4.5% year-over-year contraction in mining activity depressed the July headline index, following a 1.4% increase in June. The moderation in output growth was due to maintenance-related shutdowns at key processing plants, and disruptions from labor strikes, especially a three-week strike by contract workers at Codelco--the state-owned mining firm--which badly hit production.

4 Sept 2019 Manufacturing in Brazil Struggles, Supporting the Case for Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Brazilian industrial production data were downbeat.

3 Feb 2020 Chile to Perform Relatively Well this Year, the Protest Shock will Ease (Publication Centre)

Chile's stronger-than-expected industrial production report for December, and less-ugly-than- feared retail sales numbers, confirmed that the hit from the Q4 social unrest on economic activity is disappearing.

08 May. 2015 Brazil's Weak Growth Not Sufficient to Stop the Tightening Process (Publication Centre)

This week's hard data confirmed the bleak situation of Brazil's industrial sector, signalled over the last few months by key leading indicators such as the PMI manufacturing and the CNI business confidence surveys. March industrial production fell by 0.8% month-to-month and 3.5% year-over-year, following a downwardly-revised 9.4% contraction in February.

30 May 2018 ADP Likely to Report Solid Gain in May Payrolls (Publication Centre)

The models which generate the ADP measure of private payrolls will benefit in May from the strength of the headline industrial production, business sales and jobless claims numbers.

30 October 2017 Is China's Profits Surge Driving up Developers' Short-term Borrowing? (Publication Centre)

Chinese industrial profits continue to surge, rising 27.7% year-over-year in September, up from 24.0% in August.

3 November 2017 Brazilian Manufacturing Continued to Support the Recovery in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector continued to support the economy in Q3. The underlying tr end in output is rising and leading indicators point to further growth in the near term.

3 Sept 2019 Still Mostly Bad News in the Eurozone Manufacturing Sector (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final EZ manufacturing PMIs for August provided little in the way of relief for the beleaguered industrial sector.

3 October 2018 Mixed Activity Data in Brazil Ahead of a Contested Presidential Election (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial production surprised to the downside in August, suggesting that manufacturing is struggling to gather momentum over the second half of the year.

09 Feb. 2016 Investors Should Brace for Poor German GDP Data this Week (Publication Centre)

German Q4 GDP data this week will give little comfort to investors searching for signs of a resilient economy in the face of increased market volatility. The consensus expects unchanged GDP growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, consistent with solid and stable survey data. But downbeat industrial production and retail sales data point to notable downside risk.

07 Mar. 2016 Brazil's Economy Collapsed in 2015 - No Sign of Quick Recovery (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic news remained grim at the headline level last week, but some of the details were less bad than in recent months. Industrial production fell by 13.8% year-over-year in January, down from the 12.1% drop in December and the worst performance on this basis since mid-2009.

30 Sept 2019 Ignore the Headline the Upturn in Private Profits in China is Reassuring (Publication Centre)

China's industrial profits data for August were a mixed bag.

1 May 2020 China's Benign Manufacturing PMI Masks Worrying Underlying Trends (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.8 in April, from 52.0 in March. The output sub- index stayed relatively high, inching down only to 53.7 from 54.1, and chiming with our initial take on the industrial production data for March.

1 Oct 2019 ISM Manufacturing Likely Rose a bit in September, but it Remains Weak (Publication Centre)

The obsession of markets and the media with the industrial sector means that today's ISM manufacturing survey will be scrutinized far more closely than is justified by its real importance.

22 June 2018 Survey Data Suggest that French Manufacturing will Rebound in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of French business sentiment data suggest that confidence in the industrial sector was a little stronger than expected in Q2.

1 July 2019 Fresh Evidence of Pre-Tax Front- Loading in Japan... All for Naught? (Publication Centre)

Japan's industrial production data for May carried more evidence that the economy is getting a lift--at least temporarily--from the front-loading of activity ahead of the scheduled sales tax increase in October.

3 Mar 2020 Covid-19 is Both a Supply and Demand Shock to the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs confirmed that all remained calm in the EZ industrial sector through February.

4 Dec. 2015 Brazil's Economic Mess Worsens Amid Deepening Political Crises (Publication Centre)

Industrial production data yesterday confirmed downside risks to Q4's GDP data in Brazil. Output fell 0.7% month-to-month in October, the fifth consecutive decline, pushing the year-over-year rate down to -11.2%, from -10.9% in September. This was the biggest drop since April 2009, when output collapsed by 14.2% during the global financial crisis. The October details were even worse than the headline, as all three broad-measures fell sharply.

10 January 2017 Production Likely Surged in November, but Trend Remains Weak (Publication Centre)

The consensus expectation that industrial production rose by 1.0% month-to-month in November is far too low; we expect Wednesday's data to show a jump of 2.0% or so. The rebound, however, should not be interpreted as another sign that the economy has been revitalised by the Brexit vote. Instead, we expect the rise chiefly to reflect volatility in oil production and heating energy supply.

10 Jan 2020 The Outlook for German Q4 GDP is Poor, but also Murkier than Usual (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production report in Germany was much better than implied by the poor new orders data--see here--released earlier this week.

8 July. 2015 Evidence, so far, Points to Strong Q2 GDP Print in Germany (Publication Centre)

German GDP growth likely accelerated in the second quarter, following a disappointing 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q1. Growth in the manufacturing sector remains modest, and the trend in consumers' spending remains solid. Industrial production was unchanged in May, pushing year-over-year growth to 2.1% from a revised 1.1% in April.

10 July 2020 The End is in Sight for PPI Deflation in China, to the Relief of Factories (Publication Centre)

The downward pressure from factory-gate prices on Chinese industrial profits will continue to ease in the coming months.

8 June. April Production to Underline Poor Prospects for Q2 GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

April's production data, released today, look set to indicate that the industrial sector's recession--its third in the last eight years--deepened in the second quarter. We think the consensus expectation that industrial production held steady in April is too upbeat. We look for a 0.3% month-to-month drop.

10 July 2017 Robust Q2 GDP Growth in the Eurozone Likely are in the Bag (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production reports in the Eurozone were sizzling. In Germany, headline output rose 1.2% month-to-month in May--after a downwardly-revised 0.7% rise in April--which pushed the year-over-year rate up to a six-year high of 4.9%.

8 February 2018 Is the Acceleration in German Manufacturing Output Over? (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in Germany stumbled at the end of Q4. Data yesterday showed that output fell 0.6 month-to-month in December, though this drop has to be seen in light of the downwardly-revised 3.1% jump in November.

2 Oct. 2015 Economic Activity Remains Weak in Chile - But the BCCh Will Act (Publication Centre)

Chile's economic indicators for July were unreservedly weak, confirming that the economic recovery remains sluggish. The industrial production index--comprising mining, manufacturing, and utility output--fell by 5.2% year-over-year in August, after a 1.7% contraction in July. Mining production suffered a sharp 9.3% year-over-year contraction, due mainly to an 8.3% fall in copper production, as strikes and maintenance works badly hit the industry.

8 February 2017 German Manufacturing Data Threw a Tantrum in December (Publication Centre)

German manufacturing data are all over the place at the moment. Earlier this week, data showed that new orders jumped toward the end of 2016, but yesterday's industrial production report was a shocker. Output plunged 3.0% month-to-month in December, pushing the year-over-year rate down to -0.7% from a revised +2.3% in November.

25 July 2018 Threats Posed by Brexit and Trump Stymie Manufacturing Investment (Publication Centre)

The CBI's Industrial Trends Survey, for July and Q3, supplied encouraging evidence yesterday that the manufacturing upswing still has momentum.

8 May 2018 Brazil's Q1 Looks Poor - we Expect a Rebound Soon, but Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Brazil's March industrial production report, released on Thursday last week, was weaker than we and the markets were expecting, while the recent deterioration in sentiment surveys highlights the downside risks to the rather fragile economic recovery.

8 September 2017 Production Likely Jumped in July, but it Won't Drive a Q3 Revival (Publication Centre)

The consensus that industrial production increased by just 0.2% month-to-month in July looks too cautious.

9 April 2018 Hard Data Suggest that the German Economy Stalled in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production report in Germany capped a miserable week for economic data in the Eurozone's largest economy.

8 Sept. 2015 The German Manufacturing Sector is Still Stuck in Neutral (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in Germany had a decent start to the third quarter. Output rose 0.7% month-to-month in July, less than we and the consensus expected, but the 0.5% upward revision to the June data brings the net headline almost in line with forecasts. Rebounds of 2.8% and 3.2% month-to-month in the capital goods and construction sectors respectively were the key drivers of the gain, following similar falls in June. A 3.2% fall in consumer goods production, however, was a notable drag.

10 March 2017 Evidence of a Brazilian Business Cycle Recovery this Year is Building (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector had a relatively good start to the year. Data on Wednesday showed that production fell 0.1% month-to-month in January, less than markets expected, and the year-over-year rate rose to 1.4%, after a 0.1% drop in December.

24 April 2017 Take None of Last Week's Data at Face Value -- Distortions Abound (Publication Centre)

The gap between the hard and soft data from the industrial economy appeared to widen still further last week. But we are disinclined to take the data--the official industrial production report for March, and the first survey evidence for April--at face value.

8 November. 2016 Weather--not Brexit--is Culpable for Production and Retail Sales Swings (Publication Centre)

It would be a mistake to conclude much about the economic impact of the Brexit vote from today's official industrial production figures for September, and the British Retail Consortium's figures for retail sales in October.

23 Jan 2020 The CBI's Survey is Another Positive Sign for the PMI, at the Margin (Publication Centre)

Further evidence that the general election has transformed business confidence emerged yesterday, in the form of January's CBI Industrial Trends survey.

8 December 2017 Production Likely Was Neither Strong Nor Stable in October (Publication Centre)

The 0.7% month-to-month rise in industrial production in September marked the sixth consecutive increase, a feat last achieved 23 years ago.

2 June 2017 PMIs Signal a Strong Q2 for the EZ Manufacturing Sector (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final May manufacturing PMIs confirmed that the EZ industrial sector is in fine form. The PMI for the euro area was unchanged at a cyclical high of 57.0 in May, in line with the initial estimate.

2 July 2020 Don't Expect Manufacturing Output to Reach Pre-Covid Levels this Year (Publication Centre)

The recovery in the industrial sector from Covid-19 finally commenced in earnest in June, after May's stalled start.

6 October 2017 The Mining Recovery is Driving Chile's Rebound, Will it Last? (Publication Centre)

Chile's growth dynamics were robust in August, according to the latest data. Production rose and consumption remained strong during most of Q3. Indeed, industrial output increased 5.1% year-over- year, up from an already strong 3.1% increase in July, and contrasting sharply with the 2% fall in Q2.

6 Mar. 2015 The BCB Hikes Again But The Tightening Cycle is Not Quite Over (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian industrial sector started this year on a very downbeat note, despite a 2% month-to-month jump in output. The underlying trend in activity is still very weak. Production fell 5.2% year-over-year.

28 Nov 2019 The Case for Larger PBoC Cuts Grows as Chinese Profits Tank (Publication Centre)

China's abysmal industrial profits data for October underscore why the chances of less- timid monetary easing are rising rapidly.

2 Oct 2019 Hard Data Suggest the Recovery in Brazil and Chile is on Track (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial production rose 0.8% month- to-month in August, well above our call, and the consensus, for a trivial increase.

2 May 2017 Economic Activity in Mexico Remains Strong, but Will Slow (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recovery has been steady in recent months, and Q1 likely will mark the end of the recession. The gradual recovery of the industrial and agricultural sectors has been the highlight, thanks to improving external demand, the lagged effect of the more competitive BRL, and the more stable political situation, which has boosted sentiment.

8 August. 2016 Brazil's Economy is Stabilizing. Mexico's is Slowing, Temporarily (Publication Centre)

While we were out, Brazil's economic and political position continued to improve. The recession eased in the second quarter and into July. Industrial production, for example, increased in June for the fourth consecutive month, rising by 1.1% month-to-month.

2 February 2018 A Solid Finish to 2017 for Brazil, Pointing to Upside Risks (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December industrial production and labour reports, released this week, confirmed that the recovery remained solidly on track at the end of last year.

28 March 2019 China Profits will Bounce Back in March Proper Recovery is Coming (Publication Centre)

China's industrial profits tanked in January/ February, falling 14.0% year-to-date year-over-year, after a 1.9% drop year-over-year in December.

28 June 2017 Chinese Profits Growth to Decelerate, That's a Good Thing (Publication Centre)

Chinese industrial profits growth rose to 16.7% year-on-year in May, from 14.0% in April. But this headline is highly misleading. Profits growth data are about as cyclical as they come so taking one point in the year and looking back 12 months is very arbitrary. Moreover, the data are very volatile over short periods.

7 February 2017 Q1 Growth to Disappoint, Again? (Publication Centre)

The obvious answer to the question posed in our title is that it's far too early to tell what will happen to first quarter growth. More than half the quarter hasn't even happened yet, and data for January are still extremely patchy, with no official reports on retail sales, industrial production, housing, capex, inventories or international trade yet available. For what it's worth, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model signals growth of 3.4%, though we note that it substantially overstated the first estimate of growth in the fourth quarter.

7 Apr. 2016 Real Economic Data Point to an Upbeat German GDP Story in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German industrial production data were poor, but better than we expected. Output fell 0.5% month-to-month in February, pushing annual growth down to 1.3% from a revised 1.8% in January. In addition, net revisions to the month-to-month data were a hefty -1.0%, but this is not enough to change the story of a Q1 rebound in industrial production.

8 Apr. 2015 Slowly does it for upturn in the German manufacturing sector (Publication Centre)

German factory orders probably bounced a modest 0.3% month-to-month in February, equivalent to a 0.5% decline year-over-year. We expect private investment growth to have picked up in the first quarter, but leading indicators for the industrial sector in Germany are sending conflicting signals.

14 March 2019 EZ Industrial Production is on Track for a Small Increase in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ industrial production data for January confirmed the string of positive advance numbers from most of the individual economies.

FINANCIAL TIMES - German industrial production falls unexpectedly for July (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on German Industrial Production

13 December 2016 Mexico's Industrial Sector Started Q4 Slowly, 2017 will be Poor (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in Mexico remained under pressure at the start of Q4. Output rose just 0.1% month-to-month in October, leaving the year-over-year rate unchanged at -1.4%, down from an average of -0.8% in Q3.

FINANCIAL TIMES - Eurozone industrial output drops in month after UK's Brexit vote (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone Industrial Production

15 Jan. 2016 Downside Risk for December Retail Sales and Industrial Output (Publication Centre)

After a very light week for economic data so far, everything changes today, with an array of reports on both activity and inflation. We expect headline weakness across the board, with downside risks to consensus for the December retail sales and industrial production numbers, and the January Empire State survey and Michigan consumer sentiment. The damage will b e done by a combination of falling oil prices, very warm weather, relative to seasonal norms, and the stock market.

29 July 2020 The Good and Bad in the Recovery of Chinese Industrial Profits (Publication Centre)

Industrial profits in China continued to strengthen in June, rising by 11.5% year-over-year, marking an acceleration from 6.0% in the previous month.

BBC - UK industrial production shrank in 2015 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Industrial Production

16 July 2019 No End in Sight Yet to the Industrial Consumer Bifurcation (Publication Centre)

Today's brings the June retail sales and industrial production reports, after which we'll update our second quarter GDP forecast.

16 Dec. 2014 - Industrial rebound continues, despite the plunging Empire State (Publication Centre)

You'd have to be very brave to take the weakness of yesterday's Empire State survey more seriously than the strong official industrial report published 45 minutes later. The hard data showed industrial production up 1.3% month-to-month, and only two tenths of that gain was explained by the cold weather, which drove up utility energy output.

4 July. 2016 Industrial Output in Brazil has Hit Bottom, but No Quick Recovery (Publication Centre)

Friday's Brazilian industrial production data were relatively positive. Output was unchanged month-to-month in May, and April's marginal gain was revised slightly higher. The flat monthly reading pushed year-over-year growth in output up marginally to -8.9% from -9.1%. May production rose month-to-month in two of the four major categories.

5 July 2017 ISM Signals Continued Industrial Recovery, but not a Boom (Publication Centre)

The June ISM manufacturing index signalled clearly that the industrial recovery continues, with the headline number rising to its highest level since August 2014, propelled by rising orders and production. But the industrial economy is not booming and the upturn likely will lose a bit of momentum in the second half as the rebound in oil sector capex slows.

17 May 2019 The China-led Industrial Downturn is Ending, Trade War Permitting (Publication Centre)

Evidence in support of our view that the U.S. industrial slowdown is ending continues to mount, though nothing is yet definitive and the re-escalation of the trade war is a threat of uncertain magnitude to the incipient upturn.

12 Jan. 2015 More Misery for Industrial Production in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing data for the euro area's major economies point to renewed downside risks for GDP growth, despite the likely tailwind to consumption from low oil prices. November industrial production fell 0.1% and 0.3% month-to-month in Germany and France respectively, indicating that the manufacturing sector remains under pressure.

9 June. 2015 A flying start to Q2 for German Industrial sector and exports (Publication Centre)

Economic reports released yesterday indicate that the German economy was off to a solid start early in the second quarter. Industrial production rose 0.9% month-to-month in April, equivalent to a 1.4% increase year-over-year, up from a revised tiny 0.2% gain in March. This is the biggest annual jump in production since July last year, but the underlying trend is turning up only slowly, in line with the moderate improvement in survey data this year.

9 June. The Surge in April Industrial Production is Just Noise (Publication Centre)

April's 2.0% month-to-month leap in industrial production was the biggest upside surprise on record to the consensus forecast, which predicted no change. The surge, however, just reflects statistical and weather-related distortions. These boosts will unwind in May, ensuring that industry provides little support to Q2 GDP growth. Make no mistake, the recovery has not suddenly gained momentum.

10 October 2017 Industrial Production Likely to Surprise to the Downside Again (Publication Centre)

Industrial production figures look set to surprise the consensus to the downside again today. We think that production was flat on a month-to-month basis in August, falling short of the consensus forecast of 0.2% growth.

Question of the Week, WC 28th Oct (Media Centre)

What do the protests mean for Chile's economy?

Question of the Week, WC 7th Oct (Media Centre)

Are there any signs of a Chinese recovery yet? Freya Beamish discusses

25 January 2017 The EZ Economy is Performing Strongly, But Inflation is Picking Up (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy is in fine shape, according to the latest PMI data. The composite EZ PMI fell trivially to 54.3 in January, but remains strong. A marginal dip in the services index offset a small increase in the manufacturing PMI to a cyclical high of 55.1. These data tell a story of a strong private sector that continues to support GDP growth.

26 August. 2016 Early GDP Estimates Often Fail to Register Turning Points (Publication Centre)

Today's second estimate of Q2 GDP likely will restate the preliminary estimate that quarter-onquarter growth picked up to 0.6%, from 0.4% in Q1. Over the last two decades, the second estimate of GDP has differed from the preliminary estimate just 38% of the time.

25 Mar 2020 EZ Recession Confirmed, but how Long will the Slump Last (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's March PMIs confirmed that governments' actions to contain the Covid-19 outbreak dealt a hammer blow to the economy at the end of Q1.

25 Feb 2020 Inflation in Brazil and Mexico is Tame, but the Virus is a Real Threat (Publication Centre)

Brazil's inflation rate remained well under control over the first half of February.

25 August 2017 Sizzling Business Sentiment in France Signals Firm Q3 GDP (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of French business surveys contains hundreds of indicators, but its central story is comfortably simple.

26 Feb 2020 Britain Less Vulnerable than Most to a Coronavirus-led Downturn (Publication Centre)

News that the Covid-19 virus has spread to more countries frayed investors' nerves further yesterday, with the FTSE 100 eventually residing 5.3% below its Friday close.

25 Feb 2020 Don't Expect the BoK to Jump the Gun with Counter-Virus Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea is likely to keep its benchmark base rate unchanged, at 1.25%, at its meeting this week.

26 Feb 2020 Global Threats will Continue to Hurt the Mexican Economy this Year (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday confirmed that Mexico's economy ended Q4 poorly, confounding the most hawkish Banxico Board members.

25 June 2020 Upside Risk for May Durable Goods, but it's Mostly Noise, not Signal (Publication Centre)

The headline May durable goods orders numbers today probably will look very strong, with the odds favoring a much bigger increase than the 10.1% consensus; we'll come back to that.

25 Feb 2020 EZ Markets are Now Seriously Worried about Coronavirus (Publication Centre)

Yesterday was a watershed moment for investors.

25 February 2019 The IFO is still Bleak, but the German GDP Data are Nuanced (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data in Germany left markets with a confused picture of the Eurozone's largest economy.

25 July 2019 Grim Manufacturing Data Confirm Investors' Priors in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Broadly speaking, yesterday's headline EZ survey data recounted the same story they've told all year; namely that manufacturing is suffering amid resilience in services.

25 June 2018 Banxico Hikes Preventively, the Next Move Will Depend on the MXN (Publication Centre)

Mexican policymakers voted unanimously last Thursday to hike the main rate by 25bp to 7.75%, the highest since early 2009.

26 April 2017 French Business Confidence is Solid, but Manufacturing Fell in Q1 (Publication Centre)

French manufacturing confidence soared at the start of Q2. The headline INSEE index jumped to a six-year high of 108 in April, from an upwardly revised 105 in March. The headline was flattered by a big increase in the "past activity" index, but the survey's leading indicators also improved.French manufacturing confidence soared at the start of Q2. The headline INSEE index jumped to a six-year high of 108 in April, from an upwardly revised 105 in March. The headline was flattered by a big increase in the "past activity" index, but the survey's leading indicators also improved.

25 October 2017 Preliminary GDP Will Put Little Pressure on the MPC to Raise Rates (Publication Centre)

Today's preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP is the last major economic report to be released before the MPC's meeting on November 2.

25 July 2019 Today's Array of Data Could Shift the Needle on Q2 GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

The June durable goods, trade and inventory reports today, could make a material difference to forecasts for the first estimate of second quarter GDP growth, due tomorrow.

25 September 2017 Another Month, Another Robust PMI Report in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy ended the third quarter on a strong note, according to the PMIs.

25 June 2019 A New Fall in Mexican Services is Setting the Stage for a Poor Q2 (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday in Mexico strengthened the case for interest rate cuts this year.

25 March 2019 Dark Clouds over Manufacturing in the EZ, but Services are Stable (Publication Centre)

On a headline level, the key message from the Eurozone PMIs was little changed on Friday.

25 Nov 2019 Inflation in Brazil and Mexico is Easing, No Immediate Threats Here (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the biggest economies in the region remains close to cyclical lows, allowing central banks to ease even further over the next few months.

25 June 2019 The IFO Signals Slow Q2 GDP Growth in Germany We Believe it (Publication Centre)

The IFO continues to tell a story of a German economy on the ropes.

25 Nov 2019 Japanese October Retail Sales Likely Plunged, Despite Stable Inflation (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation was stable at 0.2% in October, despite the sales tax hike, thanks to a combination of offsetting measures from the government and a deepening of energy deflation.

25 Oct 2019 A Dignified Farewell by Mr. Draghi, All Eyes Now on Ms. Lagarde (Publication Centre)

The ECB made no changes to policy yesterday, leaving its key refinancing and deposit rates unchanged, at 0.00% and -0.5%, and confirmed that it will restart QE in November at €20B per month.

25 Oct 2019 Mortgage Lending to Remain Stable, Despite the Brexit Headwinds (Publication Centre)

The mortgage market is continuing to hold up surprisingly well, given the calamitous political backdrop.

25 January 2019 How Would an Extension of Article 50 Affect the MPC's Rate Hike Plans? (Publication Centre)

MPs look set to take a decisive step next Tuesday towards removing the risk of a calamitous no-deal Brexit at the end of March.

27 July 2020 Low Inflation in Brazil will Allow the Copom to Cut Rates in August (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday in Brazil and recent political events helped to open the door further to a final rate cut in August. The IPCA-15--which previews the full CPI-- rose 0.3% month-to-month in July, well below market expectations, 0.5%.

28 July 2020 Mexico's Volatile Trade Balance, Consequences of Chile's Reform (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday in Mexico highlighted the volatility in international trade resulting from the pandemic.

28 July 2017 The Eurozone is in fine form, as we start our summer break (Publication Centre)

This is the final report before your scribe disappears into the Scottish Highlands for a few weeks, and we are leaving you with a Eurozone economy in fine form. The calendar will be relatively light in our absence and will tell us what we already know; namely that the euro area economy maintained its strong momentum in Q2.

28 January 2019 Inflation Remains Benign in Mexico, Despite Temporary Shocks (Publication Centre)

Mexican economic data was surprisingly benign last week.

28 July 2020 Supply-Side Indicators Paint a Grim Picture of Japan's Second Quarter (Publication Centre)

The downturn in Japan's all-industry activity index slowed in May to -3.5% month-on-month, from April's significantly revised 7.6% plunge.

28 July. 2016 Acceleration of Q2 GDP Won't Have Much Bearing on Stimulus Debate (Publication Centre)

Taken at face value, the preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP suggests that the economic recovery weathered Brexit risk well. But growth received support from some unsustainable sources, and also probably was boosted by a calendar quirk. Meanwhile, with few firms or consumers expecting a vote for Brexit prior to the referendum, Q2's brisk growth tells us little about how well the economy will cope in the current climate of heightened uncertainty.

28 June 2018 Services Data to Highlight Downside Risk to the MPC's GDP Forecast (Publication Centre)

The MPC will be looking for the Q1 national accounts and April's index of services data, both released on Friday, to support its view that the economy hasn't lost momentum this year.

28 June 2017 Mexico's Trade Balance Stalled in May, but Trend Remains Positive (Publication Centre)

The upturn in Mexico's trade balance in recent months stalled in May, but the underlying trend is still improving. Data yesterday showed that the seasonally adjusted deficit rose to USD700M in May, after a USD15M gap in April. Imports rose 2.9% month-to-month, offsetting a mere 0.7% increase in exports.

