Search Results: 17
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17 matches for "Advance Inflation":
In one line: Soft; we still don't know what is going on with the core rate.
In one line: Stable, but the core rate probably fell a bit.
In one line: Boosted by a jump in energy inflation; more upside ahead in Q1.
In one line: Forget the headline; the core rate fell sharply.
In one line: Trust the national core rate, and the HICP headline rate.
In one line: Hit by the unwinding of Easter-distortions, but still a big dip.
In one line: Big rebound in services inflation; non-energy goods inflation is flat-lining.
In one line: Core inflation is flirting with a break into a new, and higher, range.
In one line: EZ inflation is picking up; retail sales look misleadingly strong given base effects in Q4.
In one line: Soft CPI data, but temporary distortions are depressing the core.
In one line: Easter distortions drove services inflation higher; the core goods CPI is still subdued
Advance inflation data on Friday added to the gloom on the Eurozone economy. Reports from Germany, France, and Spain all surprised to the downside, indicating the euro area as a whole slipped back into deflation in February. Inflation in Germany dipped to 0.0% year-over-year in February, from 0.5% in January, and France slid back into deflation as the CPI index fell 0.2%, down from a 0.2 increase last month.
Advance inflation data in the Eurozone will likely surprise to the upside today. The consensus forecast expects inflation to rise slightly to -0.5% year-over-year in February from -0.6% in January, but we expect a much bigger jump, to -0.2% year-over-year.
Yesterday's advance inflation data in Germany fell short of forecasts--ours and the consensus--for a further increase. Inflation was unchanged at 0.8% year-over-year in November, but we think this pause will be temporary.
Advance inflation data from Germany and Spain indicate that the Eurozone slipped into deflation last month, piling maximum pressure on Mr. Draghi later this month. Inflation in the euro area's largest economy fell to 0.2% year-over-year in December from 0.6% in November, driven by a 6.6% plunge in the energy component.
Economic survey data have been upbeat recently, but key Eurozone data releases yesterday suggest the ECB will be under pressure to increase monetary policy stimulus further this month. The advance inflation estimate showed that the euro area slipped back into deflation in September, as inflation fell to -0.1% year-over- year, from +0.1% in August. The fall was mainly due to a 8.9% collapse in energy prices, though, and we are very confident the relapse is temporary.
Advance inflation data from Germany and Spain yesterday indicate that the Eurozone slipped back into deflation in September. German inflation fell to 0.0% in September from 0.2% in August, and deflation intensified in Spain as inflation fell to -0.9% from -0.4% last month. This likely pushed the advance Eurozone estimate--released today--below zero. We think inflation fell to -0.1% in September, down from +0.1% in August. The fall will be due mainly to falling energy prices, and we continue to think that the underlying trend in inflation is stabilising, or even turning up.
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