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Search Results: 54
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28 July 2020 Restaurants are Not as Full as OpenTable Data Suggest (Publication Centre)

Tracking the consumer services sector has become more important since Covid-19, as it was flattened by the lockdown in Q2 and it might prove to be an incubator of new infections, if it becomes too busy.

25 Feb 2020 EZ Markets are Now Seriously Worried about Coronavirus (Publication Centre)

Yesterday was a watershed moment for investors.

29 Jan 2020 We Hear You Mme President, but We Still Think You're on Autopilot (Publication Centre)

Our ECB-story since Ms. Lagarde took the helm as president has been that the central bank will do as little as possible through 2020, at least in terms of shifting its major policy tools.

3 July 2020 Can Any Valuable Information be Extracted from the PMIs? (Publication Centre)

The release today of the final reading of the composite PMI for June will provoke further debate over its usefulness in charting the economy's recovery from the Covid-19 shock.

3 Nov 2020 Covid will be Too Prevalent in December to Return to October's Lax Rules (Publication Centre)

It is highly unlikely that Britain will be able to return at the start of December to the light-touch restrictions that failed meaningfully to curb the transmission of Covid-19 last month.

24 Jan 2020 Ms. Lagarde Treads Water as the ECB Formally Unveils its Review (Publication Centre)

The ECB conformed to expectations today, at least on a headline level.

23 September 2016 French Manufacturing Confidence Rebounds Solidly in September (Publication Centre)

French manufacturers recovered their optimism towards the end of Q3. The headline INSEE manufacturing sentiment index rose to 103 in September, from 101 in August, and the composite business confidence gauge also increased. A rebound in transport equipment firms' own production expectations was the key driver of the recovery.

23 Mar 2020 Japan's Threat to Global Financial Markets in this Massive Real Shock (Publication Centre)

The Covid-19 shock to the real economy in China, and now the world, is colossal. Asia is leading the downturn, both because the outbreak started in China, but also because of its place in the supply chain.

22 Oct 2020 Very Low CPI Inflation Reflects More than Just Indirect Tax Cuts (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation picked up to 0.5% in September, from 0.2% in August, when the Eat Out to Help Out Scheme was running.

23 Mar 2020 The Growth of European Covid-19 Cases Slowed Sharply Yesterday (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of new coronavirus infections across Europe slowed yesterday, in some cases quite markedly. We can quibble about the reliability of the data in individual countries, given variations in testing regimes, but the picture is strikingly uniform.

23 Mar 2020 We're Updating our Forecasts, Take them With a Pinch of Salt (Publication Centre)

Economists' forecasts are changing almost as quickly as market prices these days, and not for the better.

23 Mar 2020 Brace for an Unprecedented Slump in the Composite PMI (Publication Centre)

The drop in the flash composite PMI in March will be one for the record books, unfortunately. We look for an unprecedented drop to 43.0, from 53.3 in February, which would undershoot the 45.0 consensus and signal clearly that a deep recession is underway.

3 Sep 2020 The German Consumer is in Good Shape, Relatively Speaking (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, yesterday's German consumption data were disappointingly weak.

30 Jan 2020 Coronavirus Raises the Risks of a Technical Recession in Japan (Publication Centre)

Japan is one of the countries most exposed to economic damage from the coronavirus.

6 July 2020 The EZ PMIs are Still Improving, but that Doesn't Tell us Much (Publication Centre)

Friday's final June PMI data confirmed the survey's recovery through Q2. The composite index edged higher to 48.5, from 31.9 in May, extending its rebound from a low of just 13.6 in April.

6 Aug 2020 The Recovery will Decelerate Sharply in the Autumn (Publication Centre)

A range of indicators show that the pace of the economic recovery shifted up a gear in July, when all shops were open for the entire month, and most consumer services providers finally were permitted to reopen.

7 June 2019 GDP Likely Fell Again in April, But the Pain Will Be All in Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

April's GDP report, released on Monday, likely will add fuel to the fire of the re cent sharp decline in interest rate expectations.

8 Sept 2020 July GDP to Show V-Shaped Recovery Remains Elusive (Publication Centre)

We expect July's GDP report, released on Friday, to show that overall output rose by about 7.0% month-to-month, bringing it to 11.5% below its pre-Covid peak.