28 Jan. 2016 Preliminary GDP Likely to Provide Another Downside Surprise (Publication Centre)

We expect today's preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP growth to surprise the consensus to the downside, underscoring our view that the economic recovery has shifted down to a much slower gear.

28 Jan 2020 Mexican Consumers' Spending Fell in Q4, but Should Rebound in Q1 (Publication Centre)

All the evidence indicates that growth in Mexican consumers' spending is slowing, despite the better- than-expected November retail sales numbers, released yesterday.

28 August 2018 Mexico Struggled at the End of the First Half Will it Rebound (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy shrank by 0.2% quarter- on-quarter in Q2, according to the final GDP report, a tenth worse than the preliminary reading.

28 April 2017 Preliminary GDP Estimate Likely to Reveal Q1 Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP looks set to show that the economy started 2017 on a weak footing. We share the consensus view that quarter-on-quarter GDP growth slowed to 0.4%, from 0.7% in Q4.

28 Feb 2020 The Bank of Korea Hangs Tough, Targeted Measures Only for Now (Publication Centre)

The BoK surprised markets and commentators by keeping rates unchanged at 1.25% yesterday, rather than cutting to 1.0%.

28 Feb 2020 Upside Risk for Mexican Retail Sales, but Total Consumption is What Matters (Publication Centre)

Retail sales in Mexico fell in Q4, but we think households' spending will continue to contribute to GDP growth in the first quarter, at the margin.

28 Jan 2020 Containment Measures Could Mean a Quarterly Fall in Chinese GDP (Publication Centre)

As the situation with the coronavirus develops, and we gain more information on the authorities' response, it's becoming clear that the damage to Q1 GDP is going to be nasty.

28 February 2018 Powell Plays the Continuity Card, Mostly, but he's Bullish on Growth (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell sounded a lot like Janet Yellen yesterday, at least in terms of substance.

28 June 2019 More Modest Pre-tax Front-Loading for Japan this Time Around? (Publication Centre)

Japan's May retail sales rebound was underwhelming at a mere 0.3% month-on-month, after a 0.1% fall in April.

28 May 2019 Brazil's Inflation Remains Benign, Mexico's GDP Brings Bad News (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic prospects continue to deteriorate rapidly, due to a combination of rising political uncertainty, the failure of the new government to advance on reforms, and ongoing external threats.

29 July 2019 China's GDP Headlines Overstate Growth but Q2 Wasn't all Bad News (Publication Centre)

China's Q2 real GDP growth officially slowed to 6.2% year-over-year, from 6.4% in Q1, which already matched the trough in the financial crisis.

29 January 2019 External Accounts in Brazil and Mexico are no Threat, For Now (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts were a relatively bright spot last year, once again.

29 January 2018 Japanese CPI inflation is Half Energy and Half Food, BoJ in a Bind (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation jumped to 1.0% in December from 0.6% in November, driven by food prices.

29 July 2020 No Big Changes from the Fed Today, but Enhanced Guidance is Coming (Publication Centre)

We argued in the Monitor on Friday--see here--that the Fed likely will increase the pace of its Treasury purchases, in order to ensure that the wave of supply needed to finance the next Covid relief bill does not drive up yields.

29 June 2020 The Mexican Economy Crumbled Even Further During the Lockdown (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday in Mexico strengthened the case for further interest rate cuts in Q3. The monthly IGAE economic indicator for April, a proxy for GDP, plunged 19.9% year-over-year, a record drop since the series started in 1993, and down from -2.3% in March.

29 Oct 2019 Monetary Stimulus Alone Won't be Able to End the Next Recession (Publication Centre)

Monetary policy usually is the first line of defence whenever a recession hits.

29 Oct 2019 China's Economy Still on the Rocks, A Bit More Easing is on its Way (Publication Centre)

Our analysis of the Q3 activity and GDP data in yesterday's Monitor strongly suggests that China's authorities will soon ready further stimulus.

29 Jan 2020 What Policy Measures Can we Expect to Cushion Corona-impact (Publication Centre)

The extent of shut downs within China is now reaching extreme levels, going far beyond services and threatening demand for commodities, as well as posing a severe risk to the nascent upturn in the tech cycle.

29 Jan 2020 Brazil External Accounts Weakened in 2019, but Are Not a Concern Yet (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts were a relatively bright spot again last year.

28 May 2020 Expect a Drop in India's Q1 GDP, the Early Virus Hit was Sizeable (Publication Centre)

The early damage in India from Covid-19 and the nationwide lockdown likely was significant enough to hammer the GDP report for the first quarter, due tomorrow.

28 May 2019 The Trade War: What we Know, What we Believe, and What we Don't Know (Publication Centre)

The trade war with China is a macroeconomic event, whose implications for economic growth and inflation can be estimated and measured using straightforward standard macroeconomic tools and data.

28 Oct 2019 China's Q3 GDP was Dire, Official Headlines Don't Tell the Half of it (Publication Centre)

China's official real GDP growth slowed to 6.0% year-over-year in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2 and 6.4% in Q1. Consecutive 0.2 percentage points declines are significant in China.

28 Oct 2019 Fernández Likely Won Argentina's Presidency, Brace for the Worst (Publication Centre)

Recent polls in Argentina suggest that Alberto Fernández, from the opposition platform Frente de Todos, has comfortably beaten Mauricio Macri, to become Argentina's president.

29 April 2019 More Soft Surveys in the EZ, but the Q1 GDP Data Should Be Solid (Publication Centre)

The EZ economic survey data for April were disappointing in our absence.

29 April 2019 Growth Will be Slower in Q2, but not Slow, What Will the Fed Say? (Publication Centre)

The definition of "yesbutism": Noun, meaning the practice of dismissing or seeking to diminish the importance of data on the grounds that the next iteration will tell the opposite story.

27 September 2017 A Stable and Solid Outlook for Private Investment in France (Publication Centre)

French business sentiment cooled marginally at the end of Q3. The headline manufacturing confidence index dipped to 110 in September, from 111 in August, though the overall business sentiment gauge was unchanged at 110.

27 Sept 2019 Core PCE Inflation is Set to Breach the Target in Q1, as Tariffs Bite (Publication Centre)

All eyes today will be on the core PCE deflator for August, which we think probably rose by a solid 0.2%.

26 September 2017 Brazil's Labor Market is on the Mend, But Challenges Persist (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian labour market is slowly healing following the severe recession of 2015-16. The latest employment data, released last week, showed that the economy added 35K net jobs in August, compared to a 34K loss in August 2016.

26 September 2017 Another Marginal Dip in the IFO, and Murky Politics in Germany (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey in Germany sent a marginally more downbeat message than the strong PMIs last week. The IFO business climate index fell to 115.2 in September, from 115.9 in August, its second straight monthly dip.

26 October 2017 Q3 GDP Will Spur a Rate Hike Next Week, but a Growth Relapse Looms (Publication Centre)

The pick-up in GDP growth in Q3 means that we now expect a majority of MPC members to vote to raise interest rates next week.

27 Apr 2020 Brazil and Mexico are Failing to Respond Effectively to the Covid Hit (Publication Centre)

Economic and financial conditions have worsened substantially in Brazil in recent weeks, due mainly to Covid-19 and the sharp deterioration of the global economy.

27 Aug 2019 Mexico's Economy Underwhelmed in the First Half Will it Improve (Publication Centre)

Mexican GDP was unchanged quarter-on-quarter in Q2, according to the final report, a tenth worse than the preliminary reading.

27 Feb 2020 Survey Data in France were Stable and Solid Midway through Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Covid-19 scare can be split into two stages, the initial outbreak in China, concentrated in Wuhan, and the now-worrying signs that clusters are forming in other parts of the world, primarily in South Korea, the Middle East and Italy.

27 Feb 2020 Non-China Covid-19 Spread is Slowing but Big Market Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of Covid-19 cases outside China appears to have peaked, for now, but we can't yet have any confidence that this represents a definitive shift in the progress of the epidemic.

26 November 2018 An Amber Alert Warning from the Eurozone PMIs in November (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic reports delivered more sobering news for the euro area economy.

26 Nov 2019 Mexico's Economy is in a Mild Recession, Downside Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Mexico's final estimate of third quarter GDP, released yesterday, confirmed that the economy is still struggling in the face of domestic and external headwinds.

26 July 2019 Mexico's Economy is Under Strain, But Falling Inflation is its Last Hope (Publication Centre)

We remain negative about the medium-term growth prospects of the Mexican economy.

26 February 2019 Your Guide to the New HICP Inflation Data in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

For a central bank already fighting for every decimal in its attempt to convince markets that underlying inflation is slowly edging higher, the recent shift in HICP methodology drives home an increasingly problematic issue.

26 July 2019 The Inevitable Q2 Slowdown Leaves H1 Growth at 21⁄2%, at the Trend (Publication Centre)

We're nudging down our estimate of Q2 GDP growth, due today, by 0.3 percentage points to 1.8%, in the wake of yesterday's array of data.

26 June 2020 The Covid Surge is Starting to Hit the Economic Data, More to Come (Publication Centre)

The extent to which the Covid wave in the South and West--plus a few states in other regions--will constrain the recovery is unknowable at this point.

26 Nov 2019 Hong Kong Politely Suggests that Beijing Reconsider its Stance (Publication Centre)

Hong Kong delivered a resounding landslide victory to pro-Democracy parties in district council elections over the weekend.

26 March 2019 A Few Bright Spots in the IFO, but Still an Overall Subdued Story (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO offered a rare upside surprise in the German survey data.

27 Feb 2020 Yesterday's Measures from China Help Avert Full-Blown Debt Crisis (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's State Council meeting significantly expanded support to the economy, through a number of channels.

27 February 2018 Indefinite Xi-ism will mean Spikes in Volatility, as big Decisions Roll Out (Publication Centre)

The Chinese Communist Party looks set to repeal Presidential term limits, meaning that Xi Jinping likely intends to stay on beyond 2023.

27 May 2020 Japan's April Activity Likely Dropped off a Cliff, How Bad was it (Publication Centre)

Japan's all-industry activity index dropped by 3.8% month-on-month in March, worse than the 0.7% slip in February.

27 Mar. 2015 Banxico Still Eyeing a Rate Hike After the Fed Moves in June (Publication Centre)

This week's economic data for the Mexican economy have been encouraging, especially for Banxico, which left its main interest rate unchanged yesterday at 3.0%. Inflation remained on target for the second consecutive month in the first half of February, and the closely-watched IGAE economic activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--continued to grow at a relatively solid pace, despite the big hit from lower oil prices.

27 Mar 2020 Pre-Virus Q1 Data in Brazil and Mexico Supported More Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus pandemic looks set to spread rapidly throughout LatAm.

27 May 2020 Low Inflation in Brazil, A Surprising Upward Revision to Mexico's GDP (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday in Brazil support our base case that the IPCA inflation rate will remain relatively stable over the coming months, hovering around 2%.

27 Nov 2019 Japan's October Retail Sales will Show Tax Hike Volatility (Publication Centre)

Japan's retail sales data--due out on Thursday-- have been badly affected by the October tax hike.

27 November 2017 Brazil's Politics and Economy are Both Heading in the Right Direction (Publication Centre)

President Temer seems to be advancing on his reform agenda.

27 Nov 2019 The Brazilian Real Weakens Further, Despite Improving Fundamentals (Publication Centre)

The BRL remains under severe stress, despite renewed signals of a sustained economic recovery and strengthening expectations that the end of the monetary easing cycle is near.

27 June 2019 Orders, Trade and Inventory Data Suggest Q2 Growth Headed for 21⁄4% (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's raft of data had no net impact on our forecast for second quarter GDP growth, which we still think will be about 21⁄4%.

27 July. 2016 Firm Q2 GDP Unlikely to Signal Post-Referendum Resilience (Publication Centre)

The preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP, published today, likely will show that growth was immaterially different from Q1's 0.4% quarter-on-quarter rate. But this should not be interpreted as a sign that the economy will be able to shrug off the impact of last month's vote to leave the E.U.

27 Jan 2020 The EZ PMIs were Soft in January, but the German Data were Solid (Publication Centre)

Friday's PMI data were a mixed bag.

27 Jan 2020 Mexico's IGAE Index Points to a Further Dip in GDP Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The dovish members of Banxico's board garnered further support on Friday for prolonging the current easing monetary cycle over coming meetings.

27 Jan 2020 Who are the Biggest Casualties of China's Travel Curbs (Publication Centre)

On Friday last week, the Chinese authorities suspended sales of domestic and international tours, in an effort to contain the spread of the coronavirus, which started in Wuhan.

27 Jan. 2015 Don't Panic over Greece, a solution between the Troika and Syriza will be found (Publication Centre)

The landslide victory by anti-austerity party Syriza in Greece this weekend will increase uncertainty in coming months. The coalition between Syriza and the Independent Greeks will prove a tough negotiating partner for the EU as both parties are strongly in favor of pushing the Troika to significant concessions on any future bailout terms this year.

24 Oct 2019 Which Fork in the Road Will the PM Take? (Publication Centre)

The PM now is at a fork in the road and will have to decide in the coming days whether to risk all and seek a general election, or restart the process of trying to get the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB--through parliament.

27 July 2017 GDP Growth Will Remain Weak in 2017, Keeping the MPC Inactive (Publication Centre)

GDP rose by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, according to the ONS' preliminary estimate, confirming that the economy has fundamentally slowed since the Brexit vote. The modest growth has reduced further the already-small risk that the MPC will raise interest rates at its next meeting on August 3.

26 Feb 2020 Time for a Further Downgrade of Chinese Q1 GDP (Publication Centre)

In our Webinar--see here--we laid out scenarios for Chinese GDP in Q1 and for this year.

22 Nov 2019 Fiscal Stimulus is Coming, Whoever Wins, the MPC will Need to Act (Publication Centre)

The public finances are in better shape than October's figures suggest in isolation. Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks--PSNB ex.--leapt to £11.2B, from £8.9B a year earlier.

20 July 2017 The June Housing Starts Rebound is not the Start of a Boom (Publication Centre)

We would like to be able to argue with conviction that the surge in June housing starts and building permits represents the beginning of a renewed strong upward trend, but we think that's unlikely.

20 May 2020 Coronavirus Delivers a Tough Blow to Argentina's Struggling Economy (Publication Centre)

Hard data released in Argentina over the last month showed that the economy was struggling in early Q1, even before the Covid-19 hit.

20 May. 2015 Chile is Recovering, But Colombia Faces Further Near-Term Softness (Publication Centre)

Colombia, the third largest economy in LatAm, has not been immune to the headwinds of the global economy since the financial crisis in 2008, though it remains one of the fastest growing economies in the region. GDP growth slowed sharply to just 1.7% in 2009, but that was still much better than the 1.2% contraction of the region as a whole.

20 Nov 2019 Indian Inflation Smashes Through the RBI's Target, Setting Up a Pause (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation in India jumped to 4.6% in October, from 4.0% in September, marking a 16-month high and blasting through the RBI's target.

20 Jan 2020 China's Economy is Stabilising, Weaker than the Headlines Suggest (Publication Centre)

Officially, China's real GDP growth was unchanged at 6.0% year-over-year in Q4; low by Chinese standards, but not overly worrying. Full-year growth was 6.1% within the 6.0-to-6.1% target down from 6.7% last year, also in keeping with the authorities' long-term poverty reduction goals.

20 Jan 2020 Weak December Sales Are Noise, Consumer Fundamentals are Solid (Publication Centre)

Expectations that the MPC will cut Bank Rate at its meeting on January 30 received a further shot in the arm at the end of last week, when December's retail sales figures were released.

20 Dec 2019 Retailers aren't Really Having a Nightmare Before Christmas (Publication Centre)

The run of weak retail sales figures continued yesterday, with the release of November's official data.

20 December 2017 The IFO Signals a Solid Q4 in Germany, Despite December Dip (Publication Centre)

German survey data did something out of character yesterday; they fell. The IFO business climate index declined to 117.2 in December from a revised 117.6 in November.

20 Feb 2020 Domestically-Generated Inflation Will Rise Further, Ruling Out a Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

The market-implied probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate by June fell to 34%, from 38%, after the release of January's consumer price figures, though investors still see around an 80% chance of a cut by the end of this year.

20 Feb. 2015 Colombia's Strong Domestic Activity is Neutralizing Oil Price Hit (Publication Centre)

Colombia's oil industry--one of the key drivers of the country's economic growth over the last decade--has been stumbling over recent months, raising concerns about the country's growth prospects. But the recent weakness of the mining sector is in stark contrast with robust internal demand and solid domestic production.

20 Nov 2019 Which Leading Indicator of Core Goods Inflation Should be Trusted? (Publication Centre)

Leading indicators are giving conflicting signals regarding the outlook for core goods CPI inflation.

20 September 2018 The EU Won't be Tariffed, at Least Not This Year (Publication Centre)

Mr. Trump fired the shot everyone was expecting this week with a 10% tariff on $200B-worth of Chinese goods, and a pledge to lift the rate to 25% on January 1.

21 Jan. 2015 Colombia Will Lose Momentum in 2015, But Don't Panic Just Yet (Publication Centre)

Colombia is one of the few larger economies in Latin America to have enjoyed solid, positive economic growth over the past two years. But lower commodity prices and last year's central bank tightening, to curb high inflation generated by strong growth, have started to become visible in the main economic data.

21 January 2019 Colombia's Private Spending Did Well in Q4, 2019 Will Be Solid (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday confirmed that Colombian activity remained strong in Q4.

21 Nov 2019 Will the End of the Local Authority Borrowing Binge Hit Capex? (Publication Centre)

Borrowing by local authorities from the Public Works Loan Board, used to finance capital projects-- and arguably dubious commercial property acquisitions--has surged this year.

21 Oct 2019 Are Portfolio Flows Turning in Favour of Eurozone Equities (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus recovered a bit of ground mid-way through the third quarter.

21 Jan 2020 Colombia's Private Consumption Slowed in Q4, Will it Stabilize Soon? (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday confirmed that Colombian activity lost momentum in Q4, following an impressive performance in late Q2 and Q3. Retail sales rose 4.4% in November, down from 7.4% in October and 8.3% in Q3.

21 February 2019 Will the Real Story in French Services Please Stand Up (Publication Centre)

Today's data dump will deliver the advance PMIs and the French INSEE business sentiment indices for February, all of which will be examined closely for signs of stabilisation in the wake of recent evidence that EZ growth is slowing quicker than markets and the ECB have been expecting.

21 Aug 2019 China's Authorities Signal Further Easing, but Space is Limited (Publication Centre)

The PBoC's reformed one-year Loan Prime Rate was published yesterday at 4.25%, compared with 4.31% on the previous LPR, and below the benchmark lending rate, 4.35%.

21 August 2018 The End of the Beginning for the Greek Public Debt Tragedy (Publication Centre)

Greece's exit from eight years of near constant bail-out programs raises as many questions as it answers.

21 December 2017 Q3 Accounts to Reveal Temporary Supports to Households' Spending (Publication Centre)

The national accounts, released on Friday, likely will restate that quarter-on-quarter GDP growth picked up to 0.4% in Q3, from 0.3% in Q2.

21 Feb 2020 A Bad Weather Hit to February's Composite PMI (Publication Centre)

We expect the flash reading of Markit's composite PMI, released today, to print at 52.4 in February, below the consensus, 52.8, and January's final reading, 53.3, albeit still in line with last month's flash.

20 Dec 2019 Next Stop for the BoJ, Increase Flexibility of the Framework (Publication Centre)

The BoJ held firm, for the most part, during this year's bout of central bank dovishness.

20 Dec 2019 Expect a Benign November Core PCE, but Change is Coming in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Under normal circumstances, the 0.23% increase in the core CPI, reported earlier this month, would be enough to ensure a 0.2% print in today's core PCE deflator.

2 Dec 2019 Further Increase in Japanese Unemployment in Store (Publication Centre)

Japan's jobless rate was unchanged, at 2.4% in October, as the market took a breather after September's job losses.

2 Dec 2019 The Effects of the Protests are Starting to Show up in Chile's Data (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets and currencies had a bad November, due to global trade war concerns, the USD rebound and domestic factors.

2 February 2018 Is it Time to Tell a More Balanced Story on EZ Manufacturing? (Publication Centre)

We struggle to find much wrong with the near-term outlook for Eurozone manufacturing. The headline PMI fell marginally to 59.6 in January, from 60.6 in December, but it continues to signal robust growth at the start of the year.

2 Jan 2020 Bad Omens for Q4 Consumers' Spending Growth in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Data on EZ consumption were soft while we were enjoying our Christmas break. The advance EC consumer confidence index slipped to a three-year low of -8.1 in December, from -7.2 in November, breaking its recent tight range.

2 Dec 2019 EZ Core Inflation is Rising, but It Probably Overshot in November (Publication Centre)

The key detail in Friday's barrage of economic data was the above-consensus increase in EZ inflation.

2 Apr 2020 EZ Manufacturing is Under Siege, But Help is Coming, we Hope (Publication Centre)

Within the space of two months, investors have gone from wondering whether the slowdown in manufacturing would spill-over into the rest of the EZ economy, to the realisation that the crunch in services is now driving the overall story on the economy.

19 Nov 2019 The Size of any Tory Majority Matters for Sterling's Medium-term Path (Publication Centre)

Investors have welcomed the flurry of encouraging opinion polls for the Conservatives that were published over the weekend, with cable rising nearly to $1.30 on Monday, a level last seen on a sustained basis six months ago.

19 September 2017 China's Property Market Cools, Downtrend now Established (Publication Centre)

China's property market continued to slow in August, with prices rising by just 0.2% month-on- month seasonally adjusted, half the July pace.

19 September 2017 Colombia's Economy Finally Hits Bottom, but Recovery will be Slow (Publication Centre)

Colombian activity data released this last week were upbeat, better than we expected, showing a significant pickup in manufacturing output and improving retail sales. Retail sales rose 3.1% year- over-year, after a modest 1.0% increase in June.

19 September 2018 Brazil's Economy is Muddling Through, but the Election is a Risk (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economy surprised to the upside in early Q3, despite downbeat data released in recent days.

2 Jan 2020 China's PMIs Highlight Weakening Non-manufacturing Sector (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 50.2 in December, marking a weak end to the year. But it could have been worse; we had been worried that the return to above-50 territory in November had been boosted by temporary factors. December's print allays some of those fears.

2 January 2018 While we Were Out... (Publication Centre)

Most of the data were consistent with the idea that fourth quarter growth will be a two-part story, with real strength in domestic final demand partly offset by substantial drags from net foreign trade and inventories.

2 October 2018 PMIs Show China is Slowing Risks of a Government Overreaction (Publication Centre)

China's September PMIs, most of which were released over the weekend, mark out a clear downtrend in activity since late last year.

20 Apr 2020 Andean Economies the Bright Spot in LatAm, Brazil and Mexico a Mess (Publication Centre)

The Andean economies have been clear examples of true leadership in the current global crisis. Leaders of these countries acted rapidly to contain the spread of the virus, jumping right over the phases of denial, anger and unscrupulousness we've seen in Brazil and Mexico.

20 Apr 2020 Chinese GDP Seems Unlikely to Rise in 2020, given the Q1 Drop (Publication Centre)

It happened! Before Q1, Chinese GDP year-over- year growth had moved by no more than two tenths of a percentage point for years.

20 Aug 2019 Weak Growth and Low Inflation in Mexico More Rate Cuts Ahead (Publication Centre)

While we were on holiday, the data confirmed that inflation in Mexico is rapidly unwinding the increases posted earlier in the year; that the economy was under severe strain in late Q2 and early Q3; and that the near-term outlook has grown increasingly challenging.

2 Oct 2019 Japanese Dualism Intensified in Q3 Capex Weak, Consumption Strong (Publication Centre)

Japan's Tankan survey continues to paint a picture of a contracting economy.

2 November 2018 Copom on Hold for a While the BRL Allows some Room for Manoeuvre (Publication Centre)

Brazil's central bank kept the Selic policy rate at 6.50% this week, as markets broadly expected.

2 Mar 2020 Japan's Labour Data in Disarray, Early Signs of Virus Worries? (Publication Centre)

Japan's labour data threw another January curve ball this year--last year it was wages--with a change in the standards for job openings.

2 Mar 2020 Cyclical Improvement in Brazil's Unemployment, but Threats Rising (Publication Centre)

Data on Friday showed that the downward trend in Brazil's unemployment continued into this year. The unadjusted unemployment rate fell to 11.2% in January, slightly below the consensus, and down from 12.0% in January last year.

2 Mar. 2015 Falling Confidence, High Inflation, Rising Rates: Brazil in a Mess (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic data last week were appalling. The IPCA-15 price index rose 1.3% month-to-month, the fastest pace in 12 years, pushing the annual rate to 7.4% in mid-February from 6.7% in mid-January,well above the 6.5% upper bound of the BCB's target range.

21 Oct 2019 No Lasting Relief for the Economy, if the New Brexit Deal Eventually Passes (Publication Centre)

The government now has a 50:50 chance of getting the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB--through parliament in the coming weeks, despite Letwin's successful amendment and the extension request.

22 August. 2016 Fiscal Problems Will be Exposed as Brazil's Political Mess Clears (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic performance has improved marginally in recent months, with inflation falling and economic activity and sentiment data stabilizing, or even increasing modestly. The latest regional economic activity report, for instance, showed that although overall output declined again on a sequential basis in March-to-May, three of the five regions expanded.

23 Jan. 2015 Brazil Continues to Combat Expectations for Surging Inflation (Publication Centre)

Brazil's central bank is finally decisively facing its demon, persistently high inflation. The eight-member policy board, known as Copom, decided unanimously on Wednesday to increase the Selic rate by 50bp to 12.25%, the highest level in more than three years, in line with the consensus.

23 Mar. 2016 Rousseff's Government is on the Ropes - Fiscal Progress Will Slow (Publication Centre)

Political turmoil in Brazil continues to undermine President Dilma Rousseff's leverage over the economy. On Friday, the Lower House of Congress voted to start impeachment proceeding against Ms. Rousseff. She has until early April to present her defense against charges that she doctored government accounts and used graft proceeds to fund the 2014 electoral campaign.

