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27 January 2017 Trump's Plans Will Collide With Reality, But Mexico Will Suffer (Publication Centre)

U.S. President Trump on Wednesday signed an executive order aimed at delivering on his campaign pledge to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border. The executive order also includes measures to boost border patrol forces and increase the number of immigration enforcement officers. As previous U.S. presidents have discovered, however, signing an executive order is one thing and fulfilling it is something else. President Obama, for instance, signed an executive order to close the Guantanamo detention facility on his second day in office.

25 October 2018 Trump Assails the Fed, Again Mr. Powell can't Afford to Blink (Publication Centre)

The president was on the warpath with the Fed again yesterday, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal.

9 July. 2015 Steep Wall of Worry in EZ Equities, But Macro Indicators Say "Buy" (Publication Centre)

Bond market volatility and political turmoil in Greece have been the key drivers of an abysmal second quarter for Eurozone equities. Recent panic in Chinese markets has further increased the pressure, adding to the wall of worry for investors. A correction in stocks is not alarming, though, following the surge in Q1 from the lows in October. The total return-- year-to-date in euros--for the benchmark MSCI EU ex-UK index remains a respectable 11.4%.

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Ian Shepherdson wins US Forecasters award, 2014 (Media Centre)

The Wall Street Journal is pleased to annouce that Ian Shepherdson, of Pantheon Macroeconomics, has won the US Forecaster of 2014 award.

23 January 2017 The Fed's Idea of Full Employment is not the Same as Main Street's (Publication Centre)

Full employment is a deceptively simple-sounding concept. If everyone who wants a job has one, the economy is at full employment, right? Anything less tends to raise eyebrows among non-economists, whether the people who want a job are formally inside the labor force, or have dropped out but would come back if they thought they could find work.

21 May 2019 Chile's Economy Struggled in Q1, and the Near-Term Outlook is Poor (Publication Centre)

Chile's Q1 GDP report, released yesterday, confirmed that the economy weakened sharply at the beginning of the year, due mainly to temporary shocks, including adverse weather conditions.

19 Aug 2019 Resistance is Futile in the EZ Fixed Income Bull Market... For Now (Publication Centre)

The ECB's communication to markets has been clear this year. In Q1, the central bank changed its stance on the economy towards an emphasis on "downside risks to the outlook".

3 July 2018 Tariffs and Truck Shortages are Creating Industrial Bottlenecks (Publication Centre)

The startling jump in supplier delivery times in the June ISM manufacturing survey, to a 14-year high, was due--according to the ISM press release--to disruptions to steel and aluminum supplies, transportation problems and "supplier labor issues".

WALL STREET JOURNAL - ISM Services Report Alleviates Market's Economic Anxiety (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest ISM Non-Manufacturing data release

WALL STREET JOURNAL - ISM Service-Sector Index Eases in May (Media Centre)

Chief US economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest ISM nonmanufacturing data

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Economists react to the May jobs report: "Unambiguously Positive" (Media Centre)

Chief US economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest Jobs report

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Economists react to the May jobs report: "Unambiguously Positive" (Media Centre)

Chief US economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest Jobs report

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Economists react to the May jobs report: "Unambiguously Positive" (Media Centre)

Chief US economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest Jobs report

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Jobless Claims Rise Slightly in April 18 Week (Media Centre)

Chief US Economist Ian Shepherdson on today's Inital Jobless Claims data

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Snow Weighs on Home-Builder Confidence, But It's No Polar Vortex (Media Centre)

"We know from last year's experience during the polar vortex, when the headline index fell 10 points, that the NAHB survey is extremely susceptible to severe weather, so we can't right now view it as a reliable indicator of the underlying trend in housing market activity," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a note to clients.

Wall Street Journal - U.S. Durable-Goods Orders Post Biggest Jump in a Year (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Durable Goods Orders

WALL STREET JOURNAL - U.S. Home-Builder Confidence Climbs in September, Industry Group Says (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson comments on US Home-builders data

WALL STREET JOURNAL - U.S. Home-Builder Confidence Hits Near-Decade High (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson on positive data from U.S. Home-Builders

WALL STREET JOURNAL - U.S. Jobless Claims Decline (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Unemployment

WALL STREET JOURNAL - U.S. Producer Prices Climbed, Boosted by Pricier Energy (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Producer Prices

Wall Street Journal - U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Hold Below 300,000 for Longest Streak on Record (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Jobless Claims

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Economists React to the January Fed Statement: 'The Door is Still Open to a June Hike' (Media Centre)

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday it would keep short-term interest rates near zero until at least the middle of the year. The central bank's policy committee also signaled caution about low inflation and nodded to overseas uncertainty by including new language that it would monitor international developments. Here's how economists reacted