9 June 2020 Assessing the Magnitude of April's Collapse in GDP (Publication Centre)

April's GDP report probably will be the worst any of us will see in our lifetime.

6 Aug 2020 Strong EZ PMIs and Retail Sales Overstate the Economy's Strength (Publication Centre)

Judging solely by yesterday's PMI and retail sales data, the EZ economy has shaken off the virus and is going from strength to strength.

5 Oct 2020 August GDP Will Prompt the MPC to Reappraise the Recovery's Strength (Publication Centre)

August's GDP report, released on Friday, looks set to reinforce the downward pressure on gilt yields by making it even more likely that the MPC will extend its QE programme later this year.

30 June 2020 Covid-19 has had a Limited Impact on German Core inflation, for Now (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance CPI data in Germany suggest that EZ inflation is now rebounding slightly.

31 July 2020 Covid-19 Brought Mexico's Economy to its Knees, and the Outlook is Grim (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of Q2 GDP in Mexico confirmed that the economy has been under severe stress in recent months.

31 July 2020 Every Employment Indicator is Continuing to Glow Bright Red (Publication Centre)

We remain concerned that huge job losses are imminent, slowing the economic recovery after a mid-summer spurt.

5 June 2020. Upside Risk to Payrolls Today, Downside for Unemployment, AHE (Publication Centre)

We set out the reasoning behind the big upward revision to our payroll forecast yesterday, in the wake of the much better-than-expected ADP report.

20 Feb 2020 Domestically-Generated Inflation Will Rise Further, Ruling Out a Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

The market-implied probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate by June fell to 34%, from 38%, after the release of January's consumer price figures, though investors still see around an 80% chance of a cut by the end of this year.

2 Nov 2020 Consensus-Beating Q3 GDP Data are a False Dawn for the EZ (Publication Centre)

Friday's data deluge delivered uplifting, if backward- looking, news in the EZ economy. Eurostat's advance report showed that GDP jumped by 12.7% quarter-on- quarter in Q3, partially reversing the cumulative 15.5% collapse during lockdown in the first half of the year.

13 Jan 2020 Downside Risk to the Consensus for December's CPI Report (Publication Centre)

December's consumer prices report looks set to show that CPI inflation was stable at 1.5%--in line with the consensus--though the risks are skewed to the downside.

13 April 2018 French Inflation is Shooting Higher (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures in France increased significantly at the start of the year.

13 Nov 2020 GDP Likely won't Return to September's Level Until the Spring (Publication Centre)

The economic recovery slowed to a snail's pace in September, with GDP merely rising by 1.1% on a month-to-month basis and languishing 8.6% below its January 2020 peak, even though virtually all businesses had resumed trading and Covid-19 restrictions were light touch.

14 Feb 2020 Japan's Q4 GDP Likely Plunged, Covid-19 Spells Recession (Publication Centre)

Japan's GDP likely dropped by a huge 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, after the 0.5% increase in Q3, with risks skewed firmly to the downside.

14 May 2020 GDP Likely Fell even Further in April than March Data Imply (Publication Centre)

We take little comfort from the fact that the 2.0% quarter-on-quarter drop in Q1 GDP was a bit smaller than the consensus forecast, 2.5%, and the 3.0% fall pencilled-in by the MPC in its Monetary Policy Report.

12 Oct 2020 The Recovery was Stalling Even Before the Second Wave (Publication Centre)

August's GDP report represented a fatal blow to the V-shaped recovery thesis.

12 May 2020 What's to Become of EZ GDP With a Hamstrung Services Sector (Publication Centre)

All major EZ governments are now in the process of lifting lockdowns, but investors should expect less a grand opening, more of a careful tip-toeing.

10 Nov 2020 GDP Likely Grew Slowly in September, but the Consensus is too Downbeat (Publication Centre)

September's GDP report, released on Thursday, looks set to show the economic recovery ended Q3 with little momentum.

10 Mar 2020 Virus-related Collapse in Services Spending to Trigger Q2 GDP Drop (Publication Centre)

We're now starting to see clear signs in unofficial data that households are slashing their expenditure on discretionary services, in order to minimise their chances of catching the coronavirus.