23 March 2017 Warm Weather Points to Upside Risk for February New Home Sales (Publication Centre)

New home sales are much more susceptible to weather effects -- in both directions -- than existing home sales. We have lifted our forecast for today's February numbers above the 575K pace implied by the mortgage applications data in recognition of the likely boost from the much warmer-than-usual temperatures.

23 Oct 2019 Mr. Macron is Blowing the Budget in France, it's Working, for now (Publication Centre)

The prospect of fiscal stimulus in the euro area-- ostensibly to "help" the ECB reach its inflation target-- remains a hot topic for investors and economists.

23 Jan 2020 The ECB Will Stick to its Guns Today, Negative Rates Work (Publication Centre)

Barring a meteor strike, the ECB will leave its main refinancing and deposit rates unchanged today, at 0.00% and -0.5% respectively.

23 Jan 2020 Korea's Scorching Q4 GDP will be Downgraded, but the Recovery is On (Publication Centre)

GDP growth in Korea surprised to the upside in the fourth quarter, with the economy expanding by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, three times as fast as in Q3, and the biggest increase in nine quarters.

23 Aug 2019 Japan's Services PMI Spike Points to a Punchy Q3... Before Q4 Payback (Publication Centre)

Japan's flash PMI numbers for August were a mixed bag.

23 August. 2016 Mexico Struggled at the end of the First Half - Will it Rebound? (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy shrank by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, according to the final GDP report, a tenth better than the preliminary reading. The year-over-year rate rose marginally to 2.5% from 2.4% in Q1. But the year-over-year data are not seasonally adjusted, understating the slowdown in the first half of the year, as shown in our first chart.

23 February 2017 The IFO Agrees with the PMI: German GDP Growth to Rise in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German IFO survey broadly confirmed the bullish message from the PMIs earlier this week. The headline business climate index rose to 111.0 in February from a revised 109.9 in January, boosted by increases in both the current assessment and the expectations index.

23 February 2018 IFO and INSEE Business Surveys Compound February Misery (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's national surveys in the EZ confirmed the downbeat message from the PMIs and consumer sentiment data earlier this week.

23 Oct 2019 Take the PM's Threat of a General Election Seriously (Publication Centre)

As we write, the Commons appears to be on the verge of voting for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB--at its second reading but then voting against the government's "Programme Motion", which sets out a very tight timetable for its passage through parliament, in a bid to meet the October 31 deadline and to minimise parliamentary scrutiny.

23 October 2018 China's Retail Sales Show that Tax Reductions were Badly Needed (Publication Centre)

China's September activity data, released at the end of last week, back up our claim that GDP growth weakened in Q3, on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

24 Jan 2020 How Soon will the Chancellor Use his Ample Fiscal Headroom? (Publication Centre)

The public finances are in better health than appeared to be the case a few months ago.

24 July 2018 Mexico's Services Sector Still Driving the Economic Cycle (Publication Centre)

Economic activity in Mexico during the past few months has been resilient, as external and domestic threats, particularly domestic political risks, appear to have diminished.

24 June 2019 Further Evidence of Stabilisation in EZ Growth from the PMIs (Publication Centre)

Friday's advance PMI data for the Eurozone added further evidence of stabilisation in the economy after the sharp slowdown in GDP growth since the beginning of last year.

24 June. 2015 Another Upbeat PMI Report Adds to the Cyclical Optimism in the EZ (Publication Centre)

The PMI survey yesterday painted a more upbeat picture on the Eurozone economy than we expected. The composite index rose to 54.1 in June from 53.6 in May, taking the quarterly average to its highest level since Q2 2011.

24 Feb 2020 The PMIs are Lost in Translation, Here is What You Need to Know (Publication Centre)

Friday's PMIs were supposed to provide the first reliable piece of evidence of the coronavirus on euro area businesses, but they didn't. Instead, they left economists dazed, confused and scrambling for a suitable narrative.

24 Feb 2020 Covid-19 Takes out Hope of Japan's Q1 Recovery, PMIs Show (Publication Centre)

Japan's January PMIs sent a clear signal that the virus impact is not to be underestimated. The manufacturing PMI fell to 47.6 in February, from 48.8 in January, contrasting sharply with the rising headlines of last week's batch of European PMIs.

24 April 2018 Welcome Signs of Stabilisation in the Eurozone PMI Data (Publication Centre)

Eurozone investors will be drawing a sigh of relief after yesterday's PMI data. The alarming plunge in February and March made way for stabilisation, with the composite PMI in the euro area unchanged at 55.2 in April.

24 August 2017 Markets Will Look in Vain for QE Clues from Mr. Draghi this Week (Publication Centre)

Eurozone investors are fixed on Mr. Draghi's speaking schedule this week, looking for hints of the ECB's future policy path.

24 August 2017 Second Estimate of Q2 GDP to Show U.K. Missing out on G7 Boom (Publication Centre)

We expect today's second estimate of Q2 GDP to confirm that the U.K. has been the slowest growing G7 economy this year.

24 August 2018 The Glass is Half-Full in the Eurozone PMI Data for August (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMI data in the Eurozone economy were a mixed bag.

23 Aug 2019 Further Evidence of Resilience in the Eurozone PMI Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's August PMI data in the euro area ran counter to the otherwise gloomy signals from the ZEW and Sentix investor sentiment indices.

23 April 2019 Brazil's Economy will Improve, but Rising Political Risk Remains a Drag (Publication Centre)

The economic data in Brazil were poor while we were away.

22 Jan 2020 Resilient Labour Market will Make the Doves Pause for Thought (Publication Centre)

November's labour market report provided timely reassurance, after last week's downside data surprises, that the economy did not grind to a halt at the end of last year.

22 Jan. 2016 How Long Will the Inventory Correction Last? (Publication Centre)

We're expecting a substantial inventory hit in the fourth quarter, subtracting about 1¼ percentage points from headline GDP growth. Businesses very likely added to their inventories in Q4, in real terms, but the we reckon the increase was only about $30B, annualized, compared to the $85.5B jump in the third quarter. Remember, the contribution to GDP growth is the change in the pace of inventory-building between quarters.

22 January 2018 China Growth Met Target Before Q4, Environmental Targets hit in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The China Daily ran an article entitled "Beijing, nation get breath of fresh air" on the day Chinese GDP figures were published last week, underlining where the authorities' priorities now lie.

22 July 2019 The Fed's Friday Pushback Against 50bp Makes Sense it's Too Much (Publication Centre)

With Fed officials now in pre-FOMC meeting blackout mode, this week will not bring a repeat of Friday's confusion, when the New York Fed felt obligated to issue a clarification following president William's speech on monetary policy close to the zero bound.

22 Jan 2020 Don't Set Store by the BoJ's Optimistic GDP Forecast for 2020 (Publication Centre)

The BoJ kept its main policy settings unchanged yesterday, in another 7-to-2 split.

22 February 2019 This Month's PMI Headline: Weak Manufacturing, Strong Services (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's February PMI data sent a clear message to markets.

22 Dec. 2015 Miserable Economic And Political News Keeps Coming For Brazil (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recent political and economics news has shifted the near-term outlook from bad to worse. President Rousseff on Friday replaced hawkish Finance Minister Joaquim Levy, appointed just over a year ago, with a close partner, Planning Minister Nelson Barbosa. Mr. Levy resigned after continued conflicts with the government, including frustration by the Congress of his attempts to rein in the fiscal mess. Mr. Barbosa is known to be less market friendly, and will likely defend countercyclical measures, delaying any rapid fiscal consolidation. The appointment will deteriorate investors' confidence even further, placing the markets under enormous strain.

22 February 2018 Hold The Press: We Have a Downbeat Eurozone PMI Report (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data presented Eurozone investors with an unfamiliar sight; a big downside surprise in the survey data.

22 February 2018 Labour Market Wobble Should Instil Some Caution on the MPC (Publication Centre)

The stand-out news yesterday was the increase in the headline, three-month average, unemployment rate to 4.4% in December, from 4.3% in September.

22 February 2019 The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Japan's Economy from Q4 to Q1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Japanese activity data were grim.

22 July 2020 Argentina's Economic Recovery is Underway, but it's a Very Slow Start (Publication Centre)

Economic activity is rebounding in LatAm, but the recovery will be slow and uneven.

22 July 2020 Don't Fret About the New Weakness in Korea's Partial Trade Data (Publication Centre)

Korea's fledgling export recovery seemingly hit a roadblock this month.

22 Oct 2019 Two Idiosyncratic Factors are Adding to the EZ Economy's Woes (Publication Centre)

The slowdown in the EZ economy is well publicised.

23 Apr 2020 India's Sudden Stop Plain to See in Trade, Longer Lockdown to Kill Q2 (Publication Centre)

India's trade data for March highlight the immediate severity of the country's sudden nationwide lockdown.

23 Apr. 2015 Cyclical recovery in the Eurozone will likely moderate in Q2, slightly (Publication Centre)

The preliminary April PMIs due today will provide the first economic sentiment data for Q2, and likely will point to a continuation of the cyclical recovery. We think the composite PMI was unchanged at 54.0 in April, driven by a small gain in manufacturing offset by a slight decline in services.

23 April 2018 German Producer Price Inflation is Turning Up, Slowly (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data suggest that the downtrend in German PPI inflation is reversing.

22 Oct 2019 Even if the PM Prevails Today, a No- Confidence Vote Could Force a Delay (Publication Centre)

Sterling briefly touched $1.30 yesterday, in response to signs that a very small majority in the Commons stands ready to vote for an unamended version of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB-- on Tuesday.

29 Oct 2019 The Mexican Economy Stagnated in Q3, Q4 Will be Slightly Better (Publication Centre)

While we were out, data released in Mexico added to our downbeat view of the economy in the near term, supporting our base case for interest rate cuts in the near future.

22 June 2018 The MPC Glosses Over Weak Data, but Must Confront Reality in August (Publication Centre)

The MPC was more hawkish than we and most investors expected yesterday. The vote to keep Bank Rate at 0.50% was split 6-3, f ollowing Andy Haldane's decision to join the existing hawks, Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders.

22 May 2020 Japan's Abysmal Exports Could Soon Stabilise, Looking at Korea (Publication Centre)

Japan's export data for April unsurprisingly were abysmal, driving a massive deterioration in the trade balance, which flipped from a modest ¥5B surplus in March, to a ¥930B deficit.

22 May. 2015 Solid EZ PMI, but Weak German Manufacturing is Worrying (Publication Centre)

The composite PMI in the Eurozone continues to edge slightly lower, falling to 53.4 in May from 53.9 in April. A fall in the services index to 53.3, from 54.1 last month offset a modest increase in manufacturing to 52.3 from 52.0 in April.

24 Oct 2019 A Standing Ovation for Mr. Draghi Today as he Departs the ECB (Publication Centre)

Today's ECB meeting will mainly be a victory lap for Mr. Draghi--it is the president's last meeting before Ms. Lagarde takes over--rather than the scene of any major new policy decisions.

5 October 2018 Brazil Heads to the Polls on Sunday a Contested Second Round is Likely (Publication Centre)

Brazil heads to the polls on Sunday, followed by an expected run-off on October 28.

19 Nov 2019 Italian GDP Growth is Rebounding, but at a Painfully Slow Pace (Publication Centre)

Italy's economy is still bumping along the bottom, after emerging from recession in the middle of last year.

9 October 2017 Did German Manufacturing Pick up the Pace in Q3? (Publication Centre)

Friday's German new orders data were sizzling. Factory orders jumped 3.6% month-to-month in August, pushing the year-over-year rate up to a nine-month high of 7.8%, from an upwardly-revised 5.4% in July.

9 Oct 2019 Why has German Manufacturing Output Fallen so Far so Fast (Publication Centre)

German manufacturing rebounded somewhat mid-way through Q3.

9 Oct 2019 Car Output and Sales Data Point to Upside Risk to August's GDP (Publication Centre)

We look for August's GDP report, released on Thursday, to show that output held steady, following July's 0.3% month-to-month jump.

9 Sept 2019 The EZ Economy is Carrying the Burden of Weak Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Friday's detailed Q2 growth data in the EZ broadly confirmed the advance numbers.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Short-term trends in Chinese industry continued to soften in May, with catch-up growth fading, No noticeably May Day lift, as retail sales in China continue to fall behind, Chinese investment looks to have taken a breather in May, Don't put too much stock into the stronger increase in Chinese home prices, Japan's tertiary index should rebound from April, but Q2 is a write-off

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 June 2019 (Publication Centre)

The BoJ keeps it promises vague. Japan's April is turning out quite nicely. PPI inflation in Korea slipped in May, and is heading for deflation in Q3.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 19 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

BoJ signals a package is coming in October. Waning construction tarnishes July's all-industry activity report. No PBoC move, for now, but it's coming.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's consensus-beating Q2 GDP signals that it is done easing. Chinese industry drove the Q2 rebound... now comes the hard part. The recovery in manufacturing capex in China continues to disappoint. The upward momentum in China's property market is unlikely to last. The BoK held, but Governor Lee's rhetoric suggests it should've cut.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

Chinese production surprises in April, as catch-up growth and inventory build continue; Disappointing sales headline in China masks respectable short-term trends; Recovery in secondary investment in China still lagged behind tertiary capex; PPI deflation has largely bottomed out, but don't expect a quick exit

9 May 2019 March GDP Likely to Continue the Run of Above-Consensus Prints (Publication Centre)

We're among a small minority of economists forecasting that GDP rose by 0.1% month-to-month in March.

9 May 2018 The German Economy Finished Q1 on a Strong Note (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports showed that the German economy firmed at the end of Q1, but this doesn't change the story for a poor quarter overall.

9 June 2020 Assessing the Magnitude of April's Collapse in GDP (Publication Centre)

April's GDP report probably will be the worst any of us will see in our lifetime.

7 Dec. 2015 German Factory Orders are Slowing, Despite October's Jump (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing activity in Germany rebounded at the start of the fourth quarter, following a miserable Q3. New orders jumped 1.8% month-to-month in October, lifted by increases in consumer and capital goods orders, both domestic and export. But the year-over-year rate fell to -1.4%, from a revised -0.7% in September, due to unfavorable base effects, and the three-month trend remained below zero. Our first chart shows that non-Eurozone export orders are the key drag, with export orders to other euro area economies doing significantly better.

7 December 2017 Onwards and Upwards for New Orders in German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Demand for German manufacturing goods remained firm at the start of Q4. Data yesterday showed that factory orders increased 0.5% month-to-month in October, helped by gains in both export and domestic activity.

9 July 2020 China's Q2 GDP Bounce was Solid, but Expect a Print Shy of Consensus (Publication Centre)

China's GDP report for the second quarter is due a week from today, and the prevailing wisdom is that the bounce-back was strong enough for headline growth to return to the black.

9 June 2020 Support for a Sustained Rally in EURUSD Remains Inconclusive (Publication Centre)

Traders looking for a sustained move in the euro have been left disappointed in the past six-to-12 months, but it is now teasing investors with a break to the upside against the dollar.

9 Mar 2020 More Good News in the EZ, which Doesn't Mean Anything (Publication Centre)

Leave it to an economist to tell contradictory stories; German manufacturing orders, at the start of the year, rose at their fastest pace since 2014, but it doesn't mean anything.

9 Mar 2020 January GDP to Highlight Pre- Virus Momentum in Growth (Publication Centre)

January's GDP report, released on Wednesday, was set to be one of the most important data releases of this year, due to its role in providing the first official steer on the economy's post-election performance.

6 September 2018 Does the Caixin Services PMI Pick up Activity Missing from GDP (Publication Centre)

The Caixin services PMI fell to 51.5 in August, from 52.8 in July.

6 September. 2016 Too Soon to Breathe a Sigh of Relief on Recession Risk (Publication Centre)

The improvement in the August services PMI has generated hyperbolic headlines suggesting the U.K. is on a tear despite the Brexit vote. Taken literally, however, the PMIs suggest that the revival in business activity in August only partially reversed July's decline. Meanwhile, the impact of sterling's sharp depreciation on the purchasing power of firms and consumers has only just begun to be felt.

7 August 2017 Brazil's Central Bank Set to Ease to 7.25% or Lower by Year-End (Publication Centre)

While we were out, Brazil's economic and political situation continued to improve, allowing the BCB to cut the Selic rate by 100bp to 9.25% at its July 26th meeting, matching expectations.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 27 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: BoJ makes a gesture on bond buying

ASIAN DATA WRAP 27 August 2019 (Publication Centre)

Chinese profits show signs of stabilisation, but headwinds will continue

6 Sept 2019 Ugly Factory Orders Data to Kick off Q3 for German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Demand in German manufacturing slid at the start of Q3.

6 September 2017 Chinese Service PMI Still Stable but Glosses Over Subsector Divergence (Publication Centre)

The services sector in China is notoriously difficult to track, with the major aggregate statistics published only on a quarterly or even annual basis.

US 15 September 2017 Core CPI Mean-Reverts, Hefty Storm-Induced Increases Ahead? (Publication Centre)

The run of soft core CPI numbers is over. The average 0.18% increase over the past two months probably is a good indication of the underlying trend -- the prints would have been close to this pace in both months had it not been for wild swings in the lodging component -- and the other one-time oddities of recent months' have faded.

U.S. Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Grim. Thank the trade war, which means no improvement is likely anytime soon.

6 Nov. 2015 Woeful German Manufacturing Data Curbs Optimism for Q4 (Publication Centre)

German manufacturing data continues to offer a sobering counterbalance to strong services and consumers' spending data. New orders plunged 1.7% month-to-month in September, well below the consensus, pushing the year-over-year rate down to a 1.0% fall from a revised 1.7% increase in August. These data are very volatile, and revisions probably will lift the final number slightly next month, but the evidence points to clear risks of a further decline in the underlying trend of production.

6 Nov 2019 Minutes Confirm COPOM's Cautious Tone, Mexico's Inflation to Fall Ahead (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's minutes of the October 31 COPOM meeting, at which the Central Bank cut the Selic rate unanimously by 50bp at 5.00%, reaffirmed the committee's post-meeting communiqué, which signalled that rates will be cut by the "same magnitude" in December.

6 June 2017 May Services PMI Dents Second Quarter Rebound Hopes (Publication Centre)

The fall in the services PMI to 53.8 in May, from 55.8 in April, is a setback for hopes that the slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 will be fleeting. Both business activity and orders rose at their slowest rates since February.

6 June 2018. The Caixin PMI Belies the Struggle in Finance and Real Estate (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the Caixin services PMI was unremarkable in May, unchanged at 52.9.

6 June. 2016 Mr. Temer Begins Brazil's Fiscal Overhaul, Despite Political Unrest (Publication Centre)

Brazil's interim government has been trying to put the kibosh on the vicious circle of recession, capital outflows, and political pandering that has dogged the country for so long. In his first few weeks at the helm, despite the political turmoil, Mr. Temer has started to tackle Brazil's fiscal mess, the country's biggest headache.

6 March 2017 Fed Fears Hit LatAm FX Last Week - is a Renewed Sell-off Coming? (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets have struggled in recent days as it has become clear that the Fed will hike next week. But we don't expect currencies to collapse, as domestic fundamentals are improving and the broader external outlook is relatively benign.

LatAm Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Unemployment nudges higher in Q3.

LatAm Datanote: A modest mm fall, but the trend likely will stabilise soon. (Publication Centre)

In one line: A modest m/m fall, but the trend likely will stabilise soon.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 29 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Commodity-price pressures dampen Chinese profits' return to growth, Retail sales in Japan recover only modestly in May

ASIAN DATA WRAP 29 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

Korean IP was due a bounce after February's sourcing woes... that will pale in comparison to the April hit.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 27 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Horrendous Chinese profits plummet should spur the authorities into further stimulus. No signs yet of persistent discounting in Tokyo, but a lockdown would change things overnight.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 27 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Surge in Chinese profits suggests industry no longer needs additional life support, Japan's all-industry gauge likely returned to the black in June

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

PBoC rate cut still on the tame side but more is coming, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI yet to see virus damage, China's profits better than the headline suggests going into the coronavirus hit, Early signs of coronavirus damage in Korea's trade data, Surge in Korea's manufacturing PMI comes to a stop in January

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Chinese manufacturing powers through Beijing's partial lockdown. The hot construction sector in China took a small breather in June. Unemployment in Japan is on track to breach the 3% mark for the first time since 2017. No immediate relief for Japanese industry from the withdrawal of the state of emergency. There is light at the end of the tunnel for the downturn in Korean industry.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: The HICP core rate appears to be returning to its trend of about 1.5%

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Boosted by sharp rebound in services inflation.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Consensus-beating March PMI merely underscores how bad February was... the economy isn't out of the woods. The non-manufacturing bounce was broad-based, but construction led the way. Japan's job openings plunge shows the direction of travel for unemployment. Japan's retail sales suggest Q1 pain to be concentrated in March. Japan inc granted a last month of reprieve before the Covid-19 storm hits. Korean carmakers' sourcing woes largely to blame for February hit.

9 July 2018 May GDP Data will have the Final Word on an August Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

Mark Carney revealed last week that recent data had given him "greater confidence" that the weakness of Q1 GDP was almost entirely due to severe weather.

9 January 2019 Germany Likely was in Recession in H2 2018 Will Markets Care (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's manufacturing data in Germany provided alarming evidence of a much more severe slowdown in the second half of last year than economists had initially expected.

8 Jan 2020 Improving External Conditions Add to Colombia's Economic Resilience (Publication Centre)

Colombia was the fastest growing LatAm economy in 2019, due mostly to strong domestic demand, offsetting a sharp fall in key exports.

8 Jan 2020 Will EZ Inflation be Higher, and Stickier, than Markets Expect (Publication Centre)

The ink has hardly dried on economists' and the ECB's inflation projections for 2020, but we suspect that some forecasters are already considering ripping up the script.

8 July 2019 Incomplete Rebound in GDP in May to Confirm Stagnation Likely in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Odds-on, the consensus forecast for May's GDP report, released on Wednesday, will miss the mark.

8 October 2018 German Manufacturing Export Orders Probably Bottomed in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Friday's factory orders report in Germany provided a bit of relief amid the gloom in manufacturing.

8 Aug 2019 June GDP to Reassure that the Economy is Avoiding Recession (Publication Centre)

Friday's GDP report should show that the economy narrowly avoided contracting in Q2.

8 Apr 2020 More Solid Pre-Covid-19 Data in the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

Hard data in the Eurozone continue to tell a story of a relatively bright pre-Covid-19 world.

8 April 2019 The Plot Thickens in Germany's Manufacturing Data (Publication Centre)

Last week's manufacturing data in Germany left investors with more questions than answers.

9 Apr. 2015 German Manufacturing sector remains relatively subdued (Publication Centre)

The combination of upbeat survey data and solid consumer spending numbers indicate that the German economy is in good shape. But manufacturing data continue to disappoint; factory orders fell 0.9% month-to-month in February, equivalent to a 1.3% decline year-over-year.

8 September. 2016 The ECB Will Extend QE Today (Publication Centre)

Markets are looking for the ECB to extend QE today, and we think they will get their way. We expect the central bank to prolong the program by six months, to September 2017, and to maintain the pace of monthly purchases at €80B per month.

8 October 2018 Bright Spots, and Some Warning Signs, in Japan's Wage Data (Publication Centre)

Japan's average monthly labour earnings growth tumbled to 0.9% year-over-year in August, from 1.6% in July. This is not a disaster.

8 Oct 2019 A Few Bright Spots in the Still- Weak German New Orders Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's manufacturing data in Germany were poor, but not as weak as implied by the headline.

8 June. 2016 EZ Domestic Demand Rose Solidly in Q1, but Will Slow in Q2 (Publication Centre)

The third estimate of euro area growth in the first quarter provides clear evidence that measuring GDP is not an exact science. Real GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, accelerating from 0.4% in Q4. This latest estimate is higher than the previous estimate, 0.5%, but in line with the first calculation. Eurostat and all the large Eurozone economies now provide early estimates of GDP, before data for the full quarter is available.

8 March 2019 Business and Consumer Sentiment in Stark Contrast Who's Right (Publication Centre)

Consumer sentiment in Mexico continues to improve, consistent with tailwinds from the relatively strong labour market and the president's rising approval ratings.

8 March 2019 January's GDP Report to Reassure that Recession Risks Remain Low (Publication Centre)

The sharp 0.4% month-to-month fall in GDP in December and the slump in the Markit/CIPS PMIs towards 50 have created the impression the economy is on the cusp of recession.

8 May 2019 Manufacturing in Germany is Not Out of the Woods Yet (Publication Centre)

Demand in German manufacturing rebounded slightly at the end of Q1, though the overall picture for the sector remains grim.

8 June. 2016 Colombia's Inflation Picture Still Ugly, but it Will Improve (Publication Centre)

Brazil's interim government has been trying to put the kibosh on the vicious circle of recession, capital outflows, and political pandering that has dogged the country for so long. In his first few weeks at the helm, despite the political turmoil, Mr. Temer has started to tackle Brazil's fiscal mess, the country's biggest headache.

8 June 2020 Diving into China's Uneven Bounce, and India's Evolving Covid Strategy (Publication Centre)

China's post-Covid-19 economic recovery is becoming increasingly undeniable. But the more relevant questions now are the speed of its revival, and whether there are still any low-hanging fruit to pick.

8 Nov 2019 Inflation in Brazil Supports a Dovish BCB, Mexican Capex Rebounded (Publication Centre)

Headline inflation in Brazil remained low in October, and even breached the lower bound of the BCB's target range.

8 July 2020 German Manufacturing Remained Tepid in May, was June Better (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's manufacturing data in Germany followed the lead from Monday's relatively underwhelming new orders report; see here.

8 June 2018 Did German Manufacturers Take a Long Break in Q1 and Q2? (Publication Centre)

New orders data increasingly suggest that German manufacturers all but shut their production lines at the start of the year.