WALL STREET JOURNAL - U.K. Pay Growth Flattens Off (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on Pay Growth and Unemployment

WALL STREET JOURNAL - U.S. Construction Spending Surges (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson comments on strong construction data

WALL STREET JOURNAL - U.S. Pending Home Sales Drop in December (Media Centre)

The U.S. housing market stumbled into 2015 as a leading indicator of home sales dipped in December

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Economists React to First-Quarter GDP: 'Pretty Lackluster' (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Q1 GDP

14 December. 2016 No Change in Median Dots, Yellen Will Stonewall on Fiscal Easing (Publication Centre)

The Fed will raise rates by 25bp today, but we expect no change in the median expectation-the dotplot-for two rate hikes both next year and in 2018. We fully appreciate that fiscal easing on the scale proposed by President-elect Trump, or indeed anything like it, very likely would propel inflation to a pace requiring much bigger increases in rates.

16 January 2018 Not Quite Bondmageddon, but the Writing is on the Wall (Publication Centre)

The 20bp increase in 10-year yields over the past month doesn't live up to the hype; bondmageddon it was not.

Wall Street Journal - Britain's New Housing Dilemma (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs discussing the U.K. Monetary Policy

WALL STREET JOURNAL - Cheaper Oil Drags Down Business Inflation, but Long Deflationary Period Unlikely (Media Centre)

U.S. inflation gauges are sliding toward negative territory for the first time in more than five years. But the oil-fueled tumble in prices is far from the kind of growth-sapping episodes of deflation that tend to worry economists

9 July 2019 The German Economy Hit a Brick Wall in the Second Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's headline economic data in Germany were decent enough. Industrial output edged higher by 0.3% month-to-month in May, lifted primarily by rising production of capital and consumer goods.

17 Dec. 2014 Sentiment Surges, but Russian Rout Forces a Reminder of 1998 (Publication Centre)

With Russia and some other emerging economies now in full panic mode, the financial market story is sharply divided between two narratives. Either the plunge in global energy prices acts as positive catalyst by boosting real incomes and allowing most central banks to run easier monetary policy or it is a sign that risk assets are about to hit a deflationary wall.

15 September. 2016 Will September's Regional Surveys Follow the ISM's Drop? (Publication Centre)

Today's huge wall of data will add significantly to our understanding of third quarter economic growth, with new information on consumers' spending, industrial activity, inflation and business sentiment. In light of the unexpected drop in the ISM surveys in August, we are very keen to see the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys for September.

1 March 2017 The Soaring Trade Deficit is set to Constrain First Quarter Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's wall of data told us a bit about where the economy likely is going, and a bit about how it started the first quarter. The January trade and inventory data were disappointing, but the February Chicago PMI and consumer confidence reports were positive.

11 November. 2016 Eyes of Hurricanes Pass, then the Real Uproar Begins (Publication Centre)

Uncertainty about the U.S. economic and political outlook, following Donald Trump's presidential win, likely will cast a long shadow over EM in general and LatAm in particular. On the campaign trail, Mr. Trump argued for tearing up NAFTA and building a border wall.

21 Oct. 2015 Eurozone Now Runs a Bigger Current Account Surplus Than Japan and China (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus remains solid, despite hitting a wall in August. The seasonally adjusted current account surplus fell to €17.7B in August from €25.6B in July, due to a €7B fall in the goods component. A 5.2% month-to-month collapse in German exports -- the biggest fall since 2009 -- was the key driver, but we expect a rebound next month. The 12-month trend in the Eurozone's external surplus continues to edge higher, rising to 3% of GDP up from 2.1% in August last year.

7 December 2018 GDP to Stagnate Again in October, but Markets are Braced for the Worst (Publication Centre)

October's GDP report, released on Monday, might just manage to break through the wall of noise coming from parliament ahead of the key Brexit vote on Tuesday.

6 February 2019 Will the Eurozone Consumer Step up to the Plate in 2019 (Publication Centre)

Taken at face value, the retail sales data in the euro area suggest that consumers' spending hit a brick wall at the end of 2018.

Wall Street Journal - U.S. Consumer Sentiment Held Steady in Early July (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Consumer Sentiment

Telegraph - Eurozone slowdown gathers pace after Italy budget upset (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone Growth

MARKETWATCH - You should trust the BLS more than the Dow, economist says (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the U.S. Economy

Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson's mission is to present complex economic ideas in a clear, understandable and actionable manner to financial market professionals. He has worked in and around financial markets for more than 20 years, developing a strong sense for what is important to investors, traders, salespeople and risk managers.

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Pantheon Macroeconomics' Chief Economist Dr. Ian Shepherdson provides unbiased, independent economic intelligence to financial market professionals.

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