11 Aug 2020 Britain's Recovery Likely Quickened in June, but Still Lagged its Peers (Publication Centre)

We expect June's GDP data, released on Wednesday, to show that the economic recovery gathered momentum in June, having got off to a faltering start in May.

11 Feb 2020 What's Happened to the Wage- Price Link? (Publication Centre)

At first glance, the continued weakness of domestically-generated inflation, despite punchy increases in labour costs, is puzzling.

12 Dec 2019 Spare a Moment for Ms. Lagarde, as We Await the Final U.K. Polls (Publication Centre)

The U.K. general election is the main event in today's European calendar, but the first official ECB meeting and press conference under the leadership of Ms. Lagarde also deserves attention.

10 June 2020 No Formal Yield Curve Control Announcement Today. Probably. (Publication Centre)

We would be surprised, but not astonished, if the Fed were to announce a shift to explicit yield curve control at today's meeting.

15 Aug 2019 Rising Domestically-Generated Inflation is Tying the MPC's Hands (Publication Centre)

The unexpected rise in CPI inflation to 2.1% in July--well above the Bank of England's 1.8% forecast and the 1.9% consensus--from 2.0% in June undermines the case for expecting the MPC to cut Bank Rate, in the event that a no-deal Brexit is avoided.

17 Sept 2020 Inflation to Stay Below 1%, Despite Little Impact from the VAT Cut (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation fell to 0.2% in August, from 1.0% in July, but exceeded our forecast and the consensus, both zero.

17 Mar 2020 Bolder Policy Action Required to Prevent a Prolonged Recession (Publication Centre)

Signs that the economy has been crippled by people's response to the Covid-19 outbreak continued to emerge yesterday.

18 October 2017 Core Inflation in the EZ Dipped in September, but the Trend is Rising (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final CPI report in the Eurozone confirmed that headline inflation was unchanged at 1.5% in September.

19 Nov 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Won't Breach 2% in 2021 (Publication Centre)

The pick-up in CPI inflation to 0.7% in October, from 0.5% in September, does not mark the start of a sustained uptrend.

2 Apr 2020 Tankan Implies a Severe Tightening of Japan's Financial Conditions (Publication Centre)

The Q1 Tankan survey headlines were close to our expectations, chiming with our call for year-over-year contraction in Japanese GDP of at least 2%, after the 0.7% decline in Q4.

15 June 2020 The Recovery in GDP will Lose Momentum as the Year Drags On (Publication Centre)

The economy will be a shadow of its former self over the remainder of this year, following the heavy pummelling from Covid-19.

17 Feb 2020 January CPI Inflation Set to Undershoot the MPC's Forecast (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation surprises look set to trigger larger- than-usual market reactions over the coming months, given that the MPC emphasised last month that it wants to see domestically-generated inflation rebound swiftly, after falling suddenly late last year, in order to justify keeping Bank Rate on hold.

15 Sept 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Fell to a Near- Zero Rate in August (Publication Centre)

August's consumer prices report, due on Wednesday, is harder to forecast than usual, given high uncertainty regarding the impact of the cut in VAT for the hospitality sector, as well as the consequences of the ONS' decision to resume collecting data from physical stores.

15 Sept 2020 Has the EZ Reached a Ceiling for its Post-Covid-19 Rebound (Publication Centre)

The return of the virus in the Eurozone isn't what the economy needed, but we continue to think it differs from the first shock, for three key reasons.

16 Jan 2020 CPI Inflation Will Rebound in Q1, Weakening the Case for Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The market-implied probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate at its meeting on January 30 jumped to 63%, from 44%, following the release of December's consumer prices report.

16 Oct 2020 France's September CPI Adds to the Pressure on EZ Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed French CPI data for September added to evidence of softening core inflation in the Eurozone.

16 Mar 2020 The Inflation Outlook won't Stop the MPC from Easing Further (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus outbreak and its associated movements in asset prices have radically changed the outlook for CPI inflation, which ultimately the MPC is tasked with targeting.

Question of the Week, WC 16th November 2020 (Media Centre)

Would CPI Inflation be above the 2% target, if the government had not cut VAT?

Consistently Right

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