8 June 2020 Germany is on Track to Shrug Off Covid-19 in Relative Style (Publication Centre)

Friday's manufacturing data in Germany weren't pretty, but fortunately, the report is old news. Factory orders crashed by 25.8% month-to-month in April, extending the slide from a revised 15.4% fall in March.

8 Apr 2020 February GDP Data to Show Little Pre-Virus Momentum (Publication Centre)

February's GDP report, released on Thursday, likely will show that the economy continued to struggle for momentum, despite the fillip to sentiment stemming from the general election.

7 September 2018 First Signs of EM Weakness in the Eurozone Hard Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's manufacturing data in German threw off a nasty surprise.

7 Feb 2020 A Weak Economy Could Challenge COPOM's View that Easing is Over (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian central bank cut the benchmark Selic interest rate by 25bp, to 4.25%, on Wednesday night, as expected.

7 Feb 2020 Coronavirus Could be near-$100B Hit to Chinese GDP in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Nobody knows the damage China's virus- containment efforts will have on GDP, and we probably never will, for sure, given the opacity of the statistics.

7 Jan 2020 Chile's Economic Upturn Stuttered in Q4, Risks to Growth are Stabilizing (Publication Centre)

Chile's near-term economic outlook is still negative, but clouds have been gradually dispersing since late Q4, due mostly to better news on the global trade front, China's improving economic prospects, and rising copper prices.

7 Jan 2020 The Eurozone Services Sector is Still Holding its Own (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone were solid across the board.

9 Dec 2019 The Consensus Looks too Downbeat on October GDP (Publication Centre)

The release of October's GDP report on Tuesday likely will be overshadowed by campaigning ahead of Thursday's general election.

9 Jan 2020 Guess What, Manufacturing in Germany Remained Weak in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The German manufacturing sector appears to have settled into an equilibrium of sustained misery.

7 December 2018 German Manufacturing is Recovering, but Watch Out for Base Effects in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The tepid recovery in German manufacturing continued in at the start of Q4. Factory orders edged higher by 0.3% month-to-month in October, boosted by a 2.9% month-to-month increase in export orders, primarily for capital and intermediate goods in other EZ economies.

9 January 2018 Ignore November Dip in German Factory Orders Trend is Still Rising (Publication Centre)

The upturn in German manufacturing orders waned slightly towards the end of 2017; factory orders fell 0.4% month-to-month in November.

9 January 2017 The Eurozone Economy Likely Finished 2016 With a Bang (Publication Centre)

The slew of EZ economic data on Friday supports our view that the economy ended 2016. The Commission's economic sentiment index jumped to 107.8 in December from a revised 106.6 in November. The headline strength was due to a big increase in "business climate indicator" and higher consumer sentiment. In individual countries, solid numbers for German construction and French services sentiment were the stand-out details.

7 December 2018 GDP to Stagnate Again in October, but Markets are Braced for the Worst (Publication Centre)

October's GDP report, released on Monday, might just manage to break through the wall of noise coming from parliament ahead of the key Brexit vote on Tuesday.

7 July 2017 The Soft and Hard Data Divide Persists in German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

The hard numbers in Eurozone manufacturing continue to lag the sharp rise in the main surveys. Data yesterday showed that German factory orders rose 1.0% month-to-month in May, only partially rebounding from a downwardly revised 2.2% plunge in April.

7 July 2020 A Meagre Post-Lockdown Rise in German Manufacturing Output? (Publication Centre)

Last week we reported on the V-shaped recovery in German retail sales--see here--as lockdowns ended mid- way through Q2.

9 August. 2016 London Will Continue to Bear the Brunt of the Downturn (Publication Centre)

London has been the U.K.'s growth star for the last two decades. Between 1997 and 2014, yearover-year growth in nominal Gross Value Added averaged 5.4% in London, greatly exceeding the 4% rate across the rest of the country. Surveys since the referendum, however, indicate that the capital is at the sharp end of the post-referendum downturn.

7 Sept. 2015 Mexico's Recovery In Place But Constrained By External Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Growth momentum in Mexico has improved marginally over the last few months after the soft patch during the first quarter, with business and households gaining confidence in the economic recovery. But the upswing has been rather modest, due to the volatility in global financial markets and the challenging external environment. The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated over recent months due to China's problems, and commodity prices remain under pressure. All these factors are now weighing on investors' confidence and hurting EM across asset classes.

9 August 2018 June GDP Data to Show Economy has Little Underlying Momentum (Publication Centre)

Investors with long sterling positions should not pin their hopes on Friday's GDP report to reverse some of the losses endured over the last week.

9 April 2019 February GDP Data to Show Growth only Slightly Below Trend in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Economic data have yielded the limelight in recent months to Brexit news and, alas, we doubt that February's GDP data, released on Wednesday, will reclaim investors' attention.

7 Oct 2019 After the RBI's Fifth Rate Cut, Food Prices will Force a December Pause (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted unanimously on Friday to cut interest rates at a fifth straight meeting, as expected.

9 Dec 2019 Germany's Economy is Still Either in, or Very Close to, Recession (Publication Centre)

The hard data in Germany took a turn for the worse at the start of Q4. The outlook for consumers' spending was dented by the October plunge in retail sales--see here-- and on Friday, the misery spilled over into manufacturing.

7 July. 2016 German Manufacturing Likely Slipped in the Second Quarter (Publication Centre)

German factory orders struggled in the second quarter. New orders were unchanged month-to-month in May, a poor headline following the revised 1.9% plunge in April. The year-over-year rate rose to -0.2%, from a revised -0.4% in April. The month-to-month rate was depressed by a big fall in domestic orders, which offset a rise in export orders.

7 Nov 2019 GDP Likely Was Little Changed in September, Rounding off a Solid Q3 (Publication Centre)

The economic data calendar for next week is so congested that we need to preview early September's GDP report, released on Monday.

9 Dec 2019 Inflation is Ending the Year at a Comfortable Rate, but Threats Loom (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday showed that November inflation was in line with, or below, expectations in Brazil, Colombia and Chile.

6 July 2018 Finally, a Bit of Good News in German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Demand in German manufacturing rebounded strongly midway through the second quarter.

6 Jan 2020 The Mexican Economy will Resume Growth, but Modestly (Publication Centre)

The economic calendar in Mexico was relatively quiet over Christmas, and broadly conformed to our expectations of poor economic activity in Q4.

30 January 2019 A Mixed Bag of PMI Readings in China won't Put Off Fresh Stimulus (Publication Centre)

China's official PMIs for January, due out tomorrow, will give the first indications of how the economy started the year.

30 July 2018 Do Rising Tokyo CPI Housing Costs Matter for the BoJ's July Meeting? (Publication Centre)

Tokyo inflation surprised us on Friday, rising to 0.9% in July, from 0.6% in June.

30 July 2018 Mexican Data are Upbeat, Strong Retail Sales and Low Unemployment (Publication Centre)

Economic data in Mexico continue to come in strong.

30 July 2019 Data released last week confirmed that economic activity improved significantly in Argentina in Q2. (Publication Centre)

Argentina's Recession Has Ended, Supporting Mr. Macri's Odds

30 Jan. 2015 Plunging Oil Prices Boost Chile's Consumers - Businesses Still Weak (Publication Centre)

Chile's economy is showing the first reliable signs of improvement, at last. December retail sales rose 1.9% year-over-year, up from 0.4% in November, indicating that household expenditure is starting to revive, in line with a pick-up in consumer confidence and the improving labor market.

30 Jan 2020 Coronavirus Raises the Risks of a Technical Recession in Japan (Publication Centre)

Japan is one of the countries most exposed to economic damage from the coronavirus.

3 Sept 2019 Andean Economies Start Q3 on a Good Note, Argentina on the Brink (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday show that the Chilean economy had a weak start to the second half of the year.

30 April 2019 Focus on Accelerating M1 Growth amid Still-Poor Survey Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic numbers in the Eurozone were mixed, but we are inclined to see them through rose-tinted glasses.

30 Aug 2019 Markets are Underestimating the Risk of Higher Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Markets remain convinced that the U.S. faces no meaningful inflation risk for the foreseeable future.

30 Aug 2019 Trade Spats are Starting to Hurt Business Sentiment in Korea (Publication Centre)

The recent spate of manufacturing business survey indices from Korea show that sentiment is deteriorating in the wake of its trade spat with Japan and the re-intensification of U.S.-China tensions.

30 June 2020 Spending in Japan is Stabilising, a Proper Recovery is a Long Way Off (Publication Centre)

Retail sales in Japan rose modestly in May, after collapsing in March and April, as the government tried to put a lid on the country's Covid-19 outbreak.

30 November 2017 A Strong Start to Fourth Quarter Consumption, Probably (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of third quarter consumers' spending was revised up by 0.3 percentage point to 3.3% in the national accounts released yesterday.

31 October 2017 The Mexican Economy Remained Resilient in Q3, Despite Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Today's advance Q3 GDP report for Mexico will show that the economy performed relatively well at the start of the second half, despite external and domestic shocks.

4 April 2017 Sterling's Depreciation is a Mixed Blessing for Manufacturers (Publication Centre)

The latest Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey has dashed hopes that sterling's depreciation and the pickup in global trade will facilitate strong growth in U.K. production this year. The PMI dropped to 54.2 in March, from 54.6 in February.

4 Aug 2020 Chile's Economic Recovery Started Strongly in June, Despite the Virus (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent days confirmed the intensity of the Covid-related shock to the Chilean economy in Q2.

4 Aug 2020 EZ Manufacturing is Growing Again, from a Very Low Base (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final EZ manufacturing PMIs for July extended the run of gains since the nadir during lockdown.

31 July 2019 The Bank of Japan Snubs the Doves, with its Options Knowingly Limited (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's BoJ statement, outlook and press conference raised our conviction on two key aspects of the policy outlook.

31 Jan 2020 Services Output Supported a Weakening Mexican Economy in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of full-year 2019 GDP in Mexico confirmed that growth was extremely poor, due to domestic and external shocks.

30 Oct 2019 BoJ Forecasts Due for a Downgrade, Expect a Package of Measures (Publication Centre)

Markets see a strong possibility, though not a probability, that the BoJ will cut rates on Thursday.

30 Oct 2019 Copom to Cut Further, Politics Allows some Room for Manoeuvre (Publication Centre)

The news in Brazil on inflation and politics has been relatively positive in recent weeks, allowing policymakers to keep cutting interest rates to boost the stuttering recovery.

31 August 2018 Andean Economies Remain Strong, but External Threats are Significant (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday show that the Chilean economy had a weak start to the second half of the year.

31 Jan 2020 Ignore Korea's Upbeat Surveys: a Coronavirus Hit is Looming (Publication Centre)

The Bank of Korea's two main monthly economic surveys were very perky in January.

3 Sept 2019 If China Doesn't Budge as Tariffs Rise, Mr. Trump will Blink, Eventually (Publication Centre)

After a week--yes, a whole week!--with no significant new developments in the trade war with China--it's worth stepping back and asking a couple of fundamental questions, which might give us some clues as to what will happen over the months ahead.

3 October 2017 Robust Overseas Demand Isn't Persuading Manufacturers to Invest (Publication Centre)

U.K. manufacturers are benefiting from rapid growth in the Eurozone, but increasingly they are being held back by weak domestic demand.

3 Dec. 2014 Colombia's Central Bank Will Remain Neutral in H1 Nex t Year (Publication Centre)

Colombia's central bank--Banrep--decided last Friday to leave its benchmark interest rate at 4.5% for the third consecutive month, concerned by the slowdown in oil prices, which is affecting economic activity in the fastest growing economy in the region.

3 December 2018 March 29 Is Not an Immovable Deadline for Brexit (Publication Centre)

Both the E.U. and the U.K. government have been keen to emphasise, since the Withdrawal Agreement was provisionally signed off, that March 29 is a hard deadline for Brexit.

3 Feb 2020 China's January Survey Data Imply Weakness before the Virus Hit (Publication Centre)

The official PMIs suggest that the January survey data have escaped the worst of the hit from the virus.

3 Jan 2020 Korean Two-Way Trade Ends 2019 on a High Note, Salvaging Q4 (Publication Centre)

Korean trade ended the year strongly, salvaging what was shaping up as a dull fourth quarter for the economy.

3 Dec 2019 Tariffs on Steel Aluminium Highlight Downside Risks for LatAm (Publication Centre)

President Trump tweeted yesterday that he wants to re-introduce tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Brazil and Argentina, after accusing these economies of intentionally devaluing their currencies, hurting the competitiveness of U.S. farmers.

3 Dec 2019 A Look at the Bright Side in the EZ Manufacturing PMIs (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs confirmed that the headline index in the euro area rebounded further last month.

3 Apr 2020 Markets are Stabilizing, but Incoming Data will Confirm a Deep Recession (Publication Centre)

LatAm financial and FX markets have behaved relatively well in recent sessions, thanks to the array of monetary and fiscal measures taken to counter the severe risk-off environment.

3 April 2017 Brazil's Labour Market is Still Poor, but Likely Will Stabilize Soon (Publication Centre)

Economic data released on Friday underscored our view that bolder rate cuts in Brazil are looming. The BCB's latest BCB's inflation report, released on Thursday, showed that policymakers now see conditions in place to increase the pace of easing "moderately" .

3 April 2017 Expect Strength in Both the ISM and Construction Data Today (Publication Centre)

We'd be very surprised to see a material weakening in today's March ISM manufacturing survey. The regional reports released in recent weeks point to another reading in the high 50s, with a further advance from February's 57.7 a real possibility.

3 April 2018 GDP Growth in the Eurozone is Slowing, but Not Collapsing (Publication Centre)

The economic data in the Eurozone were mixed while we were away.

3 Jan 2020 LatAm Prospects are Gradually Improving as Trade Tensions Ease (Publication Centre)

The data in LatAm were all over the map while we were out.

3 Jan 2020 More Soft EZ Manufacturing Data, but Markets Don't Care Anymore (Publication Centre)

The first economic report of 2020 confirmed the main story in the euro area last year; namely a recession in manufacturing.

3 July 2020 Have Consumers Saved Korea from a Technical Recession (Publication Centre)

The end of Korea's first Covid-19 wave, coupled with the government's economic support measures, has been a boon for the retail industry.

3 July 2020 We're Now Slightly Less Optimistic about Inventories in the EZ (Publication Centre)

This week's economic reports have provided clear, and uplifting, evidence that EZ consumers came out swinging as lockdowns were lifted.

3 November 2017 The EZ Manufacturing Sector is in No Mood for a Slowdown (Publication Centre)

Survey data signal that Eurozone manufacturing retained momentum at the start of Q4. Yesterday's final PMI reports showed that the EZ manufacturing index rose to 58.5 in October from 58.1 in September, trivially below the first estimate.

3 October 2017 EZ Manufacturing is Helping to Propel the Cyclical Upturn (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in the Eurozone remained a strong driver of GDP growth in the third quarter. The headline EZ manufacturing PMI rose to 58.1 in September, from 57.4 in August, only a tenth below the initial estimate 58.2.

3 July 2020 BanRep Slows the Pace of Rate Cuts, Despite Record High Unemployment (Publication Centre)

Data released over the last few weeks have confirmed that Colombia's economic performance in Q2 was grim, adding weight to our below-consensus GDP forecast.

3 July 2018 The EZ Economic Reform Agenda Lives to Fight Another Day (Publication Centre)

Last week's EU summit was an exercise in political pragmatism rather than the bold step forward on reforms that investors had been hoping for.

3 January 2018 See no Evil, Hear no Evil in Eurozone Manufacturing? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone manufacturing sector finished 2017 on a strong note. The headline PMI increased to a cyclical high of 60.6 in December, from 60.1 in November, in line with the initial estimate.

3 January 2018 Synchronized Recovery in the Andes. Inflation Continues to Fall (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent weeks have confirmed that the Andean economies retained a degree of momentum in Q4, with inflation well under con trol.

3 January 2019 No Respite for Eurozone Manufacturing at the end of 2018 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's sole economic report in the Eurozone confirmed that the economy slowed further at the end of 2018.

4 Aug 2020 Manufacturing is Recovering, but it has not Recovered (Publication Centre)

Under normal circumstances, sustained ISM manufacturing readings around the July level, 54.2, would be consistent with GDP growth of about 2% year-over-year.

4 Dec 2019 EURUSD is Poised to Move, The Case for a Rise is Strengthening (Publication Centre)

Implied volatility on the euro is now so low that we're compelled to write about it, mainly because we think the macroeconomic data are hinting where the euro goes next.

5 June 2018. Chile's Recovery Continues, GDP Soared in the First Half of the Year (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirmed the strength of the economic recovery in Chile, and we expect further good news in the next three-to-six months.

5 June 2019 Good Economic and Political News in Brazil Is the Outlook Improving (Publication Centre)

The week started well for Brazil's President Bolsonaro.

5 March 2019 The PPI is the Final Shoe to Drop in the EZ from Chinese Weakness (Publication Centre)

The economic slowdown in China is old news for Eurozone investors.

5 May 2020 Chile Shows First Signs of the Covid-19 Hit, More Pain to Come (Publication Centre)

The recent March economic activity reports for Chile have been terrible, showing the first signs of the Covid-19 shock, and worse is to come.

5 July 2017 Cyclical Improvement in Brazil's Trade Balance is Nearly Over (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external position continue to improve, but we are sticking to our view that further significant gains are unlikely in the second half, given the stronger BRL. For now, though, we still see some momentum, with the unadjusted trade surplus increasing to USD7.2B in June, up from USD4.0B a year earlier. Exports surged 24% year-over-year but imports rose only 3%.

5 February 2019 Where is the Evidence of a Pick-up in China's Household Sector (Publication Centre)

The Caixin services PMI ticked down to 53.6 in January, from 53.9 in December.

5 April 2019 The RBI is Playing with Fire Inflation Will Soon Rear its Ugly Head (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India lowered the benchmark repurchase rate by another 25 basis points yesterday, to 6.00%, as widely expected.

5 Dec 2019 Growth in EZ Services Activity is Slowing, but Not Crashing (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data showed that the euro area PMIs were a bit stronger than initially estimated in November.

5 December 2016 Mexico's PMIs Fell in November, Q4 GDP Outlook is Poor (Publication Centre)

The MXN came under pressure last week as news broke that Banxico Governor Agustin Carstens plans to resign next year. Mr. Carstens has led the bank since 2010; during his term, Banxico cut interest rates to record low levels and managed to keep inflation under control.

5 Feb 2020 BoJ Reaction to the Coronavirus Could Damage Activity, Perversely (Publication Centre)

We've previously highlighted the pro-cyclical elements of the BoJ's framework, but it's worth repeating, when an economic shock comes along.

5 May 2020 EZ Manufacturing Crashed and Burned at the Start of Q2 (Publication Centre)

Services will bear the brunt of the Covid-19 shock in the euro area, but manufacturing is not far behind.

5 Nov 2019 Chilean Private Demand will Slow in Q4, Rising Exports will Ease the Pain (Publication Centre)

Economic conditions are deteriorating rapidly in Chile, despite the relatively decent Imacec reading for Q3.

6 Dec 2019 EZ Households Stood Tall in Q3, Is the Trend in Consumption Rising (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed Q3 growth data in the Eurozone offered no surprises in terms of the headline.

6 Feb 2020 Korea's Trade Data for January Show a Modest Virus Hit, For Now (Publication Centre)

Korea's trade data for January provided the first real glimpse of the potential hit to international flows from the disruptions caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus.

6 Feb. 2015 Chilean Growth Is Improving, But China's Slowdown Is A Worry (Publication Centre)

Chilean GDP growth hit bottom in August, but activity is now picking up and will gather speed over the coming quarters. The tailwinds from lower oil prices and fiscal stimulus will soon be visible in the activity data.

6 Jan 2020 Risks are Tilted to the Upside for this Week's EZ Inflation Data (Publication Centre)

Friday's early EZ CPI data for December were red hot. Headline HICP inflation in Germany jumped to 1.5%, from 1.3% in November, while the headline rate in France increased by 0.4pp, to 1.6%.

5 October 2018 EZ Three EZ Data-Points to Watch in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Markets tend to take an eclectic view on macroeconomic data in the Eurozone.

8 Nov 2019 About that German Recession in Q2 and Q3...It's is a Very Close Call (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in Germany endured another miserable quarter in Q3.

5 Nov 2019 No Relief for Manufacturing in the Eurozone at the Start of Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs for October were grim, but they told investors nothing they don't already know.

5 Nov. 2015 A Rebound in German New Orders? But the Trend is Subdued (Publication Centre)

Factory orders in Germany probably jumped in September, following a string of losses in the beginning of Q3. We think new orders rose 1.0% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate slightly lower, to 1.8% from 2.0% in August. A rebound in non- Eurozone export orders likely will be the key driver of the monthly gain, following a 14.8% cumulative plunge in the previous two months. The rise will be concentrated in capital and consumer goods, and should be enough to offset a fall in export orders within the euro area. Our forecast is consistent with new orders falling 2.0% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, partly reversing the 3.0% surge in the second quarter, and raising downside risks for production in Q4.

5 November 2018 Taking Stock of the Outlook after a Newsworthy Week (Publication Centre)

News last week increased our conviction that the economy will struggle over the coming months, but then will have a spring in its step next year.

5 April 2019 German Manufacturers are Reliving the Horrors of 2008 (Publication Centre)

We have been telling an upbeat story about the EZ economy in recent Monitors, emphasizing solid services and consumers' spending data.

4 September 2018 EZ Manufacturing PMIs are Soft, but Base Effects will Lift Q3 data (Publication Centre)

Survey data in EZ manufacturing remain soft. Yesterday's final PMI report for August confirmed that the index dipped to 54.6 in August, from 55.1 in July, reaching its lowest point since the end of 2016.

4 Feb. 2015 Divergent Manufacturing Stories in LatAm's Biggest Economies (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing indexes for January showed a small improvement for the biggest economies in LatAm: Brazil and Mexico. In Brazil, the PMI manufacturing index increased marginally to 50.7 in December from 50.2 in November, thanks to stronger output and new orders components, which rose together for the first time in ten months.

4 January 2017 Stronger Surveys Should Not Foster Optimism about Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

A cluster of surveys suggest that the manufacturing sector finished 2016 with a flourish, after a dismal performance for most of the year. But momentum will drain away from the sector's recovery in 2017, as higher oil prices make low value-added work unprofitable again and resurgent inflation causes domestic consumer demand to crumble.

4 January 2019 Mexican Economic Growth Will Continue, but at a Very Modest Pace (Publication Centre)

The economic calendar in Mexico was relatively quiet over Christmas, and broadly conformed to our expectations of resilient economic activity in Q4.

4 June 2019 Dark Clouds Still Linger Over Manufacturing in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The most positive thing to say about the EZ manufacturing PMI at the moment is that it has stopped falling.

4 Feb 2020 Focus on the (Publication Centre)

The near-term performance for EZ manufacturing will be a tug-of-war between positive technical factors, and a still-poor fundamental outlook.

4 Feb 2020 Early PBoC Rate Cut Confirms Official Worry Over Virus fallout (Publication Centre)

The PBoC yesterday cut its 7-day and 14-day reverse repo rate by 10bp, to 2.40% and 2.55% respectively, while injecting RMB 1.2T through open market operations.

4 Dec 2019 GDP Growth Will Rise in Brazil Next Year, but External Risk is Looming (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday confirm that Brazil's recovery has continued over the second half of the year, supported by steady capex growth and rebounding household consumption.

4 December 2017 No End in Sight to Upturn in EZ Manufacturing PMI? (Publication Centre)

The upside to manufacturing survey data in the Eurozone appears endless.

4 December 2018 Eurozone Markets Want to Believe in the U.S.-China Trade Truce (Publication Centre)

The 90-day truce in the trade wars between the U.S. and China, brokered on Saturday at the G20 meeting in Argentina, is a big deal for financial markets in the euro area, at least in the near term.

4 Feb 2020 Coronavirus will Keep Policymakers in the Andes on the Sidelines (Publication Centre)

Colombia's central bank has found a relatively sweet spot.

4 June 2019 More Negative News for the Andes Economies, due to Trade Tensions (Publication Centre)

Economic prospects in the Andes have deteriorated significantly in recent weeks, due mainly to the escalation of the trade war.

4 June 2020 Don't Set Store by India's Q1 GDP Surprise, no Bullet was Dodged (Publication Centre)

India's consensus-beating GDP report for the first quarter wasn't much to write home about.

4 May 2020 Korea's First Deficit in Eight Years Presages the Trade-Driven Q2 Hit (Publication Centre)

Korean exports hit a brick wall in April, unsurprisingly, as lockdowns across the non- China world dealt a body blow to demand.

4 October 2017 Survey Data Suggest Recoveries in Brazil and Mexico are on Track (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian economy has been recovering at a decent pace in recent months. The labor market is on the mend, with the unemploymen t rate falling rapidly to 12.5% in August from 14% at the end of Q1.

4 October 2018 Japan Looks Set for a Weak Q3 Unsurprising After the Q2 Leap (Publication Centre)

Japan's real GDP seems unlikely to have risen in Q3, and could even have edge down quarter-on- quarter, after the 0.7% leap in Q2.

4 Sept. 2015 Brazil Ends the Tightening Cycle as Deep Recession Takes Hold (Publication Centre)

The monetary policy committee--Copom--of the BCB kept Brazil's main interest rate on hold at 14.25% at its Wednesday meeting. After seven consecutive increases since October 2014, totaling 325bp, policymakers brought the tightening cycle to an end. They are alarmed at the depth of the recession, even though inflation remains too high and public finances are collapsing.

4 May 2017 Strong Q1 GDP Data in the EZ, but the Annualised Trend is not 2% (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone enjoyed a strong start to 2017. Yesterday's advance data showed that real GDP rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, a similar pace to Q4, which was revised up by 0.1 percentage points. The year-over-year rate dipped to 1.7%, from an upwardly revised 1.8% in Q4.

4 March 2019 The EZ Core CPI Rate Remains Motionless at About 1% (Publication Centre)

Last week's final barrage of data showed that EZ headline inflation rose slightly last month, by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5%, driven mainly by increases in the unprocessed food energy components.

4 Mar 2020 Revisions Aside, India's Q4 GDP isn't Worrying, nor is the Virus Risk (Publication Centre)

India's GDP report for the fourth quarter surprised to the upside, with the economy growing by 4.7% year-over-year, against the Bloomberg median forecast of 4.5%.

4 Mar. 2015 Brazil's Central Bank Set to Respond As Inflation Fails to Slow (Publication Centre)

Brazil is now paying the price of President Rousseff's first term, which was characterized by unaffordable expansionary policies. As a result, inflation is now trending higher, forcing the BCB to tighten at a more aggressive pace than initially intended--or expected by investors--depressing business and investment confidence.

4 March 2019 No Light at the End of the Tunnel for Japan's Softening Labour Market (Publication Centre)

Japan's jobless rate inched up to 2.5% in January, from 2.4% in December.

29 September 2016 What to Look Out for During Friday's Data Deluge (Publication Centre)

The estimate of services output for the first month of the current quarter usually gets lost among the deluge of national accounts and balance of payments data released for the previous quarter.

13 Jan 2020 Mexico's Weak Economic Activity Will Push Core Inflation Down (Publication Centre)

Thursday's CPI report in Mexico showed that inflation is edging lower. We are confident that it will continue to fall consistently during Q1, thanks chiefly to the subpar economic recovery, low inertia and the effect of the recent MXN rebound.

12 Feb 2020 Powell Sticks to the Line, Current Policy is "Appropriate" (Publication Centre)

Chair Powell broke no new ground in his semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony yesterday, repeating the Fed's new core view that the current stance of policy is "appropriate".

12 Feb. 2015 Still waiting for growth in Italy (Publication Centre)

In yesterday's Monitor, we lamented the lack of growth in the French economy. The outlook is not much brighter in Italy. We think Italian GDP was unchanged quarter-on-quarter in Q4, slightly better than the -0.1% consensus but still very soft.

12 June 2019 Markets Having Cake and Eating it will be Caught out by the BoJ (Publication Centre)

Central bankers globally are full of market- appeasing but conditional statements.

19 March 2019 Don't get Used to a Japanese Trade Surplus Just Yet (Publication Centre)

Japan's adjusted trade balance flipped back to a modest surplus of ¥116B in February, after seven straight months of deficit.

12 Dec. 2014 Mexico's Data have been Upbeat but Downside Risks are Growing (Publication Centre)

Recent Mexican data have been upbeat, supporting our view that a gradual recovery is underway. In the key auto sector, for example, production increased 11.4% year-over-year in November, while exports rose 5.8% year-over-year in October.

12 April 2019 Inflation in Brazil Jumped in Q1, but Temporary Factors are to Blame (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil surprised to the upside this week, with a sharp rebound that looks alarming at face value.

12 Aug 2019 Q2's GDP Drop is an Inventory-Driven Blip, Growth will Spring Back in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Q2's GDP figures create a terrible first impression, but a closer look suggests that the risk of a recession remains very low.

12 August. 2016 Brazil's Inflation Stubbornly High, but Temporary Pressures Will Ease (Publication Centre)

Brazil's benchmark inflation index, the IPCA, rose 0.5% unadjusted month-to-month in July, pushing the year-over-year rate down marginally to 8.7%, from 8.8% in June. Overall inflation pressures in Brazil are easing, especially in regulated prices, which have been the main driver of the disinflation trend this year. But market-set prices are still causing problems.

12 Mar 2020 The ECB will Deliver, a Rate Cut, More QE and TLTROs are Coming (Publication Centre)

The Fed paved the way with a 50bp emergency rate cut on March 3, with more to come.

12 March 2018 January Data Point to Slower GDP Growth in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Last week's official data supported our forecast that GDP growth likely will slow further in Q1, suggesting that a May rate hike is not the sure bet that markets assume.

12 May. 2016 EZ Inflation Expectations are Low, But Will Creep Higher Soon (Publication Centre)

The renewed decline in bond EZ bond yields has raised the question of whether inflation expectations will recover at all in this cycle. We think they will, and we also believe 10-year yields will rise towards 1%-to-1.2% towards the end of the year. But two factors will keep inflation expectations and yields in check in the near term.

12 Nov 2019 China's October Money Data Mean a 2020 GDP Growth Downgrade (Publication Centre)

We have downgraded our 2019 and 2020 China GDP forecasts on previous occasions because monetary conditions have been surprisingly unresponsive to lower short-term rates.

12 Nov 2019 If Trump Chooses to Take the Deal, The Economy will Benefit Quickly (Publication Centre)

If the Phase One trade deal with China is completed, and is accompanied by a significant tariff roll-back, we'll revise up our growth forecasts, but we'll probably lower our near-term inflation forecasts, assuming that the tariff reductions are focused on consumer goods.

12 May 2020 What's to Become of EZ GDP With a Hamstrung Services Sector (Publication Centre)

All major EZ governments are now in the process of lifting lockdowns, but investors should expect less a grand opening, more of a careful tip-toeing.

12 May 2020 India's PMIs Show Lockdown Severity, but New Flexibility will Help (Publication Centre)

India's shocking PMIs for April leave little doubt that the second quarter will be bad enough to result in a full-year contraction in 2020 GDP, even if economic activity recovers strongly in the second half.

12 May 2020 Andean Economies Stand Out for their Solid Response to Covid-19 (Publication Centre)

The Andean countries were quick to implement significant measures in response to the initial stage of the pandemic, adopting a broad range of economic and social policies to ease the effects.

12 May 2020 Downside Risk to April CPI from Rent, Apparel, Airline Fares, Lodging, Autos (Publication Centre)

The 0.1% dip in the core CPI in March was the first outright decline in three years, but we expect another-- and bigger--decline in today's April numbers.

12 Apr. Do Leading Indicators Signal Impending Recession? (Publication Centre)

Another day, another downbeat survey. The British Chamber of Commerce's comprehensive and long-running Quarterly Economic Survey was published yesterday, and it added to evidence of a Q1 slowdown.

11 September 2018 July's Strong-Looking GDP Growth Rate Will Be This Year's Peak (Publication Centre)

Markets rightly interpreted yesterday's above consensus GDP report as having little impact on the outlook for monetary policy.

11 March 2019 Early Evidence Points to Solid EZ Manufacturing Data in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Friday's manufacturing data in the Eurozone were mixed.

11 May 2020 Still No Signs of a Rebound in the EZ, but that Should Change Soon (Publication Centre)

Last week finished as it started, with more depressing economic numbers in the Eurozone, this time from manufacturing in the core economies.

11 Nov 2019 Signs of Stabilisation in Chinese Trade, but don't Get too Excited (Publication Centre)

China's October foreign trade headlines beat expectations, but the year-over-year numbers remain grim, with imports falling 6.4%, only a modest improvement from the 8.5% tumble in September.

11 June 2020 Promising Money Data Imply the PBoC can Take a Step Back (Publication Centre)

The People's Bank of China likely will be more than content with the latest money and credit data, to the point where it probably won't see the need to cut interest rates further anytime soon.

11 June 2020 Anatomy of the Covid-19 Crash in the French Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's sole economic report in the Eurozone closed the book on the initial Covid-19 shock in French manufacturing.

11 June 2018 Production and Labour Market Data will Hit Rate Hike Odds (Publication Centre)

The resolution of tensions in Italy and aboveconsensus U.K. PMIs for May last week persuaded investors that the MPC likely will press on and raise interest rates soon.

11 June 2019 April Data Point to Flat GDP in Q2, But Q3 Will be Much Better (Publication Centre)

April's GDP data give a grim firs t impression, though the details provide reassurance that the economy isn't on the cusp of a recession.

11 Nov 2019 AU.S.-Sino Trade Truce will Help to Offset Domestic LatAm Shocks (Publication Centre)

The apparent thaw in the U.S.-China trade dispute is great news for LatAm, particularly for the Andean economies, which are highly dependent on commodity prices and the health of the world's two largest economies

11 Nov 2019 German Net Exports fell in Q3, but less than in Q2, No recession then (Publication Centre)

Friday's data force us to walk back our recession call for Germany. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose in September, to €19.2B from €18.7B in August, lifted by a 1.5% month-to-month jump in exports, and the previous months' numbers were revised up significantly.

11 October 2018 Weak GDP in August Sets the Tone for the Rest of this Year (Publication Centre)

The stagnation of GDP in August, following five consecutive month-to-month gains, confirms that the economy's momentum in prior months was simply weather-related.

11 October. 2016 German Exports Came Roaring Back in August, After a Weak July (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German trade data showed that the external surplus recovered in August, following its poor start to Q3. The seasonally-adjusted trade surplus rose to €22.2B, from €19.4B in July.

11 September 2017 Will the MPC Step up its Rhetoric to Support the Pound? (Publication Centre)

The key question for the MPC at this week's meeting is whether it is prepared to tolerate the consequences for inflation of sterling's further depreciation since its last meeting in August.

11 October 2017 Weak GDP Growth in Q3 Suggests a November Hike isn't a Done Deal (Publication Centre)

The Office for National Statistics yesterday released the last major batch of output data before the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP is published on October 25, just one week before the MPC's key meeting.

11 October 2017 Hard Data Suggest German GDP Growth Slowed Slightly in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Germany's nominal external surplus rebounded smartly over the summer, but real net trade looks set to be a drag on Q3 GDP growth, again. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus increased to €21.6B in August from a revised €19.3B in July.

11 Oct 2019 Inflation Surprises to the Downside in September: Rate Cuts Loom (Publication Centre)

Recent inflation numbers across the biggest economies in LatAm have surprised to the downside, strengthening the case for further monetary easing.

11 Oct 2019 It's a Close Call, but we Still Think Germany was in Recession in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone were ugly.

12 September 2018 Wage Growth Won't Remain Above 3% this Year, Despite July's Leap (Publication Centre)

It's tempting to conclude that the pick-up in year over-year growth in average weekly wages, excluding bonuses, to a three-year high of 3.1% in July, from 2.8% in June, signals that employees' bargaining power has strengthened and that a sustained wage recovery now is under way.

13 April 2018 French Inflation is Shooting Higher (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in France increased significantly at the start of the year.

13 Nov 2019 Used Car Prices Pose an Upside Threat to the October Core CPI (Publication Centre)

The consensus forecast for the October core CPI, which will be reported today, is 0.2%. Take the over. Nothing is certain in these data, but the risk of a 0.3% print is much higher than the chance of 0.1%.

13 November 2017 German GDP Growth Likely Slowed in Q3, but Trend is Robust (Publication Centre)

Macroeconomic data in the euro area were mixed in our absence.

13 November 2018 Argentina's Cyclical Stabilization Continues 2019 Likely Will be Better (Publication Centre)

The sharp currency sell-off in Q2 and Q3, the financial crisis and tighter monetary and fiscal policies have pushed the Argentinian economy under stress since Q2.

13 Nov 2019 Japan's Pending Stimulus Marks a Return to the Bad Old Days (Publication Centre)

PM Abe last week asked the cabinet to put together a package of measures in a 15-month budget aimed at bolstering GDP growth through productivity enhancement, in addition to the shorter-term goal of disaster recovery.

13 Nov 2019 Chile's Protests Have Trashed the Local Market: will it Rebound Soon? (Publication Centre)

Chile's market volatility and high political risk continue, despite government efforts to ease the crisis.

13 May. 2015 Fed Lift Off Slightly Delayed - Breathing Space for LatAm? (Publication Centre)

The US employment data last week reduced further the likelihood of a June Fed rate increase. In turn, this changes the likely timing of the normalization process in some LatAm economies. Our Chief Economist, Ian Shepherdson, expects the Fed to start its normalization process in July or September; the strength of the employment data will prevent any postponement beyond the third quarter.

13 May. 2016 Brazil's Retail Sector Still Under Pressure - Stabilization in H2, Just? (Publication Centre)

The recession in Brazilian consumers' spending continues, but the severity of the pain is easing. Retail sales plunged 0.9% month-to-month in March, pushing the year-over-rate down to -5.7%, from a revised -4.2% in February. The March headline likely was depressed by the early Easter.

13 Sept 2019 Brazil's Retail Sector Started Q3 Solidly will the Uptrend Continue (Publication Centre)

Brazil's outlook is still improving at the margin, as positive economic signals mix with relatively encouraging political news.

13 Sept 2019 Korea's Jobs Surprise... the Higher they Rise, the Harder they Fall (Publication Centre)

Korea's jobs report for August was a stonker, with unemployment plunging to 3.1%, from 4.0% in July, marking the lowest rate in more than five years.

14 Dec. 2015 Peru's Central Bank Tightens Again to Contain Inflation Pressures (Publication Centre)

Peru's central bank, the BCRP, admitted defeat again in the face of the inflationary effects of the PEN's depreciation and El Niño, increasing interest rates by 25bp to 3.75% last Thursday, following its 25bp increase in September. Peru is the third LatAm economy in the last few months to raise rates in response to currency weakness, despite sluggish economic growth. The key problem for Peru is that inflation has been trending higher since early 2013 and has remained stubbornly high, above 2.8% all this year. "Temporary" factors just keep on coming.

14 Feb 2020 Banxico Cuts Rates, Brazil's Domestic Demand Eased in Q4 (Publication Centre)

It was no surprise that Banxico cut its policy rate by 25bp to 7.00% yesterday, following similar moves in August, September, November and December.

14 Feb 2020 Upticks in Smaller CPI Components and Rent Healthcare Pose Threats (Publication Centre)

The 0.242% increase in the January core CPI left the year-over-year rate at 2.3% for the third straight month.

14 August 2017 China's Slowdown Surprised Japan, Inventories to Boost Q2 GDP (Publication Centre)

Japanese domestic demand probably strengthened in Q2, with both private consumption and fixed investment accelerating. Trade and inventories are the key swing components for GDP growth.

14 August 2017 A Great First Half of 2017 for the EZ Economy, But it Won't Last (Publication Centre)

While we were away, the advance Q2 GDP report in the Eurozone confirmed our expectations of a strong first half of the year for the economy. Real GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, the same pace as in Q1, lifting the year-over-year rate to a cyclical high of 2.1%.

14 Apr 2020 Coronavirus Infections Stabilising in DM, but LatAm is Way Behind (Publication Centre)

Last week, while we were taking our spring break at home, markets behaved relatively well in LatAm.

14 Aug 2019 What is the Core Inflation Rate in Germany We Wish We Knew (Publication Centre)

German inflation data are more noise than signal at the moment.

13 May 2020 Ugly Data in Mexico Continue to Set the Stage for Further Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

More depressing economic numbers in LatAm have been released in recent days, and high frequency data continue to show a near-term bleak outlook.

13 March 2019 Brexit Uncertainty Set to Continue into Q2, but the Economy Can Cope (Publication Centre)

As we go to press, Mrs. May's last-minute scramble to Strasbourg appears to have failed to persuade enough rebels to back the government.

13 Feb 2020 Core CPI Likely Back on Trend, Risks in Rent and Healthcare Persist (Publication Centre)

The underlying trend in the core CPI is rising by just under 0.2% per month, so that has to be the starting point for our January forecast.

13 Feb. 2015 A Tough 2015 Ahead for Brazil as Downside Risks to Growth Intensify (Publication Centre)

Over the last few months we have started to see hard evidence of Brazil's deceleration, and, as we have argued in previous Monitors, the slowdown is now set to become more visible. Over the coming weeks, markets will focus on whether Brazil is already in recession, its likely severity, and how the country will get out of this mess.

13 February 2019 Is the Collapse in the Argentinian Survey and Real Data over (Publication Centre)

We will be paying special attention to the sentiment surveys for Argentina over the coming weeks.

13 Feb 2020 A Double-Dip Recession on the Menu for Italy's in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The fact that Italy's economy is in poor shape will not surprise anyone following the euro area, but the advance Q4 GDP headline was astonishingly poor all the same.

13 December 2018 China's November Activity Data are Set to Disappoint (Publication Centre)

China's October activity data showed signs of the infrastructure stimulus machine sputtering into life. Consensus expectations appear to hold out for a continuation into November, but we think the numbers will be disappointing.

13 Dec 2019 Brazil's Central Bank Leaves the Door Open to a Final Rate Cut in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian central bank cut its benchmark Selic interest rate by 50bp to 4.50% on Wednesday night.

13 Dec 2019 Ms. Lagarde Passes her First Test, but it won't get any Easier (Publication Centre)

The ECB and Ms. Lagarde played it safe yesterday.

13 Jan 2020 Expect Stabilisation, not Recovery, in China's Q4 GDP Data This Week (Publication Centre)

China's GDP report for the fourth quarter, due on Friday, is likely to show that economic growth has stabilised, on the surface.

13 Jan 2020 Labor Market Strength Means no Need for the Fed to Ease this Year (Publication Centre)

Here's the bottom line: U.S. businesses appear to have over-reacted to the impact of the trade war in their responses to most surveys, pointing to a serious downturn in economic growth which has not materialized.

13 Mar 2020 LatAm in Peril as the Virus Drives Markets into Panic Mode (Publication Centre)

LatAm governments and policymakers are bracing for a more dramatic and longer virus-led downturn than initially expected.

13 Mar 2020 Lift from Anti-Covid Jobs in Korea won't Last, the BoK will Cut in April (Publication Centre)

The effects of Covid-19--both negative and positive--on Korea's labour market certainly were felt in February.

13 March 2017 Signs of a Slowdown in Q1 Ease Pressure on the MPC to Hike Rates (Publication Centre)

The MPC's meeting on Thursday looks set to be a perfunctory affair. Signs that the economy has lost momentum this year, alongside downward surprises from CPI inflation in January and wage growth in December, mean the Committee won't give the idea of hiking rates a moment's thought.

13 July 2018 Did Sluggish Manufacturing Hold Back the EZ Economy in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in the Eurozone rebounded midway through the second quarter.

13 July 2018 China's Official Real GDP Growth will Paint a Muddled Picture for Q2 (Publication Centre)

Official, real GDP growth was low in Q1, at 1.4% quarter-on-quarter, down from 1.6% in Q4.

13 Jan. 2016 Even Senior Creditors are Not Safe in the Eurozone Banking Industry (Publication Centre)

Investors in Eurozone banks continue to face uncertain times, despite the ECB's best efforts to prop up the economy and financial markets via QE. The latest hit to confidence comes from the bail-in of selected senior debt in Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo. When the troubled lender was restructured in mid-2014, the equity and junior debt were left in a "bad" bank--and were virtually wiped out--while the deposits and senior debt went into the "good" bank Novo Banco. Senior debt holders expecting to recoup their money, however, were startled earlier this month by the decision to "re-assign" five selected bonds with total face value of €2B from Novo Banco to the bad bank, in effect wiping out the investors.

13 January 2017 BCB to Continue Easing Rapidly, Amid Falling Inflation (Publication Centre)

Brazil's central bank started the year firing on all cylinders. The Copom surprised markets on Wednesday by delivering a bold 75bp rate cut, bringing the Selic rate down to 13.0%. In October and November, the Copom eased by only 25bp, but inflation is now falling rapidly and consistently. The central bank said in its post-meeting communiqué that conditions have helped establish a "new rhythm of easing", assuming inflation expectations hold steady.

11 June 2018 German Construction is Pushing Ahead, Manufacturing is Stalling (Publication Centre)

The bad news in German manufacturing keeps coming thick and fast.

11 June 2018 China's Trade Surplus Should Start Trending up Again Later this Year (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus has been trending down in the last two years.

1 May 2018 China's Manufacturing PMI Points to Reflation Revival Temporarily (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI implies a modest gain in momentum in Q2, at 51.4, compared with 51.0 on average in Q1.

1 May 2019 Uncertainty in Mexico Triggered a Sharp Economic Slowdown in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of Q1 GDP in Mexico confirmed that growth was under severe pressure at the start of the year.

1 May 2020 Mexico's GDP Collapsed in Q1, Even Before the Full Hit From Covid-19 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of Q1 GDP in Mexico confirmed that growth was under severe pressure at the start of the year. GDP fell by 1.6% quarter- on-quarter, the biggest drop since mid-2009, well below market expectations and following a 0.1% drop in Q4.

1 May 2017 Ignore the Weak Q1 GDP Numbers -- they Cannot be Trusted (Publication Centre)

If you apply a seasonal adjustment to a seasonally adjusted series, it shouldn't change. When you apply a seasonal adjustment to the U.S. GDP numbers, they do change. First quarter growth, reported Friday at just 0.7%, goes up to 1.7%, on our estimate.

1 March 2019 Q4 Growth Rescued by Business Spending on IP, but Q1 Set to Soften (Publication Centre)

A quick rebound in growth, after the slowdown to a reported 2.6% in the fourth quarter, is unlikely.

1 March 2017 The Soaring Trade Deficit is set to Constrain First Quarter Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's wall of data told us a bit about where the economy likely is going, and a bit about how it started the first quarter. The January trade and inventory data were disappointing, but the February Chicago PMI and consumer confidence reports were positive.

1 March 2018 The PM's Inevitable Capitulation is Still a Way Off ,Clouding Sterling's Outlook (Publication Centre)

Sterling fell to $1.38, from $1.39, in the hour following the EU's publication of a draft Article 50 withdrawal treaty, which set out the practical consequences of the principles the U.K. agreed to in December.

1 Nov 2019 The Easing Cycle in Brazil is Nearly Over, Chile's Public Chaos Continues (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian Central Bank's policy board-- COPOM--voted unanimously on Wednesday to cut the Selic rate by 50bp to 5.00%, as expected.

1 Nov 2019 The Thought of a Rate Cut Spooks the BoJ into a Parallel Dimension (Publication Centre)

The BoJ yesterday kept the policy balance rate at -0.1%, and the 10-year yield target at "around zero", in line with the consensus.

1 October 2018 The 14-year High in the ISM Likely Can't Hold, Expect a Correction (Publication Centre)

The case for believing that August's unexpected 14-year high in the ISM manufacturing index was a fluke is pretty straightforward, and it has both short and medium-term elements.

10 Apr. 2015 Bond duration in the Eurozone is being crushed by sovereign QE (Publication Centre)

The distortions in European fixed income markets have intensified following the initiation of the ECB's sovereign QE program. In the market for sovereigns, German eight-year bond yields are within a touching distance of falling below zero, and this week Switzerland became the first country ever to issue a 10-year bond with negative yields.

10 April 2018 Q1 was a write-off for the German economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's trade data added to the evidence that momentum in the German economy slowed sharply at the start of the year.

1 October 2018 Data Confirm Softer Q3 in Disaster- Hit Japan, but it's not all Bad News (Publication Centre)

A firmer picture is emerging of how Japan's economy fared in Q3, in light of the latest slew of data for August.

1 Oct 2019 Brazilian Assets Performed Well in Late Q3, Despite High External Risk (Publication Centre)

Brazilian assets were hit in Q3 by global external challenges, while domestic fundamentals gradually improved.

1 November 2017 Will the PMIs Show the Economy Resilient to the Looming Rate Hike? (Publication Centre)

This week's manufacturing, construction and services PMIs for October will demonstrate how well the economy is coping with the prospect of higher interest rates.

1 November 2018 More Trick and Less Treat as the BoJ Leaves Market Hanging (Publication Centre)

The BoJ kept policy unchanged, as expected, at its meeting yesterday.

1 June 2020 The Brazilian Economy Collapsed in Q1, but Much Worse is to Come (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent days have started to reveal a story of horror and misery in the Brazilian economy.

1 June 2020 Abysmal April Sets the Stage for Japan's Nightmare Q2 (Publication Centre)

Japan's main activity data for April were massively disappointing, presaging the sharper GDP contraction we expect in Q2, compared with Q1.

08 Jan. 2016 Colombia's Economic Resilience Will be Challenged - Oil Is Still Key (Publication Centre)

Colombia was likely the fastest growing economy in LatAm in 2015, but it is set to slow this year as monetary and fiscal policy are tightened, and commodity prices remain under pressure during the first half of the year, at least. Economic activity was surprisingly resilient during 2015, especially during the second half, despite the COP's sell-off, high inflation, and subdued consumer confidence.

08 May. 2015 French GDP Next Week Should Comfortably Beat Expectations (Publication Centre)

The headline 0.9% month-to-month increase in German factory orders--a 1.9% increase year-over-year-- is not enough to change the picture of an overall sluggish first quarter.

1 Apr 2020 Brazil and Chile Pre-Covid Data were Solid, but the Good News won't Last (Publication Centre)

Data released this week in LatAm are the last calm before the coronavirus storm.

04 October. 2016 EZ Manufacturing Continues to Punch Above its Weight (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's survey data tell a story of resilient manufacturing in the Eurozone. The headline EZ PMI rose to 52.6 in September, from 51.7 in August, lifted by a rise in new orders to a three-month high.

04 Jan. 2016 While We Were Out... (Publication Centre)

...The data were all over the map, with existing home sales plunging while consumer confidence rose; Chicago-area manufacturing activity plunged but national durable goods were flat; real consumption rose at a decent clip but pending home sales dipped again. Markets, by contrast, are little changed from the week before the holidays. What to make of it all?

03 October. 2016 The Economy's Near-Term Resilience Has Brittle Foundations (Publication Centre)

Last week's official data unequivocally indicated that the Brexit vote has not had a detrimental impact on the economy yet.

04 Feb. 2016 EZ Consumers' Spending Stalled in Q4, but Should Rebound in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday suggest Eurozone consumers' spending rebounded towards the end of Q4. Retail sales rose 0.3% month-to-month in December, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 1.4%, from a revised 1.6% in November. A +0.3 percentage point net revision to the month-to-month data added to the optimism, but was not enough to prevent a slowdown over the quarter as a whole.

1 Apr 2020 Hold Your Horses... A V-Shaped Recovery in China isn't Secured, Yet (Publication Centre)

China's official PMIs for March surprised well to the upside, cheering markets across Asia.

1 Apr. 2015 Tightening Bias Remains as Chile's Inflation Forecast is Increased (Publication Centre)

Chile's economic sector survey, released on Monday, provides further evidence that the cyclical recovery in the economy continues, albeit at a moderate pace. On the demand side, the rebound is still in place, with retail sales jumping 2.0% month-to-month in February and the underlying trend firm.

1 July 2020 Brazil's Job Market is Under Strain, despite a Resilient-looking Headline (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday showed that the labour market in Brazil looks relatively resilient to the collapse in economic activity.

1 July 2020 It's Official... Risks of Covid Clusters Don't Jeopardise China's Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's economy looks to have shrugged off the supposed "second wave" of Covid-19, sparked by a cluster in Beijing's largest wholesale market for fruit and veg, looking at June's PMIs.

1 June 2018 China's PMIs Signal Another Rise in PPI In ation in May (Publication Centre)

The return of Chinese PPI inflation in 2016 helped to stabilise equities after the boom-bust of the previous year.

1 July 2019 Brazil's Inflation Report Opened the Door for Rate Cuts as Early as July (Publication Centre)

Recent economic weakness in Brazil, particularly in domestic demand, and the ongoing deterioration of confidence indicators, have strengthened the case for interest rate cuts.

1 February 2019 It's Official China will Enter PPI Deflation, Though Only Briefly (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI was little changed in January, ticking up to 49.5, from 49.4 in December, with the output and new orders sub-indices largely stable.

1 April 2019 The BCCh Finally Admits that the Economy is not Overshooting (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank left its policy rate on hold last Friday at 3.0%, in line with market expectations, amid easing inflationary pressures and a struggling economy.

1 December 2017 Will the Improvement in Brazil's External Accounts Continue? (Publication Centre)

External conditions continue to favour Brazil. The recovery in domestic demand in the world's major economies, particularly the rebound in business investment, has driven a gradual revival of global exports.

10 April 2019 Headline Data will Hide the Extent of China's Q1 GDP Weakness (Publication Centre)

Official Chinese real GDP growth likely slipped to 6.3% year-over-year in Q1, the lowest on record, from 6.4% in Q4, which matched the trough in the Great Financial Crisis.

10 August 2017 Chinese Producer Price Inflation is Proving Sticky (Publication Centre)

Chinese PPI inflation was unchanged at 5.5% in July; it had been expected to rise modestly. Officially, inflation peaked at 7.8% in February, but we think this peak was artificially high, thanks to seasonal effects. The slowing in PPI inflation since the peak appears to suggest that monthly price gains have slowed sharply. We find little evidence to support this.

11 April 2019 Above-Trend GDP Growth in Q1 Puts the Spotlight Back on the MPC (Publication Centre)

The economy has remained remarkably resilient in the face of intense political uncertainty.

11 April 2019 Mr. Draghi Kicks the Can on TLTROs and a Tiered Deposit Rate (Publication Centre)

The ECB made no changes to its policy stance yesterday.

11 Dec 2019 French Manufacturing is Headed for a Soft Q4, Despite a Solid Start (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in France remained on the front foot at the start of Q4.

11 April 2018 Sanctions against Russia are a mixed blessing for the EZ (Publication Centre)

The plunge in Russia's financial markets, in response to targeted U.S. sanctions--see here--against Russian oligarchs and government officials, was the main EU news story yesterday.

10 September 2018 No Need for the MPC to Rock the Boat This Week (Publication Centre)

Lacklustre economic data and persistent no deal Brexit risk mean that the MPC won't rock the boat at this week's meeting.

10 Sept 2019 July's GDP Rebound Rules Out Pre-Brexit Easing from the MPC (Publication Centre)

The pick-up in GDP in July is a re assuring sign that the economy is on course to grow at a solid rate in Q3, thereby substantially weakening the case for the MPC to cut Bank Rate before Britain's Brexit path is known.

10 September 2018 EZ Investment will Slow in Q3, but Consumption Should Pick Up (Publication Centre)

Friday was a busy day in the Eurozone economy. The third detailed GDP estimate confirmed that growth was unchanged at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, pushing the year-over-year rate down by 0.4 percentage points to 2.1%, marginally below the first estimate,2.2%.

11 Dec 2019 Mexico's Leading Indicators Still Signal Tough Near-term Prospects (Publication Centre)

Recent activity data in Mexico have been soft and leading indicators still point to challenging near-term prospects, due mainly to relatively high domestic political risk, stifling interest rates and difficult external conditions.

11 Feb 2020 Mexico's Leading Indicators Point to a Modest Upturn, but Risks Abound (Publication Centre)

Mexico's latest forward-looking indicators are showing tentative signs of stabilisation in the wake of recent evidence that growth slowed quicker than markets have been expecting.

11 July 2018 What Ailed French Manufacturers in the First Half of 2018 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's manufacturing data in France were in stark contrast to last week's upbeat German numbers.

11 July 2018 Will the Strength of Mexican Capex and Consumption Continue in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Recent economic indicators in Mexico have been relatively positive.

11 July 2019 GDP Growth Still isn't Slow Enough to Warrant a Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

The economy looks to be in better shape following May's GDP report than widely feared.

11 July 2018 Monthly GDP Data Tip the Balance Towards an August Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

The upturn in the new monthly measure of GDP in May, released yesterday, was strong enough--just--to suggest that the MPC likely will raise Bank Rate at its next meeting on August 2.

11 January 2019 Chinese Inflation will Fall a bit Further, but Deflation is Off the Table (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's price data for China showed continued declines in both CPI and PPI inflation.

11 Feb 2020 Weather Boost to January Payrolls won't Fully Reverse in February (Publication Centre)

A reader pointed out Friday that the standard measurement of the impact of the weather on January payrolls--the number of people unable to work due to the weather, less the long-term average--likely overstated the boost from the extremely mild temperatures.

11 January 2018 November Data Point to a Slight Slowdown in GDP Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's deluge of output and trade data broadly supported our call that quarter-on-quarter GDP growth likely slowed to 0.3% in Q4, from 0.4% in Q3.

10 October. 2016 EURGBP close to parity will sting EZ trade surplus (Publication Centre)

The euro has been one of the main "beneficiaries" of the pound's relentless decline, which took on ridiculous dimensions as the GBP crashed almost 10% in the early hours of Friday. EURGBP briefly touched 0.94, before settling at 0.9, up just shy of 30% since November.

10 October 2018 Did German GDP Growth Crash in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The hard data now point to a horrendous Q3 GDP print in Germany, which almost surely will constrain the advance EZ GDP print released on October 30.

10 Feb 2020 Job Gains Can't Be Sustained at January's Weather-Assisted Pace (Publication Centre)

The reported 225K jump in payrolls in January was even bigger than we expected, but it is not sustainable. The extraordinarily warm weather last month most obviously boosted job gains in construction, where the 44K increase was the biggest in a year

10 Feb 2020 Temporary Shocks Causes Volatility in LatAm Inflation, Trends are Stable (Publication Centre)

Inflation data in Brazil, Mexico and Chile last week reinforced our view that interest rates will remain on hold, or be cut, over the coming meetings. The recent fall in oil prices, and the weakness of domestic demand, will offset recent volatility caused by the FX sell-off, driven mostly by the coronavirus story.

10 January 2019 Risks to the Consensus for November GDP Lie to the Upside (Publication Centre)

It's hardly surprising that the consensus forecast for month-to-month growth in November GDP, released on Friday, is a mere 0.1%, given the flow of downbeat business surveys.

10 December 2018 EZ Consumption Slowed Sharply in Q3, is a Q4 Rebound Coming? (Publication Centre)

Friday was a busy day in the Eurozone. The final and detailed GDP report confirmed that growth in the euro area slowed to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.4% in Q2, with the year-over-year rate slipping by 0.6 percentage points to 1.6%, just 0.1pp below the first estimate.

10 Dec. 2015 Oil Prices to Play Tricks with German Net Exports Again in Q4? (Publication Centre)

German exports had a sluggish start to the fourth quarter, falling 1.2% month-to-month in October. The monthly drop pushed the year-over-year rate down to 3.0% from 4.2% in September, well down from the 5.6% third quarter average and extending the loss of momentum in recent months. Imports fell 3.6%, so net exports rose, but it's too early to make any useful estimates of net trade in the fourth quarter as a whole.

10 Dec 2019 A Conservative Majority Remains Likely, But it is Not Se t in Stone (Publication Centre)

The Conservatives successfully have defended their average poll lead over Labour of 10 percentage points over the last week.

10 Dec 2019 Well-behaved Inflation in Mexico and Colombia, A Relief for Policymakers (Publication Centre)

Recent inflation and activity data in Mexico were dovish.

10 July 2018 Should we be Excited About the Rebound in EZ Investor Sentiment (Publication Centre)

It has been mostly doom and gloom for euro area investors in equities and credit this year.

10 July 2020 GDP Likely Retraced Just One- Fifth of its Covid-19 Slump in May (Publication Centre)

We expect May's GDP report, released on Tuesday, to provide an early blow to hopes that the economy will embark on a V-shaped recovery this year.

10 Nov. 2015 Trade Data Confirm Our Worst Fears for German Q3 GDP (Publication Centre)

German trade data yesterday added further evidence that net exports likely will wreak havoc with the Q3 GDP report this week. Exports rose 2.6% month-to-month in September, partially rebounding from a 5.2% plunge in August. But imports jumped 3.6%, further adding to the net trade drag on a quarterly basis. Our first chart shows our estimate of real net trade in Q3 as the worst since the collapse in 2008-to-09.

10 November. 2016 A Trump Victory Means Revisions to EU Leaders' Playbooks (Publication Centre)

EZ equity futures predictably fell out of bed as the news of the Trump victory gradually became clear overnight yesterday. The reaction was less violent than after the U.K. Brexit referendum, though, and Mr. Trump's balanced victory speech appears to have calmed nerves for now.

10 Oct 2019 Putting our Money Where Our Mouth is Can the EZ Outperform (Publication Centre)

Gloom and uncertainty are spreading across the global economy as we head into the final stretch of the year.

10 May. 2016 Jump in German Factor Orders do Not Signal the Start of an Upturn (Publication Centre)

New business in German manufacturing ended the first quarter on a strong note. Factory orders rose 1.9% month-to-month in March, above the consensus 0.6%, and net revisions to the February data were +0.4 percentage points. The rise in new orders was exclusively due to a 4.3% increase in export orders, which offset a 1.2% fall in domestic orders. These are strong numbers, but the details suggest that mean reversion will push the headline down next month.

10 Mar 2020 It's Getting Sporty, a Brief Look at the Chaos in EZ Financial Markets (Publication Centre)

In this Monitor we'll let the data be, and try to make some sense of the recent market volatility from a Eurozone perspective, with an eye to the implications for the economy and policymakers' actions.

10 June. 2015 Inflation In Mexico Falls Below the Target - No Rush to Increase Rates (Publication Centre)

Mexico's headline inflation fell to a record low of 2.9% in May, down from 3.1% in April and below the middle of Banxico's inflation target, 2-to-4%, for the first time since May 2005. C ore inflation was unchanged at 2.3% in May; higher services prices were offset by a slowing in the rate of increase of goods prices to 2.4% from 2.7% in April, confirming that the pass-through effect from the MXN's depreciation has been very limited.

10 Mar 2020 Heightened Uncertainty Persists in EM, as Oil Prices Continue to Fall (Publication Centre)

Most countries in LatAm are now fighting a complex global environment; a viral outbreak of biblical proportions and plunging oil prices, after last week's OPEC fiasco.

14 Jan 2020 A Recap of the Main Story in the EZ before the First Q1 Data (Publication Centre)

The EZ calendar has been extremely busy in the first few weeks of the year, making it virtually impossible to see the forest for the trees.

12 Feb 2020 COPOM Closed the Door to Further Easing, Mexico's Industry Struggles (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's minutes of the February 4-to-5 COPOM meeting, at which Brazil's central bank, the BCB, cut the benchmark Selic rate by 25bp to 4.25%, reaffirmed the committee's post-meeting communiqué.

17 July. 2015 Will June Core Inflation Reflect the Upside Surprise in the PPI? (Publication Centre)

June's headline CPI, due this morning, will be boosted by the rebound in gasoline prices, but market focus will be on the core, in the wake of the startling, broad-based jump in the core PPI, reported Wednesday. Core PPI consumer goods prices jumped by 0.7% in June, with big incr eases in the pharmaceuticals, trucks and cigarette components, among others. The year-over-year rate of increase rose to 3.0%, up from 2.1% at the turn of the year and the biggest gain since August 2012. Then, the trend was downwards.

17 June 2019 China's Economy Faltered in May the New Tariff Hit is yet to Come (Publication Centre)

China's activity data for May were a mixed bag, but they broadly paint a consistent picture of a slowdown in economic growth from the first quarter.

17 June 2019 Peak Trade War Might Already be Past, but Strong Nerves Needed (Publication Centre)

When economic historians look back at the bizarre trade war of 2018-to-19, we think they will see Tuesday June 4 as the turning point, after which the threats of fire and brimstone were taken much less seriously, and markets began to ponder life after tariffs.

17 July 2020 Andes' Economic Prospects Remain Grim, but they will Improve Soon (Publication Centre)

May's activity data in the Andes underline the severe hit from the pandemic on economic activity.

17 July 2019 Colombia's Outlook is Improving Domestic Demand is Solid (Publication Centre)

May's activity data underline the gradual recovery in Colombia's economic growth, following signs of weakness at the start of the year.

17 Jan 2020 Manufacturing is Stagnating, but a Modest H1 Upturn is a Fair Bet (Publication Centre)

The trend in manufacturing output probably is about flat, with no real prospect of any serious improvement in the near term.

17 Jan 2020 Phase One Deal Puts a Grey Cloud Over End-2020, Silver Lining now (Publication Centre)

To avoid rocking the 2020 boat, the Phase One trade deal needed to be sufficiently vague, so that neither side, and particularly Mr. Trump, would have much cause to kick up a fuss around missed targets.

17 January 2018 Severe Weather Likely Depressed Homebuilders' Sentiment (Publication Centre)

At the end of last year, U.S. homebuilders were more optimistic than at any time in the previous 18 years, according to the monthly NAHB survey.

17 Mar 2020 A Savage Toll on LatAm's Economy, Prospects Have Turned Bleak (Publication Centre)

Latin American markets and policymakers are bracing for another complicated week, after the second, and more aggressive, Fed emergency move over the weekend.

17 Mar 2020 A Week on the Wild Side in EZ Equities, and It isn't Over Yet (Publication Centre)

The split between the reality reflected in the economic data and market pricing has never been wider in the euro area

17 November. 2016 Inflation Risks Building, Despite Soft PPI (Publication Centre)

Higher gasoline prices will lift today's headline October CPI, which should rise by 0.3%. Unfavorable rounding could easily push it to 0.4%, though, and year-over-year headline inflation should rise to 1.6% or 1.7%, from 1.5% in September and just 0.2% a year ago.

17 Oct 2019 Korea's Q3 GDP Report to Highlight the Futility of the BoK's Second Cut (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea voted yesterday to lower its policy base rate to 1.25%, from 1.50%.

17 October 2018 Brazil's Presidential Second Round is Approaching is it a Done Deal (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian presidential election has remained in the spotlight in recent days and is the main driver of asset price volatility.

17 May. 2016 Core Inflation is Still Trending Higher - Expect Rebound Today (Publication Centre)

The year-over-year rate of core CPI inflation rose steadily from a low of 1.6% in January 2015 to 2.3% in February this year. At that point, the three-month annualized rate had reached a startling 3.0%. You could be forgiven, therefore, for thinking that the dip in core inflation back to 2.2% in March was an inevitable correction after a period of unsustainably rapid gains, and that the underlying trend in core inflation isn't really heading towards 3%.

17 May 2017 Strong Q1 Confirmed for the EZ, but will Momentum Persist in Q2? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports confirmed that the Eurozone economy had a strong start to 2017. Real GDP rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, similar to the pace in Q4, and consistent with the first estimate. The year-over-year rate fell marginally to 1.7%, from 1.8% in Q4, mainly due to base effects.

17 Mar 2020 There is Nothing Remotely Like Q1 in Historical Chinese Data (Publication Centre)

We lack an adjective sufficiently strong to describe China's February activity data.

17 May 2017 Is Housing Activity set to Reach New Cycle Highs this Summer? (Publication Centre)

Last week, the MBA's measure of the volume of applications for new mortgages to finance house purchase rose 1.7%.

17 Jan 2020 EZ Car Sales Soared in Q4, but the Output Data Still Look Awful (Publication Centre)

A strong finish to the fourth quarter spared the EZ auto sector the embarrassment of posting an outright fall in domestic sales through 2019 as a whole.

17 February 2017 Slowing Real Incomes Threaten Spending (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of real personal incomes is under sustained downward pressure, slowing to 2.1% year-over-year in December from 3.4% in the year to December 2015. In January, we think real income growth will dip below 2%, thanks to the spike in the headline CPI, reported Wednesday. Our first chart shows that the 0.6% increase in the index likely will translate into a 0.5% jump in the PCE deflator, generating the first month-to-month decline in real incomes since January last year.

16 May 2017 Upbeat March's Data in Brazil Confirms the Recession is Over (Publication Centre)

Economic data released yesterday underscored that Brazil emerged from recession in the first quarter, but further rate cuts are needed. Indeed, the monthly economic activity index--the IBC-Br--fell 0.4% monthto- month in March, though this followed a strong 1.4% gain in February.

16 May 2018 Chinese Retail Sales Volumes Stabilised in April, Q1 was Weak (Publication Centre)

Chinese April retail sales growth slowed sharply in value terms, to 9.4% year-over-year, from 10.1% in March.

16 November 2017 Core CPI Mean-Reverts, but Base Effects Mean Sub-2% Until March (Publication Centre)

The average month-to-month increase in the core CPI in the past three months is a solid 0.20, much firmer than the 0.05% average over the previous five months, stretching back to the first of the run of downside surprises, in March.

16 Mar. 2015 The Fed won't wait for the Whites of Inflation's eyes (Publication Centre)

We don't often picks fights with Nobel prize winners and former Treasury secretaries. But right now we think that Paul Krugman and Larry Summers, leading lights of the view that the Fed should not begin to raise rates "until you see the whites of inflation's eyes", are dead wrong.

16 Mar. 2015 Temporary Reversal - Bad Numbers for Mexico, Good for Brazil (Publication Centre)

Two key points can be extracted from the minutes of the last BCB meeting, when policymakers increased the Selic interest rate by 50bp to 12.75%. First, the bank recognized that the balance of risks to inflation has deteriorated, due to the huge adjustment of regulated prices and the BRL's depreciation, but it specifically referred only to "this year" in the communiqué.

16 June 2020 Lockdowns Continue to Put the Andean Economies Under Strain (Publication Centre)

Economic activity remains under severe strain in the Andes.

16 June. 2015 EZ External Demand on Track for Healthy Rebound in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Net exports should come roaring back as a driver of Eurozone GDP growth in the second quarter. The euro area trade surplus leapt to €24.3B in April, a new all-time high, up from a revised €19.9B in March. A 1.7% month-to-month fall in imports--mean-reversion from a 3.9% increase in March--was a big contributor to the higher surplus.

16 Oct 2019 China's Q3 GDP Likely was Dismal, Recovery Still Pending (Publication Centre)

China's official real GDP growth likely slowed to 6.0% year-over-year in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2.

16 Oct 2019 Did Pre-Tariff Spending Boost September Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

Tariffs are a tax on imported goods, and higher taxes depress growth, other things equal.

17 December 2018 China's Activity Data for November were Poor... the Worst is yet to Come (Publication Centre)

We had expected the batch of Chinese data released at the end of last week to disappoint.

17 December 2018 Corporate Debt Service Still Falling, Three Years After the First Fed Hike (Publication Centre)

This week brings the third anniversary of the first rate hike in this cycle, on December 16, 2015.

17 Feb 2020 January CPI Inflation Set to Undershoot the MPC's Forecast (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation surprises look set to trigger larger- than-usual market reactions over the coming months, given that the MPC emphasised last month that it wants to see domestically-generated inflation rebound swiftly, after falling suddenly late last year, in order to justify keeping Bank Rate on hold.

17 Dec 2019 The MPC won't Dwell on December's Weak Flash PMIs (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, December's flash Markit/CIPS PMIs warrant the MPC cutting Bank Rate at its meeting on Thursday.

17 Dec 2019 Signs of Stabilisation in Chinese Data, but not yet a Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's activity data outperformed expectations in November.

16 Oct. 2015 Goods Prices Aren't Falling Fast Enough to Offset Services Gains (Publication Centre)

The strong dollar is pushing down goods prices, but not very quickly. As a result, the sustained upward pressure on rents is gradually nudging core CPI inflation higher. It now stands at 1.9%, up from a low of 1.6% in January, and even relatively modest gains over the third quarter will push the rate above 2% by year-end. We can't rule out core CPI inflation ending the year at a startling 2.3%.

16 October 2018 Q3 Consumption Rose by Nearly 4%, Despite So September Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

The softness of the headline September retail sales numbers hid a decent 0.5% increase in the "control" measure, which is the best guide to consumers' spending on non-durable goods.

17 October. 2016 Retail Sales are Noisy, but the Trend in Consumption Looks Solid (Publication Centre)

In the wake of the September retail sales report, we can be pretty sure that real consumers' spending rose at a 2¾% annualized rate in the third quarter, slowing from the unsustainable 4.3% jump. That would mean consumption contributed 1.9 percentage points to headline GDP growth.

17 Sept 2019 China Needs a Rate Cut and an Interim Deal it will Prioritise Rates (Publication Centre)

China's activity data yesterday made pretty uncomfortable reading for policymakers.

19 Dec 2019 Another Poor Quarter Ahead for Construction in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy all but stalled at the start of Q4.

19 Dec 2019 Below-Target Inflation Next Year Won't Warrant Monetary Stimulus (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation held steady at 1.5% in November, marking the fourth consecutive below-target print, though it was a tenth above both the MPC's forecast and the consensus.

19 Dec 2019 Don't Expect China's LPR to Move Much, if at all, for December (Publication Centre)

The PBoC reduced its 14-day reverse repo by 5bp to 2.65% in a routine operation yesterday.

18 Sept. 2015 BCCh Leaves Interest Rates Steady But Hints Tightening Soon (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank left its main interest rate unchanged last week at 3.0%, for the ninth month in a row. But policymakers adopted a hawkish bias in the press release, signalling that rates will rise later this year.

18 Sept 2019 Can Investors Count on the EZ as Global Uncertainty Bites (Publication Centre)

Our colleagues have been telling some unpleasant stories recently.

18 Oct 2019 Housing Investment Looks Set for a Double-Digit Q4 Jump (Publication Centre)

The declines in headline housing starts and building permits in September don't matter; both were driven by corrections in the volatile multi-family sector.

18 October 2017 Housing Activity is Poised for a Hefty Q4 Rebound as Demand Rebounds (Publication Centre)

Today brings the September housing construction report, which likely will show that activity was depressed by the hurricanes.

19 Dec 2019 The Philly Fed Likely is Still Outperforming, Treat with Caution (Publication Centre)

The next couple of rounds of business surveys will capture firms' responses to the Phase One trade deal agreed last week, though the news came too late to make much, if any, difference to the December Philly Fed report, which will be released today.

19 Feb 2020 The Labour Market is Tight Enough to Sustain Brisk Wage Rises (Publication Centre)

The headline employment numbers masked an otherwise sub-par December labour market report.

19 June 2017 Colombia's Economy Started Q2 Poorly, Expect a Sluggish Recovery (Publication Centre)

Evidence of slowing economic activity in Colombia continues to mount. Retail sales fell 2.0% year- over-rate in April, down from a revised plus 3.0% in March; and the underlying trend is falling. This year's consumption tax increase, low confidence, tight credit conditions, and rising unemployment continue to put private consumption under pressure.

19 June 2020 Brazil's BCB is Determined to do Everything Possible to Boost Growth (Publication Centre)

Policymakers in Brazil and Chile took another big step this week in assuring markets that they won't hesitate to act in the fight against the virus.

19 June 2020 India's Q2 Started Off on a Terrible Note, More RBI Cuts Coming (Publication Centre)

The first real glimpse of India's economic performance early this quarter is grim, adding weight to our below-consensus GDP forecast.

19 July 2018 China's Domestic Activity Likely Recovered in Q2 (Publication Centre)

China's official GDP data, published on Monday, showed year-over-year growth edging down to 6.7% in Q2, from 6.8% in Q1.

19 February 2019 Brazil's Momentum Slowed in Q4, but it Will Rebound Soon (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December economic activity index, released last week, showed that the economy ended the year on a relatively soft footing.

19 Feb. 2015 Never Mind the Dovish Minutes, What Does Yellen Think? (Publication Centre)

It's easy to read the January minutes as the dovish counterpart to a clear hawkish shift in the meeting. The statement, remember, upgraded the growth view to "solid" from "moderate"; it reiterated that the downward inflation shock from energy prices will be "transitory" and it said that the the pace of job growth is now "strong", having previously been "solid".

19 Feb. 2016 Weak Manufacturing is a Serious Problem, for Manufacturers (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing does not consistently lead the rest of the economy. Neither does it consistently lag. On average, turning points in the rates of growth of manufacturing output and GDP are coincident, as our first chart clearly shows. But coincidence is not causality.

18 Oct 2019 Food Inflation Woes Intensify in Asia, with No Sign Yet of Respite (Publication Centre)

Rapidly increasing food inflation is creating all sorts of dilemmas for policymakers in Asia's giants.

18 Nov 2019 A Meaningful Recovery in Chinese Capex Growth is a Distant Prospect (Publication Centre)

China's investment slowdown went from worrying to frightening in October. Last week's fixed asset investment ex-rural numbers showed that year- to-date spending grew by 5.2% year-over-year in October, marking a further slowdown from 5.4% in the year to September.

18 Dec 2019 The BoJ will be Happy to Focus on the Positives this Thursday (Publication Centre)

The BoJ is likely to stay on hold this week for all its main policy settings.

18 Feb 2020 Brazil's Momentum Slowed in Late Q4, but it Will Rebound in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December economic activity index, released last week, showed that the economy ended the year on a relatively weak footing. The IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for GDP, fell 0.3% month- to-month, pushing down the adjusted year-over- year rate to 0.3%, from a downwardly-revised 0.7% increase in November.

18 Feb 2020 December Data to Sustain Picture of Solid Job Gains But Slowing Wages (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market report looks set to be a mixed bag, with growth in employment remaining strong, but further signs that momentum in average weekly wages has faded.

18 Dec 2019 Labour Market Data Remain Strong Enough to Keep Rate Cuts at Bay (Publication Centre)

The labour market remains healthy enough to persuade the MPC to keep its powder dry over the coming months.

18 Dec 2019 Boeing's Production Cut will Depress GDP Slightly, IP Hit Much Harder (Publication Centre)

Boeing's announcement that it will temporarily cut production of 737MAX aircraft to zero in January, from the current 42 per month pace, will depress first quarter economic growth, though not by much.

18 August 2017 Sluggish Income Growth has Held Back Consumption, that will Change (Publication Centre)

Consumer confidence surveys have risen since the elections to levels consistent with very rapid growth in real spending.

18 Dec 2019 Banxico to Cut Rates Even Further, but the COPOM is Almost Done (Publication Centre)

Banxico will meet tomorrow, and we expect Mexican policymakers to cut the main interest rate by 25bp, to 7.25%.

18 Feb. 2015 Cold Weather Set to Flatter January Production - No Oil Hit Yet (Publication Centre)

Today brings a raft of January data on both economic activity and prices, but we expect the headline numbers in each report to be distorted by the impact of severe weather or the plunge in oil prices.

18 Feb. 2016 How to Read the Jobless Claims Numbers, Wherever They Go (Publication Centre)

The question of what's really happening to the pace of layoffs is still unanswered, despite the apparent upturn over the past couple of months. The weekly jobless claims numbers are only just emerging from the fog of the usual holiday season chaos. The pattern of pre-holiday hiring and post-holiday layoffs is broadly the same each year, but Christmas and New Year's Day fall on a different day each year, making seasonal adjustment difficult.

18 March 2019 Beware the Easter Effect in EZ Core Inflation in March and April (Publication Centre)

Data on Friday confirmed that headline inflation in the Eurozone rose a bit last month, to 1.5% from 1.4% in January, but also that the core rate dipped by 0.1 percentage points, to 1.0%.

18 May 2020 GDP in Brazil and Colombia to Fall Even Further in Q2, Q3 will be Better (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday confirmed an appalling end to the first quarter for the Brazilian and Colombian economies. In Brazil, the March IBC-Br, a monthly proxy for GDP, plunged 5.9% month-to-month, close to expectations.

18 May. 2016 Did the FOMC Discuss Brexit Risk at the April Meeting? (Publication Centre)

The April FOMC statement dropped the March assertion that "global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks" to the U.S. economy, even though growth "appears to have slowed". Instead policymakers pointed out that "labor conditions have improved further", perhaps suggesting they don't take the weak-looking March data at face value. We certainly don't.

18 Mar 2020 Fed CP Purchases and the $850B Bill are Progress, but Not Enough (Publication Centre)

The establishment of the Fed's commercial paper funding facility, announced yesterday, replicates the first wave of asset purchases undertaken after the crash of 2008.

14 Jan 2020 Core CPI Inflation is Contained, but Risks Abound for December (Publication Centre)

Our base case is that the core CPI rose 0.2% in December, but the net risk probably is to the upside. We see scope for significant increases in sectors as diverse as used autos, apparel, healthcare, and rent, but nothing is guaranteed.

18 January 2018 Housing Starts Likely Dipped Last Month, but the Trend is Rising (Publication Centre)

Hot on the heels of yesterday's news that the NAHB index of homebuilders' sentiment and activity dropped by two points this month -- albeit from December's 18-year high -- we expect to learn today that housing starts fell last month.

18 July 2017 Colombia's Economic Prospects Remain Poor, but they will Improve (Publication Centre)

May's activity data underline the weakness of Colombia's economic growth. Domestic demand still is under pressure due to the lagged effect of the deterioration in the terms of trade and other temporary shocks in 2016, and the VAT increase in January this year.

16 July 2020 State Initial Claims Likely Down Again, but Lookout for PUA Claims (Publication Centre)

The weekly initial jobless claims numbers have been a useful proxy for the real-time performance of the economy since Covid-19 struck.

18 July 2018 Car Sales Likely Lifted EZ Durable Goods Consumption in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Momentum in the EZ auto sector rebounded at the end of the second quarter.

15 Apr. 2015 Plunging utility output and oil well-drilling to depress March IP (Publication Centre)

The combination of weather effects and the meltdown in the oil sector make it very hard to spot the underlying trend in manufacturing activity. The sudden collapse in oil-related capital spending likely is holding down production of equipment, but the data don't provide sufficient detail to identify the hit with any precision.

15 Apr. 2016 Downside Risk to March Output, but Worst is Over - Gains Ahead (Publication Centre)

In the wake of the uptick in the March ISM manufacturing survey, we think today's official production data for the same month are likely to disappoint. Our model of the month-to-month output numbers incorporates the ISM data, but it is substantially driven by manufacturing hours worked, which fell in both February and March.

15 April 2019 What Does the Art 50 Extension Say About the EU's Brexit View (Publication Centre)

The EU's decision to grant the U.K. an extension under Article 50, until October 31, reveals two key aspects of continental Europe's position on Brexit.

15 Apr 2020 Brace for Grim March Retail Sales and IP Reports, with Worse to Come (Publication Centre)

Today brings a wave of data which will help analysts narrow their estimates for first quarter GDP growth, and will offer some clues, albeit limited, about the early part of the second quarter.

14 September 2018 Core Inflation won't Keep Falling (Publication Centre)

We were right about the below-consensus inflation numbers for June, but wrong about the explanation. We thought the core would be constrained by a drop in used car prices, while apparel and medical costs would rebound after their July declines.

14 September 2018 A Slightly Confusing ECB Meeting, but No Change to the Key Message (Publication Centre)

The ECB's key message was unchanged yesterday. The main refinancing and deposit rates were maintained at zero and -0.4%, respectively, and they are expected "to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019."

14 September 2018 A Tough Fiscal Overhaul to Avoid a Collapse Can Macri Succeed (Publication Centre)

Argentina's central bank held interest rates at 60% on Wednesday, as was widely expected.

15 Aug 2019 Today's Data Wave Will be Split Strong Consumers, Weak Industry (Publication Centre)

Today brings an astonishing eight economic reports, so by the end of the wave of numbers we'll have a pretty good idea of how the economy performed in the first month of the third quarter.

15 August 2017 The German Economy Fired on All Cylinders in the First Half of 2017 (Publication Centre)

Today's advance Q2 GDP report in Germany will add evidence that the EZ economy performed strongly in the first half of 2017. We can be pretty sure that the headline will be robust. The German statistical office reports a confidential number to Eurostat for the first estimate of EZ GDP--two weeks ahead of today's data--which was a solid 0.6%.

15 February 2018 One Outsized Core CPI Gain does not Make a Trend, it Looks Like Noise (Publication Centre)

The January core CPI numbers are consistent with our view that the U.S. faces bigger upside inflation risks than markets and the Fed believe.

15 Jan 2020 Chinese Trade Ends 2019 Strongly, but the Surplus Still is Narrowing (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus jumped to a six-month high of $46.8B in December, from $37.6B in November, on the back of a strong increase in exports.

15 Jan 2020 It's Time to Allocate Serious Capital to Clean Energy in Europe (Publication Centre)

Eurozone investors should by now be accustomed to direct intervention in private financial markets by policymakers.

15 December 2017 Strong November Sales Mean Q3 Consumption Heading for 3% (Publication Centre)

The 0.8% jump in nominal November retail sales is consistent with a 0.4% rise in real total consumption, which in turn suggests that the fourth quarter as a whole is likely to see a near-3% annualized gain.

15 December 2016 EZ Manufacturing will Recover Quickly from its Poor Start to Q4 (Publication Centre)

Eurozone manufacturers had an underwhelming start to Q4. Data yesterday showed that production fell 0.1% month-to-month in October, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 0.6%, from a revised 1.3% in September. Output was constrained mostly by weakness in France and a big month-to-month fall in Ireland, which offset marginal gains in Germany and Spain.

15 August 2018 Soft July Headline Retail Sales Numbers will Hide a Solid Core (Publication Centre)

The first wave of domestic third quarter data crashes ashore this morning.

15 Dec. 2014 - U.S. Approaching the Monetary Policy Crossing Point (Publication Centre)

All policymaking is about trade-offs; very few government decisions confer only benefits. Someone, or more likely some group, loses. Monetary policy is no exception to the trade-off rule.

14 Sept. 2015 Italy's Structural Problems Persist, but Cyclical Upturn is Firming (Publication Centre)

Italy's long-term challenges--chiefly, structurally high government debt and deteriorating demographics--remain daunting, but the cyclical picture is improving steadily. Final GDP data last week revealed that growth in the first half of the year was 0.2% better than initially estimated, taking the annualised growth rate to 1.4%, the highest in five years. This is the first sign of a durable business cycle upturn since the sovereign debt crisis crashed the economy in 2012.

14 Oct. 2015 Ignore Falling Energy Prices, and Focus on Core Inflation in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Collapsing energy prices continue to weigh on the headline inflation rate in the Eurozone's largest economy. Final September CPI data in Germany confirmed that inflation fell to 0.0% year-over-year from 0.2%, due to a 9.3% plunge in energy prices -- down from a 7.6% fall in August--mainly a result of a collapse in petrol price inflation. This comfortably offset an increase in food inflation to 1.1% from 0.8%, due to surging vegetable and fruit prices.

14 July 2020 Mild Deflation Ahead for Core Goods Inflation in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Today's official euro area manufacturing report will be a corker.

14 July. 2015 Light at the End of The Tunnel in Greece, as New Bailout is Close (Publication Centre)

The EU and Greece finally managed to agree on the framework for a third bailout yesterday, conditional on ratification in the Greek and EU parliaments this week. Mr. Tsipras' capitulation to EU demands will increase tensions within Syriza, but we expect the opposition comfortably to offset any government dissenters in this week's vote.

14 June 2019 Retail Sales and IP Both Likely Rebounded in May (Publication Centre)

The wave of May data due for release today likely will go some way to countering the market narrative of a seriously slowing economy, a story which gained further momentum last week after the release of the May employment report.

14 January 2019 November's Pick up in GDP Growth is Noise, not Signal (Publication Centre)

A cursory glance at November's GDP report gives the misleading impression that the U.K. economy is ticking over nicely, despite Brexit.

14 January 2019 Inflation in Brazil is Still Benign, but the Outlook Will Depend on Politics (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil ended 2018 under control, despite slightly overshooting expectations.

16 July 2018 Mr. Duque Inherits a Colombian Economy Firing on all Cylinders (Publication Centre)

Last week's hard data in Colombia were upbeat, confirming that economic growth accelerated in the first half. Retail sales rose 5.9% year-over-year in May, overshooting consensus.

14 Jan. 2015 A Question of Seniority as the European Court Decides on OMT (Publication Centre)

The European Court of Justice, ECJ, will not likely pour fuel on the slumbering fire later today by ruling that OMT is in violation of EU law.

14 March 2017 The ECB can Raise its Deposit Rate Before QE Ends (Publication Centre)

Markets are becoming more sensitive to rumours about changes in ECB policy. The euro and yields jumped on Friday after a Bloomberg report that the central bank has discussed raising rates before QE ends.

14 March 2018 Services and Construction are Boosting French Employment (Publication Centre)

Unemployment in France remains high, but the trend is turning. The mainland rate of joblessness fell to a five-year low of 8.6% in Q4, and yesterday's employment report continued the good news.

14 Nov 2019 Japan's PPI Underscores More Muted Impact of Tax Hike on Prices (Publication Centre)

Japan's PPI data yesterday confirmed that October was a turning point for prices--due to the consumption tax hike--despite the surprising stability of CPI inflation in Tokyo for the same month.

14 November 2017 Mexico's Manufacturing Remains Resilient, but NAFTA Risk is High (Publication Centre)

LatAm's economies are starting to expand at a relatively healthy pace, inflation is more or less under control and near-term growth prospects are positive.

14 Oct 2019 Resilient Consumption in Brazil, Manufacturing in Mexico Slowing (Publication Centre)

Hard data for Brazil and Mexico, released last week, support the case for further interest rate cuts.

14 May 2020 Korea's Stable Unemployment Rate Belies the Ongoing Virus Hit to Jobs (Publication Centre)

Korea's unemployment rate was unchanged in April, at 3.8%, beating even our below-consensus forecast for only a minor uptick, to 3.9%.

14 May 2020 GDP Likely Fell even Further in April than March Data Imply (Publication Centre)

We take little comfort from the fact that the 2.0% quarter-on-quarter drop in Q1 GDP was a bit smaller than the consensus forecast, 2.5%, and the 3.0% fall pencilled-in by the MPC in its Monetary Policy Report.

14 May 2019 French Manufacturing Output is Headed for a Fall in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Data on Friday showed that the upturn in French manufacturing petered out at the end of Q1.

14 May 2020 Brace for a hit to EZ Manufacturing Employment and Investment (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data provided further evidence of the damage wrought on the EZ at the end of Q1.

15 Jan 2020 The Rise in Continuing Jobless Claims is No Cause for Concern (Publication Centre)

The weekly jobless claims numbers are due Thursday, as usual, but in the wake of a flood of emails from readers, all asking a variant of the same question-- should we be worried about the rise in continuing jobless claims?--we want to address the issue now.

14 Nov 2019 Healthcare Inflation is Gathering Steam How Far will it Rise (Publication Centre)

It's hard to know what to make of the October CPI data, which recorded hefty increases in healthcare costs and used car prices but a huge drop in hotel room rates, and big decline in apparel prices, and inexplicable weakness in rents.

16 Apr 2020 Jobless Claims Look Set to Fall Sharply, but Remain Insanely High (Publication Centre)

For all the excitement generated by yesterday's raft of appalling economic reports, the weekly jobless claims numbers still offer the best, and almost real-time, guide to the big picture.

16 Aug 2019 China is in for a U-Shaped Recovery H2 Activity will remain Tepid (Publication Centre)

China's July activity data pretty categorically wiped out any false hopes of a V-shaped recovery, after the June spike.

16 Aug 2019 Consumption Started Q3 Strongly Industry Still in the Doldrums (Publication Centre)

The surge in July core retail sales was flattered by the impact of the Amazon Prime Event, which helped drive a 2.8% leap in sales at nonstore retailers.

15 Jan. 2015 Inflation Data Confirm Investment Malaise in the French Economy (Publication Centre)

France just about avoided slipping into deflation in December, with the CPI rising 0.1% year-over-year, down from 0.3% in November. The 4.4% drop in the energy component should have pushed inflation below zero, but a seasonal increase in tourism services was enough to offset the drag from oil prices.

15 September 2017 Chinese Consumption and Investment is Weakening in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The Chinese activity data published yesterday were much weaker than expected; growth rates fell resoundingly. Did analysts really get it wrong, or is this just another example of erratic Chinese data?

15 Sept. 2015 August Retail Sales "Soft" Again? But the Real Story is Different (Publication Centre)

Today's wave of data will be mixed, but most of the headlines are likely to be on the soft side, so the reports are very unlikely to trigger a wave of last minute defections to the hawkish side of the FOMC. As always, though, the headlines don't necessarily capture the underlying story, and that's certainly been the case with the retail sales data this year. Plunging prices for gas and imported goods, especially audio-video items, have driven down the rate of growth of nominal retail sales, but real sales have performed much better.

15 September 2016 A Critical 12 Months Ahead for the EU (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's State of the Union address by EC president Jean-Claude Juncker commanded more attention than usual, but contained little news on the key talking points for investors.

16 August 2017 As Good as it Gets for German GDP Growth in 2017? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Q2 GDP report in Germany was solid, but the headline disappointed slightly. GDP growth slowed to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter from an upwardly- revised 0.7% rise in Q1. The year-over-year rate, however, rose to 2.1% from a revised 2.0% in Q1.

16 August 2018 CPI Inflation is on Track for 2% by December, Despite July's Rise (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation is on track to fall back to 2.0% in the winter and below the MPC's target thereafter, despite rising to 2.5% in July, from 2.4% in June.

16 Jan 2020 BoJ Likely to Stamp its Approval on the Budget with a GDP Upgrade (Publication Centre)

The BoJ is likely to be thankful next week for a relatively benign environment in which to conduct its monetary policy meeting.

16 Jan 2020 No Repeat of the December 2018 Plunge in Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

Ahead of the release of the retail sales report for December 2018, markets expected to see unchanged non-auto sales.

16 Jan. 2015 - Oil Output is Holding up, but Still Downside Risk for December IP (Publication Centre)

The latest data from the Energy Department show that the feared collapse in U.S. oil production in the wake of the plunge in crude prices has no t started yet. The number of rigs in operation is falling sharply, but our first chart shows it is not yet approaching the collapse seen after the financial crash.

16 Dec 2019 The Trade Deal Should Lift Business Sentiment, but Modestly (Publication Centre)

The "Phase One" China trade deal announced late last week is a step in the right direction, but a small one. With no official text available as we reach our deadline, we're relying on media reporting, but the outline of the agreement is clear.

16 Dec 2019 Has the Tories' Landslide Paved the Way for a Rate Hike Next Year? (Publication Centre)

Markets greatly cheered the Conservatives' landslide victory on Friday, but remained cautious on the potential for the MPC to return to the tightening cycle it started in 2017.

16 August 2018 Domestic Demand Strength from Q2 Spilled Over into Early Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's wave of data suggested that a good part of the strength in final demand in the second quarter was sustained into the first month of this quarter, and perhaps the second too.

16 Dec 2019 "Phase One" Picked Low-Hanging Fruit... Now for the Hard Part (Publication Centre)

ate last week, China and the U.S. reached an agreement, averting the planned U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese consumer goods that were slated to be imposed on December 15.

15 Oct 2019 The China Trade Nothingburger won't Turn the Economy Around (Publication Centre)

The New York Times called the China trade agreement reached Friday "half a deal", but that's absurdly generous.

15 Oct 2019 China's Year-over-Year Trade Figures are Overly Grim (Publication Centre)

China's September imports missed expectations, but commentators and markets tend to focus on the year-over-year numbers.

15 June 2020 The Recovery in GDP will Lose Momentum as the Year Drags On (Publication Centre)

The economy will be a shadow of its former self over the remainder of this year, following the heavy pummelling from Covid-19.

15 March 2019 China's Activity Data Aren't as Bad as they Look on the Surface (Publication Centre)

The headlines of China's main activity gauges paint a dreary picture of the start of the year, implying a slowdown.

15 May 2019 German Core Inflation Jumped Way Above Trend in April (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's inflation data in Germany were old news to markets, but the details were spectacular all the same.

15 July 2020 Slowing Rent Increases Emerge as a Key Drag on the Core CPI (Publication Centre)

We aren't much bothered by the one-tenth overshoot in the June core CPI, reported yesterday.

15 July 2020 EZ Manufacturing Workers Face a Difficult Time in the Next Year (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ manufacturing data were slightly underwhelming, at least compared to expectations.

15 Jan. 2016 Don't Believe Everything You See in Germany's GDP Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's preliminary full-year GDP data in Germany tell a cautionary tale of the dangers in taking national accounts at face value. The headline data suggest real GDP growth rose to 1.7% in 2015, up slightly from 1.6% in 2014, but these data are not adjusted for calendar effects. The working-day adjusted measure buried in the press release instead indicates that growth slowed marginally to 1.5% from 1.6% in 2014.

15 July 2020 Brazil's Macro Conditions Seem to be Stabilising, Rate Cuts During H2 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recession carried over into the middle of Q2, but with diminishing intensity in some economic sectors.

15 May 2019 Q2 Consumption on Course for 3%, Despite Auto Drag on April Retailing (Publication Centre)

The gap between the official measure of the rate of growth of core retail sales and the Redbook chainstore sales numbers remains bafflingly huge, but we have no specific reason to expect it to narrow substantially with the release of the April report today.

15 May 2020 Food Service, Autos and Gas Drops Signal Downside Retail Sales Risk (Publication Centre)

Our current base-case forecast for the second quarter is a 30% annualized drop in GDP, based on our assessment of the hit to discretionary spending by both businesses and consumers.

15 November 2018 From #Euroboom to #Eurogloom What Next for the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second estimate of GDP confirmed that Eurozone growth slowed significantly in Q3.

15 Oct 2019 Brazil's Modest Recovery Continues, Peru's Central Bank to Cut Soon (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday from Brazil support our view that the economic recovery continues, but progress has been slow.

15 Oct 2019 Breakthrough or False Dawns in Brexit and the Trade Wars? (Publication Centre)

Few Eurozone investors are going blindly to accept the rosy premise of last week's relief rally in equities that both a Brexit and a U.S-China trade deal are now, suddenly, and miraculously, within touching distance. But they're allowed to hope, nonetheless.

15 Nov 2019 Core Retail Sales Growth has to Slow in Q4, but How Far (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of nominal core retail sales substantially outstripped the rate of growth of nominal personal incomes, after tax, in both the second and third quarters.

15 November 2017 Chinese October Activity Data Were Mixed but Will Weaken Over Winter (Publication Centre)

The Chinese activity data published yesterday were a mixed bag, with headline retail sales and production weakening, while FAI growth was stable. We compile our own indices for all three, to crosscheck the official versions.

16 Jan. 2015 Private Consumption Jumped in Brazil in Q4, But Only Temporarily (Publication Centre)

This week's economic activity data for Brazil have been upbeat, indicating that the economy is recovering after a recession in the first half of 2014, but at a very gradual pace.

15 Nov 2019 Banxico Cut Rates, Brazil's Economy was Firing on all Cylinders in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The two biggest economies in the region have taken divergent paths in recent months, with the economic recovery strengthening in Brazil, but slowing sharply in Mexico.

15 Nov 2019 Chinese Growth Momentum Under Attack from all Angles (Publication Centre)

China's main activity data for October disappointed across the board, strengthening our conviction that the PBoC probably isn't quite done with easing this year.

3 July 2017 China's Industrial Complex still Strong in Q2, H2 in Draghi's Hands (Publication Centre)

We expect China's quarterly real GDP growth in the second quarter to edge down from Q1, but only because Q1 growth was unsustainable. The official data shows real GDP growth at 1.3% quarter-onquarter in Q1.

26 February 2019 Weak Industrial Output will Continue to Hurt the Mexican Economy in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday confirmed that the Mexican economy ended Q4 poorly; policymakers will take note.

6 Oct. 2015 Will the Industrial Slowdown Drag Down the Rest of the Economy? (Publication Centre)

The elevated September ISM non-manufacturing index reported yesterday--it dipped to 56.9 but remains very high by historical standards--again served to underscore the depth of the bifurcation in the economy. The services sector, boosted by the collapse in gasoline prices and the strong dollar, is massively outperforming the woebegone manufacturing sector.

15 January 2018 Mexico's Industrial Sector Remains Unresponsive, but Q1 Will be Better (Publication Centre)

Upbeat survey data, a competitive MXN, and the strong U.S. manufacturing sector indicate that Mexican industry should be rebounding.

7 May 2019 Plunging Industrial Activity in Brazil Highlight the Political Mess (Publication Centre)

In our recent Monitors, we stressed that some leading indicators in Brazil, particularly business and consumer confidence, are still pointing to a gradual economic recovery.

CNBC - The industrial economy is soft but the consumer is strong: Portfolio manager (Media Centre)

Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management, and Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, join "Squawk Box" to discuss the markets and the economy as the Fed gets set to kick off its two-day meeting on rates.

8 January 2018 Brazil's Industrial Sector and Foreign Trade to Remain Resilient in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Survey data have been signalling a relatively resilient Brazilian economy in the last few months, despite intensified political risk, and hard data are beginning to confirm this story.

13 May. 2015 Eurozone Q1 GDP Should Beat Consensus - Best since 2011 (Publication Centre)

Monthly manufacturing and retail sales data point to upside risk to the consensus expectation of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 Eurozone real GDP growth. Advance country data indicate that industrial production was unchanged month-to-month in March, equivalent to a 0.9% increase quarter-on-quarter.

14 February 2019 Brace for a Downward Revision to the Q4 EZ GDP Headline Today (Publication Centre)

The monthly data for industrial production and retail sales, and the advance GDP headline, already paint a grim picture of what happened in the EZ economy at the end of 2018.

14 June. 2016 Eurozone Investment is Improving, But Growth will Slow in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Data today likely will show that manufacturing in the Eurozone was off to a strong start to the second quarter. Advance country data suggest that industrial production jumped 1.1% month-to-month in April, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 1.9% from 0.1% in March. The rise in output was driven mainly by Germany and France, but decent month-to-month gains in Ireland, Portugal and Greece also helped.

13 January 2017 The Eurozone Economy Remains Oblivious to Political Risks (Publication Centre)

The euro area economy continues to defy rising political uncertainty. Data yesterday showed that industrial production, ex-construction, in the Eurozone jumped 1.5% month-to-month in November, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 3.2% from a revised 0.8% in October. Output rose in all the major economies, but the headline was flattered by a 16.3% month-to-month leap in Ireland. This was due to a production jump in Ireland's "modern sector" which includes the country's large multinational technology sector.

14 Oct. 2015 Stable Manufacturing, but External Risks Are Still Present (Publication Centre)

Mexican industrial production data for August were a little stronger-than-expected. Output rose 1.0% year-over-year, for the second consecutive month, and marginally higher than the 0.6% average growth in the second quarter. The rise in production in August is encouraging, especially the strong manufacturing component, which accounts for about half of all output.

13 Feb. 2015 Cyclical outlook is improving in the euro area (Publication Centre)

GDP data today will probably show that the Eurozone economy accelerated to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, up from 0.2% a quarter earlier. Industrial production came in disappointingly at 0.0% month-to-month in December, but this is not enough to change our forecast in the light of solid data on household spending.

12 September. 2016 Everything Changes in the Second Half (Publication Centre)

This week brings a wave of data on all aspects of the economy, bar housing. By the end o f the week, we'll have a better idea of the shape of consumers' spending, the industrial sector and the inflation picture, and estimates of third quarter GDP growth will start to mean something.

13 Apr. 2015 Energy Output Helped French GDP to a Strong First Quarter (Publication Centre)

The French manufacturing sector remains challenged by weak end-demand. Industrial production was unchanged month-to-month in February, equivalent to a meagre 0.6% increase year-over- year; manufacturing output fell 0.8% on the same basis.

13 Apr. 2016 Key Data Improving in the Biggest LatAm Economies, Just (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in Mexico surged 2.6% year-over-year in February, up from a 0.8% increase in January. A favourable calendar effect, however, is a key part of this story. Once adjusted for the leap year, which added an extra working day, industrial production rose only 0.8%, down from a 1.6% expansion in January.

14 September 2017 Robust Manufacturing and Rising Employment in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in the Eurozone had a slow start to the third quarter. Industrial production rose only 0.1% month-to-month in July, though the year-over-year rate was pushed up to 3.2% from a revised 2.8% in June.

15 Feb. 2016 Upbeat Q4 GDP Headline, but Private Demand Likely Slowed (Publication Centre)

Eurozone GDP data last Friday suggest the cyclical recovery continued at the end of last year. Real GDP in euro area rose 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, the same as in Q3, lifted by growth in all the major economies. This was in line with the consensus forecast, but noticeably higher than implied by monthly industrial production and retail sales data.

16 June 2020 China's Sturdy Q2 Rebound Spells GDP Upgrade, but at Q3's Expense (Publication Centre)

China's post-lockdown recovery broadly has surprised this quarter, particularly in the industrial sector.

16 March 2018 Housing Starts and Manufacturing Likely Shone in February (Publication Centre)

Today brings yet another broad array of data, with new information on housing construction, industrial production, consumer sentiment, and job openings.

16 May 2017 Manufacturing is Recovering, Despite the Hard and Soft Data Gap (Publication Centre)

The over-hyped mystery of the gap between the hard and soft data in the industrial economy has largely resolved itself in recent months.

17 Mar. 2015 Plunging Temperatures Boost Utilities, Depress Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

The February industrial production numbers were flattered by an enormous 7.3% jump in the output of electricity and gas utility companies, thanks to a surge in demand in the face of the extraordinarily cold weather. February this year was the coldest since at least 1997, when comparable data on population weighted heating degree days begin.

16 February 2017 Should investors rebalance toward EZ equities? (Publication Centre)

Increasingly, we are hearing equity strategists argue that investors should rebalance their portfolios toward EZ equities. On the surface, this looks like sound advice. Commodity prices have exited their depression, factory gate inflation pressures are rising, and global manufacturing output is picking up. These factors tell a bullish story for margins and earnings at large cap industrial and materials equities in the euro area.

16 Apr. 2015 Manufacturing constrained by the Oil capex collapse (Publication Centre)

More evidence emerged yesterday of the fading impact of the severe winter on the data, in the form of the strength of the NAHB survey and the weakness of the headline industrial production number.

12 Oct. 2015 French Manufacturing Output Likely Fell in Q3 - Q4 will b e Better (Publication Centre)

French industrial production data offered a bit of relief last week following a string of woeful German data, and news of monthly falls in Italian and Spanish manufacturing output. Industrial production jumped 1.6% month-to-month in August, but the headline was flattered by a 0.3% downward revision of the July data. The monthly jump pushed the year-over-year rate higher to 1.6%, from a revised 0.9% fall in July. All sectors performed strongly in August, but the key story was a hefty increase in transport equipment manufacturing, due to a 11.9% surge in vehicle production.

15 July. 2016 The Mexican Economy is at the Mercy of Softening Spending (Publication Centre)

Industrial data released this week showed that the Mexican economy stumbled during the second quarter. Private consumption, however, continues to rise, albeit at a more modest pace than in recent months. The ANTAD same store sales survey rose 5.3% year-over-year in June, up from 2.8% in May, but this is misleading.

15 September. 2016 Will September's Regional Surveys Follow the ISM's Drop? (Publication Centre)

Today's huge wall of data will add significantly to our understanding of third quarter economic growth, with new information on consumers' spending, industrial activity, inflation and business sentiment. In light of the unexpected drop in the ISM surveys in August, we are very keen to see the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys for September.

18 June 2019 Mr. Kuroda says Capex is Key for Japan's Economy How is it Doing (Publication Centre)

Japanese policymakers have a wary eye on the weakness in industrial production and exports.

12 February 2019 Mexican Manufacturing set to Struggle in the First Half (Publication Centre)

The Mexican industrial sector is struggling. December industrial output fell 0.4% month-to-month, the third consecutive drop, driven mainly by a similar decline in mining/oil output.

DUKASCOPY TV - Claus Vistesen discussing Italy's place in the Eurozone (Media Centre)

After disappointing Italian Industrial Output Data, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen discusses the current situation in the Eurozone.

07 October. 2016 Don't Mistake Volatility in Production and Trade for Underlying Strength (Publication Centre)

The consensus view that industrial production rose by a mere 0.1% month-to-month in August looks far too low; we expect today's report to reveal a jump of about 1%.

09 Mar. 2016 Production Still on a Downward Trend, Despite Likely January Rise (Publication Centre)

Figures released today look set to reveal that industrial production rose in January by the biggest percentage since August. But this will simply reflect a rebound in demand for heating energy after extreme weakness late last year. The oil and manufacturing sectors remain on course for an extremely challenging year.

1 August 2017 Chinese Second Half Looking Increasingly Stagflationary (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI, published on Monday, implies the industrial complex has maintained momentum going into Q3. The official manufacturing PMI moderated slightly to 51.4 in July from 51.7 in June. The July reading was unchanged from the average in Q2 and only modestly down from the 51.6 in Q1.

06 Jan. 2016 ADP Likely to Report Slower December Job Gains - Ignore it (Publication Centre)

None of today's four monthly economic reports will tell us much new about the outlook, and one of them--ADP employment--will tell us more about the past, but that won't stop markets obsessing over it. We have set out the problems with the ADP number in numerous previous Monitors, but, briefly, the key point is that it is generated from regression models which are heavily influenced by the previous month's official payroll numbers and other lagging data like industrial production, personal incomes, retail and trade sales, and even GDP growth. It is not based solely on the employment data taken from companies which use ADP for payroll processing, and it tends to lag the official numbers.

04 October. 2016 The August ISM Plunge was a Fluke, After all, What Happens Next? (Publication Centre)

The substantial, though incomplete, rebound in the September ISM manufacturing survey is consistent with our view that the outlook for the industrial economy right now is better than at any time since before the crash in oil prices

18 Mar. 2016 Medical Costs are Accelerating, but Goods Will Lift Core PCE Too (Publication Centre)

In the excitement over the FOMC meeting--all things are relative--we ran out of space to cover some of this week's other data, notably the PPI, industrial production and housing starts. They are worth a recap, given that only the Michigan sentiment report will be released today.

02 Mar. 2016 State and Local Government Construction Set to Boost Q1 GDP (Publication Centre)

Markets reacted strongly to yesterday's consensus-beating data, with the ISM manufacturing survey drawing most of the attention as the industrial recession thesis took another body blow. But we are more interested in the strong construction spending data for January, which set the first quarter off on a very strong note.

04 Jan. 2016 Uncertainty in Brazil Contrasts With Mexico's Benign Outlook (Publication Centre)

While we were out, Brazil's economic, fiscal and political position continued to deteriorate further. The recession deepened in the fourth quarter, with Brazil's economic activity index surprising yet again to the downside in October, falling for the eight consecutive month. The index fell 0.6% month-to-month and 6.4% year-over-year, the biggest contraction since the index began in 2004. And the prospects for first quarter consumption and industrial output have deteriorated substantially. Unemployment increased further in November, and inflation continues to rise, with the mid-month CPI--the IPCA-15 index-- increasing 1.2% month-to-month in November, after a 0.9% increase in October.

1 December. 2016 ISM Set to Show that Manufacturing is Recovering, Albeit Slowly (Publication Centre)

We have lost count of the number of times the drop in the ISM manufacturing survey, in the wake of the plunge in oil prices, was a harbinger o f recession across the whole economy. It wasn't, because the havoc wreaked in the industrial economy by the collapse in capital spending in the oil sector was contained.

10 January 2017 The German Economy Fired on All Cylinders in the Fourth Quarter (Publication Centre)

Survey data have been signalling a stronger German economy in the last few months, and hard data are beginning to confirm this story. Data yesterday showed that industrial production rose 0.4% month-to-month in November, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 2.2%, from an upwardly-revised 1.6% in October. The headline was boosted mainly by a 1.5% month-to-month jump in construction and a 0.9% rise in intermediate goods production.

11 January 2018 Will France Reap the Rewards of Supply-Side Reforms in 2018? (Publication Centre)

Momentum in French manufacturing eased slightly in November, but the setback was modest. Industrial production dipped 0.5% month-to-month, only partially reversing the revised 1.7% jump in October.

11 May. 2016 German GDP Growth Likely Rose Strongly in the First Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production data in Germany were downbeat. Output fell 1.3% month-to-month in March, pushing the year-over-over rate down to 0.3%, from 2.0% in February. Production was held back by weakness in manufacturing and a plunge in construction, Meanwhile, energy output rebounded slightly following last month's fall. Over Q1 as a whole, though, the industrial sector performed strongly.

12 February 2018 Chinese Inflation Moderates but Real Incomes are Under Pressure (Publication Centre)

Chinese CPI inflation trends point to diminishing wage growth, as the services sector begins to struggle with the influx of labour displaced by the industrial productivity drive.

11 January 2017 Slowdown in C&I Loan Growth Worrisome? (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the slowdown in bank loan growth to commercial and industrial companies over the past two years looks alarming. In the year to November, the stock of loans outstanding rose by 8.0%, the smallest gain since January 2014. A further decline in the year-over-year rate, taking it below the rate of growth of nominal GDP--we expect 4.7% in the first quarter--for the first time in six years, is now a fair bet. The three- and six-month annualized growth rates of C&I lending in November were just 6.2% and 4.7% respectively, and still falling.

11 January 2017 France Joins Germany in Picking up Momentum at the End of 2016 (Publication Centre)

Another day, another solid economic report in the Eurozone. Data yesterday showed that industrial production in France jumped 2.2% month-to-month in November, pushing the year-over-year rate up to +1.8%, from -1.8% in October. The 2.3% jump in manufacturing output was the key story, offsetting a 0.3% decline in construction activity. Production of food and beverages rebounded from weakness in October, and oil refining also accelerated.

10 January 2018 Production Likely Rose in November Before Plunging in December (Publication Centre)

The stagnation of industrial production in October ended a run of six consecutive month-to-month increases, the longest spell of unbroken growth since 1994.

10 July 2017 Q2 GDP Growth is Set to Fall Short of the MPC's Expectations (Publication Centre)

Last week's industrial production and construction output figures for May were surprisingly weak. They have compelled us to revise down our expectation for the preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, from 0.3% previously.

10 May 2017 German GDP Growth Likely Accelerated in the First Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data in Germany cemented the story of a strong start to the year, despite the disappointing headlines. Industrial production slipped 0.4% month-to-month in March, pushing the year-over-year rate down to +1.9% from a revised +2.0% in February.

12 January 2017 GDP Growth Likely Edged Down in Q4, Despite November's IP Surge (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production, construction output and trade data for November collectively suggest that the economy lost a little momentum in the fourth quarter. GDP growth likely slowed to 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, from 0.6% in Q3. Growth remains set to slow further this year, as inflation shoots up and constrains consumers.

8 July 2019 Will the Weakness of Mexican Capex and Consumption Continue? (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirmed that Mexico's economy stumbled in the first half of the year, hurt by a temporary shocks in both the industrial and services sectors, and heightened political uncertainty, due to policy mistakes at the outset of AMLO's presidency.

4 May 2018 A Solid Start to the Year for Chile's Economy, Will the Trend Continue? (Publication Centre)

This week's March economic activity reports in Chile have been relatively strong, with the industrial sector expanding briskly and retail sales solid.

4 Nov. 2015 Mexico's Economy Solid in Q3 - Soft Manufacturing No Threat Yet (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy had a decent start to the second half of the year, thanks to resilient domestic demand, amid signs of recovery in industrial activity. GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, a bit faster than in Q2, lifting the year-over-year rate to 2.4% from 2.2% in Q2. This is the first time the statistics office, INEGI, published an advance reading on GDP, reducing the time between the end of the quarter to the report date to 30 days from 52.

5 December 2017 ISM Non-manufacturing Set for Clear Correction. Don't Worry (Publication Centre)

Last week's strong ISM manufacturing survey for November likely will be followed by robust data for the non-manufacturing sector today, but the headline index, like its industrial counterpart, likely will dip a bit.

5 February 2018 Chile to Perform Well this Year, Fundamentals are Improving (Publication Centre)

Early last week, Chile's industrial production report for December encouraged some market participants to expect further BCCh easing.

30 October 2018 Are Chinese Pro ts Normalising But the Headwinds Remain (Publication Centre)

Chinese headline industrial profits data show that growth slowed to just 4.1% year-over-year in September, from 9.2% in August.

18 Nov. 2015 Weak Manufacturing Won't Push the EZ Economy into Recession (Publication Centre)

Historical evidence suggests that we should be worried about the relative weakness in the Eurozone's manufacturing sector. Industrial production ex-construction has historically been a key indicator of the business cycle, despite accounting for a comparatively modest 19% of total value-added in the euro area. In all three previous major downturns, underperformance in the manufacturing sector sounded the alarm six-to-nine months in advance that the economy was about to slip into recession.

3 Mar. 2015 Weak Euro Boosts Orders for Manufacturers (Publication Centre)

Industrial companies in the Eurozone are still struggling with low growth, but the outlook is stabilising following the near-recession late last year. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 51.0 in February, trivially lower than the initial estimate of 51.1.

3 May 2017 EZ Q1 GDP Growth Likely won't Live up to the Soaring Surveys (Publication Centre)

Survey data point to a very strong headline, 0.6%-to-0.7% quarter-on-quarter, in today's Q1 advance Eurozone GDP report. But the hard data have been less ebullient than the surveys. A GDP regression using retail sales, industrial production and construction points to a more modest 0.4% increase, implying a slowdown from the upwardly-revised 0.5% gain in Q4.

3 Nov. 2015 Manufacturing Unlikely to be Past the Worst (Publication Centre)

The sharp and unexpected improvement in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey in October released on Monday raised hopes that the recession in the industrial sector might be over. A cool look at the evidence, however, suggests that this probably is just wishful thinking.

6 April 2017 ADP Likely Overstates Payrolls, ISM Non-manufacturing Understates (Publication Centre)

We don't directly plug the ADP employment data into our model for the official payroll number. ADP's estimate is derived itself from a model which incorporates lagged official payroll data, because payrolls tend to mean-revert, as well as macroeconomic variables including oil prices, industrial production and jobless claims -- and actual employment data from firms which use ADP's payroll processing services.

7 July 2017 Production Likely Jumped in May, but Q2 GDP Still Will b e Soft (Publication Centre)

Markets likely will be particularly sensitive to May's industrial production and construction output figures, released today, as they will provide a guide to the strength of the preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP, released shortly before the MPC's key meeting on August 3.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not pretty; downside risks remain for industrial production in Q2.

LatAm Datanote: Final GDP, Mexico, Q4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A weak end to the year, due to falling industrial activity.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Trade, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: The inventory-related slump in export demand nearly is over; industrial production will bounce back in the summer.

01 Feb. 2016 Mexico's Mining Sector Still a Drag, Services Doing the Work (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy lost some momentum in Q4, due mainly to weakness in industrial and agricultural activity, but this was partly offset by the strength of the services sector as consumers' spending again carried the economic recovery. Real GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, after a 0.8% expansion in Q3, the tenth consecutive increase. Year-over-year growth dipped marginally to 2.5% from 2.6% in Q3, but the underlying trend remains stable. In 2015 as a whole the economy expanded by 2.5%, up from 2.3% in 2014.

9 May. 2016 More Timely EZ GDP Data also Means Larger Revisions (Publication Centre)

The trade-off between the timeliness and accuracy of the data is fundamental to macroeconomic analysis. Coincident data such as GDP, industrial production and retail sales are the most direct measures of economic activity, but their first estimates don't always tell the full story.

9 July 2018 Evidence is Mounting that German Manufacturing did Well in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production data in Germany added to the manufacturing optimism following the sharp rise in new orders--see here--reported earlier in the week.

8 July. 2016 German Economy Likely Stalled in Q2, but Don't Forget the Q1 Surge (Publication Centre)

German GDP growth jumped in the first quarter, but monthly economic data suggest the economy all but stalled in Q2. Yesterday's industrial production data are a case in point. Output slid 1.3% month-tomonth in May, pushing the year-over-year rate down to -0.4% from a revised 0.8% gain in April. Adding insult to injury, the month-to-month number for April was revised down by 0.3 percentage points

8 Oct. 2015 Weak, but Stable, Trend in German Manufacturing Investment in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterdays' industrial production report capped a poor week for German manufacturing. Output fell 1.2% month-to-month in August, well below the consensus, +0.2%, though note that a 0.5% upward revision to the July data made the August headline look worse. Similar to the factory orders report earlier this week--see our October 6th Monitor--base effects also mean that production accelerated to 2.5% year-over-year, from a revised 0.8% gain in July.

9 Dec. 2014 Stable, But not Yet Signs of Strong Growth in the German Economy (Publication Centre)

The German manufacturing sector is showing signs of stabilisation with industrial production rising 0.2% month-on-month in October, equivalent to 0.8% year-over- year. This is consistent with a decent retracement in production this quarter, but growth is still only barely above zero.

29 Jan. 2016 Little to Console the Optimists in Fourth Quarter GDP (Publication Centre)

The preliminary estimate of a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter rise in GDP in Q4 slightly exceeded our expectation and the third quarter's growth rate, both 0.4%. Nonetheless, there was little to console the optimists in the figures. The recovery remains unbalanced, with industrial production and construction output falling by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, while services output rose 0.7% quarter-on-quarter.

3 Sept 2019 Don't Rely on the Manufacturing PMI for an Accurate Read in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The fall in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI to 47.4 in August--its lowest level since July 2012--from 48.0 in July suggests that pre-Brexit stockpiling isn't countering the hit to demand from Brexit uncertainty and the global industrial slowdown.

28 Oct. 2015 Domestic Data Point to Robust Third Quarter Growth in Mexico (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy is recovering gradually, despite many external headwinds. This week, the IGAE economic activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--rose a solid 2.6% year-over-year in August, up from 2.0% in July. In the first half the economy grew on average 2.4%. The report showed increases in all three sectors, most notably agriculture, up 8.2% year-over-year, followed by services, 3.3%, and industrial activities, with a 1.0% gain.

21 Oct. 2015 Colombia Resilient in the Face of External Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Colombia's industrial and retail sectors surprised to the upside in August, suggesting that the domestic economy has been resilient during most of the third quarter, despite the hit from an array of external headwinds. Industrial production increased by a solid 2.6% year-over-year in August, up from an upwardly revised 0.6% expansion in July, and above its recent trend. In the first half of the year, industrial activity fell on average by 1.1%, the worst performance since 2013, due mainly to the oil hit and ex tended works at Reficar, the country's second biggest oil refinery. But Colombia's manufacturers appear to have shrugged off part of the oil pain in recent months.

21 Sept. 2015 Don't Focus on Industry - The U.S. is a Domestic Services Economy (Publication Centre)

The economy is bifurcating. Manufacturing is weak, and likely will remain so for some time, though talk of recession in the sector is overdone. Even more overdone is the idea that the softness of the industrial sector will somehow drag down the rest of the economy, which is more than seven times bigger.

22 July. 2015 The Economic Recovery in Spain is Real, But Can it Last? (Publication Centre)

We have to pinch ourselves when looking at economic data in Spain at the moment. Real GDP rose a dizzying 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, driven by solid gains of 0.7% and 1.1% in consumer's spending and investment respectively. Retail sales and industrial production data indicate GDP growth remained strong in Q2, even if survey data lost some momentum towards the end of the quarter. We will be looking for signs of further moderation in Q3, but surging private deposit growth indicate the cyclical recovery will continue.

20 Feb. 2015 Data Surprises Don't Tell Us Much About the Economy (Publication Centre)

At the headline level, much of the recent U.S. macro dataflow has been disappointing. January retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, and both ISM surveys--manufacturing and non-manufacturing-- undershot consensus, following a sharp and unexpected drop in December durable goods orders.

2 September. 2016 German Manufacturing is Doing Well, but Others are Struggling (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final EZ PMIs imply that growth in manufacturing slowed marginally in August. The PMI fell to 51.7, from 52.0 in July, trivially below the initial estimate, 51.8. Output and new orders growth declined, pushing down the pace of new job growth. But we think the hard data for industrial production in Q3 as a whole will be decent.

2 August. 2016 EZ Manufacturing Was Resilient in July, But Only Thanks to Germany (Publication Centre)

Industrial sector activity in the euro area was broadly stable at the beginning of the third quarter, despite the headline dip in the July manufacturing PMI. The Eurozone index fell to 52.0 in July, from 52.8 in June, but if it holds at this level it will be unchanged in Q3 compared with the second quarter.

2 February 2017 Greece is another EZ risk to contend with this year (Publication Centre)

The Greek economy escaped recession in the second half of last year. Real GDP rose a cumulative 1.2% in Q2 and Q3, following a 0.6% fall in Q1. And industrial production and retail sales data suggest that the advance GDP report released later this month will show that the momentum was sustained in Q4. Headline survey data, however, indicate that downside risks to the economy remain.

2 October 2018 How Bad Was the Hit to EZ Auto Production in Q3? (Publication Centre)

The industrial sector in the EZ slowed further at the end of Q3.

22 May. 2015 Brazil, Overshadowed by Mexico During The First Quarter--Again (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy stuttered at the start of the year. Real GDP rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, after a solid 0.7% in the fourth quarter. Q1 activity was supported by the services sector, rising 0.5%, offsetting the 0.2% contraction in industrial activity.

20 Nov. 2015 Will Corporate Yields Become a Good Leading Indicator Again? (Publication Centre)

In the years before the crash of 2008, if you wanted to know what was likely to happen to the pace of U.S. economic growth, all you needed to know was what happened to corporate bond yields a year earlier. The correlation between movements in BBB industrial yields--not spreads--and the changes in the rate of GDP growth, lagged by a year, was remarkably strong from 1994 through 2008, as our first chart shows. Roughly, a 50 basis point increase in yields could be expected to reduce the pace of year-over-year GDP growth--the second differential, in other words--by about 1.5 percentage points.

22 Nov 2019 Soft Manufacturing in France, but Robust Services and Construction (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of survey data in France suggests that business sentiment in the industrial sector remained soft mid-way through Q4, but the numbers are more uncertain than usual this month.

28 April 2017 Current Account in Brazil Still Improving, But not for Long (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recovery has been steady in recent months, and Q1 likely will mark the end of the recession. The gradual recovery of the industrial and agricultural sectors has been the highlight, thanks to improving external demand, the lagged effect of the more competitive BRL, and the more stable political situation, which has boosted sentiment.

27 Nov 2019 The GM Strike Likely Depressed October Orders, Core Soft too? (Publication Centre)

Today's wave of data will bring new information on the industrial sector, consumers, the labor market, and housing, as well as revisions to the third quarter GDP numbers.

28 June 2018 How will the Chinese Authorities Respond as Pro ts Growth Slows (Publication Centre)

Industrial profits growth is closely watched by the Chinese authorities, even more so now that deleveraging is a prime policy aim.

26 July. 2016 The German Economy Stalled in Q2, But Should Rebound in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The German statistical office will supply a confidential estimate to Eurostat for this week's advance euro area Q2 GDP data. Our analysis suggests this number will be grim, and weigh on the aggregate EZ estimate. Our GDP model, which includes data for retail sales, industrial production and net exports, forecasts that real GDP in Germany contracted 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, after a 0.7% jump in Q1.

24 Jan 2020 Don't Worry About the Downshift in Bank Lending to Businesses, it Lags (Publication Centre)

You could be forgiven for being alarmed at the 1.5% decline in the stock of outstanding bank commercial and industrial lending in the fourth quarter, the first dip since the second quarter of 2017.

24 April 2018 Surveys are Stronger than Hard Data, but with no Common Cause (Publication Centre)

The levelling-off in the industrial surveys in recent months is reflected in the consumer sentiment numbers. Anything can happen in any given month, but we'd now be surprised to see sustained further gains in any of the regular monthly surveys.

25 Mar. 2015 PMIs point strengthening cyclical recovery (Publication Centre)

Evidence is mounting that the cyclical recovery in the Eurozone accelerated further in the first quarter. The Composite PMI in the euro area rose to 54.1 in March, up from 53.3 in February, taking the quarterly average to 53.3, its highest level since the second quarter of 2011. Combined with latest available retail sales and industrial production data, this is consistent with real GDP growth in the euro area accelerating to about 0.4-to-0.5% quarter-on quarter in the first quarter, from 0.3% in Q4.

23 Nov. 2015 Domestic Demand Offsets External Woes in Mexico and Colombia (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy gathered momentum in Q3, thanks mainly to solid gains in industrial and services activity. Real GDP rose 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, the fastest pace since Q3 2013 and the ninth consecutive increase. Year-over-year growth rose to 2.6% year-over-year, from 2.3% in Q2. In short, a positive report, surprising to the upside, and above the INEGI's advance estimate, released in late October.

Guardian - UK factory output grows at fastest rate since mid-1990s (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey

REUTERS - UK manufacturing outlook darkens, retail sales slip (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. Manufacturing

Financial Times - Eurozone investors turn positive for first time in eight months (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on sentix in December

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